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back to article Ballmer predicts 400 MILLION Win 8 Surface and Lumia fumblers

Steve Ballmer's back in the numbers game, this time predicting sales of Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 kit to draw in application developers. Ballmer is reported to have claimed at the event that "close" to 400 million Windows phones and tablets will be running Windows Phone 8 and Windows 8. He didn't say when, though. …

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Re: MS need to shed Ballmer

MS's share price is going nowhere, in spite of huge profits, because the company is stuck with two legacy products, and a load of junk. According to a recent report in the FT, Apple's price has grown at an average of 27% per year for many years.

Balmer throws chairs at his staff: he is not a “people person”.

Of course he's passionate about Microsoft, he's got a billion dollars worth of MS shares that he can't sell because so doing would kill the share price.

Balmer is a one-trick pony who can scare sales people out of their share-ownership-induced comfort zones into actually selling. It takes more than this to make a good CEO.

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Re: MS need to shed Ballmer

"Balmer throws chairs at his staff: he is not a “people person”."

Originally it was rumoured that he'd thrown a chair across the office when someone told him they were going to work for Google. Now chair throwing is apparently an established fact, a recurruring thing, and at actually targeted at people. In a few more years, he'll be using a custom built catapult to launch sofas at people's kids.

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Re: MS need to shed Ballmer (@Mark)

Verizon thought it was all about apps. The main ad campaign for the Droid (on Verizon) was all about how it too had apps - you didn't need an iPhone for apps.

People aren't locked in to platforms because of x,y,z market share statistics? Buzz, no, wrong. Apple's share is falling, but their numbers are increasing - because the market is growing. Those locked in to one system have to consider their investment in that platform before switching, this aids retention. Changing share is irrelevant, it is how long you keep the same customer.

Google/Apple shouldn't have bothered because other platforms had more software - nope, wrong again. Google and Apple both went for the integrated app store, which had not been done before. This gave their phones a massive usability advantage over other smart phones. "Sure, you can put any Win CE app on your WP5 device, just pug in this cable, fire up …..." zzzzz.

Apple 7th to market with the iphone? Nope, Apple first to market with a usable smart phone - they invented the sector. Other smart phones existed before, but they didn't engage the average user - Apple made a computer on your phone easier to use than a regular phone, whilst other smart phones were crap. Google were second to market, and some of their vendors - HTC in particular at the start, Samsung more so now - picked up good market share from other smart phone - WP in particular.

People will continue to buy normal PCs? Buzz, no, even Gartner predict that people are not going to be buying many PCs over the next year. Besides which, most licenses go to business.

You're right, Zune was not a flop, it just didn't sell anywhere except the US, where it sold for one holiday season, took a 3% share of MP3 players and then tanked, prompting retailers to stop stocking the device.

Xbox is the one piece of consumer electronics that MS has popularly succeeded at, but as a whole, MS's Entertainment & Devices division - Xbox, Zune, WP - consistently loses money.

But no, keep going, its good.

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Trollface

Re: MS need to shed Ballmer

Quiet, Ballmer.

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Re: MS need to shed Ballmer

That approach doesn't apply when you are a big player like Microsoft, Apple, IBM, Sony, etc.

The video game market had seen how many companies launch platforms already when Sony decided to get in? And after Sony, Microsoft jumped in as well to become one of the major players. They had a rough start but could afford to learn from their mistakes.

A company mainly known for large construction projects in Asia decided quite abruptly to go into the automobile business. Hyundai has done alright in that field despite numerous existing players.

How many companies had offered smartphones before Apple launched the iPhone?

Do you have any idea how many companies were selling desktop micro-computers when IBM decided it might be a business for them?

When you're already a big player in general, you don't shy away for new product lines.

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Re: MS need to shed Ballmer

> when Apple get 5% of a market, they're hailed as a runaway success; when MS get 10%, it's a "flop" just because it wasn't number one.

Apple were hailed as a success because it made large profits from that 5% or so.

MS WP7 is a flop because in spite of paying Nokia $1billion plus spending large amounts on advertising leading to a huge loss it has not even reached 5% and the current products are being remaindered into the bargain bin at a further loss .

> Also consider the massively successful X Box

They may have sold lots of machines but the division is still running at a loss most quarters and is several billion down in total.

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Windows

@Tom 38

Agreed.

You forgot to mention another (IMO) very important issue though; it seems to me as if Ballmer doesn't even realize what attracts some of his customers to use the products the company produces. Would that be a small aspect of their total services then I could understand it, but this is (IMO) a major key asset which he ignores time and time again....

