Feeds

back to article Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 claimed lives of HIV/AIDS cure scientists

Several passengers aboard downed Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 were headed to the 20th International AIDS Conference taking place in Melbourne, Australia when the plane crashed, according to reports. On Friday, the International AIDS Society confirmed in a statement [PDF] that "a number of colleagues and friends" were aboard …

Silver badge
Headmaster

I'd still tack "alledgedly" before any attribution to a missile strike

Considering everything, the cause of the crash is probably a surface-to-air missile in the hands of trigger-happy nitwits, but that has not yet been proven.

RIP passengers and crew of flight MH17, and special condolences to the Dutch people...

14
1
Bronze badge
Boffin

Re: I'd still tack "alledgedly" before any attribution to a missile strike

Haven't you seen the film Conspiracy Theory?

What actually happens in genuine accidents is that teleconnections cause the human brain to malfunction and thus all traffic routes become more likely to suffer fools. It is only circumstantial evidence but...

Aiming a misile deliberately and hitting a plane at 5 miles still needs concentration, so the likelihood of an earthquake coincidental to un~natural "accidental" behaviour is smaller. (Still there though.)

I know I could have written this more clearly but I am wasting my time responding anyway, so yah boo sucks.

(For anyone interested, all you have to do is look up the various forms of traffic accidents with your favourite search engine and compare the results with results for magnitude 7 or greater earthquakes in the same time frame.)

2
26
Anonymous Coward

Re: I'd still tack "alledgedly" before any attribution to a missile strike

huh???

4
1
Silver badge

Re: I'd still tack "alledgedly" before any attribution to a missile strike

Inability to explain yourself =/= Intelligence.

2
0
Bronze badge

Re:"Haven't you seen the film Conspiracy Theory?`", etc...

If I'd had a bottle of plonk on a very warm sticky day, (well in UK terms), that's the sort of thing I'd say. Actually I have had a bottle over the day, and still haven't said anything that silly here - well as far as I know. It's been a hot sticky day, and I've had a bottle of plonk. (cheap South American if you are wondering. Sort of dark red with industrial chemical undertones and probably originally premium tanker shipped to Germany for bottling and general distribution throughout the EU and other foreign climes).

3
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: Haven't you seen the film Conspiracy Theory?`", etc...

Conspiracy? so if i read the article correctly (actually i just skimmed it), what we're saying here is that Big Pharma paid off the Russian military to take out the plan, thereby averting the risk that these boffins might find a perfect cure and so take away all the big fat profit the drug companies get from selling their pills?

0
0

Significantly fewer now reported

As of this morning (Aus time), it seems that significantly fewer specialists were on that specific flight. Number mentioned now is around 7, including a former chariman of the HIV/AIDS organisation.

Source: The Guardian, Australian edition

1
0

So sad

I posted this to theregister 11 days ago in response to the story http://forums.theregister.co.uk/forum/1/2014/07/07/usa_to_insist_on_preflight_mobe_power_probe ,

"Pointless

I predict that the next aircraft to be destroyed will be taken out by an attack from the ground rather than by an on-board bomb.

Actually it's already happened, but not to an aircraft carrying Yanks. (BBC News-Military plane shot down in Luhansk ). Let hope the terrorists don't read the beeb's news site, or for that matter wikipedia (Man portable air-defence systems) or even el-reg (Alabama quadchopper).

Luckily smuggling a man portable air defence system into Europe is too difficult for the terrorists to try, so we are probably safe. Wait, isn't Ukraine already in Europe? Feck!

"

I now feel hollow.

3
3
Silver badge
Holmes

Re: So sad

You don't need to feel hollow, just off-base (at least for now) because MANPADs are definitely NOT involved here. They wouldn't be able to reach the plane. You need the east-side equivalent of a Patriot missile system (a very complex weapon system), coincidentally fielded (with chasing radar active on the 17th) in large numbers by Ukraine I hear (via rt.com, natch). Though this is being denied by both Ukraine and the "Obama Administration", which has somehow become the very protectivce chaperone for the Ukrainians and their unsavory right-wing antics, with the affirmation that Ukraine's anti-aircraft capabilities are actually non-existent. Ho-hum.

