Fragmentation bomb wounds Android in developer war
A new study conducted by IDC and mobile-developer platform and services company Appcelerator has determined that as Google's open source Android operating system becomes more and more fragmented, fewer and fewer developers are putting it on their "must-code-for" list. "We've seen a steady erosion of interest in Android" among …
Re: I didn't expect to see this tripe here
Well if it encourages any devs, I've subsequently bought paid-for versions of a few apps after using and experiencing the free ones. It's about hitting the sweet spot between quality and price.
On the other hand, quality free apps like Titanium Backup come along - I bought the licensed version anyway, not because I saw anything I needed from the licensed version, but because I now consider it a default must-have app I wanted to make sure I had the full arsenal of tools and it seemed very worth it.
I guess what I'm saying is not all freeloaders are permanent freeloaders, you may have to wait a while for the freetard using your free/lite/trial/basic version to convert to your paid/license/pro/full version.
Also I see a lot of kudos and respect for developers who make their app available for all devices but then provide some kind of warning or list of verified devices and offer of support - usually this works well with a free version with option of paying for full. Much more preferable than simply shutting people out completely *cough* Gameloft *cough*.
People buy iOS apps - people want Android apps for free. We would always code for iOS first as it makes much more sense (commercially).
"People buy iOS apps - people want Android apps for free"
Ah, at last - the core "fragmentation" issue. The fact that android devices **themselves** are cheap. Do you think there's a tie-in between the price of the device and the potential app store profits? Is the Play store (still sounds like a sex toy place) actually suffering from the fact that Android has a majority of owners who either don't care about apps (just want to do calls / texts) or people who don't want to pay for them?
I think that's the actual problem. Fragmentation wouldn't be a problem if the developers thought that they'd make the money. After all, a fragmented market doesn't appear to have hindered the PC. Admittedly, when the PC took hold of it's market, there wasn't much coherent competition, and IBM was still reaping the benefits of the phrase "No one got fired for buying IBM".
While Android hasn't had that advantage, and has done an absolutely amazing job of building market share, one thing Google don't seem to have done is push the App store. Apple went from almost denying the need for users to write their own apps to being extremely active in pushing the app store as an advantage of iOS, even to the point of featuring several apps on TV.
Google, for their part, push their own services. As do the individual handset manufacturers. No one seems to be actively pushing the App store.
Google, TBH, only seem interested in future opportunities for advertising. Not in pushing developers interests. That may or may not be true, but the recent delay of payments won't have helped that perception. Apple, for their part, don't actively push a lot of apps, but they *do* actively promote the App store and do seem to actively protect their developers as a group. Something which Google don't.
As I say, fragmentation itself isn't a problem. While developing and testing for different OS versions, cpus, memory sizes, screen sizes and graphic capabilities does incur extra cost, if they have the resources, a lot of developers would be happy to allocate them *if* they knew they were going to get a return on their investment.
The problem is, they often don't know.
Another reason Developers may be a little cautious is that iOS users are (in general) more willing to pay for their software. Getting your free app installed on 100,000 phones is a good thing. However, it won't pay the bills nearly as well as getting your paid app installed on 10,000 phones.
Re: "People buy iOS apps - people want Android apps for free"
You're right. Google consumers are accustomed to getting great services for free: Google web search and GMail were the big ones for me. The advertising was non-invasive, non-animated and non-irritating. I don't recall ever clicking one, not even by accident. You can't say that for many other free web-sites run as a commercial enterprise. All it cost the user was some privacy, but so few users have ever really cared about that (lamentably).
By offering these services, which I and many have happily used for years, Google now dominates internet search and takes huge sums of advertising revenue that come from that position. And as far as I'm concerned, it has earned it fair and square.
Unfortunately, as an app developer it is very unlikely that you will ever establish such a commanding position in your target market. You either have to have a great product (that someone doesn't quickly rip-off) or leverage some other advantage you have in some other market (such as media content). And for me, this is where the free advertising based model falls down.
Opportunists
Looking at that graph the Android dip starts at exactly the same time that Windows Phone 7 started gaining. My guess is that these developers losing interest in Android are perhaps early opportunists looking to exploit an initially empty Android app store with clones of successful apps on iOS.
