Elop to be left to drown when Ballmer kicked out of Microsoft
Plan A: (Phone selling price) - (Phone manufacturing cost) = (Windows license fee)
For some reason, the phone manufacturers did not want to fall into the same trap as PC manufacturers and did not dive in head first. Selling phones requires the blessing of the carriers. Ballmer bought Skype and said all phones would use Skype to provide revenue to Microsoft instead of call revenue going to the carriers. The carriers rebelled. Ballmer could threaten manufacturers with a cut in marketing donations all he wanted, but that would not generate purchase orders from then carriers.
Plan B: Buy Nokia at bargain basement prices
His Billness looked at the deal around February and said 'No'. Nokia was so badly damaged that the deal made no sense. Ballmer took Microsoft's phone market share form 12% down to 4%. Bill said Windows Phone was 'irretrievably broken'. Ballmer will be running Microsoft with his hands tied behind his back, and Bill will not let him waste more money on Windows Phone.
Plan C: erm ...
Ballmer no longer has to power to bail out Elop any more. Elop has to come up with some plan on his own. The billion a year marketing subsidy depends on Nokia being a Microsoft shop, so Elop has a choice of Winphone, Windows 8.1 and RT. Nokia is not set up to do anything with 8.1 - and the margins are thin there anyway. Winphone support was poor (according to Elop) and will shortly be abysmal. The only advantage I can see to RT is it might make the board offer him money to leave quickly. That plan might not work - Elop fired anyone who disagreed with him. Nokia do not have anyone to replace him.
Microsoft's shares gained 10% when Ballmer announced he was leaving. Ballmer has done a good job of firing any likely successor. The idea of Elop running Microsoft was a joke. Microsoft's shares would drop 50% if they put Elop in charge.