Feeds

back to article Nokia on 'brink of failure', warns analyst

Nokia's comeback will fail unless Microsoft pulls its finger out, according to one analyst. Ian Fogg of IHS isn't isn't optimistic, however, and recommends the Finns develop a Plan 'B' - in case Windows Phone fails to crack the Android-Apple duopoly. Fogg commends Nokia for a strong comeback product range in the shape of its …

COMMENTS

This topic is closed for new posts.

Page:

Nokia never wanted to break into that market?

I remember reading some months back now an article stating "nokia/windows wanted to be 3rd choice, as 1st and 2nd were [more or less] already taken". Could this be 'hype' to drive down share price?

0
0
Silver badge
Black Helicopters

Plan B

If anyone in Nokia has any sense, there will be a skunkworks team hidden somewhere, working on getting Android running on their current/forthcoming models. Just in case.

7
2

It is there

Android is a virtual machine and collection of frameworks on top of a stable Linux kernel (which also serves to ndk)

Maemo and Meego is pure Linux, should be trivial to run Android on them.

3
0
Silver badge

Re: Plan B

...and if Microsoft are behaving as normal, there's a skunkworks team hard at work right now on reverting the Nokia map support and there are contract terms that let them just push the update that does it if Nokia jump ship. Microsoft didn't insist on the ability to push updates without carrier permission just for the benefit of users.

Anyway, didn't Nokia get into trouble by having too many competing smartphone 'not skunkworks' projects?

0
0
Silver badge

Re: Plan B

Probably a multi-pronged attack. I'm pretty sure they already have some Linux kernel running on their development prototypes. How else should they test them?

What Nokia would have to do is to "unbundle" their Hardware and their Software, at least internally. So they can bring out the same device with multiple operating systems.

3
0

Re: Plan B

Yes, it's called MeeGo and it works very well on my N9.

0
0

how to fail

If the heavily marketed Lumia 900 doesn't upgrade to WP8 later this year, where does that leave the Nokia marketing initiative? Toast I expect.

With no announcements about WP8 upgrade, we are entitled to assume the worst.

2
0
Silver badge
FAIL

Nokia only have themselves to blame

By 2010, high quality Android devices were coming out and the iPhone was all over the place. Nokia were nowhere to be seen. They fannied around and pissed away inordinate sums of cash on failed acquisitions when they should have been creating great phones. In 2007, Nokia were mega rich and had lots of engineers to create a modern phone OS. It has all turned to dust.

6
1
Bronze badge

When even MS drones whinge about Windows Phone you know its on a hiding to nothing. You can get a more credible 'smartphone' buying a second hand Touch Pro/Diamond and putting the hosts UI on it, oh look its free. All the Windows Phone tilegasms, less of the monumental bugs. Or you could have Point UI, thats free too, and the steampunk theme is great.

I said months ago that bad bugs could be a problem... Oh look, they are.

I said months ago that all Symbian needed was a UI makeover... Oh look, its getting hugs and people are wondering why its being killed. Why? They gave it a UI makeover.

Can someone tell me where to go to get a cushy job spouting the bleeding obvious please?

I connect up my E7 to a bluetooth kb, a mouse through USB, tv through HDMI or analogue/SCART & 99% of the things I can do on my laptop I can do just as well on my SYMBIAN phone, with the 680mhz processor, and the nHD, and the confusing-to-americans OS... Not to mention a full sound system through HDMI too if I want to listen to music...

And lookee ma, I still manage a days battery life!

Mr Elop, here is my advice. Take Lumia phone hardware, put Belle on them, walk away from Windows Phone. Nokia might just make it.

Go and look at AAS april fools phone - the E7-10 - E7 + N8 camera, FM transmitter & a sodding REMOVABLE battery/microSD! Build it and they will come, 60+ comments all wanting one.

Plus with Belle, Mr Elop, you wont be making a $200 loss on every one you sell. Whats not to like about profit?

You do know what profit is right...?

Too soon...?

20
2
Bronze badge
Windows

Gotta agree.

Nokia Symbian Belle is bloody brilliant. (On my N8, it's superb). If only that had come out at the time, iPhone and Android would be hanging on the ropes, calling for the towel to be thrown in. But, as others have said (and as an ex-Nokia employee myself) the beaurocracy was fatal. Ollila was very smart, but I don't get why he didn't see it coming, 5 years ago. Most of us did. Now, thanks to Beresford-Wylie, they've another millstone to drag them down to the Deepwater Challenge.

