Electric cars stall in USA, Australia
Better Place, the electric car outfit founded by spurned SAP CEO aspirant Shai Agassi, has walked away from projects in the USA and Australia, to “focus on delivering on its strategy in Denmark and Israel, where the complete infrastructure is in place and commercial operations are fully underway,” Better Place's electric car …
Re: EVs are so impractical
> Tesla are currently selling 400 Model S electric cars per week
Yes, but that's California. Hardly representative of the real world.
Re: EVs are so impractical
So how many days a year do you do more than 100 miles - very few people answer more than 1 or 2 (I used to answer 250, because my commute was insane) - and you don't have a few hours in the middle (where the vehicle can pick up some more juice (e.g. at the office or the house of family/friends).
The "limited" range is rather nullified by the convenience of recharging when you park up for the night (yes I know not everyone has off road parking)
For the rare occasions you need longer range you might also want a larger vehicle (e.g. to take the whole family to the other end of the country for a holiday) so you can easily hire an appropriate vehicle. I've very rarely drvien a vehicle which is appropriate for the journey I'm taking - they are a compromise between the "long heavily laden" journey and a "nip to the supermarket".
The EV serves the bottom 99+% of those journeys really well, so you buy one in a form factor that serves those journeys well (and those are now covered *much* better than they were before.
Then on the couple of occasions a year when you need something outside those parameters you hire something for the day.
Re: EVs are so impractical
>> Tesla are currently selling 400 Model S electric cars per week
>Yes, but that's California. Hardly representative of the real world.
They may be based in California (as are companies like Apple) but their cars are currently selling well across the USA and there are lots in other countries with pre-orders waiting for some to be exported.
Re: EVs are so impractical
"Tesla are currently selling 400 Model S electric cars per week, despite them being as expensive as a BMW 5 or 7 series"
20,000 whole cars per year in the US market? Ford would sell way more F150s than that a week. Ford in Australia would consider 20,000 sales of a single model in a year to be an abject failure.
I don't buy that they can't make them faster - plenty of people in the US looking for work, plenty of factories in mothballs, and rivers of cash are flowing out the white house trying to get the economy going - Tesla could open a second facility in a heartbeat. The fact they haven't says a lot...
Re: EVs are so impractical
> you can easily hire an appropriate vehicle.
That isn't a sustainable model. If everyone had EVs for the commute, and planned to hire larger vehicles for occasional long drives, there would never be enough hiring capacity for holiday weekends. No rental company could afford to keep thousands of cars on hand just to meet a few days peak demand each year. The infrastructure to refuel those hire cars would collapse as well, though lack of use.
Assuming, of course, that such cars would even be manufactured in sufficient quantity. They would certainly become very expensive.
This is exactly the same situation that we see with wind turbines. They can't be relied on to provide service all the time, so you need backup capacity for the off-service days. You end up creating two parallel infrastructures at high cost, neither of which is efficient because it doesn't get enough use. That is not a sensible use of finite resources.
Re: EVs are so impractical
"I don't buy that they can't make them faster - plenty of people in the US looking for work, plenty of factories in mothballs, and rivers of cash are flowing out the white house trying to get the economy going - Tesla could open a second facility in a heartbeat. The fact they haven't says a lot..."
Setting up a modern auto factory is not a small task! It took 18 months to move from empty space to production at their current plant then another 6 months to ramp up to full capacity last month. If they started building a new line now I wouldn't expect to see production until the end of this year at the earliest. I suspect they will start on the new line towards the end of this year.
Re: EVs are so impractical
"So how many days a year do you do more than 100 miles"
At least 1 weekend a month, in January it was 3/4 weeks I was on hols) - holidays I'd rather not sacrifice
"you can easily hire an appropriate vehicle"
But you see I can buy an "appropriate vehicle" in the first place for probably thousands less than an electric car (depends on the car), and not have to call a hire car company anytime I want to take a spontaneous holiday.
You are right, for short commutes an electric car would be perfectly fine, but while you can still buy a car that does everything you need for thousands less electric cars wont take off in more dispersed populations like the US and Aus IMHO
Re: EVs are so impractical
"Setting up a modern auto factory is not a small task!"
So why haven't they started?
As I said there could not be a better/cheaper time to set up a new factory in the US, but they aren't doing it I assume because they don't think the sales will support it.
I wasn't suggesting they could snap their fingers and a factory appears, merely that the fact they were at capacity does not imply that they could sell dramatically larger numbers if it weren't for the factory limitation.