To counter some extreme levels of "Putin Bad" retardation the MSM is currently duly exhibiting (they know who butters they bread after all), the best résumé can be found here and here.

Note that Hillary already confirmed that it was Putin who dunnit. She certainly is a powerful medium. We should have deployed her on USS Vincennes...

11
28

Re: So sad

I feel slightly drawn into a political trolling - but since I dislike such positions being taken before the facts are known, I'll use the citation of the USS Vincennes incident as a good example because

(a) it shows that even relatively well trained people with very sophisticated equipment and back-up can make mistakes with tragic consequences.

(b) it was recognised relatively quickly, though not apologised for. (Of course there still things about this open to debate, and, the politics muddy the waters).

Also I'd consider

(c) when the USSR shot down a Korean passenger jet (KAL007) they denied it and 7 days later only when the intercepting pilot's radio was played back had to recognise responsibility. (Of course there still things about this open to debate, and, the politics muddy the waters).

(d) KAL007 also shows that even relatively well trained people with very sophisticated equipment and back-up can make mistakes with tragic consequences.

(e) there must be lots of US and Russian spy satellites over that part of the world right now with plenty of coverage of the time-line in question available to both sides.

From (a) & (d) I figure that we don't have to consider a great conspiracy regarding deliberate targeting of a civilian aircraft - it is very likely it was shot down by the separatist side simply because they have been routinely hitting aircraft from the government recently, plus the track of the aircraft was from west to east... rather than the other direction which would be more likely to trigger a similar error from someone manning a government anti-aircraft weapons system.

Also from (e) if the missile had come from the Ukraine government side I'm sure that someone on the pro-separatist side would have mentioned of it.

From (b) & (c) I imagine the current Russian government wants to work out who did it, if they can do anything about it and produce a statement with the best possible spin on it, because from (e) it's very probable that everyone with access to the satellite materials can see where a missile (if it was one) came from, and because of the sophistication of the missile system it's very likely the Russians supplied the equipment (& quite possibly the personnel, but since I don't know how easy/hard these things are to operate that's yet another level of speculation).

This to me is a terrible and silly mistake, being rapidly made into a political football which will detract from finding out what really happened and so becoming a conspiracy nut's dream.

15
2
Bronze badge

Re: So sad

Mandatory KAL007 reference: The Russians do have some experience shooting down airliners.

2
2
Silver badge

Re: So sad

Iran Air Flight 655

The US spent $5beeeeeeelion "promoting democracy" in Ukraine but that protection didn't extend to the democratically elected government. Surely some of the money would have been spent teaching them how to use false flag attacks against anyone the US doesn't like?

See also: South America, East Asia, Middle East, Central Asia.

8
4

Mandatory KAL007 reference

Here is a more relevant reference for you: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812 .

2
1
Silver badge

Re: So sad

"From (a) & (d) I figure that we don't have to consider a great conspiracy regarding deliberate targeting of a civilian aircraft - it is very likely it was shot down by the separatist side simply because they have been routinely hitting aircraft from the government recently, "

All at low altitude. The immediate and vociferous blaming of the Russians without any real confirmation tends to indicate that at the very least the Yanks and their Western poodles intend to capitalise on this incident - just look at the UK/US newpapers, all howling that Putin did it.

It takes weeks, months or years to work out what really happened to a crashed aircraft, but funnily enough in this case Obama knew who did it immediately, and so did all the Western press. It could certainly be a mistake by either side of the Ukrainian forces, but it unfortunately has all the hallmarks of a false flag attack intended to implicate the separatists, and the Pavlovian response of the Western press is rather worrisome - both from a press freedom perspective, and from the suggestion that this tragedy is convenient for the US.

10
9
Anonymous Coward

Re: So sad

"It takes weeks, months or years to work out what really happened to a crashed aircraft, but funnily enough in this case Obama knew who did it immediately, and so did all the Western press. It could certainly be a mistake by either side of the Ukrainian forces, but it unfortunately has all the hallmarks of a false flag attack intended to implicate the separatists."

