back to article Fragmentation bomb wounds Android in developer war

A new study conducted by IDC and mobile-developer platform and services company Appcelerator has determined that as Google's open source Android operating system becomes more and more fragmented, fewer and fewer developers are putting it on their "must-code-for" list. "We've seen a steady erosion of interest in Android" among …

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  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    an

    Inevitable consequence of the way Android works I think.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      FAIL

      FUD

      Remember Apple's claims of Android fragmentation?  You might want to look at iOS fragmentation, it's MUCH worse...

      iOS

      http://blogs-images.forbes.com/tomiogeron/files/2012/02/crashes-ios1.png

      Android:

      http://tinyurl.com/77vgzcn

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    so

    so many handsets, so many variation of android, so many branded phones.....

    No wonder, so why the surprise?

    1. Wize

      Re: so

      Part of its appeal really. I want a keyboard on mine, someone wants a tiny one, someone else wants a keypad on the front. Nice big array instead of one size fits all.

      It never stopped the PC market place. Various PC resolutions doesn't stop the average developer (and since the likes of Windows came out, no worries about the graphics driver either). Same can be said for various peripherals. You detect if they have something (eg a webcam) and give them extra functionality.

      Something Android devs need to think of. Ok, your first app might be a bit fiddly to write to do all the detecting, but keep the frame and reuse it. Probably ones out there for free to do that basic nonsense.

      1. jarjarbinks

        Re: so

        You're spot on wize.. the problem is in the mindset of all the noob android developers.. and I mean that sincerely.. there are sooo many developers that know Java now.. it being the #1 "single" development language in use world wide..that everybody thinks they can just jump in and build an android app. They find that it's not as easy as just knowing java, there is a lot to writing a good android app. Like you said, they need to write an app for the lowest common denominator, which right now should be Android 2.2 or probably 2.3 by now. Depending on the app, probe for features. The Android Market does a good job of hiding apps that won't work with your phone..but here is the kicker.. the Market app ONLY works if the developer provides the info needed for it to work. If a developer doesn't put in all the "hints" that the market can use to only show apps for phones it will work on, then everyone gets the app, complains it doesn't work with their phone, the app gets poorly rated.. and on and on it goes. And you know what the developer does? "See..it's due to fragmentation..I have to support all these different phones". Nope. Sadly, Google has done a ridiculously bad job of teaching android developers about these subtle but needed hints. So most developers, especially the noob "I can write android cause I know java" developers that don't take the time to really learn the platform.

  3. Destroy All Monsters Silver badge
    Holmes

    So is this like the Unix® story?

    Been there, seen that.

    Give it a nice common API to develop against, then.

    1. David Dawson

      Re: So is this like the Unix® story?

      http://developer.android.com/sdk/index.html

      check!

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: So is this like the Unix® story?

        It's not the fact that there is no SDK for them all (there is as has been pointed out), the problem is that as a developer you have to code for 6 different screen sizes (at least. And they aren't nice 1x, 2x sizes like the iOS, they are completely different aspect ratios too), those with and those without physics keyboards (the on-screen ones have to be handled in a different way), those running version x and x.1, x.2, version y, and version z with lots of subversions in between, those with and those without physical hardware buttons (like little joystick things), etc.

        Then you have to work out all the possible permutations of those combinations.

        Add to that that the emulator takes 5 minutes to start up and you soon discover that it is quicker to compile, package and deploy your code to a real device attached in order to test your code.

        1. Gene Cash Silver badge
          WTF?

          Re: So is this like the Unix® story?

          No, you don't. What you really have to do is write robust code that doesn't depend on a screen size. And I've never had to handle the physical keyboard on my Droid any different than the virtual one... that is what the OS is for.

          Also, the emulator doesn't take 5 minutes to start even on my POS Pentium D box, and that doesn't matter since you can leave it running and just redeploy as necessary.

          What the hell are you doing?

          1. Soruk

            Re: So is this like the Unix® story?

            Sounds like the AC is trying to develop on a netbook. Yes, I've tried that - AppInventor is SLOW on one, but it did the trick - and I had to use the emulator as the attaching of my Wildfire to it just didn't want to work. But yes, I was regularly packaging up my app, putting it on Dropbox and installing it on to my phone to test that way!

        2. tesseractive

          Re: So is this like the Unix® story?

          Go buy a Transformer Prime to develop on. AIDE is an IDE that actually runs *on Android devices*. Make your code change, compile, and deploy in no time at all, and run it right away natively on an actual Android device, with the real touch interface, real hardware, etc. Put the app through its paces, go back to AIDE to make another change, repeat as necessary.

          I have a Droid 4 keyboard phone, and AIDE works amazingly well running on my phone. Try that with iOS!

          Obviously if you have an immense code base, compiling on a mobile device -- even a zippy one like a Transformer Prime -- may not be your best option. But for many types of applications, compiling just doesn't take all that long.

    2. CFWhitman

      Re: So is this like the Unix® story?

      No, it's not like the Unix story at all. That's why using the word "fragmentation" is pretty misleading. People remember Unix and what Unix fragmentation was. Android is pretty much like Windows, except that it's slightly less "fragmented" than Windows used to be because the same code will run on different processor architectures (which wasn't true of Windows back when there were versions for multiple architectures before; Windows 8 will be more like Android).

      The so-called "fragmentation" in Android is mostly about different hardware, and a little bit about how many updates to the operating system exist concurrently on recent hardware. Similar issues have always been with Windows, and yet somehow developers learned to deal with it. It's funny though that even though the situation with Android is very like that with Windows we never really heard people accusing Windows of being "fragmented."

  4. petur
    Meh

    and

    for a big part, the fragmentation is in the heads of the developers. Most apps can be written against the older API and thus run on most Android phones. Tablets is another matter but not only for Android.

    Only if you want to use newer features of the OS, you start seeing a limit of devices you can run on, but for a part, that is also the case with iOS - not all iPhones run the latest version, so if you happen to need the latest features, you're equally out of luck.

    1. Thomas Davie
      FAIL

      Re: and

      Not really true at all. Android has far far far more variation in hardware specs. This can impact on devs in trivial ways (e.g. having to support every screen resolution from 120x80 to 1280x800) to extremely difficult to work around ways (e.g. having to support everything from no graphics card at all to Tegra 3s). Either you cut your available market, or you have to target some pretty insanely low end hardware.

      Compare this to the iOS world where you must support exactly 2 resolutions – 320x480 and 1024x768 points (note, points, all you do to support retina displays is provide images with 2 pixels to the point), and where you can rely on every single person with an iPhone in the last 3-4 years having at least a PowerVR SGX 535, and an iOS you're *way* better off.

      Note – this is the most commonly used logic in industry for not supporting Android, along with the fact that users seem far less willing to pay for software on Android than on iOS.

      1. Craigness

        Re: and

        Thomas,

        The tools google makes available for Android developers mean the problem of fragmentation really is in their heads. You don't have to support all screen resolutions or sizes, and you don't have to support all hardware or OS versions. You make the app you want, list the resources it requires, and the Play Shop will only allow it to be downloaded onto devices (or countries) for which it is compatible.

