Re: This all ignores the elephant in the room
"Nice post, although I do take issue with the use of the word "piracy" but that's just semantics."
Thank you. I also dislike the use of the term "piracy", though mainly because it makes copyright infringement sounds a lot more glamourous and romantic than it is. But if the Pirate Bay want to call themselves that, then they can. It's the term that everyone uses and unlike metric megabytes, etc. there's not a solid reason to argue against it... But anyway, on to the debate! :)
"I see Avengers 2012 on that list - can you please tell me how much that affected the box-office take? Because if I remember, it just broke lots of records."
I cannot tell you precisely how much it was impacted. Probably no-one can give a truly accurate figure. All it is reasonable to conclude is that it has been impacted to some degree. The guy I went to see it with commented that "I'm actually going to see this one at the Cinema" meaning the film was so good that he actually wanted the full experience rather than just downloading and watching on the computer. So maybe you should ask how less successful films are impacted, rather than just the biggest, most special-effects laden films. Unless you think only the biggest Studios and budgets should suffer less? If not, ask about the impact on other films. I remember trying to round up some people for a flim last year and most couldn't because they said they would just download it. If you're saying you wont believe that cinemas are impacted unless someone can give you a figure to the percentage point, you'll never believe it. I could dig out some figures but as the people who are best positioned to know this (the cinemas and the studios) would immediately be dismissed by biased people as biased (ironic), it wouldn't be accepted. Besides cinema takings are only a part of it because cinema gives you something that actually is different to what you download. DVD and Blu-ray sales are a very different matter because in this case, piracy actually can replace the purchase entirely. Some might argue that more people will buy the DVD because more have seen it online. The idea that people who avoided paying for it once will suddenly want to pay for it when they don't have to a second time, is pretty dubious, imo.
"Obviously that does not excuse copyright infringement one little bit, but it does bring into question just how much damage (if any) is actually being done."
I think the worst damage is done to Independents. The bigger you are, the more you can weather adverse conditions. But it varies by media. For example, I know some small press groups publishing role-playing games who basically don't even find it profitable to publish anymore because of piracy.
The question of how much damage is being done goes beyond the profits of the content producers. This goes back to my first post in which I pointed out that most of the pro-piracy arguments all suppose this a priori content producing entity and see the equation as Industry Money on one side and Public Mony on the other. This is plainly and obviously false. The industry money is wholely derived from public money - specifically from those willing to buy the content. Do pro-piracy advocates honestly think that if they push on one side of the industry, those supporting it on the other side don't feel that push? Do they think that the content publishers are this infinitely squeezable sponge that can be reduced to a profitless sliver of nothing? I honestly think they do. Rather than it being slightly firmer stuff that if pushed by piracy on one side, passes on that pressure to the purchasers of the content. And even it it were squashed to nothing and no studio made profit from any film and all the people involved magically worked for free, you'd STILL have the situation in which one large group of people were fronting all the money for these films and novels and songs, whilst another segment of society lived off the first and gave nothing back. That's the reality of the economics. You disliked the word piracy, as did I. Freeloader is the term that I actually prefer. It is, naturally, shunned in favour of pirate by those who support the activity of course. Yet freeloader is more accurate.
"I don't necessarily agree with TPB (although as a distribution service it is genius) but neither to I agree with the draconian legislation being mooted and forced through."
And this is one of my objections to them also. The activities of the Pirate Bay et al. make it very hard for the rest of us to oppose increasing monitoring and restrictions on the Internet. One day, we will urgently need those freedoms again, even in the West. And yet by persistent, wide-spread crime, the freeloaders have justified the taking away of those freedoms. Governments are by nature, evil things. They must, because of what they are, always seek control. But that control doesn't just appear. It is enabled by things such as complaints of content producers asking for such control. And it is a legitimate request for protection they make. So yes, it's not just that some are living off the honesty of others (and to greater or lesser extent passing the costs along through their unwillingness to share that cost), but that I see the erosion of anonymity and privacy accellerated because of them.
"Infringement has almost certainly always existed once it became technologically possible (and no, that does not make it right) but what harm has actually been caused? Companies have survived and grown from gramaphones thru LPs to tapes, videos, CDs etc and not a lot seems to have gone wrong."
Well as I said, I know people who can no longer make money doing something they love because of piracy. There's definite harm. There's also the dubious science of comparing our timeline with itself and saying: "what harm has been done". Well we cannot know that. But there's also the worse logic of thinking because something has been this way before, it will always be this way. Despite human history being full of game changers. Has there ever been a system by which anyone in the world can casually communicate with anyone else before? Has it ever been the case before that content could be reproduced and distributed with costs so small per unit that people aren't even aware of the cost per unit? Has it ever been the case before that decentralized, automated organizational systems for the requesting and delivery of content without a central actor was possible? No, none of these things. And each one is huge. And you bring forth the argument that 'it's always been that way, it always will'. The Internet is a huge blessing for small content producers. But piracy is not an intrinsic part of that blessing. It's the worm in the tequilla. (Some people will swallow that worm. Rational people have more sense.)
"I often wonder what history has to say about all this - what happened when the printing press landed and all the scribes' jobs were in danger; did they demand legislation/special treatment to protect their business? It's the closest equivalent I can think of."
Yes, entrenched producers always resisted change. The medieval guilds held back development for a long time. But your analogy is flawed. The content producers are HAPPY to lay off the scribes (plastic discs as a distribution method, post and packing, guestimating demand), just as they were happy when the "scribes" were cassette tapes being replaced with CDs. The flaw in your analogy is that it is not the scribes people are not wanting to pay for (e.g. the medium), but the content. People still want the content that the producers sell. They have just found a way to not pay for it.