Surely...
Surely a 100% risk of failure isn't a gamble... 50% risk of failure is a gamble, 100% risk of failure is simply a failure.
Who says there isn’t much government transparency on the riskiness of recent projects? David Pitchford, executive director of major projects, efficiency and reform group at the Cabinet Office, recently said: “We in the UK have a propensity to try to do things that have never been done before. Innovation is a good thing, but …
You don't get to be more successful by being better at predicting failure, and you don't even get better at predicting failure by exhaustive enumeration of possibilities.
Contracts should be structured to accomodate unknowns. Anyone who finds that statement confusing is in the wrong business.
I have done jobs for several "Project Managers" and I have often been asked "OK, worst case scenario, what could go wrong if we do this" to which the reply "a complete failure of the customers service causing a major outage costing millions in compensation payments" never seems to go down that well!
I realise It is difficult to forecast risk accuratley but to not put a major risk in the risk register simply because "it's so unlikley to happen" is right up there with "Andy, can you do this job for me tonight, it's a simple 5 minute job......"
Quote: “We in the UK have a propensity to try to do things that have never been done before"
Where can I see an example of cutting edge development in the UK, i.e. that has no model anywhere else in the world?
And I wonder what proportion of design/specification/documentation work is ultimately outsourced to other countries?
It was interesting to hear Pitchford speaking so openly about the fact they have no idea how many projects and programmes they have on the go. We also posted a blog article about it:
http://www.arraspeople.co.uk/camel-blog/projectmanagement/a-princely-mess/
Regards Lindsay