        There is no particular difficulty in making a single version of an app work on both tablets and phones (and TVs) either. Developers just need to associate UI "fragments" with different resource specifications and the market and the OS will do the rest. Unfortunately devs sometimes don't bother to do this. Hence you have the Android Twitter app held up at an Apple keynote as an example of why android is bad. It's not android which is bad, it's the developer of that particular app.

        Think of how a website looks on a 4:3 screen and on a 16:9 screen. That's the sort of "problem" android developers have. Now consider how the same website looks on mobile. El Reg is an exception but many sites use different UI on their mobile versions and desktop versions whilst the code behind it remains the same. Android allows devs to do this.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Alert

          Re: and

          Careful there Craigness, you are using facts in your reply. Fanbois don't like facts (and the fact that you have been downvoted is evidence of this).

          1. Jean-Luc
            Boffin

            Re: and

            >Fanbois don't like facts (and the fact that you have been downvoted is evidence of this).

            Craigness only got 1/25 downvote. You are up to 6/9.

            Craigness uses facts, and interesting ones at that. The same can't be said of your oh so useful contribution ;-)

            On a different level, I wonder if Appcelarator doesn't have a vested interest in playing up Android fragmentation, given their offerings. And I think those that have iPhone 3x might be leery in upgrading to later OS versions - I recall it being somewhat of a stinker when 4.0 came out. Now, I have no idea how big that user base is - might be somewhat bigger than expected with 3 yr contracts ;-)

        2. Spearchucker Jones
          Alien

          Re: and (@Craigness)

          You're right. It IS in developers' heads. evs don't have to support all resolutions, they can target specific hardware and OS versions. Absolutely.

          And yet interest is declining "because of fragmentation".

          There are a number of reasons why that is - and I say that having written apps myself, and having argued about dev mates of mine about it.

          The first is that devs don't like the hate dished up on a platter when an app they write that targets the median version of Android of the moment doesn't run on a tablet, or on a lower-speced phone. And you know how people jump at the opportunity to complain. The number of bad reviews because a specific configuration isn't supported is nuts.

          The second is that these same devs cane easily write as many versions of apps as there are Android/hardware permutations. They don't because writing an app takes time. It takes a lot of time. I'm no fan of HTML 5 but PhoneGap becomes compelling because it speeds up multi-platform. Mono and MonoTouch have promise. However their adoption by non-hipsters is also a bit laggy because these cross-platform frameworks sacrifice a lot of platform- abd device-specific stuff. You can only stretch CSS so far when you're skinning Android as opposed to Metro and iOS.

          The third is that there's no money in Android apps. Established iOS app brands that bring out an Android version cash in, sure. But the noob dev that has a good idea and charges for it sees it ripped off and re-submitted as a free app.

          Finally, there's a feeling that fanbois are annoying but that Apple's products ARE better. And that Android is staunchly defended by Google apologists. One particular friend who's written some successful iOS games is not considering porting one to WP. When I laughed and asked him why no Android I got a dirty look, and no comment.

          Something to think about.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: and (@Craigness)

            Spearchucker Jones:

            > The third is that there's no money in Android apps.

            Prove it.

            1. tesseractive

              Re: and (@Craigness)

              Clearly that's why so many developers are considering Windows Phone 7: because now that 1% or so of smartphone users have Windows Phone, there will be a ton of money in targeting them, unlike the paltry half the market that has Android.

        3. Andy Watt
          Holmes

          "Unfortunately devs sometimes don't bother to do this."

          Your outline of how to cope with Android development for devices is illuminating, but this one sentence is a giveaway. In the same way that iOS is a kiddy-OS (not meant in a derogatory tone, note - my Alzheimer-suffering grandfather can drive an iPad, that's my point), the way in which UI programming is done under iOS sounds simpler: two screen resolutions, simple maths for "retina".

          80/20 rule applied, do you think 20% of devs go for the quality approach you described, and the other 80% either fudge something which doesn't work very well under certain circumstances (hence some apps look awful on some devices), or do you think the other 80% will decide Android is just "too hard" and bugger off where it's perhaps simpler, and where the users buy more apps (sorry to drop that last obvious argu-bomb)

        4. toadwarrior

          Re: and

          The point wasn't that it's impossible to target parts of the android market it's that you can't deal with the whole Android market.

          Telling everyone that Android is bigger than iOS is misleading. It is but you'll never be able to target all of them and I suspect some developers are realising they can actually target more people for a lower cost on iOS than on Android.

          Also, as an Android owner, I know the system for limiting who sees your app isn't perfect but more importantly when it opts not to install it, you get some generic message that's not very helpful and implies it's a network issue. Hopefully that's changed in newer versions but the over all user experience on Android in the app market is a bit shit.

      2. petur
        FAIL

        Re: and

        It is INCREDIBLE that people have managed to write software for computers with displays ranging from 640x480 to way past full HD. Yet when it comes to mobile, they fail.

        Having written GUI code that scaled to various screen sizes, I REALLY fail to see why mobile developers can't? Hardcoding pixel positioning FAIL

        1. toadwarrior

          Re: and

          I think it's more that you can't even rely on certain hardware even being there so unlike a desktop where you can count on there being a keyboard, mouse, etc you don't get that luxury on mobiles and unlike a desktop you can't expect people to go out and buy the required hardware.

          If you phone has no camera it's always going to be that way. I'm sure screen resolution is a pain on phones (mainly because you are dealing with a smaller screen but it's probably no the biggest issue they need to worry about.

      3. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: and

        This is exactly the problem that plagues Java ME. For example there were phones that supported high end graphics via OpenGl ES and hardware acceleration, but most phones were just the run of the mill feature phones with really slow processors. So a developer could write a high end app but then their potential market plummets, so they write for the lowest common denominator. Now the same thing is happening in Android, if you write for the latest and greatest you lose out on the bulk of the potential market.

      4. CFWhitman

        They Miss the Proper Cause to Effect

        It's not really exactly that Android users are less willing to pay for software. It's that users who can't afford to spend a lot of money are more likely to have an Android device. A higher percentage of iOS users have already shown themselves willing to splurge on the hardware. I also suspect that there might be more Android phone users who aren't really aware of their phone's full capabilities, since you can end up with an Android phone almost incidentally.

    2. Lordkiwi

      Re: and

      However on IOS when you try to install an app that uses a newer feature you have the option to upgrade your OS. Android who knows when that option will come along.

  5. Anonymous Coward
    FAIL

    Meh

    FUD.

    That is all. It's far more likely that lazy devs can't make chargeable fart apps on Android like they can on iOS, because there are already free ones on Android.

    If you going to write crap, then don't expect to be able to charge for it like you can on iOS. On Android, there will already be superior free versions.

    1. This post has been deleted by its author

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Meh

      This isn't FUD, it's straight from the horses mouth. A games developer leaving Android because of fragmentation.

      http://mikamobile.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/our-future-with-android.html

      The conclusion drawn is that it's just not worth developing games for Android

      1. Craigness

        Re: Meh

        The "lazy dev" argument still stands. The case for the defence: all the games developers on android.

      2. NinjasFTW
        WTF?

        Re: Meh

        I have to question the article with Mika Mobile.

        I have Battleheart and think its a great game. It was basically the first game I bought when I got my Transformer.

