What is the Nokia Secret Plan if Windows 8 isn't Windows gr8?
Nokia’s new chairman says the company has an alternative strategy prepared, in case Microsoft’s new version of Windows Phone doesn’t live up to expectations. Except he won’t say what it is. Risto Siilasmaa made the comments last week to Finnish broadcaster YLE. Analysts have been getting nervous for some time, and Microsoft has …
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Android HAS to be Plan B ..
Either that or the whole W8 thing is a cunning ruse to help Microsoft aquire Nokia for a song ..
Re: Android HAS to be Plan B ..
No it doesn't, there are other options. They could license the BB10 OS. If RIM don't screw it up it should be a far superior OS than IOS or Android given it's QNX core.
Or they just evolve the series 40, move up to Java ME 7 when it's ready and put series 40 software on smartphone caliber hardware.
Re: Android HAS to be Plan B ..
Not that cunning. Everyone has been saying that since Elop arrived!
Re: Android HAS to be Plan B ..
Web OS is now free, and HP is just releasing the GUI for the pad version as opensource as well!!!
Microsoft Windows Image Problem.
I don't think it matters if Windows 8 isn't great, I think the problem is that the requirements of a mobile phone's operating system are very different to that of a desktop PC. Reliability is far more important, everybody hates their phones being unreliable. Windows might be a associated with a lot of things but reliability certainly isn't one of them (to the general public, I'm ignoring IT professionals which have windows 7 PCs which never crash, because they know how to use a computer).
As far as Nokia goes, I think they've already signed over their soul to satan. Which is a shame, as far as their brand goes, at least outside of the US, they shouldn't be in this mess.
They've suffered from no good overall strategy for a long time, and unfortunately when they did get around to choosing a single strategy it was too late and they chose the wrong one. Maybe they have some sort of backup plan, but I think I agree with the article that they've burnt all their bridges and the chairman is selling snake oil.
Re: Microsoft Windows Image Problem.
> Windows might be a associated with a lot of things but reliability certainly isn't one of them ...
Windows 8 has been said to be a rewrite of the kernel to make it modular. Any release will be a beta until SP2.
Windows RT is not only based on that rewritten kernel, but is on hardware and configurations (dual core SoCs) that have not been used by Microsoft before. This will be a double beta of both the kernel and of the implementation.
Windows Phone 8 is apparently a derivative of Windows RT and will be running on the dual core SoCs plus will have phone and other features distinct from RT and different than WP7. A triple beta.
I like the look of these new Nokia phones and of WP7, and when my contract is up I will consider them. I will also consider a few different Androids, as I have been an Android user since the G1 and I'm happyh with it, but I owe my loyalty to noone and will jump platform if it benefits me.
So I will weigh up things like whether or not the phone does everything I need, battery life, cost etc. The lack of certainty over the future of the phone and software will be a mark against it, but we'll see what happens.
I have some time left yet, so the W8 phones might be out by then. However, my point is that I think MS have made a mistake in leaving too many unanswered questions about the future, at a time they need users, app developers and hardware makers to invest in their platform. I'd like to see a choice of more than 2 mainstream platforms, whatever anyone thinks of Windows.
I have a friend (a former Nokia and Symbian employee) who claims that WP on Lumia is the best mobile phone experience he has ever had.
On the other hand I won't have one because I don't like the idea that MS get to dictate what I can use my device for and what I can attach it to (I have a bunch of other kit and services that adhere to open standards that MS will not support).
Obvious
Plan A) Windows Phone 7
Plan B) Windows Phone 7.5
Plan C) Windows Phone 8
Plan D) Windows Phone do the Fandango
Plan E) Be bought by Microsoft
Re: Obvious
your plan E should be plan B
MS buys Nokia keeps patents dumps everything else, Elop gets a big payrise and welcome back party (oh you never really left?)
Secret plan
Does it involve seizing his golden parachute and crying 'Geronimo!'?
Obvious to me
Of course Elop doesn't know plan B...
Plan B is to dump Elop, get somebody sane as CEO and start hiring those maemo engineers back :)
Re: Obvious to me
Unfortunately it was the Nokia board who decided the WP strategy and appointed Elop to implement it.