Now that the Android app store has matured and has plenty of decent apps, they're off to the fresh pastures of Windows Phone 7 where clones and simple apps once again have a chance of selling.
Re: Opportunists
nothing wrong with being the first fish in the pond, Gives you a better chance to become the Big fish,
Now now Mikel, this is an iPad launch window, so it is only fair they launch attacks on Android as well as inflate the rating for the new fondleslab, after all this site is the origin of the 10% Apple tax in reviews where no matter how good anything else is it will rank 10% lower than the Apple equivalent in its class of product.
How many of those Android developers they asked had not been paid their royalties by Google?
Here we go...
It's disappointing that the response from Android fans is: "this is a paid survey!", without any acknowledgement of the core point. There *is* fragmentation in Android - not all Android phones have the same class of CPU, the same size of screen or the same OS release. This is a consequence of its large market share across a broad class of devices. (of these factors, the OS release is the least significant)
This diversity (if you don't like the f-word) has allowed Android to gain a huge market very quickly, but it also brings problems. Unlike iOS or WP7, you cannot just design for one size of screen and one set of minimum specifications; you need to address a set of devices, from cheap stripped-down phones to multicore HD-displayed "superphones". Multiple targets make development more difficult, and they increase the length (and cost) of QA cycle. For something that's most likely only going to be a piece of marketing fluff, that's a lot of investment. (Appcelerator and kits like it tend to be used by marketers rather than utility/games devs)
On a statistical note, though - how is the overlap between "Android Tablets" and "Ice Cream Sandwich Tablets" (the food of the future, no?) accounted for? Also, more glaringly, "Nokia Lumia" (a brand of Windows Phone handset) is listed separately to "Windows Phone 7" as a platform. Um...
Re: Here we go...
6 thumbs up for this tosh shows the level of ignorance and hatred of Android here. It might be a paid survey, but the bigger complaint is that the conclusion is wrong.
"Fragmentation" in terms of CPU is about as relevant as fragmentation in terms of the cases people put on their iphones. You don't HAVE to support every android device! If you want to write an app which would need quad-core then you are able to distribute it to those devices and restrict it from others. You can design for one screen size if you want, but you're not forced to, and the tools available make it easy to support multiple sizes.
Can anyone add an OS name to this sentence which will result in a true statement about fragmentation making app development a pain in the ass? Android certainly doesn't fit this sentence.
"There *is* fragmentation in <OS> - not all <OS machines> have the same class of CPU, the same size of screen or the same OS release."
As a rule of thumb in flame wars like this one, if someone uses the word "Fragment" then they know what they're talking about. If someone uses the word "Fragmented" then they don't.
Re: Here we go...
"You can design for one screen size if you want, but you're not forced to, and the tools available make it easy to support multiple sizes."
It's really not that easy. The use of different screen ratios (not resolutions) is the biggest issue for app designers. You may not realise how many applications are designed using nothing more than Phototoshop, but it's very common for the design to be approved purely on the basis of a screenshot-flow. Often, for marketing apps, it's the marketing agency's creative team that designs and lays out the application; not the developer.
The designers often don't know that there's more than one screen-size on Android, and so they will often just go with 800x480. This is a 16:10 aspect ratio. However, many budget Android phones use a 320x240 display, which is a 4:3 ratio and to add to your pain, there are both landscape and portrait versions of this screen size (HTC Chacha = 480x320; Galaxy Y = 320x480). You can't fit the same information into this format of screen as you can on the taller ones. Now, to add to the fun manufacturers are announcing "720p" displays on high-end phones -- 720p is 1280x720, which is 16:9; appreciably narrower than 16:10.
That is what I mean by fragmentation.
Even with good toolkits and APIs to solve the superficial issues (like scaling between different resolutions), only the most trivial UIs will not need to be altered to suit different screen proportions. And excuses like "but those aren't really Android phones" will not wash when your client finds out that a huge chunk of their customers can't use the app they've paid for...
Re: Here we go...