        My problem with it is that it hasn't been updated since I bought it almost a year ago. Last update was July 14, 2011

        So when he is talking about constantly having to push out new patches etc where are they?

        The last 30 days graph in the market is showing between 50-100k installs at £1.85.

        That seems pretty good to me considering how old the app is.

        Not saying that there isnt fragmentation issues etc but this particular case seems strange.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Meh

          Question it all you like, it's straight from the developer himself. Are you calling him a liar?

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Stop

            Re: "it's straight from the developer himself."

            Also from the developer: "...my comments here are simply my experience. It is not a condemnation of the android platform as a whole. It is not a proclamation that things will never improve. It is also not a weapon to be swung in the never-ending holy war between fans of one platform or another."

            Why don't you re-read the last sentence a couple of times? Or maybe ask someone with a clue to explain it to you slooooowly?

            1. This post has been deleted by its author

            2. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: "it's straight from the developer himself."

              Why don't you keep your smug patronising attitude to yourself, or is belittling someone online the only way you an feel good about yourself?

              1. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Re: "it's straight from the developer himself."

                Hey, if you don't want me to patronise you don't post misinformed bollocks on the interwebs.

      3. Audrey S. Thackeray

        Re: Meh

        "straight from the horses mouth. A games developer leaving Android because of fragmentation."

        Fragmentation was a part of one of his reasons for abandoning Android, a subsection of the general point "<their> Android apps aren't making money".

        Profit will always be king in this - and plenty of people will find a way of making money.

        I have a Gen 1 iPod Touch and plenty of newer apps and games won't run on it - I doubt that is putting iOS devs off. If they assume it is okay to develop only for the latest & greatest Apple hardware / software then you may find Android devs doing the same.

        Both platforms are fragmenting but iOS is doing so much more slowly. In the long run this may not be a benefit as the Android devs will have learned to cope with this in a way iOS devs won't.

        There will be plenty of people on the latest version of any Apple platform but with each release some will be shunted a further generation behind as they don't upgrade - we now have three versions of iPad in our organisation - it seems like no time since we didn't have any.

        Apple are going to have to juggle the need to be seen to have the very best products and the devs preference to avoid fragmentation.

      4. Anonymous Coward
        FAIL

        Re: Meh

        A single games developer that nobody had heard of, where nobody wanted his crappy apps.

        I used to develop for iOS, but left because the approval process took too long, and I had to buy a Mac to develop on it.

        So that's a single developer than left iOS for Android, so that evens that out then...

  6. Mike Judge
    Stop

    the big question

    Who paidfor this survey, to me it looks like a Microsoft funded article.

    Android fragmentation is a total myth. A myth that Apple & Microsoft looking live to exploit.

    It's not hard to make a single APK that supports tablets and phones and the fragment system makes it trivial to make layouts that handle both.

    The fact well over 95% of all android handsets are on os 2.1 or later makes os fragmentation a total money issue and no worse than iOS fragmentation.

    You can also of course set device filters for screen resolution in your manifest and even exclude certain "problem " devices on the marketplace.

    A total non issue and just FUD.

    1. TonyHoyle

      Re: the big question

      Agreed. You'd have to be a pretty crappy developer to be unable to make an app that doesn't work on nearly all phones. It's no different to developing for Windows, or for that matter, any other OS, including iOS.

      Google even went to the trouble of creating a nice system which allowed an app to be optimised for both phone and tablet at the same time.

      Of all the problems I've had with apps I've written I've never had one that was phone specific - android is android, whatever it runs on. If you follow the app guidelines it'll work.

      1. The Baron
        Headmaster

        Re: the big question

        > You'd have to be a pretty crappy developer to be unable to make an app that doesn't work on nearly all phones.

        You'd have to be a pretty crappy developer to be unable to make an app that does work on nearly all phones, surely?

        Making an app that doesn't work on nearly all phones (i.e. that works on hardly any phone) sounds much easier.

    2. Blain Hamon
      Boffin

      Re: the big question

      Full disclosure: I work for Appcelerator, on making the iOS part of the platform, but if it matters, my personal phone is an HTC Amaze. I'm still waiting for Ice Cream Sandwich. My views do not reflect that of Appcelerator, IDC, yadda yadda yadda, and I should probably get back to work.

      I won't comment on fragmentation being real or not, it being FUD or not, because that I can't state from fact. I can state the survey was of the perceptions of the developers that use Appcelerator's product, Titanium, and may be influenced by what Titanium currently supports on each platform. But mostly, I want to clarify the purpose of the survey, and dispel beliefs that it's paid-for.

      Follow the money: Appcelerator makes a platform/frameworks that runs on iOS, Android, Mobile Web, and a few others that haven't been announced yet. That's the bread and butter; that's the money source. Nobody 'pays' for the survey in terms of influencing opinion, because if they want to influence company decisions on whom to support, there's more effective means. The survey's primary focus is to internally know how the company's doing and determine what other platforms to support/focus on; the actual survey also included developer opinions on documentation, SDK, IDE, support, etc. The secondary focus is to get media attention and free advertising by people covering the report. Whether or not the report is favorable to iOS, Android, or the Commodore 64 doesn't matter; it'll still get media coverage.

      If you want to be most cynical about survey-rigging, it would be in Appcelerator's best interest to indicate a cross-platform solution like Titanium is best. That would involve a survey showing all the platforms neck and neck, and NOT to show iOS taking a larger lead.

  7. Charles 9

    I would suspect...

    ...this is why Google wasn't as enthusiastic about Honeycomb as most people wanted. They knew it was going to fragment the market. With ICS, a version common to both phones and tablets, Google can start trying to bring the disparate parts of Android (especially the phone and tablet segments) back together (I look forward to seeing what ICS offers--though my phone's too old, my Galaxy Tab 7.0plus is confirmed to be on the upgrade track). Then, as older Android devices age, get replaced, and drop off the map, the common base that is Android 4.0+ should make up a greater share of the Android market and make devs more comfortable again. As long as Android keeps up this uniformity going forward with Android 5.0 Jelly Bean and onward the environment should become saner for devs.

    1. TonyHoyle

      Re: I would suspect...

      Really that doesn't matter - there's a compat. layer that lets you program using fragments right back to android 1.6 (although for your own sanity you probably want to start at the 2.1/2.2 level, since that's when the APIs really stabilised).

      The uniformity of ICS is the frontend - and that's mostly licensing really (a manufacturer shipping with ICS must give an option for all their crap to be switched off) - although the option to remove preinstalled apps is nice. Good for end users - google should have got tough on this years ago.. but for devs, it's business as usual.

  8. Mikel
    Windows

    I didn't expect to see this tripe here

    It's utter BS. The "fragmentation is killing Android" story dates back to when Android was just a few months old, and hardly had any apps at all. It has been recycling this whole time. If the story had one whit of truth Android would not now have 300 million devices sold, and 850,000 more every day, and 450,000 apps. Did the developers that abandoned Android over fragmentation these last three years make all those apps?

    And IDC as an authority? You must be joking. The baldness of the lie is right there in the story: half of all developers are interested in Windows Phone. For what, charity? Because you like custom crafting apps for an audience of ten? IDC projected 30 million unit sales for WP7 launch year -that's how special they are.

