Re: Not so fast...
"With prior knowledge of the fact that the earth had been warming for 100+ years then the probability of it cooling is significantly less than 50%"
The Earth's temperature had topped off since the 50s and was even falling during the 70s. There was no reason to think there would be warming after the 1980s except for the influence of greenhouse gases.
"this warming ceased to be statistically significant around 14 years ago"
But check the details of that. The 2-sigma trend calculated here for Hansen's temperature record over the last 14 years is 0.095C/decade +- 0.161C
So the 2-sigma range is saying global temperature has been from -0.066C/decade cooling to 0.256C/decade warming over the past 14 years. So yes that means warming isn't statistically significant, but that's because of the size of the error. It isn't, as some people claim, because warming has stopped. It could after-all have been 0.256C/decade.
That large error range of 0.161C is because 14 years is too short. Less data = more uncertainty.