If that were the case they would have already started on another factory already given the 2 year time lag as you said.
Re: EVs are so impractical
Wrong metric - it's not % of journeys, it's % of calendar days.
For both hire and purchase you amortise the sunk costs over time, not journeys.
The only place you pay a hire car by distance is a taxi - except the meter still ticks if you're stationary, so not even then.
Personally, I need the long range for around 10 days a year, except I still need a vehicle at the other end which cranks it up to ~40 days. That's a lot of hire car charges!
Then there's the cost of the EV itself, which even with subsidy is higher than a new mid-sized people carrier - and unlike the people carrier the EV will be worth diddly-squat when I get rid of it, just like my laptop is worth nothing after a few years.
Re: corn-fed
Only if you don't keep your car in a windowless garage.
V2G was a non-starter too
Three or four years ago Vehicle-to-Grid was all the rage. Even David Mackay, who is generally quite accurate, reckoned "the key thing is to build up electric vehicles and electric heat pumps demand at the same rate as wind supply. Roughly 1000 electric vehicles per (2MW) wind turbine."
http://withouthotair.blogspot.co.uk/2009/05/is-david-mackay-trying-to-make-wind.html
With batteries costing around $500 per kWh capacity and lasting for 1000 cycles used gently or 500 if hammered, their use as backup for wind would be hopelessly uneconomic; even if their owners were prepared to forgo using the car during calm spells.
Weird numbers
There are some pretty stupid numbers being thrown around in some of the comments. IBM have started that by 2020 batteries will have ten times the go they have now and they will be in use on the road. You can bet against them if you like. Induction charging is the way forward, possibly with a rail running along the road.
You what?
Never mind that induction charging is hopelessly inefficient, how much do you think it would cost to install that rail?
For an order-of-magnitude estimate, look up how much it costs per mile to electrify a section of the railway network. It's a lot more than that so add another zero, because you're digging up a road rather than stringing wires between poles.
A "concept of operations" question.
What's the cycle time to do an automated battery charge Vs a full normal speed charge?
Because that's about how many you'll need on site to keep a replacement station running 24/7. NB It has to be a normal charge because who would want to receive a pack you know has been hammered by the station using fast charge.
If we are looking at an 8 hr charge cycle and a 5 minute replacement that's 96 batteries/station provided you can get the necessary power flow into the site to get them charged (figures pulled from nearest bodily orifice).
And of course at c$5000/pack that would be about a $430k investment for one station.
However once you have a standardized pack size/interface you open up the options. Hybrid modules (packed fuel/engine/generator + battery), flywheels, mixed battery/super capacitor packs for "performance" etc.
So that charge time / replacement time is very important.
It's got a shot. maybe.
Err no thanks
I'll stick with my Jeep Grand Cherokee (1996 4.0 Limited) - she may drink fuel like it's going out of fashion (managed to get her to 17.4mpg), but overall in the long term, she's still alot less expensive and easier to fill, than electrics will ever be (given there's not a single electric filling station up here, nor are the batteries cheap enough to ever consider being a viable alternative to petrol))
Sorry, but...
1) batteries need to be (at least) good for 300 miles to be practical in the US - everything is soooo far apart. Most countries in Europe would fit in Texas.
2) Drive an hour - replace a battery - drive another hour - replace another battery ? Not buyin' it.
3) Starving third world population ? Sounds good to me. Ever feed stray cats / dogs ? You get more stray cats / dogs. And most of the population in certain third world countries want to kill us. OK - you're right. We can't let them suffer. Kill them all now. More humane that way. Can't let them starve, you know.
Distance needn't be a problem
Those suggesting that long journeys, or filling stations a long distance apart in the US, mean that battery vehicles simply won't work, seem to be under the impression that the robot filling stations will only fit one standard battery to each vehicle.
I don't see any reason why small commuter vehicles couldn't take a single battery while larger vehicles could take, two, three, four or more standard batteries and so extend their range more or less proportionately. The US already has huge pick-up trucks - plenty of room in those for extra batteries for extra range.
Re: Distance needn't be a problem
Each battery pack would increase the overall weight of the vehicle. Isn't there a power to weight ratio that needs to be maintained for EV performance? Otherwise, an EV with 3 or 4 battery packs wouldn't have any more range than a lighter single-battery EV.
