back to article World+dog will soon watch 'at least 200 pr0n vids a year'

In the year 2020 everyone on the planet will on average watch at least 200 porn videos annually - a 55 per cent increase from 2015 - according to crystal ball-gazers Juniper. Of course, that figure does not account for every single person – with some watchers likely to, err, contribute significantly more to the global average …

  1. Roq D. Kasba

    Democratisation of the medium = less profit

    In the growth days of the internet, every bloke with a camcorder became a low-rent porn producer, producing thousands of hours of poorly lit, shot, audio video and starting up sites. Monetisation failed for whatever reason, and this dumped a huge amount of 'free porn' on the market as these sites shuddered their death rattles. A few aggregators were in the right place, most became sub-brands of the big few.

    They have the challenge of getting people to pay for something that is now free, they can't rely on dodgy dialers any more, all the streams that made Sullivan and Gold rich enough to buy West Ham are gone, Fawn (Raymond's granddaughter) has a property portfolio covering most of Soho, but I very much doubt she'll be doing much publishing.

    The ubiquity of instant, free films means there may still be money right at the boundaries - where there are still questions of taste or legality - as the rich middle easy ground has gone. A fondness for 'particular presenters' will help to a degree, but if I can see the wobbly bits of Hollywood starlets whilst on a train, it's not a massive deal. And males seem to be hard programmed to collect diverse sets as opposed to remaining faithful to one selection of pixels, so I'm unsure that'll work except for boundary cases anyway, and then be incredibly time-sensitive as their pertness sags.

    1. Doctor_Wibble

      Re: Democratisation of the medium = less profit

      Can't argue with much of that - though I would add "porn site in 'porn sites becoming more popular' claim shocka" and so much of it depends on who is compiling the statistics and whose definitions are being used.

      And suspicious me wonders if there's a stack of 'investment opportunity' pamphlets ready to be sent out to either fund the next expansion or to cash in before the government bans the entire internet.

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    everyone on the planet will on average watch at least 200 porn videos annually

    Does that include the children??

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Yes, but they only watch the Kiddie Porn, ooooops, that doesn't sound right does it.

      1. Lionel Baden
        Stop

        I feel really bad for chuckling at that one :(

        Shame on me, and yes i had to battle using Anon to post

  3. seven of five
    Coat

    200 vids average?

    Looks like the situation is getting out of hand...

    1. Graham Marsden
      Thumb Up

      Re: 200 vids average?

      Get a grip...!

  4. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    How will it get past the great firewall of britain or our conservative/labour/<insert any political party> internet overlords tasked with keeping us safe from free thought?

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Don't worry they are watching the videos for you....in order to keep you safe of course....

  5. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Only 200?

    Clearly some of you out there are not pulling your weight...

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Gimp

      Re: Only 200?

      I most certainly am.

    2. Banksy
      Coat

      Re: Only 200?

      They're pulling something....

    3. Captain DaFt

      Re: Only 200?

      "Clearly some of you out there are not pulling your weight..."

      Whoa now! If you're pulling that hard, you're liable to damage it!

  6. dan1980

    That's rather a lot of porn.

    I wonder, however, if this 55% increase is the per-person number or the overall number and whether it takes into account population growth as well.

    I would be somewhat interested what the current figure is for each regular watcher of porn. Certainly averaging out over the entire population of the world dilutes this, given many don't have sufficient internet access and plenty simply don't watch any porn.

    Actually, this shouldn't be to hard, so long as we don't mind being a bit rough.

    First, let's assume that the '55% increase' is in total views. Second, let's assume that the figures take into account population growth.

    Looking at some predictions for, world population in 2020 is set for 7.7bn, up from 7.3bn in 2015 an Internet access is forecast to be at 55% for 2020, up from 40% in 2015.

    Taking the 2020 population and multiplying by the 200 smut flicks per-person, we get 1.54 trillion views. Working back from the 55% increase, that implies that current views are at 995 billion.

    But what happens when we take into account the increase in the number of connected people.

    Turns out that, as there will be some 1.3 billion more Internet users in 2020, the increase, per user is just 7% - 364 views per year, per user; up from 340 views per year, per user.

    But, as said, not everyone watches porn. Let's assume that people from 0-14 don't and neither do those over 60. Wild generalisation, I know, but whatever.

    Using some available figures and assuming the same breakdown applies to Internet users, that leaves 61.7% of people in that age bracket in 2015 and 61.5% in 2020, equating to 1.8bn and 2.6bn Internet users of porn-watching age, respectively.

    The views-per-year jumps accordingly, to 591 per user, per year in 2020, up from 551 in 2015. That's a 7.25% increase.

