back to article NASA trying to rein in next-generation super-heavy lifter costs

Poor NASA: it's got a president who doesn't like its climate research and wants it to pay more attention to putting humans on the Moon and Mars – but its launch vehicle for that kind of mission is costing too much. That vehicle is the Space Launch System, a rocket hoped to be capable of one day hauling loads up to 130,000kg …

  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    James Hansen will be furious

    Who made it NASA's job to promote the AGW swindle anyway? Damn straight Trump needs to put a stop to that and get them back to what they exist to do, specifically extend our reach into space.

    As for NASA somehow managing to be efficient at it, good luck. No govt. entity has ever been able to compete with private enterprise for long. They don't seem to feel the need to do so, for some reason.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      Gavin Schmidt is NASA's climate alarmist now. Close them down. They are an embarrassment, using ground temperatures, instead of data from the RSS and UAH satellites!

      1. Tom Paine

        Re: James Hansen will be furious

        [NASA] ]are an embarrassment, using ground temperatures, instead of data from the RSS and UAH satellites!

        You lie.

        http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/05/comparing-models-to-the-satellite-datasets/

    2. Long John Brass
      Childcatcher

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      OK I'll byte

      If you are correct about AGW being a hoax, what happens? Cleaner air, a diversified energy production portfolio more efficient electronics etc...

      And if you are wrong? What then?

      1. Buzzword
        Meh

        Re: James Hansen will be furious

        > If you are correct about AGW being a hoax, what happens? Cleaner air...

        No, not cleaner air. In the great race to cut CO₂ emissions, we've been encouraged to switch from petrol to diesel-engined cars. Diesel engines produce far more local air pollution (particulate matter, NOₓ) than petrol engines. We actually have dirtier air thanks to the AGW movement.

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: James Hansen will be furious

          In the great race to cut CO₂ emissions, we've been encouraged to switch from petrol to diesel-engined cars.

          Well, no, actually. The push for diesel started long before AGW was seen as an issue, and was primarily due to production issues. The massive demand for light fuels like gasoline mean that heavy crude oil had to be cracked, at great expense, so many european governments played games with taxes to encourage the use of diesel, which they had more of.

          CO₂ emissions are a newcomer to the game, and NOx even more so.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: James Hansen will be furious

            Agreed. Diesel for passenger cars didn't take off in the US as it did in the rest of the world because gasoline here was relatively cheap. That changed with the OPEC boycott, leading auto companies in the late 70's to look to more fuel-efficient diesel. How serious they were about replacing existing engine production is subject to debate, but 70's diesel tech had a lot of problems, including much higher particuate emissions, that led to its failure (at least outside the luxury and utility vehicle markets).

            1. Alan Brown Silver badge

              Re: James Hansen will be furious

              "Diesel for passenger cars didn't take off in the US as it did in the rest of the world because gasoline here was relatively cheap."

              Also because the USA had a good market for the diesel being produced and didn't have growing unsaleable lakes of the stuff.

          2. Alan Brown Silver badge

            Re: James Hansen will be furious

            " The massive demand for light fuels like gasoline mean that heavy crude oil had to be cracked, at great expense, "

            The ironic thing being that gasoline was used for engines because it was nuisance byproduct of kerosene refining (for lighting), and kerosene ended up being used for jet engines because it was a nuisance byproduct of gasoline refining. :)

        2. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: James Hansen will be furious

          "Diesel engines produce far more local air pollution (particulate matter, NOₓ) than petrol engines. "

          not according to my VW ...

      2. Arctic fox
        Thumb Up

        Re:"Cleaner air, a diversified energy production portfolio more efficient electronics etc..."

        I entirely agree. Although I have my reservations about the scale of the human contribution to global warming claimed by some of the most ardent warmers I accept entirely that the measures that we need to take if it is true are a good thing in themselves for several other reasons. I.e. Let's do it anyway without bothering about the theology of either side of the arguement.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Cleaner air, a diversified energy production portfolio more efficient electronics etc..."