I hear rumours that the shareholders are all American hedge funds, so presumably from their view (where the success of Nokia was invisible to them, since by 2011 it was all in China and India, and not at all considered by US based web pundits) something drastic needed doing to save the company, such as partnering with the obvious safe hands of MS.
Nobody got fired for partnering with MS. Well at least until now, although quite a few people have been made redundant or bankrupt. There's always a chance for someone to be first though, if the Nokia board manage to get their skates on and fire him before they are redundant or bankrupt.
Re: Obvious to me
And take a darned close look at the N9 to see why some folks were/are desperate to get it in markets where it was permitted to be sold ;)
Re: Obvious to me
@hewbass - people do get fired for choosing MS. Senior execs got fired after the london stock exchange windows experiment disaster. They reverted to Linux after losing a trillion when the system was unrecoverable after a crash, due to .NET/Windows being unreliable.
Re: Obvious to me
@Eadon - Yes, with a healthy BUT... The problems with the LSE software were down to the software sitting on the MS systems, not MS' software. There were also some pretty hairy (ie: headline grabbing) problems with the Linux system they installed too.
The Nokia board let an ex-Microsoft board member become it's CEO. Now we all know what happens to people that do business with Microsoft, they get eaten alive. And this is exactly what is happening, Microsoft, via their chum, Elop, are absolutely destroying Nokia, like they destroyed countless other companies before them, including, in the mobile space, Danger. Remember Kin? They swapped out Java for .NET and it was an embarassing FAIL. So Nokia let the wolf into it's house and now it's practically dead. MS may be hoping to buy it cheap, for patents, given how MS's new business model is to be a patent troll, and, simultaneously, to attack Android (which has a Linux kernel). It's tragic, Nokia were a great European company. They were doing badly before Elop arrived, but after Elop arrived, their decline has massively accellerated.
True. Nokia had rather started to implode before the arrival of Elop.
Their customer support and quality control had become dire. The moment they introduce OTA updates the thought it perfectly acceptable to ship alpha firmware. I should have seen this coming with the N95, but they finally got their act together with the firmware, and it was (and is) a great little phone.
Those that bought the N97 were just left to hang out and dry. Complain about it in the forums and you were hit with the mod hammer for "disrespecting Nokia". Basically they disappeared up their own backside.
That's when I jumped ship after 10+ years of owning nothing but Nokias and went Android, where I am quite happy to remain with a wide range of suppliers wanting my business. A few months later Elop arrived and I smiled to myself and muttered "serves you right". To be honest, even if Nokia did ship an Android phone, I don't have any confidence in their hardware or customer service any more.
N97 - bizarre true tale
Even as late as the end of last year new hires in Nokia were still being given a company ra-ra brochure which highlighted the success of both N97 (widely regarded by Nokia's own engineers as a disgrace and a suicide pill) and the Symbian Foundation (yes, the one that was closed over a year previously).
When a firm suffers from a persistent and fundamental disconnect from reality even in its internal comms then it's hard to see a happy ending. Or - more harshly - the happy ending is that it should die and be replaced with something better.
Another one living in the past
Stop comparing these old pre-N8 devices with current Nokia devices. Majority o/t Symbian devices are great. I was a Windows Mobile user for ages until I got my first Nokia. A C7-00. And I loved it. It was fast, stable, could record calls, USB-sync to outlook far more reliable than WM6.x+activesync, proper file manager build in, great multitasking, fantastic music player with FM-transmitter. All in a convenient pocketable 3.5" package. I now use a Nokia 701 and this is IMHO for that price the best all-round phone you can get. Bloody fast, loud, fantastic screen, feels great in hand, full bluetooth+NFC, great wifi and call reception, full 2-way automatic call recording, full and reliable USB and BT syncing with outlook. I just love it.
The problem is that Nokia has a lousy marketing division whom have no idea how to sell the devices. I can sell more Nokia's by just SHOWING people how easy it all is then they can with all the MSFT money behind them. The wrong people at the wrong place.
"Nokia’s comeback has had everything: lots of press, good reviews, everything except sales"
Because money can buy "lots of press, good reviews", but if your product is shit, then outside American (which always falls for "lots of press, good reviews"), you won't sell very much at all.
Re: "Nokia’s comeback has had everything: lots of press, good reviews, everything except sales"
This is why everyone gave rave reviews to Windows ME, Microsoft Bob, Windows Mobile etc.
