124 posts • joined Saturday 17th November 2007 21:05 GMT
It rules out old cars
While the Trafficmaster system (which has 100k+ cars on O2 2G) is a standalone box I suspect the Co-Op system plugs into OBDII on the car which is why Co-op won't take cars older than 2001 when the standard was made mandatory.
This means you can't go for anything low powered and interesting, like say a 2CV or Suzuki Cappuccino.
It's more binary than how many minutes are saved
There a massive benefits in doing business face to face. I've spent enough of my life on conference calls to know how hard it is to make them productive. Plenty of the real stuff is done around the metaphorical water cooler.
If the journey times are shorter people are more likely to turn up.
cool software bro
needs more hardware: a thumbwheel like the Sony CMD-Z5 and early Blackberrys had. Who knows we might even get back to mobes you can use with one hand.
The problem with automating things is malware
When an S3 sees the NFC sticker it automatically opens the web page. If you were unscrupulous you could fill that page with malware. if you were really unscrupulous you could transmit the NFC signal at way over the specified power and every Android NFC equipped phone in range would become a target.
Windows mobile asks before obeying an NFC signal.
Re: tesco mobile + tesco credit card
What stops them is that no-one wants to use it. I had the same discussion with Virgin - pre Virgin Media - about integrating their credit card and mobile offerings. They said there was no consumer appeal.
Perhaps they should put more effort into their software
Their HTML5 implementation of Words With Friends is buggy and slow. Oh, so slow. It takes several minutes to boot on a Windows Phone.
Re: That's hilarious
Or if you could have paid by pingit, 3d barcode, text message. There are plenty of technologies which would work without adding the the bill of materials on the phone.
That's how long it will be until the mobile industry falls out of love with NFC. It will not be $50bn of transactions Franco Bernabè forecast at MWC2012
(http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/02/28/mobile_ceos_against_the_world/), It's the next UMA, or Push To Talk, a fad the operators think they want until they find out that consumers don't and then the next shiny thing comes along.
When the operators stop wanting it - that is paying the manufacturers to put it in - new models will stop having it. And the banks will say "what happened there".
If Tesco which is a retailer, and a bank and a mobile phone network can's see the point, who can?
The missed story is Blackberry
People are generally brand loyal. there is a confirmation bias that they are savvy and bought the right thing last time, so for Blackberry to poll so low with the "Would you consider buying this brand again", is extremely serious. However good the Z10 is we've heard the story before with the Storm, Torch and 9900 and they have lost the consumer confidence, it will take more than one generations of good products to restore that.
It's a culture thing..
The expectation that everything should be free on the internet means people expect games to be free. What pays the programmers wages? It's what's led to the "freemium" model.
Re: Lambs to slaughter
I agree with all of this post except "1500 is a pretty low sample." If you've do any real consumer insights work you soon learn that 1,000 is plenty and you can get real data with a fraction of that. The incremental benefit of going over 1000 diminishes rapidly.
This tallies with my "research"
When you ask someone "what phone will you get next", the answer "I don't know" often means they do know and it's not a straight upgrade but they are having reservations about making the change. Those reservations are not about ecosystem but about integrity of moving contacts across.
I've been asking "what phone will you buy next" of people on buses and trains for the last twenty years. I guess I speak to around a dozen people a week. People used to want to move from the 3310 to T68.
The trend from aspiring to the next Apple to aspiring for a Samsung is long established. I think what comes next is more interesting. My money is on Nokia, looking at the retro vibe.
The biggest lesson in the weakness of ecosystem is TCOKR who thought BBM would lock people in. People have gone from "loving" their Blackberry to "hating" it. The emotions can be very strong. Some say they only stick with it because they want a hard keyboard. Most aspire to something else. Of course TCOKR did themselves no favours with dreadful devices like the Storm, Torch and to a lesser extent the 9900, but I think product is less important than fashion.
