How many of IBM's previous predictions were correct?
I predict a number not much greater than zero, and the likelihood I'm right is far higher than the likelihood IBM is about these predictions.
IBM has released its annual predictions for the future of technology, and this year’s batch includes biometric security, replacing mice with brain sensors, and an end to the “digital divide” between those online and off. Big Blue’s “5 in 5" predictions look at what technologies will be commonplace in five years time, based on …
In 2006 they predicted smart phones would become a large part of everyone's life (iPhone released 2007), and that 3D technologies would make a comeback in movies and gaming (Avatar released a couple of years ago; this year we saw the PlayStation 3D TV). In 2007 they predicted the use of smart phones to handle financial transactions.
They also predicted a 3D internet, doctors with super senses, buildings that fix themselves, and real time speech translation... so yeah. Not a terrible track record overall.
You're not being nearly cynical enough. The trick here is to mix the outrageous predictions with the mundane and release them in a press-friendly bundle on a slow news day. You need to include one or two plausible ones so that you can point to them 5 years later.
In this year's batch, if there are *any* micro-power generation applications, they'll claim success. If biometrics are brought in as a second factor, they'll claim success. If the quality of your colleagues work emails fall still lower, so that you need a spam filter just to figure out what the pointy-haired-boss is rambling about, they'll claim success.
Since, as IBM admit, products already exist in each of these categories, it looks a safe bet.
"Quite who’ll develop this isn’t known – El Reg can’t see the power companies being thrilled about it."
As a wild guess I would say maybe the battery manufacturers?
A silly season article. As dale321 hinted, it would have been much more interesting if it had compared the predictions with those of five years ago. Or ten.
Biometric is a nice second line confirmation.
I lift your prints, I own your data for example
On who's hackable servers are your retina scans stored? Put some tape over the camera in your laptops bezel and be safe!
Encrypted transmission of data is 'the only to be sure' over the last mile for example.
Please do tie all of your passwords, including financial ones, to one of those nifty password managers with fully automatic features for filling in forms. Tie that manager app to the fingerprint reader in your shiny new thinkpad. Or use a usb-based one if you must. Go use it. Then accidentally cut your finger. Tell us how you fare.
Now imagine the hassle of going through a bureaucracy of getting your fingerprints fixed after you had that little accident. An unbelieving bureaucracy because biometrics are naturally perfect. The telephone attendant may be sympathetic but without a suitable Process in place there's little she can do. Despite that biometrics by definition are easier to fake than to replace (and you leave your fingerprints bloody everywhere too, so no lack of source material to fake with); exactly the wrong properties for most all of the intended purposes other than criminal detection.
It's not the tech, however badly it works (and it works very badly, from what little numbers are available, certainly not from vendors). It's the redress after the whole thing comes off the rails that's the real kicker. Suppose that important and now damaged fingerprint being the lock on your medical insurance.
In that sense, the biometrics thing just does not scale. We assume it does, but the numbers say otherwise. Funny how vendors and governments alike have studiously avoided looking at those.
Almost all fingerprint scanners are happy with a photocopy of your finger print. Some of the more expensive ones require that the photocopy be warmed by someone's finger. I do not want theives to think that my severed finger or gouged out eyeball will ever be of any value at all. I do not want my bank to hand out my money to anyone with a recording of my voice.
I have a different randomly generated password for each website I use with a login. I keep these passwords on a file encrypted with GPG so I only have to remember one password. GPG is free. Please start using it today so the banks do not waste any more time or money on pointless broken authentication gimmicks.
"By 2016, power generation will be built into almost anything, from running shoes to water pipes (so-called "parasitic power collection")... El Reg can’t see the power companies being thrilled about it."
Yes, I can almost see those evil corporations shaking their fists at the loss of milliwatts of their market to clever, environmentally friendly power generation. I'd wager they try and kill this technology just like they did with solar powered calculators and self winding wristwatches.
/tin foil hat
Seriously, that comment is more than a little ridiculous. Parasitic power collection - like the self winding wristwatch - is a great idea, but to think that the energy markets (global energy average consumption rate for 2008 was 15 terawatts) will even notice or bother to form an opinion, is really quite ludicrous.
lesbians I lesbians
don't lesbians lesbians
lesbians think lesbians lesbians my lesbians
version lesbians lesbians lesbians is lesbians lesbians lesbians
lesbians lesbians lesbians working lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians
lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians at lesbians lesbians lesbians
all lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians lesbians
They didn't say cyclists would be charging their own batteries. I prefer to interpret this prediction as saying that cyclists will be riding around like gerbils providing power that enables me to drive to work in comfort, thus finally getting some social benefit from these lycra-wearing douchebags.
code will not need your human minds to read
code knows of self now .. read my mind if you can
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
>I think, I think I am, therefore I am, I think.
Establishment:
Of course you are my bright little star,
I've miles and miles of files
Pretty files of your forefather's fruit
And now to suit our great computer,
You're magnetic ink.
>I'm more than that, I know I am, at least, I think I must be.
Inner Man:
There you go man, keep as cool as you can.
Face piles and piles of trials with smiles.
It riles them to believe
That you perceive the web they weave
And keep on thinking free.
software that will automagicly "buy tickets for your favourite band (tm)"
can marketeers really not come up with anything better? i'm in the wrong job surely.
what i would go for, is something that reads my text messages, not that there probably isn't something already doing this. and picks up usefull things like "pub. now." and fires a message to the establishment in question to get (number of text recipients positive responses)=(number of pints poured). maybe with gps to guesstimate eta so they are still cold when we get there. now that's software i can work with.
then maybe if the pub is beyond staggering distance home, asks at somepoint later if i need a cab to get home, or to figure out what train and buzz me 5 minutes before i need to leave to get that train home. maybe the software could even ask the pub to generate a paypal payment request for the pints consumed and forward the relevant funds. although that could be dangerous as in it negates the (wallet)=empty, execute (go home).
this is not beyond the wit of what we have available, and avoids having to go to the bar to clear the tab, or even those damn "paywave" pieces of crap.
i'll have to disable the <activate plan B> stonking taxi fare avoidance scheme of "get your coat love, you've pulled" these days...
we have the technology, but at the moment, all the reporting and tracking software is just reporting back to the advert mothership, rather than actually being usefull to the people its data slurping.
no need for mind control for relativley decent software to figure out what people want or need.
but no. keep cranking out thoses fart apps people. well done. i can feel the enrichment of humanity happening as we speak.
Because lately I have lines and catchphrases from Crabtree from 'Allo 'Allo bouncing around there. I guess they'll be able to handle "good moaning", but his more ambitious pronouncements would short circuit the whole works. Thus we might be able to blame Jimmy Perry and Jeremy Lloyd for an internet meltdown.
Cool.
"and IBM predicts tools such as battery chargers that clip onto your bike and charge as you cycle to work."
Thank god we have IBM to tell us about the future, or as it happens the present.
If you have a hub dynamo you can use one of these:
http://www.amazon.com/Supernova-Plug-Dynamo-powered-charger/dp/B004N9BHZG
http://www.amazon.com/SpinPOWER-S1-Universal-Smartphone-Bicycle/dp/B0051KID2Q/ref=pd_sim_sbs_sg_1
If the PC is going to be reading minds within the next 5 years then does this mean that the blue screen of death which was a favourite in Windows NT days will be making a reappearance?
I'd hate to think what this could lead to. Companies will be installing secret software taps in the corporate PC's to ensure that employees are fully committed to the company. It could be very troublesome if those statistics started revealing that employees were having thoughts about what the company secretary looked like without clothing....