          Let's do it anyway without bothering about the theology of either side of the arguement.

          No argument there, there are better things to do with finite resources than set fire to them, but could we perhaps take the time to step back and develop a joined-up energy policy based on common sense, instead of the knee-jerk reactions of building windmills, subsidising solar, and closing nuclear that all get done in isolation with no clear plan for how we actually meet future supply targets?

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Cleaner air, a diversified energy production portfolio more efficient electronics etc..."

            Honestly, I wish there were a way to affordably convert my home tto solar and wind now, rather than have to face massive price increases for utility-suppled gas and electricity in my retirement. Opposition to renewable power is a prescription for future exploitation, but it seems most people are willing to surrender before the fight has begun.

          2. billse10

            Re: Cleaner air, a diversified energy production portfolio more efficient electronics etc..."

            " could we perhaps take the time to step back and develop a joined-up energy policy based on common sense, instead of the knee-jerk reactions "

            agree - but knee-jerk reactions tend to be big, public statements, which have an unfortunate tendency to win votes ..

      3. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: James Hansen will be furious

        If those upsides were possible then I'd agree with you. However as nuclear is a dirty word, diversified energy production just means overpriced diesel.

    3. MrDamage Silver badge

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      Yes, how dare an advanced scientific organisation, whose role includes gathering data on the atmosphere, and thus climate, have a science-based opinion on what is happening to the atmosphere,and climate.

      Let's leave it to the "enlightened" supporters of stone-age superstitions to tell us once again that every natural, and unnatural disaster was caused by sinners, gays, and children who don't go to bed when their parents tell them to.

      1. Fungus Bob
        Devil

        Re: James Hansen will be furious

        "Let's leave it to the "enlightened" supporters of stone-age superstitions to tell us once again that every natural, and unnatural disaster was caused by sinners, gays, and children who don't go to bed when their parents tell them to."

        Because they're wrong. Just plain wrong. Everyone knows the real reason for every natural and unnatural disaster is not enough virgins to throw into the volcanoes!

        1. Long John Brass

          Re: James Hansen will be furious

          > Everyone knows the real reason for every natural and unnatural disaster is not enough virgins to throw into the volcanoes!

          Have you tried finding a virgin these days? And do you think throwing IT geeks into volcanoes will appease the gods?

          1. Fungus Bob
            Devil

            Re: James Hansen will be furious

            "do you think throwing IT geeks into volcanoes will appease the gods?"

            What could possibly go Wrong?

    4. Mark 85
      Devil

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      First, stop looking at the possibility of climate change. What's next? Stop looking for anything more than 6000 years old? Stop looking for life on other planets because.. well.. we special, ya' know?

      1. druck Silver badge
        Flame

        Re: James Hansen will be furious

        Lets just look what NASA does with the results of its climate change research, you don't have to go any further than this very website http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/02/a_tale_of_two_thermometers/

    5. Flocke Kroes Silver badge

      Just out of curiosity

      Big John, the undisputed expert on all things Trump related. Which option would Donald pick?

      (A) Continue federal funding for the development SLS at enormous expense and preserving jobs in the Republican states where (Space shuttle derived) SLS components are built.

      (B) Propose a budget that would allow NASA to buy heavy launches from the lowest bidders. SpaceX, Blue Origin, China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology and RSC Energia are all working on rockets that could compete with SLS. This budget would effectively cancel SLS, but could be blocked by Republican politicians.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Just out of curiosity

        Sending taxpayers money to China or Russia to develop their launchers (and why Ariane is notably absent?) looks very, very stupid to me.

        1. Flocke Kroes Silver badge

          LDS: ESA heavy lift vehicle

          I looked for rockets comparable to SLS block 1, and drew the line at Falcon Heavy. The biggest ESA rocket I could find (in development) is Ariane 6, which will get 11t to GTO. This is half the payload (to GTO) of a Falcon Heavy. If ESA have something bigger on the drawing board then I apologise for missing them off the list.