The thought process of you, and people like you, is as follows:
1. Is review of MSFT product bad?
2. If yes, reviewer is clean. If no, reviewer is ONE OF THEM.
Re: "Nokia’s comeback has had everything: lots of press, good reviews, everything except sales"
"your product is shit"
Unfortunatly in the case of the Lumia 800 it is shit indeed. Although majority labeled the L800 as the best WP7-phone. It's bloody fragile, has a horrible pentile screen, crippled bluetooth stack, no proper local PC syncing. I think the N9 is a much better executed job while the Lumia 800 looks to me like a rush-job by crappy chinese Compal.
Oh wait... it IS a rush-job done by crappy Chinese Compal.
Re: "Nokia’s comeback has had everything: lots of press, good reviews, everything except sales"
The lumia is fragile? There is a video on cnet of someone hammering a nail into a piece of wood, with the screen of the phone.
Fragile? I think not.
Stand Aside...
Bob Shitpeas / Barry Vistakin - can we get your take on this article ASAP so we can get on with discussing it rationally?
TVM.
Re: Stand Aside...
What's to discuss?
Windows Phone had already failed. The handful of users that were stupid enough to believe that Nokia and Microsoft would look afer them and give them a upgrade path to Windows Phone 8 and it's new app format had all be screwed over.
The only Plan B is to let it quick with whatever you can get your hands on.
Re: Stand Aside...
Unfortunately I think it's too late now even for Android to save them. Microsoft raped them, then poisoned the wells so thoroughly that even if they were booted out, there's no way to turn round by recruiting the staff back, spending a fortune reviving their market image etc, before the cash runs out. This mysterious plan must be a firesale before bankruptcy.
Re: Stand Aside...
Not heard much out of Dogged on this one? Any thoughts on a Plan B or is Plan A working just fine.
Have we got an extra AC today?
Plan B
Right now the only valid plan B is for Nokia to have secret talks to Google about joining the Android market in the event Win Phone 8 tanks.
I truly cannot see anything else offering them a genuine lifeline than to stop putting all their eggs in the M$ basket.
Re: Plan B
Oh please. Android is not the solution.
If they go for Android then they'd still be paying MSFT tax. Just as e.g. Samsung, LG and HTC do.
They had their own Lunix based OS (harmattan) which was very well executed. It had the potential to become the only real iOS killer and could bridge generic consumers and Linux-geeks.
As for S40. That's a feature phone OS which was to be replaced by S^3. It had been on life-support for ages and is only resurrected because Nokia's agreement with Microsoft forbids them to persue another smartphone OS for the next 3 years. Nokia is tied with chains to MSFT until at least late 2013 or early 2014. All this "plan B" stuff is nonsense.
Plan A has failed
I'd buy a Nokia Android. It would at least keep the company alive while they indulged Elop's fantasy about the MS ecosystem. Nokia should then look at Amazon for inspiration, and create their own Android ecosystem until such time as the MS-ites are forced out.
Nokia's Plan B
I could get in trouble for leaking this, but the plan involves a really good Windows Phone 7-styled Android launcher. We'll just release a firmware update and pretend it is from Microsoft.
If that doesn't work we'll just bump the version number up in Microsoft's latest Windows Phone 7 drop and claim it is a new version.
You didn't hear that from me.
The Osborne Effect
Elop's strategy, like MSFT, has always been to deal with bad news by releasing news of an, often mythical, hot new product that will reverse the company's fortunes, save the planet, smash the evil empire of Infinity Loop. This is known as the Osborne Effect (after Osborne computers, not Ozzy) and he seems to have done this a lot in the past (Juniper etc)
Mind you, it could be a lot worse. Imagine if Elop decides that the best way out of Nokia's crisis is a merger with RIM?
MS will buy them (or partially)
The moment the share price props low enough or when Nokia have burnt all their cash and are close to collapse MS will step in and buy the patent portfolio then use it in the usual MS way.
I see no way out for Nokia as the Chinese manufactures will crush them.
Stephen Elop should do the decent thing and walk the plank into shark infested waters for being the most incompetent captain since Francesco Schettino, he broke both the Osbourne and Ratner rules of no-no business practice simultaneously.
Re: MS will buy them (or partially)
How low?