I'm talking about the timespan in which Microsoft manages to support their products. Whether you like or dislike Windows I'm sure we can agree on one thing: keeping an OS alive for approx. 13 years (XP) and supplying a predicted lifespan of 7 years for Windows 7 (released 2009, support lasts till 2018) is an impressive feat. In fact, I'm sure that this is something why some people would favour Microsoft software products over others.

Now take the Windows Phone... How hard could it be to imagine that the release of WP7 would attract such kind of customers, especially given the strict hardware demands MS laid out ?

Yet it seems that was too much for Ballmer. Released in 2010 and nearly EOL'd in 2012, that's only 2 years. Given the fact that developers need to cough up $100,-/year to be even allowed to access their own phone for personal development one has to wonder here... How likely is it that when WP8 is out people would still develop software for WP7.5? So IMO this is effectively killing the WP7 market.

I think Ballmer doesn't even realize that this is heavily affecting his market. I'm a WP7.5 user and I'm still pretty happy with my phone. But I know many others who aren't anymore... I follow several WP related forums and other media, and I can say this move has stirred some very bad blood.

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Re: @Tom 38

"Yet it seems that was too much for Ballmer. Released in 2010 and nearly EOL'd in 2012, that's only 2 years. "

It's not EOL'd. Nokia are bringing out a new Windows 7.8 phone before the end of the year and new apps will continue to be released for it and it is still officially supported and you will see updates for it continue. Plus, a large number of people are simply not going to care - it's a nice smartphone that still does everything they wanted when they bought it. Win8 has different hardware requirements. You would have been the first to complain if Win7 phones had been released with massively over-powered hardware at vastly higher cost for the sake of being ready for a new OS two years in the future. (Actually Bob Vivstakin would be first, but you take my point).

"Given the fact that developers need to cough up $100,-/year to be even allowed to access their own phone for personal development one has to wonder here... How likely is it that when WP8 is out people would still develop software for WP7.5? So IMO this is effectively killing the WP7 market."

$100 is a trivial business cost quite frankly. I charge more than that per hour for development work. No-one other the most casual, doing it for fun programmer, is going to skip out on releasing software for the sake of $100.

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WTF?

Re: MS need to shed Ballmer

Exec summary: someone really needs to read Vanity Fair's EYE-OPENING article about MS/BALLMER'S LOST DECADE from August:

How Microsoft Lost Its Mojo: Steve Ballmer and Corporate America's Most Spectacular Decline - MIcrosoft's Lost Decade

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2012/08/microsoft-lost-mojo-steve-ballmer#

------

"Oh dear. Another clueless Ballmer hater. Why do you hate him?

How do _you_ know what kind of job he is doing?

Is he a good people person? Good at keeping their OpEx down?

You haven't got a scooby doo whether he is good or not."

Oh dear, another clueless MS shill...

We ALL _SEE_ how BAD he's doing: look at their shitty, half-baked products (W8 w/ its committee-designed crap, its junk UI, WTF???), the flat MSFT, the utter lack of interest in their phone etc

Who cares about opex when you are BEING PUSHED OUT in several markets? HE IS A COLOSSAL FAILURE, period.

Beancounters, like you and your idol, this angry bald fatty, will never understand the point behind leading the market...

"Microsofts numbers have been fantastic of late. They have for the first time in a very long time got a very decent and clearly matching and consistent looking portfoilio from Xbox, Phone and PC."

You mean CONSISTENTLY GENERATING LOSSES, constantly LOSING MONEY on ALL THESE THINGS?

I mean like the Xbox division that makes HALF A BILLION LOSS in half a year?

Of course, it's normal there - first Xbox made BILLIONS IN LOSSES then 360 had 30% DEATH RATE after launch thanks to a design error (google the infamous RROD) and sales are falling flat for over a year now...

Windows Phone, the mobile OS that's the butt of every joke in the industry, the classic example of an UTTER FAILURE?

FYI these are facts that everyone - except you, apparently - knows very well... the fact that you WP as a success story is hilarious by itself. :)

"You can't see MS catching up on Apps, when many AAA Apps are available and WP8 will have a similar dev platform to W8RT making ports simple. (Even the Unreal Engine will run on the phone, and ports of Games using it fairly trivial to move over)"

RRRRRRRRRRRRRiiiiiiiiiiight, trivial... let me put this way: this comment neatly sums up your level of understanding. :D

"Unlike many CEOs, he's a really interesting character. The IT world would be very boring with chair throwing Monkey boy. He seems deeply passionate about Microsoft from what I can see, so good luck to him."