    Sorely disappointed here, vultures. You may as well hire on Florian Mueller if this is the quality of propaganda you're going to run with.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: I didn't expect to see this tripe here

      Perhaps developers are interested in Window as they see it as a way of making money. Having tried Android and not made any at all.

      1. Craigness

        Re: I didn't expect to see this tripe here

        It's so easy to develop and app which works across all versions of android and different hardware configurations that whatever app you write there's probably a free one already out there.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: I didn't expect to see this tripe here

          If there's already one out there, why bother developing for Android? People won't pay for it anyway. Let's make one for Windows and earn some money.

          That's the problem. There is no value in developing for Android

          1. Audrey S. Thackeray

            Re: I didn't expect to see this tripe here

            "That's the problem. There is no value in developing for Android"

            That would be a problem, I agree. But is it in fact the case?

            I assume some people are making good money out of developing for Android - am I deluded?

        2. Keep Refrigerated
          Holmes

          Re: I didn't expect to see this tripe here

          Well if it encourages any devs, I've subsequently bought paid-for versions of a few apps after using and experiencing the free ones. It's about hitting the sweet spot between quality and price.

          On the other hand, quality free apps like Titanium Backup come along - I bought the licensed version anyway, not because I saw anything I needed from the licensed version, but because I now consider it a default must-have app I wanted to make sure I had the full arsenal of tools and it seemed very worth it.

          I guess what I'm saying is not all freeloaders are permanent freeloaders, you may have to wait a while for the freetard using your free/lite/trial/basic version to convert to your paid/license/pro/full version.

          Also I see a lot of kudos and respect for developers who make their app available for all devices but then provide some kind of warning or list of verified devices and offer of support - usually this works well with a free version with option of paying for full. Much more preferable than simply shutting people out completely *cough* Gameloft *cough*.

  9. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    People buy iOS apps - people want Android apps for free. We would always code for iOS first as it makes much more sense (commercially).

    1. Andy Watt
      Thumb Up

      "People buy iOS apps - people want Android apps for free"

      Ah, at last - the core "fragmentation" issue. The fact that android devices **themselves** are cheap. Do you think there's a tie-in between the price of the device and the potential app store profits? Is the Play store (still sounds like a sex toy place) actually suffering from the fact that Android has a majority of owners who either don't care about apps (just want to do calls / texts) or people who don't want to pay for them?

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: "People buy iOS apps - people want Android apps for free"

        You're right. Google consumers are accustomed to getting great services for free: Google web search and GMail were the big ones for me. The advertising was non-invasive, non-animated and non-irritating. I don't recall ever clicking one, not even by accident. You can't say that for many other free web-sites run as a commercial enterprise. All it cost the user was some privacy, but so few users have ever really cared about that (lamentably).

        By offering these services, which I and many have happily used for years, Google now dominates internet search and takes huge sums of advertising revenue that come from that position. And as far as I'm concerned, it has earned it fair and square.

        Unfortunately, as an app developer it is very unlikely that you will ever establish such a commanding position in your target market. You either have to have a great product (that someone doesn't quickly rip-off) or leverage some other advantage you have in some other market (such as media content). And for me, this is where the free advertising based model falls down.

    2. Stuart Castle Silver badge

      I think that's the actual problem. Fragmentation wouldn't be a problem if the developers thought that they'd make the money. After all, a fragmented market doesn't appear to have hindered the PC. Admittedly, when the PC took hold of it's market, there wasn't much coherent competition, and IBM was still reaping the benefits of the phrase "No one got fired for buying IBM".

      While Android hasn't had that advantage, and has done an absolutely amazing job of building market share, one thing Google don't seem to have done is push the App store. Apple went from almost denying the need for users to write their own apps to being extremely active in pushing the app store as an advantage of iOS, even to the point of featuring several apps on TV.

      Google, for their part, push their own services. As do the individual handset manufacturers. No one seems to be actively pushing the App store.

      Google, TBH, only seem interested in future opportunities for advertising. Not in pushing developers interests. That may or may not be true, but the recent delay of payments won't have helped that perception. Apple, for their part, don't actively push a lot of apps, but they *do* actively promote the App store and do seem to actively protect their developers as a group. Something which Google don't.

      As I say, fragmentation itself isn't a problem. While developing and testing for different OS versions, cpus, memory sizes, screen sizes and graphic capabilities does incur extra cost, if they have the resources, a lot of developers would be happy to allocate them *if* they knew they were going to get a return on their investment.

      The problem is, they often don't know.

      Another reason Developers may be a little cautious is that iOS users are (in general) more willing to pay for their software. Getting your free app installed on 100,000 phones is a good thing. However, it won't pay the bills nearly as well as getting your paid app installed on 10,000 phones.

  10. Si 1

    Opportunists

    Looking at that graph the Android dip starts at exactly the same time that Windows Phone 7 started gaining. My guess is that these developers losing interest in Android are perhaps early opportunists looking to exploit an initially empty Android app store with clones of successful apps on iOS.

    Now that the Android app store has matured and has plenty of decent apps, they're off to the fresh pastures of Windows Phone 7 where clones and simple apps once again have a chance of selling.

    1. Lordkiwi

      Re: Opportunists

      nothing wrong with being the first fish in the pond, Gives you a better chance to become the Big fish,

  11. Jeebus

    Now now Mikel, this is an iPad launch window, so it is only fair they launch attacks on Android as well as inflate the rating for the new fondleslab, after all this site is the origin of the 10% Apple tax in reviews where no matter how good anything else is it will rank 10% lower than the Apple equivalent in its class of product.

  12. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    How many of those Android developers they asked had not been paid their royalties by Google?

  13. Kristian Walsh Silver badge

    Here we go...

    It's disappointing that the response from Android fans is: "this is a paid survey!", without any acknowledgement of the core point. There *is* fragmentation in Android - not all Android phones have the same class of CPU, the same size of screen or the same OS release. This is a consequence of its large market share across a broad class of devices. (of these factors, the OS release is the least significant)

    This diversity (if you don't like the f-word) has allowed Android to gain a huge market very quickly, but it also brings problems. Unlike iOS or WP7, you cannot just design for one size of screen and one set of minimum specifications; you need to address a set of devices, from cheap stripped-down phones to multicore HD-displayed "superphones". Multiple targets make development more difficult, and they increase the length (and cost) of QA cycle. For something that's most likely only going to be a piece of marketing fluff, that's a lot of investment. (Appcelerator and kits like it tend to be used by marketers rather than utility/games devs)

    On a statistical note, though - how is the overlap between "Android Tablets" and "Ice Cream Sandwich Tablets" (the food of the future, no?) accounted for? Also, more glaringly, "Nokia Lumia" (a brand of Windows Phone handset) is listed separately to "Windows Phone 7" as a platform. Um...

    1. Craigness

      Re: Here we go...

      6 thumbs up for this tosh shows the level of ignorance and hatred of Android here. It might be a paid survey, but the bigger complaint is that the conclusion is wrong.

      "Fragmentation" in terms of CPU is about as relevant as fragmentation in terms of the cases people put on their iphones. You don't HAVE to support every android device! If you want to write an app which would need quad-core then you are able to distribute it to those devices and restrict it from others. You can design for one screen size if you want, but you're not forced to, and the tools available make it easy to support multiple sizes.