US$2.13 at the moment.
Next quarter will be even more dire than this past quarter, so expect the market to factor that in the price soon. NOK will then be a delisting candidate, and will be forced to go OTC, which probably means MS steps in gets them for nothing, which was always Plan A IMHO.
Re: MS will buy them (or partially)
US$1.84 and another 4%+ waxed today.
Looks like it will be OTC for NOK quite soon.
Plan B
I think Nokia's Plan B is to release a series of critically-acclaimed Hip hop / acoustic / soul / rap songs and... oh, wait. Sorry. Got confused there.
Do 'customers' actaully matter here?
MS and Nokia appeared to have developed a mind set where ditching platforms, switching to new ones when they 'think' it's a good idea, and last but not least even selling phones that they admit are technically obsolete?
..and I thought Apple were arrogant! True my old iPhone 3g is no longer updated after iOS 4.2, but it's also over three years old. Android phones now have an ecosystem where people are in a state of near frenzy waiting for the latest updates to be released for their phones.
Yet against all this the only Windows phones out there are already a dead end for updates (bar minor tweaks). No doubt Windows 8 phones will arrive with great fanfare and a major selling point encouraging people to get one will be what runs on them and not on Windows 7.5 (maybe 7.99 at the time) phones. If they were going to make sure that everything that runs on a Windows 8 phone is backwards compatible with 7.5, it would make them a little pointless as upgrades or new devices wouldn't it? Such assurances are worthless anyway, they did the same with the Xbox, offered support on the Xbox 360 for it's games, and one day decided that after improving the software emulator a few times, that they were not going to bother with it any more. A good number of Xbox titles I have were wasted as a result.
So secret Plan B? I'm just not interested.
It's a simple, two-part plan
1: Buy RIM
2: Pin remaining hopes on Blackberry 10
Re: It's a simple, two-part plan
1. Collect RIM.
2. [???]
3. Losses!
S40 can be plan B
Currently Nokia has discarded all work on Qt, but support clearly and publicly two types of development: Windows Phone AND Java on S40. I think Oracle and Nokia are working together for improving Java on S40 (cf. not really advertised change of major version number in Java Runtime for S40, even if changes for developers seems currently small). The enemy of my enemy is my friend (and we can tell that Nokia and Oracle clearly share Google as enemy).
Nokia Asha hardware is clearly fastly improving (311 has capacitive touch screen, WiFi, network and/or WiFi positioning, etc for less than 92€ without VAT). It has all the features used by many smartphones users for a quarter of price of many smartphones (Its bigger feature lacking is probably integrated GPS positioning).
Oracle Java and JavaFX software is clearly improving technologically and need devices to be deployed. Developers on S40 already use Java (MIDP, etc.) and a more friendly JavaSE-like API will be very good path for evolving. JavaFX 2.2 (to be released probably this month) add support of touch screen and support of screen size even in QVGA size (see commits in OpenJFX project at OpenJDK). Do you know many devices in 320x240 pixels currently, except small and low-priced phones?
Re: S40 can be plan B
Yeah right,
I can get an Ascend G300 for £100 that blows that POS Asha out of the water.
Re: S40 can be plan B
Mostly yes except some points.
Nokia is sometimes better than Android, when you don't want 3G subscription then you don't have always data. But Android make progress to support deconnected mode (I dislike always connected mode).
Nokia is slow for updates, but has approximately two years of support for its devices. Android support is frequently worse.
This Android has more features, but clearly less autonomy: it is always the same choice between features and autonomy (RAM need energy even when not used, bigger display screen need more energy).
NB: My personal choice for features/autonomy would probably be between Asha and Ascend, and near Ascend. But my choice of support would be more Nokia than Huawei. Happily, I have a smartphone since 18 months, and i will not buy another before many months, then I will wait and see in marvelous world of phones (knowing that when I will need to buy a next smartphone for replacing current, it will probably be at less than 100€).
NB: With Swype keyboard, Wi-Fi, GPS with maps usable offline (even OpenStreetMap), EPUB reader and some others applications, I am happy (phone capability is probably not strictly necessary).
Re: S40 can be plan B
ICS is coming to the Ascend and you can root it putting what ever you want on.
The way Nokia is going you'll be lucky to have them around to give you 12 months support let alone 2 years.
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