The amount of floating ice in the Arctic's Bering Sea - which had long been expected to retreat disastrously by climate-Cassandra organisations such as Greenpeace - reached all-time record high levels last month, according to US researchers monitoring the area using satellites. The US National Snow and Ice Data Center announced …
1) Your claim of "£250m per year" is demonstrably utter BS. They get about £15m p.a. for climate research, (up from £13m two years ago), according to reasonably-reliable sources :
2) All climate research depends on "modelling", because unlike most scientific research, we cannot repeat the experiment a thousand times to see whether a different outcome occurs when the conditions are changed. We don't have hundreds of planets to experiment on (or a time machine so we can change the past and see how it affects the present).
So if your disagreement is based on the fact that it is a model, then you seem to have a fundamental problem understanding the scientific method involved, and you may as well just stick your fingers in your ears and shout "la la la la it's not happening" for all the wisdom that you're bringing to this debate.
Maybe in your head, every piece of evidence is simply a scam by someone-or-other to make some 'profit' out of 'scaremongering', while the money that companies such as ExxonMobil pour into supporting 'sceptics' is just their way of being philanthropic, and they have *no vested interest* in persuading the world to continue using their products. No doubt if this was the 60s or 70s you'd say that lung cancer boffins only do it because they profit from "maintaining the fraud" that cigarettes are bad for you, whilst those nice tobacco companies are simply fighting for the little man's right to live life however he wants. Personally, I simply don't believe any of that.
At the end of the day, if the 'climate change lobby' are wrong, all that really happens is some people (different people from the current industrial-military status quo) make a few bucks for a while.
However, if the 'denial lobby' are wrong, millions of people (and animals) will die. And when people like yourself blithely say, in a coded way, "well I don't care if millions of people die, I want to keep my toys", I consider you nothing less than utter scum.
Total operating expenditure from the Met Office is £197m in 2010/2011. This does not count the extra cash from the government to purchase Yet Another Vastly Expensive Computer.
"All climate research depends on "modelling", because unlike most scientific research, we cannot repeat the experiment a thousand times to see whether a different outcome occurs when the conditions are changed. "
Precisely. It depends on modelling. And models are useless. End of story. Models have NOTHING to do with the Scientific Method. They are toys. They are verified or rejected by comparing them with REAL EMPIRICAL DATA. Even Phil Jones says they are all wrong:
So why on Earth are you whining at me for pointing it out???!
model in malicious quotes
"just one study" fallacy
"Models have NOTHING to do with the Scientific Method. They are toys."
I've got Messers Fourier, Gauss and Newton on the telephone. They would like to have a quiet word with you about your distinguished opinion of their work.
".....these changes could have been largely driven by dirty pollution and volcanoes...." So, was it us, or mainly the volcanoes, or would the same effect have happened under just the influence of the volcanoes alone? Last time I checked, we had zero control over volcanoes. You score a big, fat fail.
I remmber the good old days when the Reg was infested by BOFH and not Warmista's, bring back the hacked company lift shaft I say.
Simple test whats TCP in TCP/IP?
Posting A/C because I don't want the snot goblins (rubbish Trolls) to snot to much.
Re: I remember
You don't seem to get that smart people tend to go into computing. It's actually a science. We aren't your general numbskulls who fall for this anti-AGW crap like your average tabloid reader. Go back where you seem smarter.
Re: I remember
Thanks Tads you completely prove my point, looking at your comment history I take it you don't know what TCP in TCP/IP stands for without Google-ing it.
I'm going to Tech Crunch where it's not full of angry adolescents and eco-nutters with an axe to grind or ego to stroke.
Re: I remember
What part of "Computing is a Science" did you fail to read in my last post. Do you know any computing science degrees that fail to examine the OSI networking model in excruciating detail, including the kludge that is TCP/IP and it's brothers UDP, ICMP etc.
If you think TCP/IP is "technical", good luck to you. Since I'm fairly sure you're nothing but a climate denier troll, good riddance while I'm at it.
