Analyst eyes Q3 2013 for Xbox 720 release Microsoft's next Xbox console will launch in Q3 2013 and, contrary to widespread rumours, will not be a download-only platform, one analyst reckons. "Although not yet confirmed by Microsoft, we believe the next generation Xbox console could launch in the fall of 2013," said Doug Creutz, a soothsayer at Cowan & Company, a …
Surely anyone can see that? The reason it hasnt taken off yet is volume of data in my opinion, but there are two factors changing this - 1, broadband speeds are increasing and 2, most games demand you regularly download several hundred meg updates anyway so whats the point in owning a physical disk when all it kindof is is a bootloader to prompt you to download anyway?!
The irony is, that its likely that someone will rescue Game, in the next few days, only for the market to change and for them to go backrupt again in a year or twos time.
Microsoft probably doesn't care about downloads; it'll be eyeing OnLive and wondering when the time is right to move to a streaming service. Get that right and a whole bunch of issues (piracy, retail, hardware costs) start to go away. Possibly even the console itself, except maybe as a platform peripheral/control device. Next gen may be download because consistent bandwidth isn't there for enough people yet, but the generation after that...
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^ Made me laugh.
However, I'm not sure what these analysts are on. Are they just saying 2013 now because MS have come out and said it won't be 2012? If it doesn't come out in 2013, will they revise their prediction to 2014?
I happen to think they're right about a 2013 release date (although I think 2014 is possible), and about the download-only rumours being incorrect, but if they are right, it will be due to a mixture of dumb luck, coincidence and the fact that anyone with an ounce of common sense can look at the market and see *roughly* where it is going as accurately as any paid analyst.
In response to Bonces question further up te thread, I believe the only differentiation between the analysts and the bloke down the pub is that the analyst is being paid and possibly writing his analysis down. Personally, I would trust analysis from the bloke in the pub more.
According to MSNerd - who is often reliable - we're looking at two boxes in the works. The first is the XBox Loop (codename) which is basically an ARM box similar to AppleTV but less shit and has a BluRay player in it. It's not a games console as we know it although it might play XBLA games and will integrate with Kinect for TV/other-stuff control. It will be dirt cheap.
The second is the XBox Next, due 2014 and that's the next version of the 360 which nobody seems to have any details on, except that it almost certainly won't be dirt cheap.
The model has taken off, it's well established and it's beyond proven. Steam is far and away the market leader in terms of PC game sales and as-good-as prints money for Valve, while in a stroke providing a locked-in marketplace, DRM, analytics and whatever other buzzword is FOTM with the management. Console manufacturers will be looking at that, looking at their margins, looking at their middle men, looking at the fact that, as of today, more movies are streamed and downloaded and watched on a disc and licking their lips with anticipation. If the next generation of consoles support read-only physical media it'll be with extreme reluctance.
Microsoft already does a pretty good job of kicking modded consoles off Xbox Live, but you can still use them to play burned games. If you have a download-only console that's dependent on Xbox Live in order to function and Microsoft kicks you off because you modded it, you've got a doorstop. Yes, there will inevitably be an arms race of workarounds and countermeasures, but sooner or later most people will just decide to pay for the games...
Pre-owned will die - developers don't like it (that's why some games have one-time activation codes or extras) as they make NO money on 2nd hand sales. Microsoft would love to take a percentage of the sale price.
Gamers could love it as without as many middle-men and expensive retail stores it could (and I'm being optimistic) lead to cheaper games.
We could also see more free to play games (like the iPhone) where the game is free but you pay a subscription or for in game extras.
Physical media - how quaint. Next you will tell me we will still all be using physical cash in 20 years time. I recon computer games will be one of the quickest to move to online only.
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