> many applications are designed using nothing more than Phototoshop
You say photOHto, I say photAHto. Let's call the whole thing off!
Re: Here we go...
If "the designers often don't know that there's more than one screen-size on Android" then get some proper designers.
To support different screen sizes use fragments. Yes, sizes. It's not just about ratios. On a large screen you might want to display a menu and content next to each other. On a small screen you can display one at a time. If the Size-Ratio combination doesn't allow a menu and content to sit side by side then just show one at a time.
http://www.developer.com/ws/create-flexible-android-uis-with-fragments.html
Check out the images at the bottom of page 2 to get an idea of what's available.
Re: Here we go...
I agree that it's difficult to design for all screen sizes. Any company that has a design time draw up a design for one size and then assumes it should work on all flavors did not do their homework. How you go off and NOT know that the target phone (android) has different sizes to be concerned with.. I would not want to buy the app from that company.
If they are targeting the 800x480 screen size, which is the majority of phones on the market these days, then they should either also design a subset for smaller screen size, possibly as a separate app with meta info that allows the market to only show the small screen size app to phones with small screens, or at least draw up the UI for different screen sizes and let the developers build the app to accommodate it. The app can detect the screen size and adjust accordingly.. it's a little more code, but not difficult.
Re: Here we go...
this resolution problem is Googles problem for now proving good UI guidlines until ICS. Now there stuck with millions of devices manufactures wont upgrade.
Re: Here we go...
Yeah, I've seen some UIs designed like that, and they generally work about as well as the rest of the app. If you're writing a form or something similar, use scrolling. If it's a game or something graphical, you pick a distance unit to work with and scale to fit. As for aspect, go look at how film directors deal with distributing a film in different aspects. I'm not an Android developer and I'm not sure of the graphics API, but if it's anything like OpenGL then changing aspects is one call to glViewPort. Not that hard. Someone here already mentioned web pages - that is how your app should work for static forms!
If the UI is a rigidly-designed exercise in corner cutting, I have to wonder what is under the hood?
And now a word from our sponsors...
"The fact that Windows Phone is increasingly a strong third in interest level, and the fact that we're getting some compelling Windows Phone devices out there,.."
Really? The facts/numbers say otherwise.
Re: And now a word from our sponsors...
No, they don't say "otherwise" at all.
Windows Phone is here to stay - get used to it or "otherwise"..
Re: And now a word from our sponsors...
Indeed. WP 7 hasn't gained market share yet. However, it does seem to be getting good reviews, and in the past, when a product or product line has had a slow start, Microsoft have shown that they can be extremely patient while waiting for it to take off. Not to mention the deep pockets to keep financing it and advertising it.
Look at the xbox. While I had one and loved it, the first Xbox was always a distant competitor to the PS2, but MS stuck in the market, and eventually came up with a console that has equaled or beaten both the Wii and PS3 in sales.
Re: And now a word from our sponsors...
I was working on the assumption that developers are showing an increasing interest in Windows Phone because Microsoft's development tools and languages are very nice. So they're interested in developing for Windows Phone in the sense that they're likely to play around with it because they expect it to be a pleasant experience and because learning additional platforms and languages never hurts.
They're probably also optimistic that a sufficiently large market will appear for it to be worth releasing products. We're probably only talking about something minor like a 10% share for the sort of apps that are not in themselves directly profitable (Facebook, DropBox, other service front ends, anything promotional or sponsored) to be worthwhile to port, and that wouldn't exactly disturb the Android freight train.
So, no, I don't think developer interest need always be a trailing indicator of market share. Indeed it's almost the only way I can make sense of the survey.
Statistics
"the study surveyed 2,173 of the 280,000 developers using Appcelerator's mobile development platform ..... To dig deeper a follow-up survey of 484 of the original respondents was conducted"
I'm no statistician, but can you really gain any useful results by surveying less than 1% of the devs, then going back for more information and only surveying 0.002% ?? Seems a bit of a stretch to me...
Re: Statistics
Actually you can, that's what statistics are all about.
Ask 10% more and the figures could be better or worse.