Climate change is complex
It's darkly amusing to see non-scientists staring into their own grave and not feeling the hand at their back. In case you weren't aware, "global warming" quickly became a an erroneous and misleading phrase once the complexity of the changes in the global climate became more obvious; thus "climate change." Some places get warmer (the U.S. this past winter) and some places get colder (Europe - dramatically colder and with higher precip this winter). Most of the comments here are astonishingly simplistic and uninformed. As they say in the southern part of the U.S... "Y'all need a better education....."
It's over. The enviromental movement that started in 1970 reached its' peak a week before the Copenhagen conference and the leaked emails. Environmentalism has been the religion for this generation. It's over, it's in decline. Where will the hippies go next ... for money?
here in the Alps
The snowlevels compared to this time last year are massive, even had knee deep powder today following last nights storms.
The overall base depth means skiing to 1300m whereas last year at this time it was meadows at 1850m and sludge to ski in.
The climate varies year on year, not sure it means we are heading for doom and gloom but the skiing this year has been great.
Re: here in the Alps
"The climate varies year on year".
I think you'll find that that's called "weather", not climate.
Alternative hippy view...
Chill dudes, don't worry about it, old mama Gaia will sort it out, we're all just stardust man, billion year old carbon, here today somewhere else tomorrow it's all just karma, bad shit happens, so just sit back, light up and let it be, we are golden and with all this new warmth and sun, we can all get down and party back in the garden.
So as a planet we are glacial and inter glacial; there have been four known periods of glacial activity – based on the science this is either a 100,000 year cycle or a 400,000 year problem depending on your reading of the Milankivitch cycles of Earth axis movement. Right now we are 10,000 years post ice age and approximately 40,000 – 50,000 from the next. We cannot stop the warming of the planet and we cannot stop the cooling. Now that said, are we helping to nudge along the heating? Yes our carbon emissions are contributing the acceleration of the process. This warming is a process we are going through as the Earth heats up due to the inter glacial cycle it is now a question about how warm we get and how much we contribute to it. There have periods in our Earth history where we had significantly higher carbon levels too; long before our rodent ancestors existed.
Will our heating delay the onset of the next ice age?… good question; possibly. Will we be able to reduce our contribution to the heating process? No. Global economics and political interests will not permit us too. We can only hope we develop reliable, consistent, clean energy at some point in the future to limit our part in the warming.
But as with everything in Earth’s history it can be measured in the slow march of time, and eventually the glaciers will loom on the horizon 50,000’ish years from now and start their inevitable march South once more.
I welcome our wooly mammoth overlords arrival.
"We can only hope we develop reliable, consistent, clean energy at some point in the future"
We have, it's called nuclear energy, more specifically gen III en IV
Won't somebody think of the
(Paris because although not bear related I'm fairly sure she knows her way around Belvoir)
Never mind the hippies ...
... what about the Lewis Page worshippers? How many of the poor deluded souls are there out there?
Listen guys, the clue is in the working title - GLOBAL Climate Change. See? It's about a rising trend in the AVERAGE temperature of the PLANET which is apparent if you compare decadal chunks of time; nothing to do with localised increases or decreases in one location in a few successive years. Stop slavering over month to month changes that appear to go the "wrong" way. Learn some basic statistics. Read the Feb 2012 edition of "significance", the journal of the American Statistical Association and the Royal Statistical Society.
Cantenna's heat solution
I did a few fag packet calcs and the 400m^3 of water is going to need approximately 380 tonnes of concrete as insulation to store a years solar colllcted heat. Thats around 780 tonnes of mass that must be supported on foundations so yet more concrete. All in a package about 8m cubed. Who has the money to invest in that much space and material to store energy for a year, without the absurd cost of 50m^2 of solar thermal panels.
I get the idea of solar preheating in the winter and solar for summer hot water use, and in time it will even become genuinely cost effective as energy prices rise but no on the scale suggested.
