Re: They predicted there WOULDN'T be an earthquake
I'm going to try to explain why this is a stupid post.
But first, what Nature had to say on the original convictions:
"Science has little political clout in Italy and the trial proceeded in an absence of informed public debate that would have been unthinkable in most European countries or in the United States...The verdict is perverse and the sentence ludicrous. Already some scientists have responded with warnings about the chilling effect on their ability to serve in public risk assessments."
According to you, a seismologist can't predict that an earthquake will NOT occur. Correct. So are you currently holed up in a tent in a field with tinned food, Calor gas and a lot of metal water containers? Because they can't predict that one will not occur right where you live, tomorrow. Now, what will happen if six seismologists go on TV tonight and announce that they cannot rule out the possibility of a destructive earthquake near theSkipper's home?
That's right, panic. Which could be more dangerous than a minor eathquake.
The scientists did not of course say that people were safe to stay in their homes. They said that, based on the best knowledge available, there was not a high risk of an earthquake. But two things went wrong:
1. People failed to interpret the statement correctly. People are poor at understanding statistics and risk, and they did not understand that "not high risk" is not zero risk.
2. Decades, if not centuries, of corruption in Italy meant that houses and infrastructure in earthquake areas had been built without regard to proper safety standards.
The result was that an earthquake which would have annoyed a few people in Tokyo killed a lot in Italy, and the politicians and the mafiosi who were responsible and wanted attention diverted from the reason why all those houses fell down, went after the scientists whose hands did not stroke the back of another's, i.e. who had no power. And they were able to do this unchecked because the Italian media was controlled by the politico/mafiosi system, and the judges are also bought by the system.
I am not convinced that a similar cock-up in this country would reveal our level of corruption to be that much lower, but at least we would be likely to turn on the Government rather than scientists.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
