GIANT sunspot returns, bigger and belchier than ever before Sunspot AR12192, which thrilled astronomers and caused a little concern among technologists in October with its size and an X-class flare, is about to come back into view of Earth, bigger than ever. The sunspot has spent some time on the far side of the Sun, but that hasn't stopped scientists from analysing its activity and …
"Hopefully just a light show and not the nointernetocalypse."
Fingers are crossed for a monster CME that hits us, here at Ledswinger Towers. Then we'll find out how robust modern infrastructure is, rather than keep worrying by applying Victorian standards of tech vulnerability to our levels of tech dependency, whilst simultaneously increasing our dependence on this supposedly vulnerable tech.
My guess is that the power grids would hold up fairly well. Landline comms would have a small bit of trouble, mobile comms and broadcasting some temporary interference. And a few satellites might get fried, giving trouble for those dependant upon sat nav, or militaries using satellites to plan their latest bomb runs. I could be wrong, and we get zapped straight back to 1968, but if that's the case probably better to go from 2014 to 1968 than doing nothing and being zapped from 2030 back to 1968.
"Fingers are crossed for a monster CME that hits us, here at Ledswinger Towers. "
I've long had the habit to track space weather activities, as my life did, quite literally, rely upon decent satellite communications for fire support and evacuation support.
Much later, I still track space weather, somewhat out of habit, somewhat to consider disconnecting certain expensive electronics if a CME is inbound and, erm, interesting.
Still, one ponders about the US, where substantial parts of the energy grid dates to the 1920's, with the majority being 1950's technology.*
*Note to self: Do pick up a proper generator for the house, along with an upgrade on fuel storage. I suspect 5000 gallons will be insufficient.
But then, I inherited a petrol tank under the property, courtesy of my deceased father, who had trivial access to such underground tanks and installed one during the US energy crisis. He subsequently added fuel to it, gradually, as petrol stations required repair and the remaining fuel was pumped out to be discarded.
There *is* a benefit for inheriting something from someone who lived through the Great Depression. Most of it is hoarding, some hoarding is beneficial today.
"Whatever happened to the Maunder Minimum we were supposedly due?"
One giant sunspot won't make much difference. On the basis of sunspot/weather history we should be seeing some really cold winters, and that has been generally true for the Northern hemisphere in recent years, albeit with the jet stream able to intermittently flick northern Europe out of the worst of it. So last winter the US froze in the polar vortex, and Europe basked in shorts, but the previous two years Europe froze its nuts off with the coldest winters for a generation or two.
As a general rule the most accurate way of predicting summer or winter extremes is to look and see what is being screamed about the coming season from the red-top front pages and presume the near opposite (the Mirror is particularly good at totally inaccurate and alarmist seasonal forecasts). I saw a headline on a red top the other week announcing that winter 2014/5 will be the coldest for a hundred years, and on that basis the shorts haven't gone in the loft.
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"And all those asteroids will sprout baobabs?"
Sorry, but as one that was part of the advanced planning commission on life, the universe and everything, regrettably, the asteroids will sprout okra, in plentiful quantities far exceeding the total possible production capability of the Earth. The oversight and QA committees totally screwed the pooch on that one.
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