      Can anyone add an OS name to this sentence which will result in a true statement about fragmentation making app development a pain in the ass? Android certainly doesn't fit this sentence.

      "There *is* fragmentation in <OS> - not all <OS machines> have the same class of CPU, the same size of screen or the same OS release."

      As a rule of thumb in flame wars like this one, if someone uses the word "Fragment" then they know what they're talking about. If someone uses the word "Fragmented" then they don't.

      1. Kristian Walsh Silver badge

        Re: Here we go...

        "You can design for one screen size if you want, but you're not forced to, and the tools available make it easy to support multiple sizes."

        It's really not that easy. The use of different screen ratios (not resolutions) is the biggest issue for app designers. You may not realise how many applications are designed using nothing more than Phototoshop, but it's very common for the design to be approved purely on the basis of a screenshot-flow. Often, for marketing apps, it's the marketing agency's creative team that designs and lays out the application; not the developer.

        The designers often don't know that there's more than one screen-size on Android, and so they will often just go with 800x480. This is a 16:10 aspect ratio. However, many budget Android phones use a 320x240 display, which is a 4:3 ratio and to add to your pain, there are both landscape and portrait versions of this screen size (HTC Chacha = 480x320; Galaxy Y = 320x480). You can't fit the same information into this format of screen as you can on the taller ones. Now, to add to the fun manufacturers are announcing "720p" displays on high-end phones -- 720p is 1280x720, which is 16:9; appreciably narrower than 16:10.

        That is what I mean by fragmentation.

        Even with good toolkits and APIs to solve the superficial issues (like scaling between different resolutions), only the most trivial UIs will not need to be altered to suit different screen proportions. And excuses like "but those aren't really Android phones" will not wash when your client finds out that a huge chunk of their customers can't use the app they've paid for...

        1. The Baron
          Happy

          Re: Here we go...

          > many applications are designed using nothing more than Phototoshop

          You say photOHto, I say photAHto. Let's call the whole thing off!

        2. Craigness

          Re: Here we go...

          If "the designers often don't know that there's more than one screen-size on Android" then get some proper designers.

          To support different screen sizes use fragments. Yes, sizes. It's not just about ratios. On a large screen you might want to display a menu and content next to each other. On a small screen you can display one at a time. If the Size-Ratio combination doesn't allow a menu and content to sit side by side then just show one at a time.

          http://www.developer.com/ws/create-flexible-android-uis-with-fragments.html

          Check out the images at the bottom of page 2 to get an idea of what's available.

        3. jarjarbinks

          Re: Here we go...

          I agree that it's difficult to design for all screen sizes. Any company that has a design time draw up a design for one size and then assumes it should work on all flavors did not do their homework. How you go off and NOT know that the target phone (android) has different sizes to be concerned with.. I would not want to buy the app from that company.

          If they are targeting the 800x480 screen size, which is the majority of phones on the market these days, then they should either also design a subset for smaller screen size, possibly as a separate app with meta info that allows the market to only show the small screen size app to phones with small screens, or at least draw up the UI for different screen sizes and let the developers build the app to accommodate it. The app can detect the screen size and adjust accordingly.. it's a little more code, but not difficult.

        4. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Here we go...

          Yeah, I've seen some UIs designed like that, and they generally work about as well as the rest of the app. If you're writing a form or something similar, use scrolling. If it's a game or something graphical, you pick a distance unit to work with and scale to fit. As for aspect, go look at how film directors deal with distributing a film in different aspects. I'm not an Android developer and I'm not sure of the graphics API, but if it's anything like OpenGL then changing aspects is one call to glViewPort. Not that hard. Someone here already mentioned web pages - that is how your app should work for static forms!

          If the UI is a rigidly-designed exercise in corner cutting, I have to wonder what is under the hood?

    2. Lordkiwi

      Re: Here we go...

      this resolution problem is Googles problem for now proving good UI guidlines until ICS. Now there stuck with millions of devices manufactures wont upgrade.

  14. Anonymous Coward
    Windows

    And now a word from our sponsors...

    "The fact that Windows Phone is increasingly a strong third in interest level, and the fact that we're getting some compelling Windows Phone devices out there,.."

    Really? The facts/numbers say otherwise.

    1. Phoenix50
      Stop

      Re: And now a word from our sponsors...

      No, they don't say "otherwise" at all.

      Windows Phone is here to stay - get used to it or "otherwise"..

      1. Stuart Castle Silver badge

        Re: And now a word from our sponsors...

        Indeed. WP 7 hasn't gained market share yet. However, it does seem to be getting good reviews, and in the past, when a product or product line has had a slow start, Microsoft have shown that they can be extremely patient while waiting for it to take off. Not to mention the deep pockets to keep financing it and advertising it.

        Look at the xbox. While I had one and loved it, the first Xbox was always a distant competitor to the PS2, but MS stuck in the market, and eventually came up with a console that has equaled or beaten both the Wii and PS3 in sales.

    2. ThomH

      Re: And now a word from our sponsors...

      I was working on the assumption that developers are showing an increasing interest in Windows Phone because Microsoft's development tools and languages are very nice. So they're interested in developing for Windows Phone in the sense that they're likely to play around with it because they expect it to be a pleasant experience and because learning additional platforms and languages never hurts.

      They're probably also optimistic that a sufficiently large market will appear for it to be worth releasing products. We're probably only talking about something minor like a 10% share for the sort of apps that are not in themselves directly profitable (Facebook, DropBox, other service front ends, anything promotional or sponsored) to be worthwhile to port, and that wouldn't exactly disturb the Android freight train.

      So, no, I don't think developer interest need always be a trailing indicator of market share. Indeed it's almost the only way I can make sense of the survey.

  15. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Statistics

    "the study surveyed 2,173 of the 280,000 developers using Appcelerator's mobile development platform ..... To dig deeper a follow-up survey of 484 of the original respondents was conducted"

    I'm no statistician, but can you really gain any useful results by surveying less than 1% of the devs, then going back for more information and only surveying 0.002% ?? Seems a bit of a stretch to me...

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Statistics

      Actually you can, that's what statistics are all about.

      Ask 10% more and the figures could be better or worse.

      The proof will materialise in 5 to 10 years and we will see if shit sandwich .10 still has apps

      1. Harky
        FAIL

        Re: Statistics

        Not really.

        If you want to provide "believable" statistic, your sampling must be adequate to represent the population you are targeting , which is not the case in this in survey.

        Showing up what 0.01% of all the developers' favorite dev platform is, is very negligible and means only what this tiny tiny subset favored most. It is far from the real picture.

      2. Harky
        Stop

        Re: Statistics

        Then you understand well why this isn't not a good representation of what the whole group of devs think. If 10% more surveyed people can mean good or bad, this can make the difference in reporting the truth or not.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Statistics

      Hmm.. replace 0.002% with 0.2% :)

    3. jarjarbinks

      Re: Statistics

      Haha..I thought this very same thing! However, 280,000 devs is about 5% of the total android developer community. There are millions of android developers (or wannabe's anyway) trying to break in to the market. Makes me wonder if this is some ploy by an apple employee to make android look bad..but then my long post about why this fragmentation is happening would counter this sentence. ;)

  16. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    hah hah hah

    Look at all the android fanbois sticking their fingers in their ears, closing their eyes and hoping the 'problem' will go away.