There is a well-trodden path of Blackberry -> iPhone -> Galaxy S3,
Many of those locked in to iPhone contracts will jump to the Galaxy S4 as soon as they get the chance.
The main driver for people moving is "wanting something different". Unfortunately most of the differences are software and to the vast majority of people that's invisible and just classed as "how it works". Of course them mean "how it behaves" and they have no clue or interest in how it works. The OS isn't a strong enough differentiator for most people.
They buy Brand.
The MKM survey was in the US where operator brand dominates. You can still stop someone on a bus or train in the US and ask them what phone they have and they will say "Verizon" rather than Samsung. The iPhone and Razr have diluted this to some extent. In the rest of the world the phone brand is very much stronger than the operator brand.
What is needed to grab attention is something that doesn't look like an iPhone with square corners. We need a thin, aluminium Nokia communicator with 9210 styling cues. The world is waiting for a phone with a keyboard which isn't a Blackberry. Yes, I want WP8 but most people don't care.
Just what I want
A watch that needs regular charging.
Doing swipe with your nose might be possible but pinch?
Here is a blog post from 2008 about the mess the Connect project was in: : Time Tunnel - http://www.catkeynes.com/CS00006.html
Name calling - They started it
The whole reason that we got the name LTE was that anything beyond 3G was outside the remit of the 3GPP. So it got called "3G LTE" specifically so that the could look at "4G", and ODFM without saying that's what they were doing.
There seems to be proper cellular coverage underground at Canada Water. I hope this is the start of moving beyond wi-fi
A friend sent my son a password by photographing his notebook where it was handwritten He did it because he was too lazy to type it but it strikes me as a particularly good defence against automated snooping.
Just what the operators want - Not
Another over the top player. Unless there is some strategy for the operators to get a slice of whatever the revenue model is expect manufacturers to be asked not to include this as a default when you but a phone though a network.
Re: Tesla: the ultimate in man Maths
They first shipped the Roadster in 2008, they have taken over four years to ship 10,000 cars. They paid Lotus for a large number of "gliders" (the carbon fibre body, and Lotus tech chassis) they never used.
If they make $5,000 dollars per car on the Tesla S, assuming a $50,000 (plus taxes) and a margin of 10% 200,000 cars. That's 80 years at their current run rate.
Even if they could do what has taken them over four years to do, every year and ship 10,000 cars a year that's 20 years. Remember this is premium priced car with only one model and almost no distribution or service network. The Only premium car in the top 100 is the Mercedes E-Class and that sells 200k a year.
At 10k a year you are looking to outsell the Ford Fusion or sell twice as many as Mercedes does with the R-Class (mm, always lusted after an R63). It would have to sell on a par with Porsche Boxster/Cayman, and I just can't see it doing that.
A billion dollars isn't par-for-the course in car factories, it's ten times what McLaren has spent on it's new beautiful state of the art factory.
The biggest danger however - and I think they found this with the Roadster - is market saturation. Yes, there is a pent up demand for electric cars, but it's a limited pent up demand. It's very easy to saturate. They might have a waiting list at the moment but once the demand is sated they won't see on-going orders.
Ghosn has bet the farm on electric and they only sold 26k Leafs (way below predictions) and 10k Twizzys, again globally with sales and service networks. And they lose money on the Leaf. Last year there were 1,000 electric charging points put into London to service 1,000 cars sold. And that includes things like the G-Whizz.
It's very hard to see that the demand is there for electric cars, and even if there was it would be very unlikely for a new entrant to win against the established manufacturers.
This isn't a tirade against the electric car, I've driven both Tesla Roadsters and Nissan Leafs (Leaves..) and they are amusing and interesting but at the blind faith the investors have in Tesla.
Tesla: the ultimate in man Maths
Looking at the Wikipedia entry Tesla has raised over $400m. That doesn't include another $465m of US government grant (although I think some of that got rescinded) and $10m from the State of Texas to build their new gull-wing MPV there. I seem to remember some Toyota investment too.
So It's pushing a billion dollars in investment to sell 10,000 cars.