OZ Average Commute
Here's some data from oz (well Sydney). Average trip distance is 17 KM in greater Sydney.
Look at http://www.bts.nsw.gov.au/Statistics/HTS/default.aspx#top 2008/09 Household Travel Survey Summary Report, 2010 Release
These is much lower than the range of any electric car mentioned in all of the comments. Just because Australia is big doesn't mean electric cars are unsuitable. My family has two cars - I commute about 40 kms each way to work and occasionally go on longer trips, so most current electric cars would be unsuitable. Any margin of error, such as a traffic jam or extra side trips and I'd be at risk of running out of juice. My wife's average trip though, is about 3 km. Most of her fuel consumption is starting the damn thing up. Electric would be ideal.
Chicken or Egg?
Having read through a lot of the posts and arguments for / against the battery swap scheme, EV's, crop fuel & other alternatives here, I am drawn back to my initial thoughts.
We need urgently to change our suicidal mono-culture dependence on fossil fuels which we almost exclusively depend on not only for the the maintenance of our living standards, but for our survival.
China, India & other rapidly developing economies competing for this finite resource to supply their industry, transport & change to a meat centered diet. The laws of supply & demand will drive prices up & force us to look harder, take greater risks & fight wars to preserve a secure supply. . Of course big oil & defense companies with their powerful lobbies have a massive vested interest to maintain the status quo & have the consequent benefits of state subsidies in the hidden form of political & armed intervention . However Shale oil/gas only be viewed as a breathing space to develop & try out new methods of energy generation, supply, storage & efficiency improvements
As I see it, this company is attempting to setting up a commercial solution to overcome the short comings of EV's, battery technology & the variability problem of solar/wind (with out the need for subsidy?). They are putting their money where their mouth is, (our opinions are cheap by comparison)! If they succeed or fail the knowledge & skills of this exercise will be of benifit to us all.
Re: Chicken or Egg?
".....Of course big oil & defense companies with their powerful lobbies have a massive vested interest....." Aw, you were doing so well up until the mask slipped and you trotted out the standard anarch-socialist claptrap. One of the reasons we're so lagging on electric cars is because Greentards such as yourself blindly objected to schemes such as nuclear power that could have provided the cheap and abundant electricity we need for them to work.
Re: @ Matt Bryant, Chicken or Egg?
First off, I'm actually pro nuclear, happy to live within 10 miles of a Nuclear station and support the planned building of additional reactors. As an engineer (not in that industry but have worked with colleagues who were), I find easy to accept the very small risk of accident and disposal of waste has. As such regard it as the only present cost effective non carbon based fossil energy source & not those windmills & solar panels which do have their place but can only be seen realistically as under development at present.
Again I see Fission only as a stepping stone (giving us 50-100 years by which time Fusion may be ready!) towards a truly sustainable energy solution, In many areas I agree with the I MechE 's UK 2050 energy plan (see link)
.http://www.imeche.org/Libraries/Key_Themes/IMechE_UK_Energy_2050_Report.sflb.ashx
This outlines an achievable plan rather than the UK governments impossible Energy Bill of 2012,(which of course includes the excessive reliance on wind, something Parliament produces an excess of!)
As regard the heavy influence of Big oil & defense on Government. I can bear witness to the extraordinary efficient use of resources by procurement of lobbied for government projects in the Western nations, collaborative programs are even more effective (the JSF & non cat & trap carriers my favorite). The benefit we do gain is in the rapid development of technology in times of crisis, but these of course cannot be released for commercial exploitation for security for many years.
The real waste however is that the brightest & most talented are attracted to these industries for the higher salaries in common with the City recruitment. To be fair the Defense industry has preserved the core of engineering in the UK against the Citys,Government policy & old style British managements destructive short term outlook that has destroyed most of our manufacturing base.
I do not say that the Defense Industry or big Oil should be prevented from lobbying it is a question of balance, after taking in practicalities, it is still a dangerous & uncaring world & change cannot happen that quickly, but they should not be seen as the only way to secure our energy needs (as seen by recent conflicts & support of unsavory regimes). The defending of our economy can be increasingly, more effectively achieved by applying as much political will, resources, vigor & talent into developing a diverse non fossil fuel energy system as we have applied to in supporting Oil & Defense. Innovation built this nation & can again if we apply it to an expanding market area, it could generate far greater, longer lived sustained growth, than applying lt to the same old projecting of political economic & ultimately military power for an ever diminishing resource.
