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Feeling poor? WHO took all your money? NOT capitalist bastards?

Lies, damned lies and statistics: we all know the saying, but you'd be surprised just how many of these “facts” manage to enter the national consciousness, emerging as Guardian headlines and stories on Radio 4's Today. Allow me to tiptoe through the process as to how this happens. Let's start with this lovely little chart: A …

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@JB Re: Just a bunch of wiggly lines?

When I first arrived in the US about 12 years ago i was truly shocked at the state of the infrastructure here. Roads and bridges left to the point of collapse and beyond before being maintained, water and power supplies work most of the time, we have lost water 4 times in the last year due to lack of investment in the local supply system, power goes out if you breathe out too quickly, or at least it seems like that. Whenever infrastructure is invested in, it seems to be an excuse for corporations and the mob to screw the system for the most you can, e.g The Big Dig in Boston. The rapacious 1% have screwed this country for the last 40 years or more and I wonder how much longer the peons will take it. The next few years are going to be "Interesting Times".

Anonymous Coward

Re: Just a bunch of wiggly lines?

The homeless drunk does nothing to better society, the company director is creating jobs and helping society to flourish. You can save only one, which one do you pick? I choose the company director.

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Execuive Pay...

I'd be interested in how the distibuion of pay has changed... Ihave a strong impression that what one might call the executive class is paying itself a rather higher share of the wage economy than it was getting thirty years ago...

Re: Execuive Pay...

Really?

All I see is that the tax take has risen, which means the state is getting more of people's pay.

Re: Execuive Pay...

Correct. But in the case of this author it wouldn't do to break down the statistics to disprove one's own argument.

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@Nick

> All I see is that the tax take has risen,

Try here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/apr/25/tax-receipts-1963 for another view, It shows that since the 1960's the overall tax take as a proportion of GDP has always been somewhere in the thiry-percents.Even though during that half-century, the amount we have earned (our wealth?) has increased about fifty-fold.

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Re: Executive Pay...

http://www.epi.org/publication/ib331-ceo-pay-top-1-percent/

it's all laid out there in plain english.

Re: Execuive Pay...

I am pretty sure this is the case.

Also, I was reading a book about hedge funds over the Christmas period, (A Demon of our own Design by Bookstaber) and I've concluded that if anyone is even less reliable on seeing the bigger economic picture than the Government or the TUC, it's a hedge fund trader. I'd listen hard to Mr. Worsthall on lanthanides, but when it comes to take home pay, I rather suspect that the reason that public sector salaries have increased so much at the top end is because outsourcing companies are competing for those people and offering very high pay in order to deplete the public sector of expertise, so it can be claimed that only outsourcing will solve the resulting problems. Which coincidentally is a tactic of hedge funds...corner a resource and create an artificial scrcity, thus driving up prices.

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Re: how the distibuion of pay has changed

I'm sure you would, because that's part of the smoke and mirrors to keep you excited, and get you to the barricades where you can be used as canon fodder to advance the goals of the socialist dictators.

But if you're really looking for some enlightenment, perhaps you should study the materials at the following link:

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/09/defending-the-dream-why-income-inequality-does-not-threaten-opportunity

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Re: Executive Pay...

Now that's something we really shouldn't be doing.

Comparing US statistics on the distribution of pay with UK statistics on the distribution of national income. We've got different countries, with different tax systems, different levels of inequality and we're even talking about different things.

Not really very comparable

Re: Execuive Pay...

False. As you'll read in my post, Reuters's recent article proves that, at least for corporate taxes, government take as gone DOWN in comparison to rising corporate profits.

The only taxes that have gone up are *personal* taxes, which not only effects all income brackets (conveniently, the lower and middle-classes) but also has 'loopholes' for full collection from the upper classes.

The perfect, ideal solution...at least from the perspective of the oligarchs. The wealthy and the corporate interests have gotten you in the exact position that they want you in.

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tl;dr

sorry. Merry new year :)

Re: tl;dr

Tim is a "senior fellow" at the Adam Smith Institute. Rather like Lewis Page on climate change or Andrew Orlowski on the media, you can tell what his point of view is just from the headline and summary. The Wealth of Nations is fantastic for quote mining because it rambles so much that you can get almost any point of view out of it. I can't see the ASI being too impressed about this bit:

"It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expence, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

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Re: tl;dr

The ASI are impressed with the rich paying more. That's because they, or at least Tim, believes that the low pay should not pay any tax. So if the low pay pay 0% tax and the rich pay a tax rate of over 50% then it is true that the rich contribute more in proportion. Finally there is the fact the the top 1% pay over 20% of all income tax.