Spot on.

Rather than jumping to conclusions and pointing fingers, why not insist on a proper investigation to learn what has happened?

Towards this end, Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov has asked the following ten questions:

1. Immediately after the tragedy, the Ukrainian authorities, naturally, blamed it on the self-defense forces. What are these accusations based on?

2. Can Kiev explain in detail how it uses Buk missile launchers in the conflict zone? And why were these systems deployed there in the first place, seeing as the self-defense forces don’t have any planes?

3. Why are the Ukrainian authorities not doing anything to set up an international commission? When will such a commission begin its work?

4. Would the Ukrainian Armed Forces be willing to let international investigators see the inventory of their air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles, including those used in SAM launchers?

5. Will the international commission have access to tracking data from reliable sources regarding the movements of Ukrainian warplanes on the day of the tragedy?

6. Why did Ukrainian air traffic controllers allow the plane to deviate from the regular route to the north, towards “the anti-terrorist operation zone”?

7. Why was airspace over the warzone not closed for civilian flights, especially since the area was not entirely covered by radar navigation systems?

8. How can official Kiev comment on reports in the social media, allegedly by a Spanish air traffic controller who works in Ukraine, that there were two Ukrainian military planes flying alongside the Boeing 777 over Ukrainian territory?

9. Why did Ukraine’s Security Service start working with the recordings of communications between Ukrainian air traffic controllers and the Boeing crew and with the data storage systems from Ukrainian radars without waiting for international investigators?

10. What lessons has Ukraine learned from a similar incident in 2001, when a Russian Tu-154 crashed into the Black Sea? Back then, the Ukrainian authorities denied any involvement on the part of Ukraine’s Armed Forces until irrefutable evidence proved official Kiev to be guilty.

http://rt.com/news/173976-mh17-crash-questions-ukraine/

8
11
Silver badge
FAIL

Re: Destroyed All Braincell's Re: So sad

"......coincidentally fielded (with chasing radar active on the 17th) in large numbers by Ukraine....." What a surprise (not) that Destroyed is bleating Pootie's propaganda. The Ukranians have plenty of aircraft, including supersonic fighters, and have complete control of the air, whilst the pro-Russian rebels don't. The Ukranians would only need to use their SAMs in the case of Russia sending in their aircraft, otherwise they have no reason to shoot at an airliner their own ATC was in contact with (from when it entered Ukranian airspace). The rebels, on the other hand, were not in contact with the airliner, and have been popping off such high-altitude SAMs with abandon, especially at what they think are Ukranian military transports. The chances it was anything other than a Russian-supplied (if not also Russian-manned) SAM, fired on the orders of the local rebel commander, is looking very slim, especially seeing as the rebels are stopping the crash investigators from examining the wreckage (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28388136).

10
5
Silver badge
Stop

Re: Leftswinger Re: So sad

"All at low altitude......" And the usual defenders of The Great Soviet 2.0 swing into action without bothering to check the facts, again. The Ukranian Su-25 shot down in the area last week was at 32,000ft because the Ukranians previously lost an An-26 transport, in the same area, at 20,000ft (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-military-transport-plane-shot-down-002407723.html), which is well outside the range of ordinary MANPADS. The SAMs that the rebels have captured from Ukranina bases were all Igla MANPADS, not high-altitude SAMs as would be needed to hit either the An-26, the Su-25, and the Malaysian flight.

"....It takes weeks, months or years to work out what really happened to a crashed aircraft...." Not so, especially in the case of packed passenger jets, because the wounds to people seated in different parts of the aircraft will give a very good indicator of where an explosion occurred, and shrapnel from a missile will pepper the bodies closest to the explosion. Which probably explains the tales of the bodies being whisked off to Russia, so the Russians can remove all the incriminating shrapnel.

"....the Pavlovian response of the Western press is rather worrisome - both from a press freedom perspective, and from the suggestion that this tragedy is convenient for the US." So you really want to baaaah-lieve The Man shot down the airliner just to smear Pootie and the press (which have all been happy to publish Snowjob's tales) have all suddenly turned into obedient little yes-men? Seriously, are you smoking something, or really that stupidly blinkered?

