This is all very well..(sixc!) but...
..for unconventional extraction to be viable, oil prices have to go high and stay high.
And, in the limit when it takes the same energy to get a barrel of oil out, as is in it (times a putative 35% efficiency of using that energy) its mo longer a viable energy source. What that means is that ALREADY countries like India are moving to nuclear power as coal and oil becomes expensive..
In short peak oil wont happen because of lack of oil in the ground, it will happen because its price must necessarily climb in real and in energy-of-extraction terms until other technologies - chiefly nuclear power - replace demand and consumption starts to fall.
What I would expect is that there will be perhaps a further decade of increasing extraction and then a slow broad peak followed by decreasing extraction.
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