Silverlight - Not perfect, but a huge potential developer base
I've just got back from TechEd in Orlando, and whilst I agree with the author that Silverlight does need ironing out in its current form, I wouldn't be as quick as some here have done to condem it to failure.
At TechEd Microsoft put in a HUGE amount of effort promoting Silverlight and XAML, whether it was using it with mobile devices, standard web, or integrating it with sharepoint etc. etc. I think at any one one of the sessions there was a choice to do something Silverlight related, and in the sponsors area Silverlight was being pushed by the component vendors.
Whether it is as "good" as Flash or not, the fact will be that in future service packs to visual studio every MS developer will end up with a development platform for Silverlight, in a famliar .Net programming environment. I don't know what size this user base is, but I'd bet that the avalability of the tools to such a large user base will go a long way to getting traction for Silverlight.
Undoubtedly there will also be some clever marketing/promotion to gain adoption of Silverlight (such as some high quality streaming Olympic coverage if I can remember correctly), and I wouldn't be surprised if MSN and Hotmail start using it at some point (as have MSDN in beta).
Whether it's another ActiveX remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be so hasty to write off Silverlight so soon given the backing and the developer base.