    That's just using some readily available figures without much investigation so it's pretty much within the margin of error of when working with two rough figures that porn viewing habits will stay pretty much the same.

    I wonder how long this viewing is in hours, though. After all, if one was to say that people watch, on average, 200 Youtube videos a year, that might equate to 2.5 days of TED talks (shudder) or 6 days of Register Webcasts. Or, looking at my recent history, 20 hours of guitar gear demos.

    If we assume an average length of, say, 30 minutes, we get 12.3 days of porn-watching per year for those of age in 2020, up from 11.5 days in 2015.

    Given that this is still diluted by considering everyone in the chosen age bracket, the actual time spent watching porn for a 'normal' user is rather higher than this.

    Can anyone remind me what my point was?

    1. Doctor_Wibble

      > Can anyone remind me what my point was?

      Not a clue but it looked like a fair bash at making sense of the stats.

      Or possibly wild extrapolation.

      Don't forget to clarify what constitutes 'porn' and how we define 'watch' because there's that many autoplays going on even when it is supposed to have been disabled where 'watch' just means there were a few seconds of realisation before frantically bashing Esc or trying to find the stop button because the back button is frequently useless thanks to crap scripting and script handling.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      " Let's assume that people from 0-14 don't and neither do those over 60."

      Hmm - in the developed world the excluded range is more like 0-10 and those over 85.

      The extremities within that range are the ones who have hormonal urges but are least likely to be able to find regular sexual partners. With improved health in many countries they say that 60 is the new 40 and that group's STI statistics are booming. The older end of the range are also more likely to have time on their hands and spend their days sleeping or watching a screen.

    3. Grikath

      really not that much...

      Nothing in the trick-cycling is said about watching a clip/movie in its entirety or at least during its ...conclusion. So there will be a lot of flicking through clips before a ..correct match is made.

      A quick check ( For Science, of course.. ) on the site of one of the main providers, using the "most popular" feature, I've found that you need at least a couple of tries to find something..stimulating.., given the sheer vastness of the range in tastes that becomes apparent immedeately when observing the .. menu..

      So 200 views can rather rapidly translate to "once a month" , which I find a rather low estimate given the subject at hand, and the rather well-known ways of our Willies. YMMV though.

  7. TRT Silver badge

    Sounds like an opportunity

    for retinally stabilised smartphone displays.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Sounds like an opportunity

      or "wrist" stabilised smartphones

    2. Velv
      Paris Hilton

      Re: Sounds like an opportunity

      A whole new variety of selfie stick...

  8. Zog_but_not_the_first
    Childcatcher

    Won't somebody...

    ... think of the dog?

    1. Mark 85

      Re: Won't somebody...

      They probably did. But then, it's probably the same folks who thought of the goat, and the sheep and the... whatever. I'm just not brave enough to go check.

      Quick.. someone file for grant to see if the providers are serving this population!!!!!

  9. jake Silver badge

    200 per year per person?

    So that's, what ... 165,000,000 teenage boys + the rest of us?

    Or thereabouts. Back of the envelope & all that.

  10. Crisp
    Paris Hilton

    Some watchers likely to, err, contribute significantly more

    You're welcome :D

  11. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Adverts

    An "ad-based model".

    My first thought was where they would place the ads.

    My second, more rational one, was who would advertise on these sites?

    1. Graham Marsden

      Re: Adverts

      > My first thought was where they would place the ads.

      Pop-ups, obviously!

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Coffee/keyboard

      Re: Adverts

      What adverts? All I get is 30 seconds of the status indicator moving from 00:00 to 00:30, and then the porn starts.

      Also, I typically watch (more or less) porn all day long on my tablet, because I can, although I do have to mute it when I get a phonecall.

  12. wowfood

    200 a year on average?

    That'd be stepping it back a notch for me. Or are they not counting the rewatching of a personal fave.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: 200 a year on average?

      Also some clarification is required, are these full length features or shorter clips as and when required.

      but 200 a year, surely that's more like a quiet weekend... :)

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: 200 a year on average?

        My thoughts exactly. Because if it means 5min clips then I'm really sorry for ruining their research by skewing the curve so much.

  13. Anonymous Coward
    Windows

    It will never last

    After watching 200 porn films, they all start to look the same.

    Thats me, enjoying "Daphne Does Droitwich".

  14. ErwinJBaker

    This is natural because mobile traffic is now about 40% of the whole online traffic. Everybody is now buying smartphones and the number will rise. That is why porn sites like Pornhub, Fapshows.com and Livejasmin are making mobile friendly versions because the market is huge now and still rising.

  15. Dave 15

    at least

    While watching porn they aren't reproducing... we should encourage more

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