Hahh, this is must be the lamest brownnosing I have ever read. :)

Yeah, Ballmer is "interesting" - provided you find a loudmouthed, technically challenged, ill-tempered, angry, bald fatty millionaire 'interesting'... you aren't 30-y old gold digger blondie, are you, dear?

Are you saying the IT world is boring because he is throwing chairs or what...? If so, I agree, he's boring; like some backyard loudmouth, he's thirsty for attention with little clue what to say so he says something obviously stupid, see article above.

"Deeply passionate" - is this the latest euphemism at MS to describe the fact that Ballmer needs to STFU and badly needs anger-management treatment?

"I want MS to be successful, as successful companies make great products for *US* the consumer."

Then you better off quickly stop praising Ballmer, the beancounter and his lieutenants (Sinofsky et al) and start praising people with vision and understanding... good ol' Billy G was annoying with his whiny monologues but the man at least had a deep understanding of technology and was willing to lead, head a vision etc.

"The surface is not being made for business success on its own, but rather showing OEMs what is possible if they apply themselves. Tablets currently are CONSUMPTION devices, the surface, RT and W8 on tablet will mean we can consume AND WORK/CREATE! I know many people who want to get one, myself included. I can throw out my iPad - which I barely use (once the initial gadget lust wore off).

Childish MS hating in comments, never stops does it. Kids, should allow em on the Internet. ;)"

Clueless nonsense abound - you sure do not sound like someone who can create anything meaningful on Windows...

...in short Ballmer or his super-buearucratic, creativity-killing, employee-alienating, anti-collaborative, uber-committee-managerial culture is like CANCER at MS, it is slowly killing it from the inside, he needs to be removed, along with all the metastasized parts - so we can have the healthy parts grow again.

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Is this guy a Mafia?

If you are ceo of a public company, you can't joke with numbers, predictions. That is what I know with my minimal financial knowledge.

This guy keeps joking, some investors keeps buying the numbers he make up and nobody including dead serious financial guys and lawyers don't dare to sue him.

So, is this guy somehow blackmailing them?

Seriously, even Zuckerberg didn't say "we will hit 2 billion users, bitch" like stuff after they went public.

BillG, please come back, we forgive you.

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Anonymous Coward

Forgive BillG?

Erm, no, we don't.

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Someone

I am saying this from an Android phone, you wouldn't want google& Apple to dominate entire IT industry.

If this guy doesn't go away, it will happen. No matter whatever cool Linux or bsd you run, it will effect you too, like everyone, in real life.

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Does a picture of Ballmer exist where he does not look a complete arsehole?

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FAIL

Urban Myth

Nope its an Urban Myth. The nearest thing you will get is a playmobil scene recreation.

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presumably he means windows 8 or it's successors

cos windows 9 for the PC has gotta be following as close behind 8 as 7 was hot-on-the-heels of vista

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Holmes

350Million PC Sold with windows 8 but...

how many get re-imaged and run

windows 7 - especially corporate builds

Linux - for those who bit their teeth and pay the MS Tax

XP - for the diehards.

OS-X - well, there are a few Hackintosh fanbois out there aren't there

etc

They might sell that many but how many run it after a week? That is the key question.

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Mushroom

Re: 350Million PC Sold with windows 8 but...

Windows 7 - corporates - most of them for now - consumers near zero

Linux - Even nearer zero

XP lots of corporates, no consumers

OS-X - no one. Use virtual box.

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Re: 350Million PC Sold with windows 8 but...

Pretty much every big XP shop is preparing to shift to Windows 7 as the plug is pulled on XP support in 2014. I got a lot of work in 2009 and 2010 because of the deadline on Windows 2000. I expect a similar round of new hardware deployments and reimaging of machines in service for less than half their warranty period as the XP deadline looms.

Of the organizations I regularly do work for, I know of at least a half dozen who have already got all of their apps fully verified under Windows 7 and could start shifting over at short notice. These account for nearly two million seats combined. For these companies the cost is entirely in the conversion labor. Their licensing level lets them run anything from Microsoft they choose.

If that experience is typical, then XP should disappear almost entirely from the corporate desktop before the deadline in 2014.

In the SMB segment, it is far more convenient to switch sooner than later. They're much less likely to have custom apps and the free XP Mode handles nearly everything that doesn't have an update to run properly as a native install.