Also to my knowledge only Calor gas used offer a stirling engine product in the UK because only when the fuel is as prohibitively expensive as off grid LPG does the capital and maintenance overhead of micro combined heat and power get close to being economic. Checking their website even they don't offer it anymore.
The problem with the green argument for me is they have problems but no feasible solutions. Until industrial electricity storage makes nuclear and renewables technically feasible absolute alternatives to fossil fuel then it will probably be easier to deal with the consequences than prevent them.
This post illustrates a very "establishment " friendly pattern for El Reg.
LOL at the Register editors becoming climate change deniers, which is clearly illustrated by the nature of this post. The savvy editors here are arguing against 99.99% of scientists on an issue of science. Want to appease your corporate advertisers much? This post illustrates a very "establishment " friendly pattern for El Reg. regarding its reporting.
Re: This post illustrates a very "establishment " friendly pattern for El Reg.
I wonder where your 99.99% statistic comes from?
Probably arrived out of your backside.
Wow, funny reading, Lewis.. You sound like an oil executive, ranting, over drinks after the 18th hole.
Read this twice, please. http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/mar/22/why-global-warming-skeptics-are-wrong/
Repeat after me -
Weather isn't climate. Weather. Isn't. Climate. *Weather* *Is* *Not* *The* *Same* *Thing* *As* *Climate*
climate = Long Term Global Trend
weather = there's more ice in the Bering sea at the moment than there was in some other year.
I'll be at the Pub.
Riddle me this.
What I'd like to understand is this.
Every year the earth gets bombarded by solar radiation. Does this not in and of itself cause the earth (as a whole) to increase in temperature? Is there some mechanism whereby the earth releases energy back into space? Is there data on what the net balance is?
Also, given that the earth's climate is changing, and given that our (humans) actions do have a statistically significant impact on that change ... why is it a bad thing? Is it because weather events are going to get more extreme? Are we not going to be able to cope? Perhaps we shall.
I'm not saying that I don't believe that humans can damage the planet, I think it has been shown again and again that industry has contaminated and polluted our soil, sea and air.
What I personally am skeptical about is our ability to disrupt the entire earth's climate to such a degree that we will be adversely affected by it on an annual basis (I'm talking catastrophic global calamity here). If all we're talking about is some more severe storms, a bit hotter here, a bit colder there, some rise in sea levels then so what? We'll adapt. Why won't we adapt?
I accept the science, I don't accept the policies advocated as a result. I live in Ireland, most people here whine about climate change, yet hardly anyone backs nuclear power because it's "evil". Enough said.
Re: Riddle me this.
Is there some mechanism whereby the earth releases energy back into space?
Sun: very hot transmits heat to the earth that is hot (IR)
Earth: hot planet transmits heat to very cold space(IR)
Now the reason why temperatures do not rise a lot in day and cool a lot at night(>50) is that parts of the atmosphere reflects IR.
The 4 major gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide,methane and ozone. Clouds also reflect heat.
The basic argument about climate change
Sun cools by radiating heat to a colder body(Earth)
Earth cools by radiating heat to a colder body(Space)
Certain parts of the atmosphere slow down the cooling. (And stabilize the temperatures)
Humans have increased the ability to slow down the cooling(more CO2 in the air)
Therefore more energy is retained and temperatures go up.
Re: Riddle me this.
Excellent questions! A summary of the accepted science is available from The Royal Society here: http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary-science/ . I've read easier short documents but I think it sheds some light on your questions.
Like you, I find the taxation measures suspect. I don't agree with the simplification of climate change politics to the question of atmospheric CO2 alone (almost).
Enough said? I disagree... The politics of nuclear power in Ireland are understandably clouded by the safety record of that industry and the WMD industry in Cumbria. If the government of the UK are so committed to nuclear power and confident in its safety, perhaps they could site a reactor in Battersea power station. Pigs might fly! (Yes, Pink Floyd reference equals suspect hippy ; )
Is there any organisation with the technical and ethical credentials to run nukes in YOUR back yard? No corporation I know of could be trusted.