          Russia is on the list because they have a plan for a big rocket and the US does buy rides to the ISS from Russia. As Russia is on the list, I have to put China on too. I am not saying buying Russian or Chinese is the way to go, but they are options to be considered just like all the other big rockets that have never made a test flight.

      2. phuzz Silver badge

        Re: Just out of curiosity

        Or (C) Pay for new TRUMP rockets, they're the best! You can tell because they're gold plated.

    6. Yesnomaybe

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      I am a bit confused by this. The insulating properties of methane and CO2 is a matter of OPINION now? I love this post-truth reality we live in. We can just wish away our problems. Yay, go us!

    7. Tomato42
      Flame

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      @Big John: Sorry to confuse your made up mind with facts, but over 90% of scientists that have anything to do with climate science say that humans are responsible for global warming (97% if we talk about active researchers). Over 80% of scientists in general say that humans are responsible for global warming:

      http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm

      The only swindle that is happening is Shell, BP and Koch brothers producing false or misleading information about AGW.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: James Hansen will be furious

        "The only swindle that is happening is Shell, BP and Koch brothers producing false or misleading information about AGW."

        - I don't know about BP and Koch Brothers, but last thing I heard Shell was firmly in the "AGW is manmade and we need to work to reduce our CO2 emissions" camp.. (Shell's take on it seems to be that we need to move over from oil and coal to Gas in the short term) or is that the swindle that you are talking about?

        http://www.shell.com/sustainability/environment/climate-change.html

        1. Stevie

          Re:Shell's take on it seems to be that we need to move over from oil and coal to Gas

          I wonder which oil company has leased prime "fracking" sites lately? Hmmmmm ...

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: James Hansen will be furious

        "Sorry to confuse your made up mind with facts, but over 90% of scientists that have anything to do with climate science say that humans are responsible for global warming (97% if we talk about active researchers). Over 80% of scientists in general say that humans are responsible for global warming:"

        Well, you can prove anything with facts, can't you.

        1. Alan Brown Silver badge

          Re: James Hansen will be furious

          "Well, you can prove anything with facts, can't you."

          When you start looking at the professions of the average "Climate change denier" scientist, you start finding something rather interesting - most of them don't have any kind of qualification that's remotely applicable to the field.

          People at the sharp end of climate research are worried that things are a _lot_ worse than they're allowed to let on. When they start pointing to where things are likely to go, they get shut down as panicmongering, so they're rather sensibly shut up and hunkered down.

    8. Tom 7

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      But Big John you do realise that Trump will be increasing NASAs funding - if he's going to create jobs for Americans then the best way of doing it is to fund NASA - every dollar spent on NASA generates 18 elsewhere in the economy. The best way for Trump to make america grate again is to use socialism.

      1. IT Poser

        Re: NASA generates 18 elsewhere in the economy.

        In 2009 the fiscal multiplier for NASA overall was 2.42. I'd love to see how that jumped to 18 in the last few years.

    9. Stevie

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      As for NASA somehow managing to be efficient at it, good luck. No govt. entity has ever been able to compete with private enterprise for long. They don't seem to feel the need to do so, for some reason.

      Government entities are not supposed to make a profit. They provide services that are crowdfunded by the taxpayers *because* they are fundamentally unprofitable.

      But I suppose somewhere it makes sense to have a private industry using taxpayer-funded facilities to deliver taxpayer-funded projects into orbit at private industry rates.

      That is, after all, how most government overspending happens: private contractor gouging and working behind the scenes to ensure minimum oversight as they gouge. Really Large Projects have other factors at work, and should be banned outright because of that. (NHS? Anything with "cross agency" in the title or document of scope.)