The proof will materialise in 5 to 10 years and we will see if shit sandwich .10 still has apps
Re: Statistics
Not really.
If you want to provide "believable" statistic, your sampling must be adequate to represent the population you are targeting , which is not the case in this in survey.
Showing up what 0.01% of all the developers' favorite dev platform is, is very negligible and means only what this tiny tiny subset favored most. It is far from the real picture.
Re: Statistics
Then you understand well why this isn't not a good representation of what the whole group of devs think. If 10% more surveyed people can mean good or bad, this can make the difference in reporting the truth or not.
Re: Statistics
Haha..I thought this very same thing! However, 280,000 devs is about 5% of the total android developer community. There are millions of android developers (or wannabe's anyway) trying to break in to the market. Makes me wonder if this is some ploy by an apple employee to make android look bad..but then my long post about why this fragmentation is happening would counter this sentence. ;)
hah hah hah
Look at all the android fanbois sticking their fingers in their ears, closing their eyes and hoping the 'problem' will go away.
But, but, but android is Linux so it must be good and people must love it!!!!
The reality is that android is a buggy, fragmented, insecure abomination of an OS with a terrible UI. The only reason it was ever succesful was because it cheap and the reason it was cheap is because it was basically a copy of iOS. And copying other peoples ideas costs less money than innovating.
I cannot wait until android dies. Should not be long now....
Re: hah hah hah
Although in agreement I have downvoted you for being childish and triumphalist in your tone.
Re: hah hah hah
If it is basically a copy of iOS and it has a "terrible UI" I take it that means you think iOS has a terrible UI?
Re: hah hah hah
"I cannot wait until android dies."
I didn't spot this at first because of your massive fail over the UI/iOS comparison, but seriously, if you actually "cannot wait" until a mobile phone/tablet operating system dies do you not think that you should get out of the house, go take a walk in the sun, listen to the sound of children playing in a park, smell the early spring flowers and get a little perspective?
Or get some therapy.
Re: hah hah hah
Well said. I too agree with Mr Hah Hah Hah but still think he's a prat.
As for Android's fragmentation; we code for iOS and Android here, and the main problem isn't that Android's UI or screen size is fragmented, but that some things just don't work properly on certain Android releases, or even different handsets using the same release. A bit like the fragmented mess that is HTML development (shudders...)
Re: hah hah hah
gah i know im feeding a troll but I had to laugh when the latest IOS update landed on my G/f iphone 4 and it had the drop down notifcation bar thats been on my Android phone for over a year....
copying indeed
Re: hah hah hah
you, sir, are a funny, funny man.
now make sure you've taken your pills next time.
Re: hah hah hah
Basically a copy of iOS? One's based on FreeBSD and apps are written in objective C, the other is a form of Linux with apps written in Java. Next you'll tell us Windows Phone is basically a copy of iOS.
Re: hah hah hah
Why anyone would agree with this moron is beyond me. So what you're saying is you want apple to be the only thing out there.. no competition? Watch how fast apple goes from their minor yearly updates now to something every 3+ years when they have nothing pushing them to be better.
copy? ROFL.. as many already said, apple copied too, on many occasions. Copying is a form of flattery is it not? Besides, there are only so many ways you can make a touch screen do something. So if they had triangular icons that required a hard touch then a swipe to execute, would that make you happy? Oh wait.. apple apparently invented swipe too.. so that's copying as well. I got it.. all android devices should have cameras that know exactly what your looking at..then you blink.. and it runs. MS phones will need to do something else..they already have Kinect technology.. so perhaps they need to invent the brain receiver..you think it, and their phones will execute the app. Now that is fair right? That way nobody copied poor apple.. the company that after years of massive profits is finally giving a little bit back to the stock holders and continues to waste billions on trying to stop competition rather than compete fairly. Yah..that's the company I want to give my money to.
Further Fragmentation
When Samsung forks it or puts an emulator in Baidu
Nokia Lumia = Windows Phone 7
I trust this survey as much as I'd trust one which asks if people want to develop for a HP laptop with Windows 7 or Windows 7.