12
9
Silver badge

Re: So sad

Mandatory KAL007 reference

The more appropriate reference is Siberia airlines flight 1812 which shows that Ukrainian military has the experience in shooting them too. So nothing new here.

5
2
Silver badge

@SpamBot Re: So sad

"I don't know how easy/hard these things are to operate"

Generally, if you don't know the system like Buk you won't even be able to power it up (and will likely damage it if you try).

However, if you are not concerned with technical maintenance and service, the operation itself is not so difficult to learn. Especially if the training course would dispense with the niceties like the principles of operation, material base etc and only concentrate on turning the system on/off, acquiring and tracking a target, taking the shot. Can be done in a few days if you (and your crewmates) are bright enough.

With that, the standing cautionary tale in SAM forces is that unless care is taken, the systems tend to hit the easiest target. By far the easiest target for a SAM like Buk is a big all-metal ship like B777 flying straight and level in clear conditions (no countermeasures) right in the middle of the engagement envelop.

The operators do not see the altitude of the target, only the direction, angle above the horizon and the slant range. Yes they can work out the altitude from that but the thought would not cross their mind when they are in combat mode. They may or may not have had an optical tracking camera fitted to their vehicle.

12
0

Re: So sad

Oh God now we are getting invaded by Anonymous PutinBots too.

Anything said by the RT channel needs to be looked at as if it has been supplied by FOX News, if not even worse as it is totally controlled by Moscow. Good write up of RTs MH17 coverage here http://www.interpretermag.com/rt-covers-the-shooting-down-of-mh17/

The Ukrainians have already said that they do not have any BUKs in the combat zone, why would they the rebels aren't flying planes. However multiple video footage has been uploaded of a BUK launcher in the rebel areas, located using things like Streetview to match up the locations.

Finally on the subject of the Spanish air controller, Spain has confirmed that he doesn't exist, and all the controllers at the Ukraine ATC are Ukrainian. 'Carlos' (I think that's the name) is a fiction that turned up a couple of times to post fake stories via Twitter.

9
2

Re: So sad

Ah yes, the nutball Occam's Razor: the most convoluted explanation is usually correct.

3
0

Re: So sad

Why are the rebels limiting access to the crash site and carting away evidence?

3
1
Silver badge

@Gordon861 Re: So sad

"Anything said by the RT channel needs to be looked at as if it has been supplied by FOX News, if not even worse"

I regret to admit that the BBC's standards of reporting this are not any better. It is disgusting to see how a tragedy is being quite cynically used to whip out a new cold-war type propaganda brain-shower for the feeble-minded.

"Terrorists don't give the investigators access!" - but the investigators are sitting in Kiev, listening to scary stories being told by the government. The OSCE observers are there on the site but they are not allowed to touch it - because they are supposed to be observers.

"Terrorists are destroying evidence and stealing bodies!" - but what do you expect them to do? Let the bodies rot and be eaten by wildlife? Would you like to look at a few days-old corpse of a child with guts spilled out, infested with maggots and covered with flies? They are doing the only reasonable thing that can be done while the high politics is playing out its course - preserve the bodies as best they could.

"Putin must provide access to the crash site!" - oh, is that really what they want? Because they may just get it - when Putin moves the troops across the border and secures the site.

2
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: So sad

Ass.

Nobody is claiming the Ukranians don't have sophisticated anti-aircraft capabilities. Just that since the rebels don't seem to have any real "aircraft capabilities" it seems pretty pointless risking them in theatre. Whereas the rebels do have anti-aircraft capabilities as shown by their continual crowing about shooting down Ukranian planes and helicopters.

So putting 2 and 2 together and trying not to get the answer "Tin Foil Hat" what do you think is the most likely answer?

2
0
Bronze badge

Re: So sad

Let us assume this pile of crap from rt was true, lets also assume there is a Spanish air traffic controller working in the area and really saw that on his systems, would he not be on our French tellies? In France, we do not give Jack shit about the US.

The rest, well, is propaganda.