As for people buying a new Win7 box and installing Linux, please. Do we really have to entertain that fantasy any more? When the slice on the pie chart is so small as to require its label to be external, or the item is simply lumped under 'other,' you should realize it isn't a significant market force.

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IT Angle

Im not a programmer...

So dont shoot me for my completely rediculous and stupid idea, but would it be possible for MS to build some sort of program that would allow the easy transition of apps generated for iOS and android to WP.

Iknow flash made a similar program to convert flash appsto run on iOS but could MS do similar?

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Re: Im not a programmer...

Not ridiculous at all. In fact, it already exists.

www.bluestacks.com

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verdict is still out, haven't tried Win8 yet, but would like to see their tablet and the final cost. I think they are gonna have a hell of a time at ti though, too many devices out there that could possibly be better. hell, Amazon is suppose to announce their new tablets and "phone" today. (Reg, where is your report on this? You throw Apple rumors around all the time)

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Windows

I hate the way Microsoft deliberately confuses the market...

There are many different devices; NT based Windows 8, phone based windows phone, and tablet based Windows RT. Microsoft seems to think that calling them all Windows 8 means they're all the same.

They're not the same thing and never will be.

Lies, damn lies and Microsoft PR bullshit.

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Re: I hate the way Microsoft deliberately confuses the market...

You haven't read much about Windows Phone 8, have you? The overlap for developers with Windows 8 and Windows RT is far higher than with Windows Phone 7.x. It is not at all unreasonable for a developer to look upon them as all facets of a single ecosystem for selling products.

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Re: I hate the way Microsoft deliberately confuses the market...

Just like iPhone & iPad applications are totally interchangeable. Not.

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640k is enough

I think they will have to settle for the lower number.

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Anonymous Coward

I guess anyone who actually wants a Lumia with Win 8

I guess anyone who actually wants a Lumia with Win 8 will be in quite a good position to get a really good deal.

They just need to say they like the look of the things, but are really worried about Microsoft's record of dropping systems like a hot potato and lack of upgrades to the new system and lack of software compatibility between systems.

Windows Mobile 6. Kin, Windows phone 7.

Fool me once....

Top of the range Lumia for the price of a bottom end one perhaps?

I'm sure given the situation, you'd just have to hold out and they'd fold.

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Happy

Haha!!! Ballmer predicts 395 million surface tablets

Sounds fair, I've "preordered" 6 WoA tablets and one x86 from a Microsoft guy I know. At $200 a pop for WoA, I'm keeping a few on hand to give as birthday gifts to people I like.

What bothers me is that 395 million surface tablets sounds low. Or does he figure that 16 million people will ask Nokia for their money back for making such an UGLY ASS PHONE?

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Re: Haha!!! Ballmer predicts 395 million surface tablets

> At $200 a pop for WoA, I'm keeping a few on hand to give as birthday gifts to people I like.

The price of $200 or so for Surface RT seems to be with a 2 year 'Live' contract for $30 or $40 a month. Were you going to pay that for them, or will they become 'people who no longer like you' ?

It sounds like 'the gift that keeps on taking'.

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Anonymous Coward

Silverlight

Microsoft are trying to attract software developers? Are these the same set of software developers who felt betrayed by Microsoft's about-turn on Silverlight?

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Anonymous Coward

The Surface Pro looks pretty tempting

..if I can nuke Windows 8 and stuck Linux on there, assuming it's not full of horrid proprietary lockdown. The industrial design looks fantastic, and it's going to be a lot slicker and lighter than any Ultrabook.

Actually, with Doze still on it, if I could add an external drive and my Rane audio interface, it would be a great portable machine for Serato, too- a lot less shoulder snapping than my old MBP. However, I am not really liking what I have seen of WIn 8 from playing with betas.

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Re: The Surface Pro looks pretty tempting

You should be able to put Linux on the pro version as you want. The RT, being ARM-based, is almost certainly going to have a locked bios that will prevent installing a different operating system. Possibly if someone produces a signed Linux bootloader, I'm not sure.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: The Surface Pro looks pretty tempting

Yeah, though I am a little wary of some funny variant of EFI that needs certificates.. The RT doesn't interest me at all, I have an iPad 3 and a Nexus 7 already.

(What? I like toys? Shush)

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Anonymous Coward

Few

A "few" is a subjective term that depends on the context. In the context of 10, a few might be six. In the context of 375 million that could be 50 or one hundred million.

A few is really only 2 or 3 in any context. And certainly not 6/10. Writer is and ejit and I stopped reading there.

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Big Brother

23456

All I needed to read was "Ballmer predicts ..."

Good for a laugh.

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