Hmm
Maybe app developers are starting to cool to Android now there is a mature market and no easy wins, but I reckon as long as the userbase is there the big name apps will always be available on Android - supposed fragmentation or not.
Re: Hmm
on certain models only and on the last two releases of that OS ...
thats my bet sadly :(
Tried Android
Well I tried android dev through the Eclipse plugin and gave up as it was crap , very slow and cumbersome. I shall stick to Blackberry and Nokia java development where i can write the same app and can be used on both types of phones. Blackberries OS and Symbian3 are far better OS's both work well and apps can be easilty written for both. Although I shall probably have to learn c# so that i can write apps for windows phone seeing as they don't support java !.
Who's paying for this survey?
Appcelerator make Titanium which is a Javascript based cross platform mobile SDK that is meant to replace native solutions such as Android, iOS, Windows mobile, Blackberry.
They're hardly going to put their name behind a survey that says "Isn't Android brilliant?" are they?
I wrote the hah hah hah post
Seriously guys, it is just a web forum!!! Do not take it so seriously!!! We write posts for the LOLs. Whilst I am gratified that most of you agree that Android is a heap of crap, the reality is that it was an OK'ish mobile OS. It has been superseded by Apple and MS over the course of the last couple of years, but it was OK when they first launched it. It does still have a use though, which is to provide companies like Amazon with a bare bones mobile OS upon which they can actually build a reasonable, commercial, user experience, free from bugs, viruses and google ‘designed’ UIs. It will flourish in thiss pace. However, the Amazon ‘version’ of Android will be completely different from the Sony ‘version’ of Android which will be different from the Barnes & Noble ‘version’ of Android. And the two funniest things? 1) Google will be making no add revenue from spying on the people using their miracle OS and 2) Microsoft will be making $5 per a unit or whatever it is they charge. It is a funny old world eh?
Re: I wrote the hah hah hah post
" I wrote the hah hah hah post"
I used to have an incontinent puppy. It knew it wasn't supposed to shit in the house but it did anyway.
I'd get home to find it next to a stinking pile of its own doings looking at it sadly, clearly owning up to me that it was responsible.
And I used to think "It's pretty bloody obvious who did it, you idiot; rather than confessing how about you just stop shitting everywhere in the first place?"
It wouldn't have understood, of course.
Re: I wrote the hah hah hah post
Android is crap... then Linux is crap too, right?
I am somebody's total lack of surprise
Because handset and browser manufacturers are putting all their effort into HTML5 applications, everyone wants cross platform solutions.
Because there's just been a new ipad and the new iphone will be this year, whereas ice cream sandwich has started to melt.
Because people don't want to sit in the Google camp now the chocolate is being made from sour milk.
Because the "business world" is going to dump Blackberry for Microsoft like they always do.
Because we're all fickle and want NEW toys.
Cross-platform = web?
In one of his better articles a while back Matt Asay suggested that the future of app development would be HTML 5 & JS. The stats seem to be backing that up. Not good news for cross-platform systems like Appcelerator but it makes more sense for developers.
79% vs 89%
Let's see... 79% of app developers are happy with Android vs 89% for iOS.
Not a huge difference it seems to me, so that makes the headline pure link bait.
For shame...
Quality Apps?
The problem is not how many apps are being developed but how good are the apps being developed. This is more problematic as it requires some assessment of quality as well as usefulness and profitability. How many of these developers are writing on genuinely new stuff and how many are just repackaging? How many are breaking new ground and how many are developing a front end for an existing retailer/manufacture/advertiser/coupon pusher/etc.
The 'early adopters' on any platform will, by definition, pay more for more apps of dubious quality: those who adopt expensive stuff doubly so. As the platform matures the early adopters move on and the easy money moves with them. Of course developers follow the money. Of course there are more developers of esoteric apps looking at newer platforms; it's a less crowded selling space.
As far as I can see this is not developers leaving sinking ships but critical mass having been achieved.
I wrote the hah hah hah post
Liar! IT was me! I did it because I believe strongly that fragmentation will kill android! You humourless fandroids will also fragment! Limbs will fall off.. Sorry, better ad a spelling mistake so it looks more genuine!