      I work in the public sector, and am often called to task by people who find out what I do for a living (I'm in a quite visible bit that gets bad press more than is strictly called for by the facts). They get quite an eye-opener (and an earful) when I "reluctantly" explain where the money goes, and why. The best part is when I tell 'em that they made the rules limiting who the government is allowed to ask to provide services from a list of The Usual Suspects.

      "What do you mean, I voted for it?"

    10. Stevie

      Re:extend our reach into space.

      Yes. Then we can go and ask the aliens living under The Cydonia Face where they stashed the Ark.

    11. John Brown (no body) Silver badge
      Thumb Down

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      "Who made it NASA's job to promote the AGW swindle anyway? "

      National AIR and Space Administration. The Space bit is about the only bit of NASA that makes the mainstream news. Maybe if you learned a bit about what NASA is and it's "mission" than you'd not look like such a twat.

      1. Lars Silver badge
        Happy

        Re: James Hansen will be furious

        Somethings about NASA and the usual suspects.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peL7Qecg3qQ

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPQGCnuWcqc

      2. Roj Blake Silver badge
        Headmaster

        Re: James Hansen will be furious

        Who made it NASA's job to promote the AGW swindle anyway? "

        National AIR and Space Administration. The Space bit is about the only bit of NASA that makes the mainstream news. Maybe if you learned a bit about what NASA is and it's "mission" than you'd not look like such a twat.

        __________________

        National AERONAUTICS and Space Administration

        1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

          Re: James Hansen will be furious

          "National AERONAUTICS and Space Administration"

          Oops, of course! I was thinking faster than I could type :-) Some people really annoy me.

    12. Lars Silver badge
      Happy

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      Something for Big John perhaps.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPgZfhnCAdI

    13. Roj Blake Silver badge

      Re: James Hansen will be furious

      "No govt. entity has ever been able to compete with private enterprise for long."

      Unless you count utilities, military forces, health services, and transport organisations the world over.

  2. Destroy All Monsters Silver badge
    Megaphone

    LETTER TO TRUMP

    1) Dismantle NATO

    2) No more boot-licking by trough-friendly Europeans eager to follow the US lead on "confronting Russia", "protecting Lybian women from rape", "Assad must go'" and "securing Afghanistan for the Taliban" and maybe soon "keeping Georgia free" and "making the free Republic of Molodova safe for pipelines"

    3) Reallocate money to productive uses

    4) Maybe it will work

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: LETTER TO TRUMP

      Dude, did you miss your morning coffee or something?

      Lets go through your points one by one.

      1. Dismantle NATO. Not a bad idea at present because the world has gone nuts. You have people like Erdogan and the Polish vindictive little idiot as a part of it. They are trigger happy enough to provoke WW3. I do not see why we should support that in that endeavor. This, however, is the only reason. Got nothing to do with cost savings.

      2. What boot-licking. The "friendly" Europeans which have Bear Baiting as a favorite sport need no boot to be offered to them to "confront Russia". Now, why are they doing it is a different story. You have the full spectrum of causes - nationalists who need "an enemy" as a part of the essential nationalistic "rule through fear" set, people who are on the payroll of oligarchs which did not get along with Putin and moved to Londongrad, people whose fav national past-time for the past 900 years has been "hunt the Slavic neighbor as we no longer have wolves and bears for a noble hunt" (ever since the Pope granted them a divine right to exterminate any unbeliever vermin while forgetting that the unbelievers in question happen to be Christian too). So frankly, from the perspective of ensuring that we do not go into WW3, withdrawing the NATO umbrella from them is not such a bad idea either. If you like Bear Baiting, do it on your own bill. I see no reason why we should be footing it.

      3. Money is never reallocated to productive uses. It will be reallocated to F35 and more Star Wars with the official explanation now being Iran and North Korea ICBMs.

      4. Oh, it will not. The moment Trump will diverge too far from the predicated path ordained by those who pay the bills, he will be impeached on technicality.