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Re: tl;dr

That the rich should contribute more than in proportion is why we at the ASI suggest a progressive tax system. For we do indeed suggest one. A flat tax with a large personal allowance (£15k per adult).

The provides, above 15k, a static marginal tax rate of 33% in our proposed system. With a rising average tax rate as incomes rise. The rising average tax rate being the definition of a progressive tax system.

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Re: tl;dr

That is not the definition of progressive taxation.

A progressive system increases the rate as the taxable base amount increases.

As the £15k isn't in the taxable base amount (clue - it isn't taxed) your proposal is proportional - not progressive.

Proportionate taxation as a theory certainly has its merits and many proponents - the main one for me is that it is politically more stable. Maybe you should read some stuff from the Adam Smith institute to provide you with some pretty good ammo for your position rather than trying to pass it off as something else.

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Unhappy

None of the above explains why I haven't had a pay rise in 4 years (so effectively a pay cut), and the small company I work for had to make someone redundant just before Christmas.

Obvious really I guess - it's an engineering company.

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Unhappy

Because they can

Gap between executive and worker pay widening.

Cheap immigrant workers used to undercut workers and temporarily reducing the effects of offshoring. Thus preventing the crunch and government correction needed. No more boom & Bust.

uncertainty in lower levels and so no pay rises.

It was Gordon's Gift to the workers, ignoring wholesale tax avoidance and onshoring were by products.

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Re: None of the above explains why I haven't

Then you mustn't be a very good engineer. I thought engineers were supposed to be good with logic and numbers.

Let's try a simpler example.

Say your company could afford a total compensation package for you of 10,000 units in 2008. Of that 10,000 units, they have to pay 3,000 units directly to the government in taxes. In addition they have to pay for certain things like insurance and workers compensation (non-cash benefits to you) in the amount of 2,000 units. That leaves you with 5,000 units in pay.

Now jump up to 2012 where the company can you 13,000 units. Meanwhile your benefits have gone up to 3000 units. And the taxes the company has to pay directly to the government have gone up to 5,000 units. That means you still only make 5,000 units in pay.

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bollocks indeed

"But like any experts, all of you can tell when someone on the public stage is spouting bollocks."

And I can also tell when someone is spouting it online. As someone above said, superb trolling as per. If your agenda wasn't so depressingly transparent it might even be slightly amusing.

IT Angle

The Blame

Of course, I blame Mrs. Thatcher for all of this. Sadly, the Champagne is still on ice...for now at least.

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Re: The Blame

Personally I blame those good old boys Tony and GB..... Or were you trying to blame somebody for allowing a non IT story in the hallowed pages of the register?

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Re: The Blame

You blame Thatcher? That was 20 to 30 years ago. Why stop there? Why not blame Gladstone? Or how about Pitt the Younger?

Re: The Blame

The article clearly points out that inflation went through the roof in the late 70s and things went downhill from there. Who was in charge in the late 70s?

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Re: The Blame

Nixon was in charge during the relevant period of the 70s. The rest of the world was taken for a ride.

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Facepalm

Re: The Blame

> Who was in charge in the late 70s?

And you think that no-one in the 20+ years since she left office has been in a position to do anything about it? You really credit her with that much power and influence that her policies still shape and control our economy even now?

Wow.

So how long will her influence last then in your opinion? Will she still be to blame in another 20 years time? How about 100 years?

I blame the state of the UK economy at the moment on a combination of Gordon 'Profligate Pillock' Brown and to a slowly increasing extent on the current government. There's been more than enough time since Maggie got booted out for remedial action.

Re: The Blame

I thought she was a half bottle of whisky a day woman...oh, I see what you mean.

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Re: The Blame

"Who was in charge in the late 70s?"

The Saudis. Oh, and the other oil producers - the ones who would never, ever manipulate the futures markets with the help of certain well-known financial institutions.

And surely not for political reasons.

You're welcome.

Oh - and next time The Heritage Foundation or some other grubby think tank oozing intellectual pus pays for a 'feature' like this one, let's at least have that fact acknowledged. Thankyousomuch.

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Re: The Blame

You can hardly blame Thatcher for "the late 70s" as she only took over in May '79.

If you want to know why inflation went through the roof in the late seventies you are going to have to settle for something a bit more complicated than "it was {name your boogie man politician}'s fault". If not - you need to learn how to look up the dates in office of your favourite boogie man politician.