    But, but, but android is Linux so it must be good and people must love it!!!!

    The reality is that android is a buggy, fragmented, insecure abomination of an OS with a terrible UI. The only reason it was ever succesful was because it cheap and the reason it was cheap is because it was basically a copy of iOS. And copying other peoples ideas costs less money than innovating.

    I cannot wait until android dies. Should not be long now....

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: hah hah hah

      Although in agreement I have downvoted you for being childish and triumphalist in your tone.

      1. Dinky Carter

        Re: hah hah hah

        Well said. I too agree with Mr Hah Hah Hah but still think he's a prat.

        As for Android's fragmentation; we code for iOS and Android here, and the main problem isn't that Android's UI or screen size is fragmented, but that some things just don't work properly on certain Android releases, or even different handsets using the same release. A bit like the fragmented mess that is HTML development (shudders...)

    2. Alex Rose
      FAIL

      Re: hah hah hah

      If it is basically a copy of iOS and it has a "terrible UI" I take it that means you think iOS has a terrible UI?

    3. Alex Rose
      WTF?

      Re: hah hah hah

      "I cannot wait until android dies."

      I didn't spot this at first because of your massive fail over the UI/iOS comparison, but seriously, if you actually "cannot wait" until a mobile phone/tablet operating system dies do you not think that you should get out of the house, go take a walk in the sun, listen to the sound of children playing in a park, smell the early spring flowers and get a little perspective?

      Or get some therapy.

    4. NinjasFTW
      Flame

      Re: hah hah hah

      gah i know im feeding a troll but I had to laugh when the latest IOS update landed on my G/f iphone 4 and it had the drop down notifcation bar thats been on my Android phone for over a year....

      copying indeed

    5. min

      Re: hah hah hah

      you, sir, are a funny, funny man.

      now make sure you've taken your pills next time.

    6. magnetik
      FAIL

      Re: hah hah hah

      Basically a copy of iOS? One's based on FreeBSD and apps are written in objective C, the other is a form of Linux with apps written in Java. Next you'll tell us Windows Phone is basically a copy of iOS.

    7. jarjarbinks

      Re: hah hah hah

      Why anyone would agree with this moron is beyond me. So what you're saying is you want apple to be the only thing out there.. no competition? Watch how fast apple goes from their minor yearly updates now to something every 3+ years when they have nothing pushing them to be better.

      copy? ROFL.. as many already said, apple copied too, on many occasions. Copying is a form of flattery is it not? Besides, there are only so many ways you can make a touch screen do something. So if they had triangular icons that required a hard touch then a swipe to execute, would that make you happy? Oh wait.. apple apparently invented swipe too.. so that's copying as well. I got it.. all android devices should have cameras that know exactly what your looking at..then you blink.. and it runs. MS phones will need to do something else..they already have Kinect technology.. so perhaps they need to invent the brain receiver..you think it, and their phones will execute the app. Now that is fair right? That way nobody copied poor apple.. the company that after years of massive profits is finally giving a little bit back to the stock holders and continues to waste billions on trying to stop competition rather than compete fairly. Yah..that's the company I want to give my money to.

  17. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Further Fragmentation

    When Samsung forks it or puts an emulator in Baidu

  18. Dan 55 Silver badge
    WTF?

    Nokia Lumia = Windows Phone 7

    I trust this survey as much as I'd trust one which asks if people want to develop for a HP laptop with Windows 7 or Windows 7.

  19. dotdavid
    Meh

    Hmm

    Maybe app developers are starting to cool to Android now there is a mature market and no easy wins, but I reckon as long as the userbase is there the big name apps will always be available on Android - supposed fragmentation or not.

    1. Ian 16

      Re: Hmm

      on certain models only and on the last two releases of that OS ...

      thats my bet sadly :(

  20. ad2apps
    Pint

    Tried Android

    Well I tried android dev through the Eclipse plugin and gave up as it was crap , very slow and cumbersome. I shall stick to Blackberry and Nokia java development where i can write the same app and can be used on both types of phones. Blackberries OS and Symbian3 are far better OS's both work well and apps can be easilty written for both. Although I shall probably have to learn c# so that i can write apps for windows phone seeing as they don't support java !.

  21. SwitchDon
    Holmes

    Who's paying for this survey?

    Appcelerator make Titanium which is a Javascript based cross platform mobile SDK that is meant to replace native solutions such as Android, iOS, Windows mobile, Blackberry.

    They're hardly going to put their name behind a survey that says "Isn't Android brilliant?" are they?

  22. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I wrote the hah hah hah post

    Seriously guys, it is just a web forum!!! Do not take it so seriously!!! We write posts for the LOLs. Whilst I am gratified that most of you agree that Android is a heap of crap, the reality is that it was an OK'ish mobile OS. It has been superseded by Apple and MS over the course of the last couple of years, but it was OK when they first launched it. It does still have a use though, which is to provide companies like Amazon with a bare bones mobile OS upon which they can actually build a reasonable, commercial, user experience, free from bugs, viruses and google ‘designed’ UIs. It will flourish in thiss pace. However, the Amazon ‘version’ of Android will be completely different from the Sony ‘version’ of Android which will be different from the Barnes & Noble ‘version’ of Android. And the two funniest things? 1) Google will be making no add revenue from spying on the people using their miracle OS and 2) Microsoft will be making $5 per a unit or whatever it is they charge. It is a funny old world eh?

    1. Audrey S. Thackeray

      Re: I wrote the hah hah hah post

      " I wrote the hah hah hah post"

      I used to have an incontinent puppy. It knew it wasn't supposed to shit in the house but it did anyway.

      I'd get home to find it next to a stinking pile of its own doings looking at it sadly, clearly owning up to me that it was responsible.

      And I used to think "It's pretty bloody obvious who did it, you idiot; rather than confessing how about you just stop shitting everywhere in the first place?"

      It wouldn't have understood, of course.

    2. Harky
      FAIL

      Re: I wrote the hah hah hah post

      Android is crap... then Linux is crap too, right?

  23. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I am somebody's total lack of surprise

    Because handset and browser manufacturers are putting all their effort into HTML5 applications, everyone wants cross platform solutions.

    Because there's just been a new ipad and the new iphone will be this year, whereas ice cream sandwich has started to melt.

    Because people don't want to sit in the Google camp now the chocolate is being made from sour milk.

    Because the "business world" is going to dump Blackberry for Microsoft like they always do.

    Because we're all fickle and want NEW toys.

  24. Charlie Clark Silver badge

    Cross-platform = web?

    In one of his better articles a while back Matt Asay suggested that the future of app development would be HTML 5 & JS. The stats seem to be backing that up. Not good news for cross-platform systems like Appcelerator but it makes more sense for developers.

  25. JeffinLondon

    79% vs 89%

    Let's see... 79% of app developers are happy with Android vs 89% for iOS.

    Not a huge difference it seems to me, so that makes the headline pure link bait.

    For shame...

  26. Magnus_Pym

    Quality Apps?

