I expect the stock to drop (at worst) 10% when Jobs finally hands the wheel over to Cook. Long term, I would expect Apple to more than triple over the next ten years. Maybe not the most aggressive stock out there, but in my mind it is a steady, safe bet. You state that a “next big thing” could “relegate Apple to obscurity.” I think you’re insane. If someone does come along with some “next big thing” (Kinect?) Apple will watch it, study it, ponder it, and release something elegantly designed in the latest smooth fashion of the day with one extra killer feature and a locked down everything. They’ll proceed to poop on the competition and go on their merry way.
Even if they only ever get 10% of the market for that “next big thing,” it will be the 10% of the market with the highst possible margins. Don’t you get it? They’re the Gucci of the tech world. They’ve made themselves into a “name.” They sell locked down shite in a fancy box and people with more money than sense buy it in absolute droves. They are a terrible company to source your gear from.
But they’re a fantastic cult. They are a fantastic cult and people are sheep. In other words…
…they’ve a license to pint money. But now, or wait for hte stock to go down after Jobs announces his final retirement. The difference will probably be a few % up or down either way. Long term, they are a stable bet.
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