The government are encouraging us turkeys to vote for Christmas on May 31st and cannot be trusted. You might think it's in you short to medium term interests to go along with their blackmail but it is not and anyway, that's not the point. This is not about us. It's the same as the climate issue. Would we be able to look our great grandchildren in the eye? This is personal; this is survival. Leave the car at home if you can and take a walk, and vote no in the fiscal referendum! Please?
Re: Riddle me this.
what makes it more complex:
-global dimming (mainly for particulate pollution from commercial airflight) dampening the heating effect
-solar activity influencing cloud formation
-albedo changes due to humans development
people still saying we couldn't possibly influience the climate are nothing short of batshit retarded....we've changed the WHOLE surface of our planets and using up ALL its resources in a couple of centuries.....due to our development we currenty have the biggest wave of species extinction going on in 65 million years!!!!! (that comet that wiped the dino's)
our impact on our planet is very real, but that doesn't change the fact GP are scum that abuse the fuck out of our issues to steal cash from people by using very very bad science, or flatout lying...And of course actively preventing solutions to problems they profit from
Re: Riddle me this.
safety record? no energy generation makes fewer deaths then nuclear, and that's with 3 apocalyptic (according to GP and other scum) events included....
in the meantime a few years of placing PV-cells in belgium has already claimed more lives than 40 years of nukes (getting 55 to 82% of power from nukes)......which caused: zero deaths
GE can put an S-prism in my backyard TOMOROW, as then I'll be part of the solution (co2 free power using nuclear waste as fuel, leaving nearly no waste), and not part of the problem like greenpeace and most "green" parties
Re: Riddle me this.
The Planet has mechanisms whereby it can cope with changes to the environment. Those mechanisms operate on a scale of thousands of years. Human impacts are on a scale of 10s of years; the Planet's natural coping mechanisms will not be able to respond as they have in the past. How the Planet will respond to human impact is not well known. So how much risk are you willing to tolerate?
News about Fukushima ?
Hey Lewis ! Any news about Fukushima ?
Is it back in control now ? Did anything happened there ?
When are you going to start again your flood of erroneous and wrong articles on the incident ?
Trying to get back on track with climate change ?
Never trust a hippy!
As the Sex Pistols said, way back in the day. Greenies are cultist loonies, plain and simple!
Hey Lewis ? You great futurist might remind this one :
Fukushima's toxic legacy: Ignorance and fear"
Hysteria rages unchecked as minor incident winds down
By Lewis Page • Posted in Physics, 22nd March 2011 13:49 GMT
So lord_farquaad, remind us how many people have died because of Fukushima? More or less than, say, due to bee stings?
I don't see any issue with that article, I would however like to see some, ANY reason for your fearmongering.....then again I'd be surprised if you could even explain what an atom is...
I can answer that: ZERO
meanwhile the death toll of placing PV cells on roofs is a 2 in belgium....vs 0 casulties in 40 years of nuclear power plants ....oh and coal plants killing millions each year (ironically some green/eco filth is calling for coal as the "better" choice than nukes)
So far the toll is 0
Unlike from the actual massive earthquake and tsunami...
I completely disagree with Lewis' stance on AGW but that doesn't make him wrong on nuclear power.Nuclear is so far the safest power source per watt we've ever discovered to my knowledge. If anything I think you've just made Lewis' headline point with your own hysterically toned posts.
ok, did I say that anyone died in Fukushima ?
Yes, Nuclear "energy" is more green than most of other fossile energy.
But also potentially more dangerous.
When Lewis wrote his article saying that this was a minor incident winding down, he was completely wrong. This was a very serious incident growing and growing.
He wrote a series of article saying it was impossible that only iodine would be release and that it was impossible that cesium would be release.
Those prooved to be completely false.