    The problem is not how many apps are being developed but how good are the apps being developed. This is more problematic as it requires some assessment of quality as well as usefulness and profitability. How many of these developers are writing on genuinely new stuff and how many are just repackaging? How many are breaking new ground and how many are developing a front end for an existing retailer/manufacture/advertiser/coupon pusher/etc.

    The 'early adopters' on any platform will, by definition, pay more for more apps of dubious quality: those who adopt expensive stuff doubly so. As the platform matures the early adopters move on and the easy money moves with them. Of course developers follow the money. Of course there are more developers of esoteric apps looking at newer platforms; it's a less crowded selling space.

    As far as I can see this is not developers leaving sinking ships but critical mass having been achieved.

  27. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I wrote the hah hah hah post

    Liar! IT was me! I did it because I believe strongly that fragmentation will kill android! You humourless fandroids will also fragment! Limbs will fall off.. Sorry, better ad a spelling mistake so it looks more genuine!

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: I wrote the hah hah hah post

      I'm Mr Hah Hah Hah and so is my wife!

  28. Paul Shirley

    Appcelerator must be shit

    A cross platform tool that can't handle the relatively minor differences between Android devices?

    Even the nastiest source of actual programming problems (3D - thanks to multiple chipsets and broken proprietary drivers...) is traditionally solved by using a middleware layer... so either devs aren't seeing this actual problem OR (and more likely) Appcelerator isn't being used for affected types of app. Or maybe it's just crap at that job.

    In reality only game writers will experience these problems and game writers have faced 30+ years of dealing with exactly the same problems on most released platforms. I remember when Sony changed the RAM timing on the original Playstation and the relief that our game suffered no ill effects, even the supposedly 'locked down' consoles aren't immune.

    Android is losing some dev interest because Android users don't throw their money at devs as easily as IOS users, other causes are just minor irritants - irritants middleware like Appcelerator are supposed to avoid!

  29. Richard Wharram

    And yet...

    The fragmented DOS and Windows PC platform trounced the more controlled Mac platform back in the day. Fragmentation or lack of plays only a small part in the success of a platform.

  30. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Not developing apps for android

    I personally just dont like Java. So many APIs to tap into though with the Android, unlike the iOS...

  31. Alan_
    FAIL

    Fragmentation non-issue?

    For everyone stating as fact that fragmentation is a non-issue and developers are just lazy - how many android applications have you released and how many android platforms have you tried supporting?

    Case in point, one major distributor of android based devices had a custom patch to their kernel which forcibly killed applications after X number of signals were received. This particular (broken) change meant that many applications *could not run* on any phone running that kernel as the applications emitted that signal as part of normal execution.

    Sure, it's possible to work around each and every issue you come across on each and every device with each and every kernel modification, or base software modification, with the dozens of different gpus, cpus, RAM combinations to have a decent game (or whatever) which is reasonably performant across the board. However it's just not worth it as can be seen by the results of the survey.

  32. Jeff 11

    The question isn't about the capabilities of developers or Android; it's just that there are a collection of issues with Android development that make it harder to monetize, for the *same amount of effort*, on Android than iOS. I don't develop mobile apps myself, but the fragmentation problem of various app stores and device capabilities means you have to maintain multiple versions (for each class of devices you want to support) of the same app (in each app store) to access the whole of the Android market.

    Yes, you can automate deployment and make dev processes between versions more efficient to reduce this complexity, but implementing and using these processes cost time and money (and perhaps skills) that you simply don't need in Apple's cosy walled garden.

    But I reckon fragmentation is only half of the problem. The whole iTunes account integration makes impulse buys for apps and in-app content much easier to extract from your customers. This has been around for much much longer than Google's equivalent mechanism. Ultimately if you show businesses that they can make more money, more quickly on your platform, they'll quite happily sacrifice its less profitable counterparts.

    1. This post has been deleted by its author

    2. Craigness
      Facepalm

      "you have to maintain multiple versions (for each class of devices you want to support)..."

      No. One version suits all devices

      --

      "...of the same app (in each app store) to access the whole of the Android market."

      No. One version can be uploaded to all app stores and 2 of them pretty much cover the whole market.

      --

      " I don't develop mobile apps myself"

      I'd never have guessed!

      --

      Having to upload to as many as 2 different markets definitely kills android. Do you remember the days before online content delivery? And the period when CD-ROM was taking over from floppy disk? Back in that time people had to provide software through myriad bricks and mortar shops in 2 different physical formats. Even magazines had to offer 2 different versions to provide free software to their readers. It's no wonder absolutely nobody on the planet wrote a single line of code or published a computer magazine back then. Oh, wait...

  33. gcarter

    Who Cares

    From a user perspective, who cares! Just ride the android gravy train as long as you can, and when something better / more popular comes along... jump ship!

    Although saying that, where the frig is the tomtom satnav app for android!

    Friggin apple fan boyz win this time!

  34. AnonymousNow
    Thumb Down

    Speculating over android's prospective drop to single digits developer interest when it is now at about 80%??? LOL, did Apple write this? Seriously guys, sometimes you piss me off-- and I have both IOS5 and android devices.

  35. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I'm new to developing Android apps (I started a few months ago). But the first thing I noticed is that it's so easy to support as big or small a range of Android devices as you wish. Given the stories I'd read, I wasn't prepared for that to be the case. For me, this story says a lot about the quality of Appcelerator (which I admittedly haven't tried) and barely anything about Android. As such, stories like this have the potential to be a lot more damaging than 'fragmentation'.

    I notice a few things that could put devs off: A lot of users complain about permissions - it would be nice if there was a standard listng for each app to display the permissions along with what they're used for and why. There's also a very vocal group who want apps to have no permissions, no ads, and no price. Clearly, they need to get learning Java. It's also interesting that a single dev releasing an app for a dollar is expected to throw out a lot more updates even if the app runs perfectly than say Adobe, who'll release something at $10, have it full of bugs and never patch them.

    But is the time I've spent on developing plus the extra hassles worth the income? Most definitely.

  36. jarjarbinks

    Google, device manufacturers and developers are all the problem

    It's quite simple really. Android, the platform is not fragmented. You can write an android app that will run, with no problems, on every phone out there (or just about) from those of 2+ years ago to the latest. But.. and this leads to my title.. Google did a piss poor job teaching developers about all the hints needed for the market to make sure that an app only shows up for a phone it will work on. More so, Google failed miserably about making sure every manufacturer provides solid drivers for their devices AND updates quickly. If Google would have required that all manufacturers have to update their devices to the latest within say 6 months time, we'd have FAR less fragmentation. However, it's not fair to compare apple's devices (and their owners) to android devices (and their owners). Two totally different mind sets. The millions buying apple phones/tablets have the money to do so (most anyway) and are willing to upgrade every freaking year to the latest, even when it's a fraction of a minor update like iPhone 4s or ipad 3 is. You see it in the news, you read about it.. millions of apple devotees buy the latest each and every year. The android device owners mostly have the mind set of how long they can get updates to extend the life of their device. They typically fall in to the cheaper crowd (but not always) given all the free android phones you can get.