Nokia Siemens Lossmaking Networks Incorporated.

Once the timed (next year, I think) weight-holding wires to this dead elephant corrode in the seawater near the burning platform and the weights fall, freeing the ship from the abyss and allowing it to rise again, can we expect some progress.

In short, unless and until NSN breaks apart, or is sold to Huawei, expect stagnation.

4
1

So the common bitch about ecosystems goes away when you use Symbian, that now has 5 third party developers and no point?

The processor speed and general efficiency of hardware is something WP7 does very well, hence having previous generation processors. Since when was being efficient bad?

0
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: Gotta agree.

You must be joking. Have you seen the Nokia discussion forum? Hundreds of complaints about Belle and people looking to downgrade to Anna, which itself was a dog. Nokia have lost control of the mobile phone software release process completely.

0
0

Microsoft used to dictating the UI and dev APIs along with marketing incentives

On the desktop they have decades of pushing their agenda and most every case was about making sure developers were locked into the Windows economy at the API layers. The UI locks(licensing restrictions starting with Windows 95) initially prevented 3rd party desktop innovations and later it looked like it was just a way to tie patents to the most used desktop UI platform. All this worked for them because they had 100% control of the market with Windows desktop licensing at the OEM level.

They are trying this same approach with the phone platform because it is all they know how to do. They crushed Palm with OEM marketing deals tied to Windows PocketPC, migrated that to the phone and then sat on that when Palm and its Treo phone platform failed to get a real OS under the PalmOS UI. They were dealing with problems Windows Vista presented when the iPhone and Android busted out and all they did was refresh to Windows Phone 6.5 and use marketing money to try and block OEMs from a big Android opening. But, WP6.5 was a yawn and Android with the Verizon Droid marketing push knocked Windows Phone almost off the map and started the assault on the AT&T/iPhone juggernaut. They are no longer in the position to dictate anything in the phone segment and the phone is not tied to the desktop. Nokia will learn this too late to remain as anything more than another phone vendor until they drop exclusivity with the Windows Phone platform.

5
0

Utter bollocks.

Some analyst said, "Nokia's problem is that Microsoft appears to have stood still. A year-and-a-half after Windows Phone 7's debut, it has changed little. In effect, the gap in features between Windows Phone and Android or the iPhone has widened and not shrunk as Nokia needed it to."

So that must be true then. And of course, sensible tech journalists just swallow that sort of statement whole, and don't even think about actually looking at the list of key features that are available in iOS and Android but not WP7 or comparing said list to the same list 18 months ago... I mean, it's obvious that WP7 still doesn't things like copy & paste, or multi-tasking, or NFC. You know, the really important stuff that iOS and Android both have...

"smartphone developers will begin to drift away" ... Of course that statement is totally backed up by the facts. Adding 3,000 new apps to the WP7 marketplace in the last 2 weeks (http://wp7applist.com/en-US/stats/) certainly sounds like evidence that the developers are drifting away in droves... Frankly, the fact that the number of registered developers for WP7 has more than doubled in the last 6 months is irrelevant, and is totally the sort of thing that both analysts and journalists should pay no heed to.

13
18
Silver badge
FAIL

Re: Utter bollocks.

> number of registered developers for WP7 has more than doubled in the last 6 months

Isn't it a lot easier to double the number of developers when you have a small number to start with? Nice to see such passion for a company that lost its mojo long ago and now has become the king of me too underwhelming clones. Are you a reseller or is M$ responsible for your paycheck in some other way?

7
3
Anonymous Coward

Re: Utter bollocks.

Fair play to the author. In the last 18 months Android has been redesigned into ICS and the iPhone given Siri. In the same time frame WP7 has gotten some basic functionality it should have had from day one

Its the "shinny shinny" like ICS and Siri that get the punters to part with their money along with the key free goodies - Facetime on IOS, Google Navigation on Android.

The sad fact is WP7 hasn't developed anything near fast enough in the minds of your average consumer and though the number of developers is indeed increasing there are more apps & games for iOS and Android and by a massive margin.

4
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: Utter bollocks.

"Frankly, the fact that the number of registered developers for WP7 has more than doubled in the last 6 months is irrelevant, and is totally the sort of thing that both analysts and journalists should pay no heed to."

And all four of them are doing a sterling job

9
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: Utter bollocks.