If you are thinking about the products you are missing the point
It's all about distribution. Nokia has fantastic retail distribution, it's the world leader with Samsung in second place. I've heard drug companies complain that they can't distribute medicine to many places that Nokia (and Coca Cola) can reach.
A retailer in India makes a tiny margin on a phone and only gets three days credit. Nokia can do next day delivery, everyone else takes a week. So a retailer can sell a Nokia phone before he has to pay for it while he has to find cashflow for other devices.
Typically this is low end phone like the 1200 but when the cost of the devices ramps up it becomes even more significant.
People in India do want iPhones, A mobile phone is a significant status symbol and Apple is right there at the top, but the retailers want to sell Nokias.
It's going to be a race between Apple building out it's distribution network and the operators closing in on the "Over The Top players", by which they mean Apple and Google.
LatAm is particularly interesting, again Nokia is dominant, it was a two-horse race with Motorola but I suspect Google will have pissed that away by shutting down "non-core operations". At the moment Android is the strong LatAm OS, and that's keeping Apple out, but Telefonica is backing Firefox it a bid to fight both iOS and Android. I spoke to one senior exec of Telefonica LatAM on a bus at MWC who said he'd stop selling Andriod tomorrow if he could.
Bear in mind this is all about power over the consumer. How good or bad the phone is has nothing, or at least very little, to do with it.
Is that 1.5% figure annual or monthly? What's the length of a contract? If it's a 3 year contract only 2.8% of people can churn in any month. Even on a two year contract it's only 4%.So if 1.5% of people churn that's something like two out of every five people don't renew.
It's going to get a lot worse for Apple
The attribution of the phrase "Be nice to people on the way up, you may need them on the way down" may be in doubt, but it's value is not. Apple has not been nice to its customers on the way up.
And by customers I don't mean consumers. Consumers are the people who buy phones singly. Customers are those who buy in bulk, the retailers, wholesalers and principally the mobile phone operators.
If there was a theme at Mobile World Congress it was how much the operators hate Apple (and Google in the merging markets), how the operators feel that the Over The Top players have stolen their lunch money.
Ever since AT&T's Ralph de la Vega sat down with Steve Jobs and did a deal which gave the iPhone a clear run at the market the mobile industry has been pouring money into the pockets of Apple and the industry has had enough.
Their solution - Firefox - is not a good one but that won't stop the operators from doing whatever they can to move consumers onto something which isn't Apple, even if it has to be Google, and I see a rosy future for Windowsphone.
When I worked for Motorola, and we were making rubbish phones - a decade ago - there was some sympathy and support from our customers because we'd made money for them in the past. They still ranged our products and maintained a good business relationship with us.
Apple will get no such favours. The operators are itching to drop iPhones from their portfolios and at the first hint of consumers moving to the next new shiny thing they will.
Galaxy S4 anyone?
In the meantime expect lots of new marginal new products from Apple - the first sign of trying too hard will be when they start doing lots of fruity colours.
Generally there are issues with touch-screen phones for the elderly. One is that our skin loses conductivity over time so capacitive screens aren't great. Another is that there is quite a learning curve in getting to the dedicated apps. You'd need something that could boot into a senior mode.
There has been some interesting UI work done in the space, look for an announcement from Doro soon to complement the 740 I wrote about for The Reg last year. It's also worth looking out the Threedomphone work from the design company Ribot.
However it's a mature (er..) market in Japan and Fujitsu is launching another Grandroid phone with Orange France: http://www.fussfreephones.com/2013/02/orange-and-fujitsu-launch-grandroid-phone/
It's such a shame it's x86
It would be much more exciting for the whole IT industry if they had continued development of the Cell processor. Now (ARM, low end, aside) Intel has a clear run at the processor market and we'll see less innovation.
I'm not sure about whiskey, but it's perfectly fine to dilute Whisky, indeed it's a fundamental part of the taste. Many whiskys are sold cask strength and are intended to be diluted. What is heresy is "a couple of rocks". You should NEVER add ice to whisky.