    Also, the developers.. as an android developer, I can tell you that you can't just know Java and expect to write android apps. There are a lot of little things that make the android app work on a variety of devices that if you do NOT learn and use, you WILL add to the fragmentation problem. And that, (along with Google's miserable failure of teaching developers early on) is why we have fragmentation. Too many developers are school kids, teenagers that think they can write the next great game or app, and put their app out in a few weeks, a month, without rigorous testing, without setting proper hints so the market can limit what devices will find it on the market. The underlying android platform works, on all devices the same way.

    The last fault should go to the manufacturers. Something most users (and probably readers) don't know is that each device has their own underlying hardware. While a lot is nVidia, Qualcom, and the likes, each manufacturer combines different pieces to try to one-up the other guys and provide a phone that will sell. But they are responsible for writing a lot of the device drivers that connect the hardware of the phone to the underlying Android platform. This is why you'll read about some phones just crashing when you turn on the camera, or something else happens like this. As I said above, their lack of updating quickly.. Android 4 has been out for 4 months now.. there are tons of phones capable of running it easily, yet they aren't upgraded? Why? If the majority of the phones the past 6 months that can easily run Android 4 all upgraded relatively quickly so that Android 4 was the dominant OS now.. there would be a lot less fragmentation and a lot more interest in developers supporting Android 4 immediately. But that doesn't happen. Google has no policy to force manufacturers to do so, so they end of life many phones that are plenty capable, so that you'll buy new ones. Case in point, my original moto droid from Nov of 2009 is running a hack version of Android 4. It runs fine. It works great. Why did they EOL the phone if it can run it? Because they want you to buy a phone every year like apple people do.. but sadly.. as I said above..the majority mindset of android owners is NOT to buy a new phone every year. The manufacturers aren't seeing it though.

    So, I am actually now undecided on who will survive this war. I love google/android, I write Java and for Android too, I can't stand the language and strictness of apple, but with all the issues that STILL cause us developers problems (for example, google still has not given us a solid audio capability to write cool audio programs like drum machines and music production apps that you can find on apple) along with this fragmentation, honestly, I am starting to look to Microsoft. I can't believe I am saying this, but if google does NOT address this, which I am pretty sure they wont since they only care about advertising revenue, I would not be shocked if in two years time, Microsoft surpasses google and google becomes the RIM of the market. They need to wake up now.. or they will lose this race.

    1. Daleos
      Pint

      Re: Google, device manufacturers and developers are all the problem

      @jarjarbinks

      I agree with almost everything you say except...

      "They typically fall in to the cheaper crowd (but not always) given all the free android phones you can get."

      The thing is, most blogged reports don't mention Android sale broken down into budget so it's hard to find exact figures. However, I did find something on uSwitch.

      The UK current top 10 selling phones (uSwitch) reads as follows...

      £540 Apple iPhone 4S 16GB Black

      £420 Samsung Galaxy S2

      £540 Apple iPhone 4S 16BG White

      £384 Nokia Lumina 800

      £478 Samsung Galaxy Note

      £460 Blackberry Bold 9900

      £492 HTV One X

      £468 Samsung Galaxy Nexus

      £354 Samsung Galaxy S

      £430 HTC Sensation XL

      I used the clove.co.uk site to get the contract free prices.

      Why they thought they needed to mention the same model of iPhone twice is a mystery. Anyway, I'm sure there are a lot of cheap Android phone out there but of the Android phones (with maybe the exception of the old Samsung Galxay S) in that list are high end models.

      And whilst I completely agree with you that Google need to buck up their APIs in a load of areas, and may lose market share at the top end to MS if they don't sort things out, I'm pretty sure they'll still command the middle and low end markets for some significant time to come. I think MS may carve themselves out a nice solid area of their own with solid utilitarian apps but I'm doubtful the clever/different apps will make their way onto the platform.

      To be honest though, I'm pretty happy with the level of functionality of my HTC Sensation. I don't like playing games on handhelds regardless of make/model, even (PSPs or DS's) I don't watch video on it and the only audio I listen to is audio books. I'm not that bothered about bigger, higher resolution screens. I just want better battery life, a better camera in low light settings, a screen I can read in direct sunlight and louder loudspeaker audio.

      I think those iPhone music production apps are amazing but they're pretty niche. Something I would probably download for the demo but not actually pay for. I just need my phone to deal with my communication and informational needs. If a feature or function doesn't improve those, then it's on my B-list. In fact, I think I may actually sit out the next level of upgrades as I don't see I'll get much more benefit out of them. Another year down the line and hopefully the mid level models will be all I need. At present though mid is still too much of a compromise. However, with Android, at least I have that option and can pick and choose what features I want.

  37. johnmetz

    Survey bias?

    Does anyone actually know the "decline" in Android interest is widespread? The survey merely reveals that the sample of users of this specific development environment are not as interested in Android as they once were. Are there other development environments that are preferred for Android?

    For example, if this dev. environment used to be a leader for Android but has been surpassed by competitors, developers with a serious Android interest would move away, reducing the share of Android developers among this specific environment's user base but indicating nothing about the overall targeting of Android by developers generally.

  38. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Android more and more fragmented?

    Any evidence for this and how would you define `fragmented'? According to Appcelerator website its apps are written to be cross-platform, as such they should be just as easy or difficult to run on multiple Android platforms as the rest.

    "Appcelerator Titanium is the leading mobile app platform for rapidly creating native iPhone, iPad and Android apps, as well as HTML5 mobile web apps"

    www.appcelerator.com

  39. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    rubbish

    Fragmentation is not the reason. 90% of android users are using just 3 versions with 3 screen sizes, an almost identical distribution to users on the last 3 iOS versions.

    What pulls developers to iOS is that android has grown into a largely advertising rather than purchase based market.

  40. Ilgaz

    Too much whining

    I moved to android from Symbian and I still despise google and their lame trickery, their information vampire attitude and their treatment to users and developers alike. One should ask to that Trojan Elop and idiots at Nokia board why we moved to android while hating it.

    I use 2.3.5 and will never likely get the 4.x officially since google forgot to tell handset manufacturers they will go 512m minimum with ics , so I have 256m RAM on a device manufactured on summer 2011.

    By constantly whining about fragmentation which seems doesn't exist for developers who know what they are doing, people miss the real issue with google android market.

    Just yesterday, I was shocked to hear that they don't allow Indian developers and Indian users to sell& buy software. That is amazing, ask anyone in Telecom/ software business. They also don't let EU member countries (some of them) and Russia to buy& sell too.

    They change the name of damn thing without prior announcement, people end up in phone stores and services asking where did market go! They are stupid enough not to think about a temp. Icon which is named "market" which will launch play store and tell people about change.

    They even make gigantic publishers nuts with allowing patented, trademarked "need for speed" which has ad supported low res wallpaper and nothing else hit number 6 at top 10. Good luck with electronic arts meeting.

    I am not even talking about allowing developers steal core Apple OS X icons while there is multi billion dollar patent war going on.

    Fragmentation? Sent via Opera 12 mobile, a full feature mobile browser runs on all Androids.

  41. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Saw a great, similar topic article here:

    http://appcarousel.wordpress.com/2012/03/22/nothing-stays-the-same-for-long-in-the-app-economy-here-comes-html5/

    Developers are clearly conscious of their project costs, and HTML5 is providing them a way to code less (and earn more). That being said, Android fragmentation isn't as bad as this piece makes it out to be.

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