      1. Rich 11

        Re: LETTER TO TRUMP

        They are trigger happy enough to provoke WW3
        If Poland decides to go and shoot at a couple of Russian border guards, NATO is not obliged to support them. The treaty requires other countries to help defend against an act of aggression, not to be in favour of one.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: LETTER TO TRUMP

          If Poland decides to go and shoot at a couple of Russian border guards

          You are seriously underestimating how insane is the psychotic little sh*t whose brother successfully suicided at Khatyn by having his Air Force commander stand inside the cockpit so that the crew does not repeat the feat by the previous (fired for cowardice) crew which dared comply with a NOTAM notice and divert a year before that - they refused to land in Tbilisi during a thunderstorm with hail.

          Also, Poland has that one already in the history books. Just Nazi special forces dressed up as Polish and shooting Nazi border guards. It is called the Danzig incident. Food for thought...

      2. Anonymous Blowhard

        Re: LETTER TO TRUMP

        "The moment Trump will diverge too far from the predicated path ordained by those who pay the bills, he will be impeached on technicality."

        Or given a ten-lap ride around Dealey Plaza in an open-top limo...

  3. John Smith 19 Gold badge
    Unhappy

    The RFI for SLS and Orion is quite extraordinary.

    Orion (prime contractor LM, like the F35) and Boeing for the SLS have both had Requests For Information, not just to transfer "production" (as both are currently "development" contracts) but also along the lines of "If you wanted to do the job yourselves, what are you saying it would cost NASA and when could you have it available?"

    I don't think NASA has ever done something like this. I just can't imagine it happening for Gemini, or Apollo.

    It looks like LM and Boeing have taken the p**s on cost plus on an epic scale so large even NASA can't take it any more.

  4. allthecoolshortnamesweretaken

    You know, it's all about keeping your options open, really:

    Trump called climate change a Chinese hoax but he wants a massive seawall around his resort (in Ireland)

  5. MAF
    Mushroom

    Haven't we been here before?

    The budget for the Space Shuttle was cut by Congress forcing them to use the SRBs for the launch vehicle and we know how that ended (two Shuttles lost, two crews lost, fleet grounded leaving Russia the only way that astronauts could get to the ISS).

    Here's an idea: Make a Congressman a member of the first crewed launch and let's see how they deal with a controlled explosion (hopefully) that has gone to the lowest bidder....

    1. allthecoolshortnamesweretaken

      Re: Haven't we been here before?

      As I have said in another thread, NASA's pitch must be that Trump will need the SLS to build hotels in LEO when he's back in the hotel business after his second term*.

      Putting members of the house or the senate on flights is a good idea - you should combine that with electing astronauts. Didn't work too bad the last time.

      “I guess the question I'm asked the most often is: "When you were sitting in that capsule listening to the count-down, how did you feel?" Well, the answer to that one is easy. I felt exactly how you would feel if you were getting ready to launch and knew you were sitting on top of two million parts -- all built by the lowest bidder on a government contract.” ― John Glenn

      * It's a sales pitch. This would work way better than "Quick, do it before your impeachment".

      1. Pete 2 Silver badge

        Re: Haven't we been here before?

        * It's a sales pitch. This would work way better than "Quick, do it before your impeachment".

        Or any other ways that Trump could even more suddenly stop being the POTUS. Ways that make being El Presidente the most dangerous job in the world.

    2. John Smith 19 Gold badge

      "The budget for the Space Shuttle was cut by Congress forcing them to use the SRBs "

      A charming story, except it's not true.

      Step forward Caspar "cap" Weinberger, Head of President Richard Millhouse Nixons Office of Management & Budget.

      He set the fixed (or should I say "capped" : ) ) $1Bn a year budget, with no inflation adjustment (at a time of high US inflation), no contingency and no rollover of funds to a later year.

      This funding profile bears no relation to the pattern of large development projects (low early on, big hump when the long lead time stuff is being ordered, gradual decline as stuff gets made).