> Frankly, the fact that the number of registered developers for WP7 has more than doubled in the last 6 months is irrelevant, and is totally the sort of thing that both analysts and journalists should pay no heed to.

Please grow up and don't try to equate the quantity of commodity with the quality of skill. The fact that the number of call centre workers has increased doesn't mean that industry is booming.

3
2

Re: Utter bollocks.

You're completely right. But sadly El Reg is filled with Microsoft haters today, so any pro MS article or comments get the downvotes like mad. There is a strange desire amongst many on here to see Windows Phone fail at all cost, so deride it and Nokia at every turn. In all likelihood it's born out of worry at the fear people might actually like a Microsoft product and start using it.

This bull of measuring their success based on months is stupid. Everyone know Microsoft plays the long game. Was the original Xbox succeeding 18 months in - I don't think so. The combined effect of Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 will be massive, all of which is 6 months away! It's hardly a BlackBerry upgrade style time frame. It doesn't matter where you are today, it's where you are going!

And for everyone who keeps harping on about how Nokia should have moved forward with MeeGo or Symbian - how do you still not understand it is all about the ecosystem and not the OS?!? You can create the greatest OS in the world, but if you can't back that up with all the services people desire it will fail. Whether you like it or not, there are only 4 companies in the World that have the resources and services to maintain and compete with a smartphone platform - Apple, Google, Microsoft and Amazon.

3
7
Devil

Re: Utter bollocks.

" I mean, it's obvious that WP7 still doesn't things like copy & paste, or multi-tasking"

I know WP7 never did and prob never will multi-task (it just has a crappy task switcher), but didn't it get copy and paste in the nodo update, anyways I agree with your point that WP7 hasn't changed much and is still missing LOADS of apps and features to be really usable.

After nodo the next update should be dodo :D

3
3
Bronze badge

Re: Utter bollocks.

You conveniently forgot to mention....

Symbian S60 3rd had them 2 years before iPhone. As well as TV/projector out and 'retina' screen (416x352) in 2006 on the E70 & others.

Must be nice to be first...

Oh wait...

3
0
Silver badge

Re: Utter bollocks.

"""The combined effect of Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 will be massive, all of which is 6 months away!"""

It is unlikely that current WP7.x models will have the resources to run WP8, and in any case single core, 800x480, no SD, makes this very much a last year's model rather than something you would sign up for two year for, even if it wasn't going to be obsoleted by WP8.

2
1
Devil

Re: Utter bollocks.

"This bull of measuring their success based on months is stupid. Everyone know Microsoft plays the long game. Was the original Xbox succeeding 18 months in - I don't think so"

Yes but how many people hold an xbox to their ear ?????

I would be embarrassed to be seen in public with a Windows Phone :/

3
6
Silver badge

@garcyc2011

Actually you're wrong, though I can see where you're coming from because at one time I said the exact same thing ;-)

The multitask bit isn't to be found in the task switcher; but in the settings section. To be precise the: "background tasks" option in the apps section.

But to make it more obvious: My Omnia collects mail for 4 accounts every hour. I keep an application which live tile shows the actual temperature, this also gets automatically updated. Another app. keeps track of the stock market; during the times the market is open (local time) it updates every xx minutes (customizable).

And so forth... Do you really believe all of that were possible without multitasking? ;-)

2
3
Anonymous Coward

Re: Utter bollocks.

"But sadly El Reg is filled with Microsoft haters today, so any pro MS article or comments get the downvotes like mad"

Now that's just not true.

The couple of avidly pro-WP7 posts in this thread got massive and highly unusual up votes before then being down-voted. Looked suspiciously like the up votes were orchestrated while the down were just a reaction to it as they came after the up votes, not simultaneously. The up-voted posts were neither funny, informative nor well written, just very pro MS/WP7.

The posters of the pro-WP7 messages are also overlooking one important fact - WP7 just is not selling in anything like the quantities MS or Nokia need it to.

Say what you like about iOS and Android - and both are pretty far from perfect - they seem to be what Joe Public want, rather than BB or WP7.

I fear all the "wait for W8" guff is misplaced too. W7 sold because Vista was pretty poor - slow, bloated, resource hungry. Not sure 8 will be such a massive leap forward from 7 in terms of day-to-day usability for the man in the street. I jumped from Vista to W7 as soon as I could. I feel no compunction to upgrade to W8, the Metro interface notwithstanding.