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FAIL

In charge in late 70s.

Maggie come to power in 1979. It was James Callaghan who was in charge in the late 70s. And if you look back to Labour and Tory governments, it is always the time at the end of Labour governments when the economy is worse off.

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Re: since Maggie got booted out for remedial action.

Actually, that's your problem right there. Instead of recognizing how much good she did for you and the rest of the world, you've spent the last 20+ years remediating her actions instead of building on them to increase your productivity.

Sadly, you've been less efficient at it on your side of the pond than we've been on ours. With the result that while you might have started somewhat closer to the Cliffs of Financial Armageddon, it looks like we're going over before you do. Even more unfortunate for you, once we do, you haven't got a chance either.

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Re: The Blame

the price of a barrel of oil from 1971 to 1980.

1971 $3.60

1972 $3.60

1973 $4.75

1974 $9.35

1975 $12.21

1976 $13.10

1977 $14.40

1978 $14.95

1979 $25.10

1980 $37.42

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp

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One or the other

Tim, as JimC points out, you're either a cretin or you think we are. Your figures include all the money that the top nobs skim off as wages, not as profits. Whilst this is econometrically correct, it's entirely bogus when the argument is about fair distribution.

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Re: One or the other

Rich, it's you that is the cretin. If it is "skimmed off as wages" then tax is paid on it, at a high rate what's more. Much harder to avoid tax on wages. Fair distribution, we know what that means, leeching off the back of those who actually work.

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Re: One or the other

It always amuses when people use the word 'fair'. You could say 'fair' is in the eye of the beholder.

For example, you can make tax 'fair' by rationalising it down to a page or two saying that everyone who has an interest in this country (work, residence, investments) pays a given rate on income above (for example) minimum wage), no exceptions or loopholes. Trouble is, you'd never get such a scheme through the politicians. A complex system works well for either side of the political spectrum - on the right, you look after the tax accountants and lawyers, while the left needs to keep plenty of union dues flowing by justifying lots of tax office workers as well as the need to be seen punishing the rich.

As for 'fair distribution', this is even more dodgy to define. Someone who has been able to acquire and exploit a particular (or unique or rare) skill should be rewarded by having more of a share of wealth than someone who won't/can't or has less valuable skills. Is it 'fair' to punish success? To those who aspire to the idea of a 'fair distribution' of the wealth, the answer is yes - after all, it's apparently 'fair' to reduce everyone to the lowest common denominator.

At the end of the day 'fair' is an illusion - life wasn't fair to the dinosaurs, the dodo or the cart builders and lamplighters, but c'est la vie.

Of course, this may not be a popular view, but I'm not fussed - after all, who said life was fair?

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Re: One or the other

Remove the word "fair", upon which you've conveniently fixated, and my observation still stands.

So, to recap without the word that has derailed your logical faculties: the argument is about distribution but the graphs used do not distinguish between remuneration for "capitalist bastards" (note: author's words, not mine) and those at the other end of the scale, they lump both together and compare them with corporate profit.

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Distribution

So removing the word fair leaves just distribution. But on what basis is the distribution carried out? There has to be some formula. Is that formula going to be unfair then? Distribution can either be unfair or fair. Its binary. Any distribution is always carried out on the basis of the creator's beliefs. If Labour want fair distribution they aim it towards the poor to keep them voting Labour. If the Tories want fair distribution they aim it to businesses because they want them to generate more profit to go towards shareholders who then keep voting Tory.

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Re: One or the other @GiveMeMyShootinIrons

You ask: "Is it 'fair' to punish success?"

I'm not getting into any argument over that, but what Britain manages to do so completely is reward failure and incompetence.

I wouldn't have minded drawing GBP450,000 for 54 days' work - plus, no doubt, a decent pension pot.

And then of course, they move on to equally well-paid jobs in some other set-up in the old boys' network.

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Doesn't add up

We here in the "west" have seen the outsourcing and offshoring of manufacturing, services, research and development to other nations around the world over the past three decades, whereas the profits from these experiments were and are pipelined to low tax havens.

The western governments, desperate to kickstart economies and keep growth followed wrong advice from Keynesian economics to borrow money for big projects on one side and to ever more deregulate whole industries and markets on the other:

Keynesianism never works in the long term, if tax receipts don't occur and/or are diverted to other nations or indeed if the work itself is diverted to another country. Milton Friedman's moneytarism does not work in the long term and leads to the rapid rise in commodity prices and excessive liquidity, which caused the housing bubble of 2004-2006 in the US and the inflated prices for food, oil and metal which in my opinion is the real reason for people feeling poor again! So it's not a bunch of nurses, teachers and fire fighters.