      That flushed any plans for a fully reusable 2 stage vehicle down the toilet of history. Only the orbiter + Mother of all RATO packs + Mother of all drop tanks architecture (dreamt up by an expat Brit IIRC) could make the project work at the budget they were given (a triamese might have worked but that was an even bigger gamble, and would have needed Von Braun grade management to make it work).

      Do you get the feeling Tricky Dicky didn't much like the space programme and would have been happy for it to fail?

  6. kmac499

    Letter to NASA

    Dear NASA

    We hear you're having a little budget trouble with your new firework. Sorry to hear that but we might have an interesting Plan 'B' option for you at a bargain knock down price.

    We've had a call from some Boffins in a shed on an industrial estate in Oxfordshire somewhere. They claim to have a nifty new idea of a jet engine that converts into a rocket engine, a bit like one of yoiur Tarnsformer film story things I suppose.

    It seems they've had some Euro-Boffins pass a slide rule (sorry calculator) over it and it looks like they might be onto something.

    Anyway our boffins are a bit strapped for cash and as you know so are we, so we thought maybe you could have a chat with Mr Donald and see if we can shore up the old special relationship with a cheque. If need be we could possibly throw in a hono(u)rary knighthood or something for him.

    We would of course like to keep a litlle Union jack on the tail of the damned thing, but you're welcome to keep any commercial proceeds if it works,

    Love and Kisses

    HMG

    (Oh BTW the thing is called Skylon)

    1. xehpuk

      Re: Letter to NASA

      I read somewhere that skylon would not be able to compete with a reused falcon9. Probably because the payload on a single stage to orbit will be very small.

      A two stage version seams more feasible and is indeed investigated:

      http://www.space.com/32115-skylon-space-plane-engines-air-force-vehicle.html

      Personally I would like to see something like bristol spaceplanes hope to make:

      Http://www.bristolspaceplanes.com

      1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
        Unhappy

        "I read somewhere that skylon would not be able to compete with a reused falcon9."

        Then you heard wrong.

        Planned design payload for Skylon is 15 tonnes, with a 2 day turnaround.

        "Probably because the payload on a single stage to orbit will be very small."#

        On a rocket based vertical takeoff vehicle you are correct.

        Skylon is a horizontal takeoff partial airbreather. That means engine thrust is << GTOW (it has wings) and air breathing gives it an Isp about 6x the best rocket engine propellant combination, allowing more of its GTOW to be structure. That lets it be reliable and robust.

  7. Pete 2 Silver badge

    How much have you got? That's what it will cost!

    The reason the (newest) Space Launch System costs so much is because that is what the american government with it's $ TRILLIONS is willing to spend on it. As each day passes, more people will add more "it would be great if it could do .... " to the list of uses, abilities and features this puppy should have.

    It is the same with all government financed projects: They take so long, there is so much scope-creep, the costs go up, so the projects take longer, so there is more time to make changes and to change people's minds, which increases costs, that causes delays and finally the whole thing gets canned.

    Probably the best thing that NASA could do would be to sell itself to Musk, or the big Z, or some other internet gazzilionaire. Someone who would get things done, rather than just building bigger and costlier versions of the same technology that's been their staple forever. It's now 50 years since the first Saturn V and NASA seem to be celebrating that fact by building it again.

  8. John Smith 19 Gold badge
    Unhappy

    "How much have you got? That's what it will cost! "

    It's because Con-gress mandated this and because it's a "development" project it's on cost plus funding (or given how these guys have gone, and this being an IT website it's cost+++ )

    Con-gress mandated SLS. Outside of Orion they did not release any funds to build anything to sit on top of it.

    BTW Despite NASA's profile in the media the organization runs on less than the DoD spends on AirCon for it's overseas bases (c $18Bn vs $40Bn)

    Or even what the US spends on home delivered pizza (c $27Bn)

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