Then, because this industry is potentially very dangerous, we have to be on the knees on the enterprise to be sure they keep on improving their security standards. Exactly the contrary of this Mr Agenda.
Re: So far the toll is 0
Histerically yours ...Blaming those posts being histerical, you are using exactly Lewis twists
Golden Cherry Picker Award
Even by Lewis Page's standards that article takes weirdness to new level. It deserves an award.
Alternately, kick him off the Reg and resume normal standards for rational discourse.
As a hippie myself...
... I think it is foolish for you to take Greenpeace's word that they are hippies. The logical flaw of "Greenpeace says that its members are hippies ergo it must be true" is the same as "Greenpeace says that the world is going to end in 2011 ergo we are no longer here".
I'm sure Greenpeace likes to think of itself as a hippie organisation. I tend to think of them more as eco-terrorists, willing to impose their beliefs on others at all costs. Frankly, they are the man.
Re: As a hippie myself...
they do exhibit the exact same behaviour, and use the same manipulation techniques as most rightwing extremist parties/organisations....
Aside from that
I note that most of the attacks on the article in the 'comments' are actually ad hominem attacks on the author. Such attacks are always weak. Stop using them.
(And kudos to those who have attacked his argument, rather than his perceived beliefs.)
Proud to be a hippie
I don't work for Greenpeace, but I am proud to be a hippie and wear that label as a badge of honor. Hippies are idealists who care about changing the world, not about accumulating as much money and as many material things as possible. Better a hippie than a welfare leech like Schmate Middleton who does nothing and lives off her country's taxpayers.
Reg readers think 1m2 of gold leaf more valuable than gold ingot
An analogy to the argument that climate deniers raise about the ice. It is not the surface area that is important- a large crust of ice can develop rapidly (and melt rapidly). Any discussion of ice that just focuses on ice surface area as an indicator of climate is shallow and clearly just intended as a headline grabber instead of a serious look at the science and reality of climate change. Every year the depth and volume of ice is decreasing, a sure indicator of long term changes in the climate of the planet.
I defy anyone with any critical faculties to look at this animation of long-term arctic ice and then say that the planet is cooling
As long term ice (perennial ice) declines, it shows that the climate has heated up since that ice was laid down. Basic logic. But apparently incomprehensible to the author of the article (and the editors of the Reg who keep putting out half-baked "science" articles- perhaps they should stick to reviewing laptops).
Anyone who thinks surface area is a good indicator, I am happy to swap a couple of square metres of gold leaf for your gold jewelry.
Twelve days two late, muppets.
Just like the internal corporate fool's day joke that arrived in my work inbox on April 3rd, it's rather lame and insulting. Just because no one gets out alive it doesn't mean it's a good idea to torch the place.
Can someone bottom line this for me?
Are we going to live or not?
Re: Can someone bottom line this for me?
Hope that clears everything up.
Hippies all around me...
How can global warming possibly be true when the world is only 6000 years old? There are lots of good web-sites that I am sure the author would really love which blow big holes in the two made-up theories of evolution and global warming.
Lewis, you seem to have missed a call -
while, just as Mr Orlowski tends to do in his posts, you did manage to misunderstand - not to say willfully misrepresent - the NSIDC article to which you referred, but to which, for some strange reason, you failed to provide a link. But oddly enough, while like him you denigrate those concerned about climate change as «hippies» (a powerful argument, that !), you did not go quite so far as your comrade in arms, who recently on these pages (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/04/04/kareiva_new_environmentalism_essay/) evoked the stirring slogan : «Get rid of hippies, save the planet». Don't tell me you lack the courage of your convictions ?...
Here we are again. Foolish article written by an uninformed spinner. This headline makes it look like there is MORE ice when the ice being mentioned is break-up ice, created by warm conditions.
Keep your head in the sand, maybe then only the part of you that conceived this article will be exposed to the heat of global warming. This hippie believes in science, not in supporting oil companies who pay for slanted research.
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