Android would not have magically saved Nokia
I know a lot of people really HATE Microsoft, but this idea that if only they picked Android all of their problems would magically disappear is nonsense! Before I go on, I think Nokia should have bought Palm, and taken up the WebOS mantel. It was a beautiful OS, with a lot of potential. Sadly this did not happen. Ok back to Android vs. Windows Phone. Sure there are a hard core IT folk that would love to have a Lumia 920 running on Android, but the rest of the world? Not so sure. Where I live in the US, the Android market is DOMINATED by Samsung. Galaxy and the Note rule the day here. Are they the only nice Android phones on the market? Of course not. Sure the new HTC One got rave reviews, but the excitement over it is nowhere near the levels of excitement about the new Galaxy. LG, they are almost an afterthought. Sure the Nexus 4 sold like gangbusters, but that was because of the very aggressive price that Google was selling the phone for. I know the device itself is very nice, my wife has one, but most customers probably have never really heard of it. Walk into any store here, and for the most part it is the Galaxy and iPhone that are the most advertised and on display. So if Nokia went Android they would have to compete with the likes of Samsung, LG, Motorola, Sony, HTC, etc... And what state is HTC in? Having been the first to market with and Android phone? They are losing money hand over fist, even though they make very nice Android devices. Is the Lumia 920 nicer than the HTC One? Maybe, maybe not, but what difference does it make if HTC cannot seem make money on Android?
Now factor in the low end of the market, there are TONS of OEMS making cheap Android phones. Can Nokia compete with them in a race to the bottom? Will that make it profitable?
Back to Microsoft, yes we all know how evil they are and what not, but I guarantee you they are NOT going to give up on mobile anytime soon if ever. It is too important of a market for them to walk away from. They have a huge war chest, and are in it for the long run. Will they ever dominate mobile? Probably not, and this is for the best, but they will eventually carve out enough market share to stay relevant. Microsoft is not as OEM, even though sometimes it tries to be, so it needs a top tier OEM to support their platform. Nokia needed a platform, and more importantly needed help building a platform. From a business sense it made total sense for them to partner up. Nokia got some cash from Microsoft, and Microsoft gains a top tier OEM. Nokia also gets help promoting the platform. So they do not have to do everything themselves. MS will not let mobile go, and as far as they are out there telling people about WP, as of right now this helps Nokia.
If Nokia stayed with MeeGo, at the present count it would be the 5th major mobile OS on the market. iOS, Android, Blackberry 10, Windows Phone, MeeGo. Yeah I know, IT folks LOVED it because it ran Linux. Well sadly that is not enough. Neither WP nor Blackberry 10 are horrible OSes, but look how much trouble they are having attracting mobile developers to their platform? People who buy these things care not that it runs Linux, but they sure as hell care if it has Instagram, Foursquare, Pinterest, etc... With MeeGo Nokia would be the only one promoting the platform and they would be facing monumental challenges getting people to notice it. Just look at Blackberry, and least they have their corporate customers to fall back on. So no matter how awesome MeeGo was, how open, etc... Nokia would have to license it to others, would anyone jump on board? HTC and Samsung already make both Android and Windows Phones, what would MeeGo give them that those to platforms do not?
Nokia was in trouble LONG before Windows Phone or Elop came along. If you want to blame anyone, blame the management board that got them into this mess in the first place. They were slow to react to the iPhone and Android and are now paying for it. There was a very good article about Nokia and their internal development environment around the time the iPhone came out. Multiple teams working on the exact same problem, but competing against each other, loss of focus, just seemed like a total mess. Had the cleaned this up right when the iPhone was announced and got their act together, maybe MeeGo would have been a player today, it defiantly had the potential, but sadly it was not to be. Now Elop could have picked up WebOS, but again, they would be going at it alone. Samsung, LG, Sony they have an advantage that they do not just make phones. Sure Nokia makes equipment, but is that enough to sustain the whole company while it tries to grow a platform against some of the wealthiest companies in the world? Probably not.
One final point, I think what is hurting Nokia a bit in the US are these damn carrier exclusive phones. Right now if you want a 920, you can only get it on AT&T. WHY? It should be available on EVERY carrier, just like the Galaxy. You need the sales, so offer your phone to anyone and everyone that could potentially buy it!!!
Whatever case maybe, Nokia would still not be magically awesome right now if it had only used Android. At the very least with WP they get to be the top OEM of a small percentage of the market, but one that will no doubt grow as time goes on.