So, what's the way of of this? Growth. Simple as that.

We have to look to a country which has been in a stagflation for more than two decades and is burdened with a public dept of 238% of the GDP : Japan. The new prime minister, Shinzō Abe, now wants to realign the priorities of the national bank of Japan and puts economic growth before the containment of inflation. Fair enough, the theory behind this policy are from Michael Dean Woodford, but I think it's quite revolutionary to effectively depart from John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman.

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Re: Doesn't add up; still won't work...

Japan is about to suffer from hyperinflation. Friedman and Keynes were both wrong. The Austiran School will soon be proved correct.

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Pint

Re: Doesn't add up

Your understanding of keynesian theory is deeply flawed as is your assertion that the western nations have followed a keynesian model in recenty decades. You would have to go back to the sixties to see anything like a keynesian policy in Europe - the UK hasn't had a whiff of it since Wilson. There has never been any implementation of a keynesian based policy in the US - it has relentlessly pursued the Hamiltonian policy since for ever and continues to do so. Japan may have exerted closer control over its banks and done lots of public spending since the 80s but not to follow any discernible keynesian theory - it's policy appears to be "throw lots of money at things - after all - how much worse can it get" - the Japanese policy has actually equated more closely to early Leninism than anything else. To equate public spending with Keynesian theory is drivel - public spending forms part of the full range of economic approaches from rule the world Hamiltonianism to despot in trouble printing of monopoly money.

The core element of keynesian theory is not public spending - it is balance. It acknowledges that public spending can have a role (for example during economic downturns) but insists on balance - public spending should be reduced during periods of economic growth - whereas western politicians have used periods of growth and prosperity to skyrocket public spending on their pet projects. The guy practically invented the economic medum term.

It is this element of balance that is also missing from international economic relations. Keynes begged the IMF to create mechanisms to balance deficits and surpluses between nations before they became so imbalanced that they endangered the whole system. Everyone knew it made sense but the US said no so it didn't happen. The balancing mechanism we got instead is dumping a country's currency in the toilet and lauging at all the poor starving people.

In the 90s we jumped straight from the Friedman/Waters notion that control of money supply was the key to controlling your economy via suppression of inflation (without acknowledging that those inflationary pressures were there for a reason) to the even dafter notion dreamed up by (it seems to me) a six year old explaining how money works that you could have constant economic growth by monetising more and more activities and creating free credit for all. The fact that inflation was remarkably easy to control during this period of credit fuelled "growth" should have had alarm bells ringing all over the place - yes - we were using the despot's method of economic control - printing lots of monopoly money and the only reason we weren't seeing horrifying inflation rates was that we were storing it all up on credit cards.

And the solution is - "quantitative easing" - i.e. people stopped believing that the monopoly money is real so we need to keep printing more till they start believing it again.

Happy new year

Pint

Re: Doesn't add up

"your assertion that the western nations have followed a keynesian model in recenty decades." - maybe I should have mentioned here the worldwide resurgence of interest in Keynesian economics after the 2008 recession (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics_in_United_States_2008#In_the_United_States_and_Great_Britain), but all I'm saying is any public spending, keynesian or not, does not help a national economy if the work, the tax returns, the profits or a combination of these are going offshore.

"even dafter notion...that you could have constant economic growth by monetising more and more activities" - I can only agree on this.

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Re: Doesn't add up

It is worth noting that about the only thing that article in wikipedia gets right is a small mention of the point of intervention in Keynesian theory - to work towards increasing employment levels during a recession.

It is not about fiscal stimulus for the sake of it or about increasing economic volumes per se - it is about keeping your economy and your people in a state to take advantage of the cyclical upswing.

The rest of it tends to swallow the "New classical economics"* orthodoxy that Keynesian theory is about an ever increasing state control of the economy.

* That thought free zone which is most attractive to politicians because it absolves policy makers of any responsibility for anything whatsoever - remember all those nice charts about M1 and inflation - wonder what happened to them? They got conveniently forgotten when politicians saw that NOT controlling the money supply was the real vote winner and got them off the hook for all kinds of shit.

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Rate this article: 1/5

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Upvote this post if you think it's a crap article.

Downvote if you think it's a great article (sorry about the perverse logic but I do think it's a crap article).

Copy this idea on other articles if you think this is a good idea (I am not Apple, I will not sue).

Happy New Year.

Howabout..