Tesla is a confidence trick. Look at the hundreds of millions which has been poured into the company and the thousands of cars they have sold. Musk needs to prop up confidence. Top Gear did not apologise.
When 3G was auctioned there was significant MTR revenue.
It was divisive of the European governments to sell spectrum and then undermine the business model which supported it,.
It's no wonder the operators were more cautious this time.
I understand that operators have given some M2M customers assurance that 2G services will continue.
Are easier to package and reduce build costs. I hate them, them and electric power steering, the Fiat 500 has no feel at all.
Musk makes himself look a fool taking on trusted journalists like the NY Times and Top Gear, he clearly lives in a world where people say "yes sir, Mr Musk" , and when someone points out that the cars are not very good , or will lunch $60,000 of batteries if it goes fully flat, he throws a hissy fit.
He should concentrate on rockets where he is almost as good as the SPB, and give up on cars that only rich Californians want.
The next Tesla, an MPV is called the Tesla X, no doubt to capitalise on the Dragon X.
The feature I want..
Is a small CCD camera built in which saves a picture of the build at each layer to the SD card used for the model, then I can do a time-lapse based on layers on time. Ideally with the head out of the way of the model for each frame.
I wanted to do a round-up, giving some idea of future direction. The objet might be way out of a hobbyist's reach and the materials costs for it are eye-watering. Something that would cost 20p on a makerbot will cost £50 on an Objet, but it is where I think the future is going.
I really didn't want this to just be FDM printers but haven't enough experience of powder deposition.
I didn't include a rep-rap as whatever I said about them was open to "it depends on how you build it" so it's very hard to have an opinion.
The signoff is the important bit
It's not the Apple sales figures which matter, it's the bit in the copy which says "With Apple sales flatlining in Europe". The iPhone just isn't cool any more, it's the S3 the kids want
Go and have a look
Send LOHAN to have asniff.
There will always be a place for Blackberry
But it will become a niche player which is good at secure email. That's not important enough for lots of people who will favour "secure enough" and other things like NFC, Floating cameras and ecosystems.
Blackberry should build an e-ink long life email device and licence BBM to ONE android manufacturer to give them a point of differentiation.
Re: Size is important
It's not just the size, it's the massive overmanning you have to pay for thanks to the tube unions. All work needs two safety qualifications. They ensure than no-one who does any work has either of them so they have to be accompanied by someone who does. And no-one has both, so for each job you need two safety supervisors. It really does take three people to change a light bulb.
It gets worse, all jobs have to be done out of hours so everyone is on overtime, then there are working practices which means there are generous travel allowances which see people getting paid for travelling they may or may not do,
A job performed on the London underground typically costs eleven times as much as it would in a similar non-London metro.
This is part of the reason why "connect", the tetra radio system took twelve years to install a three year project.
Why restrict it to people whov'e lost limbs
I'd love an extra arm or two - Beeblebrox style. Then I could type, hold the phone, use the mouse and perhaps pour a drink all at the same time.
It's being worked on at MIT: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21628885.800-need-a-hand-wearable-robot-arms-give-you-two.html
Life in 2G
If you could get hold of figures for phone sales, you'd be surprised just how many 2G phones are still being sold. I'd quite like to see 3 using some of the 1800MHz spectrum they are getting from EE to roll out GSM.
how much is "less"
It all hinges on what O2 will take. it needs to a ~2%. This is typically what credit card companies (with all the extras you mention) charge.
But being a mobile operator is a 20% margin business. If it took off (ha!) the gross margin of the whole of O2 would take a dive.
They are turning into a US company anyway
There were no Finns on the stage for the 920 launch. The only person who wasn't American was Canadian.
Re: What is the problem
There might be a lot of 3D models around, but what is generally designed for use in things like games is often unsuitable for printing where structural rigidity is a problem.
I do however have some much more upbeat things planned.
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