Re: Maybe the answer is that people are moving from base linux flavours
You're reading the graph wrong IMO. Assuming the frequency of search queries correlates with interest in each distro and assuming that the sum of the distros listed on the graph represents total interest in Linux distros as a whole:
- Interest in Linux was flat from 2004 to 2006ish.
- Interest roughly doubled around the release of Ubuntu and stayed that way for a few years.
- Interest in Linux has fallen and flattened out back at 2004 levels.
This goes against MIller's assertion that interest in Linux distros has waned since 2004 - 2005. It just happens that interest in his preferred Linux distros has waned since that time.
You'd be able to see this more clearly if Google Trends allowed for plotting a line representing the total of all the others. Unfortunately it doesn't seem to give that option (or at least I can't find it anyway).