If we abolished all forms of tax avoidance, evasion and dodgy corporate offshore financial practices then surely we could balance the countries books? Because at the moment I see no real recovery for our finances if we continue to allow most of our spending to end up in Luxembourg, Ireland or the Cayman Islands.

Is there a prosperous way out for this country if this doesn't stop? Or are we just going to have a 60 year depression ending in a gated Plutocracy, with 95% of all workers earning the minimum wage. After the great Resouce Wars of course.

I'm just looking for one decent forecast that shows us a way out.

Re: Howabout..

I hate to burst your bubble, John, but we are in for a round of inflation the likes of which has not been seen since Jimmy Carter was president. Everything they teach about economics in school today is blatantly wrong. Don't buy gold, buy something useful like copper pipe. The price on copper items will shoot up about as fast as the price of gold and sliver, but the governments will not be able to force you to sell it to them at their price the way FDR did back in the 1930's. You want to know what is going on today? It's pre-world war II happening all over again. Hit the history books. They are an eye-opener.

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Re: Howabout..

John, money is like water: it will find the cracks.

One of the issues Obama's people raised in both election campaigns is that American businesses are more interested in investing offshore. Well, partly: they're interested in making money, and sometimes your own country isn't the best place to invest in Doing X.

But compounding this is that US companies will have to pay taxes on profits made overseas when the money is brought back into the US ... money that's already been taxed. So if you export your goods or services overseas, you are taxed in that country then taxed when it's brought back. Better, from the company's view, to keep it overseas to invest and make more money.

The obvious solution here is to reduce or eliminate that tax so companies will be more willing to invest in their own country. However, Obama's view is that we should raise taxes on corporations to pay for more government ... so now they'll invest LESS in America.

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Re: Howabout..

Can't agree Armando....... The current incarnation of capitalism has throughly corrupted politics, the best place to invest is always somewhere else, and when doing so antics such as royalties are abused to make profitable companies appear to be basket cases, and therefore no tax is paid, pay the minimum wage concievable in any given market and all the money goes out of the country "invested" in whilst making use of the resources the tax payer paid for...... It makes no sense, is unsustainable and like the author of thie article is simply wrong.

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Re: Howabout..

Easy way - legalise all drugs and tax them. (Keep the quality high and at a price that cannot be matched by the criminals.) Overnight it would turn into a much smaller problem (Like we have with fake and cheap alcohol / cigs being sold in council estates.) People being able to grow hemp to make paper (Faster and Cheaper than using what they use now) might upset the status quo but it needs to be upset and the solution needs to be radical. (Cuts won't work not done in the way they are trying now anyway.)

A solution that works (Because it will involve making a fairly big change) will never be popular with the Daily Mail reading types.

The problem we have is the baby boomers basically who were given everything by their parents generation (Who also took part in a war from them and had a really hard time) have left nothing for their children and took everything for themselves. I was in a pub on Christmas Eve with a fair few people of my dad's generation I was close to punching a few of them. (They retired at 50 on really good pensions that cannot ever be reduced). I think each generation should have it better and easier than the last due to enhancements in Technology / Medical stuff.

What we should be doing is trying to reduce the amount people have to work to 4 days.

(My grandfather's generation used to work 4 1/2). Instead of just creaming off the profits to pay for the people who went to school and university with Cameron. (Clegg is worse though because it outright betrayed everyone who voted for him).

People working for the Public Sector did so on the grounds that they would make less whilst they were working in return for a good pension. (My mother when she left university had 4 friends with the same results as her - 1st Pure Maths - She went into teaching because she wanted to do it but she could have been an acturer / finance director of big PLC's / Professor of Maths - screwing people over at the end of their lives is not a good thing to do.)

I know a retired fireman (Over 70) gets an absolutely insane pension keeps going up. Same as police they retire early if they want to (With a full pension) and then get another job. No reason they couldn't do a desk bound job. (At the moment they just get another job.) That is nothing like teachers.

It is going to get to the point where especially in London the only teachers are immigrants as they are the only people who could and are willing to work for what is on offer.

The only way to improve is to invest in the young. It is only going to get worse if really expensive private schools are the only places with good teachers it won't work.

Maybe we get a meteor hitting the earth or another ice age starting that changes things when people realise how pointless things are these days.

(My parents will get a huge cash injection also when their parents die (They were born during the war and had nothing and lived in council estates and worked very hard and ended life pretty rich) for people starting now with nothing something like that just isn't possible. If your family is very poor now it is far more likely to stay so no matter what they do which is bad.

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