In five years time I expect world + dog to still be using W7 (and by pre-loaded in the factory default W8) on their laptops and iOS/Android on everything else.

3
0
FAIL

Re: @garcyc2011

I'm sorry but you are totally wrong

"My Omnia collects mail for 4 accounts every hour"......err thats is not multitasking.

Background Agents and scheduled tasks are NOT Multitasking, plus App developers can only use a small set of API's with these two methods.

"Another app. keeps track of the stock market; during the times the market is open (local time) it updates every xx minutes (customizable)."

Again you seem confused to what multi-tasking really is.

Tell me can you open 5 games at the same time , and will they all carry on regardless if they are in focus or not ??? the answer is of course no.

That is why skype beta for wp7 doesn't work UNLESS it is in focus, it won't multitask in the background polling for incoming calls.

WP7 technically does not multitask, and that's the facts i'm afraid.

6
1
FAIL

Re: @garcyc2011

No, that techincally is multitasking. Multitasking is running multiple threads/applications/tasks at the same time. It might not be multi-window, but this is a phone!

Also, Spotify and a few other apps demonstrate background audio streaming, you can be playing music whilst playing a game, and I think that matches even your broken definition of multitasking.

Windows CE as an operating system is also a fully multitasking OS, you might want to read what multitasking actually means before complaining about the lack of it (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_multitasking)

2
0
Silver badge
FAIL

Re: Utter bollocks.

Windows has had phone os candidates for a decade. How long a time frame does it need, until the technology becomes obsolete?

0
0
Silver badge
Stop

Re: Utter bollocks.

> It is unlikely that current WP7.x models will have the resources to run WP8

Really? Not according to Microsoft reps (can't find link right now) in France and not, interestingly, according to MSNerd who has been right about everything else regarding WP7.

MSNerd's comments

He does make it clear that not every feature will come to every phone. For example, no NFC chip in your phone, no pay-by-bonk. No front facing camera, no video calls.

But otherwise, the update will be there.

You've tried to spread this line of FUD before,m I recall. It made no sense then and less now. Essentially, your argument appears to be that because WP8 supports dual (or more) cores, it can't support a single core.

That's not how software development works, friend. Not unless you're a shitty developer. If it were, you couldn't put ICS on a HTC HD2, which you most definitely can.

Stop spreading this one, please. It makes no sense.

1
2
Coffee/keyboard

Developer Direction

To answer a couple of the questions:

When WinPho8 rolls out it will support existing applications. it will also support WinRT, which is a new development platform being rolled our for Windows 8. So existing Silverlight apps will work on WP8.

As for developer support, the marketplace is now at 80K apps. It's small compared to the 600K of Apple apps but it's growing pretty quickly. At this time last year there were about 10-15K apps.

I do agree with the need to get new functionality out. One major release a year just isn't cutting it with Android and Apple still progressing. Apollo will add a whole bunch of new stuff (multiple screen-sizes, sd cards, multi-core support, etc) but they need to be churning this stuff out faster if they want to stay in the game.

3
0
Anonymous Coward

Still time

Its still not too late to adopt Android, is it? WIth their quality hardware, they will come trumps.

Only if !

Sigh.....

0
0

Competition eh?

Funny that, seems Microsoft isn't used to developing Windows in a truly competitive environment.

Shame it's not also happening in the desktop environment.

4
0
Anonymous Coward

Plan B?

I thought they were on to at least F already.

1
0
Silver badge
FAIL

Re: Plan B?

Plan B is for Plan A to work. They're all-in.

http://nexus404.com/Blog/2011/06/11/stehpen-elop-plan-windows-phone/

1
0

Trust Nokia as developer if you have too much time

If you have trusted Nokia as a developer you would be knowing Java, python, perl, c, c++, qt, flash and their widget system.

These were the technologies they told developers to learn if they will code for Nokia. Oh I almost forgot they talked about a mini posix, implemented and... Dumped.

2
0
Terminator

Plan Symbian3

You can do more with it, and a device that runs it.. Let's kill it...

Nobbers.

2
0

Meltemi

We'll have to see what this produces. Some of the Symbian guys went over to it. Not sure if that's good or bad. If it's good there's a danger managers will rush to be associated with the project and eventually smother it.

0
0
Stop

Why not revive the N9?

And its MeeGo OS. It is a great phone, with an OS that had just as much potential as Windows Phone.

If it's that important to hate Android that is.

3
0
Silver badge
FAIL

Re: Why not revive the N9?

Meego lol. If it was so 1337 perhaps Intel wouldn't have dropped it in the dead of the night? I like Linux and all but Meego on the netbooks always seem like it was shooting to be the Linux dist for teen girls (fat chance on succeeding though).

1
0
Silver badge

Re: Why not revive the N9?

Meego was supposed to be for embedded systems, not laptops.

So cars, phones, ATMs, that kind of thing.

I gather it's doing OK in car entertainment systems.

0
0
Flame

Nokia are their own destroyers

Sticking with symbian for too long lost loyal customers. The Windows mobile marriage ensures they stay away and are happy they made the right call.

Nokia has always made decent hardware, and this is what will bring customers back. But only offering some Android devices will save the firm. They'd wipe the floor with HTC and their historic foes (samsung, Sony etc).

They have the hardware they just need an OS people want!

0
2
Silver badge
Facepalm

Re: Nokia are their own destroyers

Symbian is still moving 5x as many smartphones for Nokia as Windows Phone is. That's as of today, over a year after Symbian was deprecated, all the developers fired or outsourced, the company committed publicly to let Symbian die. This is clear from the 12M smartphones, 2M Windows phone figures given. 12-2=10M Symbian smartphones still for the quarter, or 5x Windows Phones.

How committed does Nokia have to be? Do they have to put a tire around their neck and set themselves on fire to make you happy? Do they have to leap into a pool of flaming oil? I think they've done that.

And what of Microsoft? Just this week Microsoft Office for Symbian was announced. What in the world is up with that? Is that fulfilling a contractual obligation like "if WP doesn't move units you have to ship Office for Symbian?"

2
1
Silver badge

Re: Nokia are their own destroyers

Fact is they lost belief in Symbian and wasted resources developing a dozen other technologies. Symbian Belle is good and could have happened years earlier. WPho is just another wrong turn in a company that lost it's way. Ironic considering how they give away a decent Sat Nav app with all their smart phones.

6
0
Silver badge

Re: Nokia are their own destroyers

"Fact is they lost belief in Symbian and wasted resources developing a dozen other technologies."

I agree they dithered around and should have stuck with one or two new platforms, but you can't say they never gave Symbian a chance. The man hours spent trying to make it modern could have put a man on Mars.

"Symbian Belle is good and could have happened years earlier."

Why didn't it?

0
0

Guy killed symbian in one speech

One really wonders how many millions of symbian users cut all software purchases along with accessory purchases and decided to jump to Android while hating google? The day it happened is that Elop idiot announced Windows.

0
0
Silver badge

Re: Nokia are their own destroyers

"Why didn't it?"

Because Nokia moved ship loads of developers and management focus around a dozen or so other 'initiatives'.

0
0
Silver badge
Coat

Plan B from Mars

Or "So long, thanks for all the fish".

I don't believe there is a plan B. Nokia has as bright a future as Novell, SCO, Commodore, Kodak and Polariod

0
0
Meh

Dunno

WP is not too bad for regular folks. It just disappoints us spoilt Symbian and MeeGo powerusers. That's to say Jemma's comment is full of truth. The E7-00 simply destroys the competition due to its Communicator DNA that allows its user to do neat stuff that no X-core processor can help to achieve. Not even to speak of the Clearblack AMOLED display that is among if not THE very best you can shove into your pocket today. Which states one thing: Nokia is very able to make great phones, even with superbly innovative interfaces, see N9. Meanwhile, Nokia Beta Labs churns out impressive software that truly puts the "smart" in phones. And then there are the fashionable WP phones, pushed by an incredible marketing force but oh so depending on other peoples' work.

It's all very much "in transition" now which is what makes people so edgy. They like neither change nor challenges and they cry havoc about a platform being announced EOL four (!) years from now. Seriously?

Elop said plan B is for plan A to succeed. I guess we'll see about that. Four years is a long time – and if we have learned one thing lately it's that in Nokialand, changes can come quickly.

2
0
Anonymous Coward

"WP is not too bad for regular folks"

It just disappoints us Symbian and MeeGo and Android and iOS and Palm and WebOS users. There, fixed it for you.

0
0
Facepalm

Re: Dunno

> WP is not too bad for regular folks.

That's why they're all rushing to buy it, then.

0
0

Page:

This topic is closed for new posts.