One very simple, indisputable fact says the rebels did the job ... they are in control of the area and not cooperating! Now, they have attempted to remove evidence, have not handed over the black boxes (we know they have them) and are preventing the international commission of carrying out their work. Need any more ?

Needless to say, the US have authenticated the discussion between two top rebel brass discussing the downing of the aircraft, the US claim they have satellite imagery of the shooting, the rebels have BUK missiles deployed in the area, we know that for sure.

Of course, you cannot really trust US satellite images ... cf: Hans looking for arms of mass destruction in Irak.

0
0
Silver badge

Re: So sad

"they are in control of the area and not cooperating!"

People here seem to think that Donetsk is somewhere in Switzerland or something. Not in an Eastern European country torn by a civil war and right in the middle of a conflict zone.

"Now, they have attempted to remove evidence, have not handed over the black boxes (we know they have them) and are preventing the international commission of carrying out their work."

Anyone with a head on their shoulders would have been able to predict that the rebels will not cooperate with the government they are fighting against. Why would you give anything to people who have already proclaimed you guilty?

As far as I can see - there is no international commission yet. The Kiev government claimed control over the investigation and started with declaring their conclusions before even seeing the evidence. All the claims about removing the evidence have been originating from them. They have finally been told to cede control to the Dutch, who are already arrived at the scene and are already inspecting the "stolen" bodies.

I am not saying the rebels didn't shoot the plane down, they probably did, but, FFS, bull-shit is bull-shit, no matter who is it coming from.

3
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: @Gordon861 So sad

"Anything said by the RT channel needs to be looked at as if it has been supplied by FOX News"

"I regret to admit that the BBC's standards of reporting this are not any better"

Then you have extremely poor judgement.

For example these are the current BBC Ukraine headlines on the website:

What do we know about what happened to flight MH17?

Live coverage: MH17 investigators in Ukraine Live

Background: The people who perished

Ukraine in crisis: Background to conflict in east Ukraine

Any answers? What could the flight recorders reveal when they are examined by accident investigators?

Passenger planes shot down

A look at previous incidents where passenger planes have been shot down

Who decides which conflict zones planes fly over?

EU moment of decision: Gavin Hewitt on key sanctions talks on Russia

Seems pretty objective to me. The things you were attributing to them, and you were because you put them in quotes. They ain't there.

Tell you what, go and find an article in RT in the last 6 months that's been critical of Putin.

1
0
Silver badge

Re: @Gordon861 So sad

"The things you were attributing to them, and you were because you put them in quotes. They ain't there."

I'm sorry, they are. They've been repeating them on TV all day long yesterday and before.

"go and find an article in RT in the last 6 months that's been critical of Putin."

I don't generally recommend watching RT - may be bad for your health. But if there are any articles on BBC that are critical of the Western leader's position towards the Ukrainian crisis or providing objective analysis of the MH17 developments - they are few and far between, unfortunately.

2
1

Re: So sad

Welp, if Putin and/or the rebels are truly innocent, they should have immediately cordoned off the area and said "nobody's getting here until the experts who will exonerate us because we didn't do this." It's not like Putin doesn't have the means and the motivation, unless - brace yourselves - he knows an unhindered investigation will in fact confirm precisely what he's been denying.

Picking credit cards off corpses like medieval bandits and carting away bodies like Slavic Eichmanns is, how you say, incriminatory by definition. Every Sgt. Schultz excuse offered thus far by the totally-not-Russian-allied rebels - our leader's Twitter account is actually a fake, the phone calls are fake, these missile launchers fell off a truck and Obama sent them anyway, any photographs of Russian officers among the "rebel irregulars" are men who've had plastic surgery, we don't know who's messing with the bodies, we don't know who's driving the trains, we saw nothing, we heard nothing, we are not even here today! - is like listening to a garden variety pathological liar, if not a genuinely brain-damaged confabulator.

2
0
Silver badge

Re: So sad

"if Putin and/or the rebels are truly innocent, they should have immediately cordoned off the area and said "nobody's getting here until the experts who will exonerate us because we didn't do this.""

That's exactly what they have done, haven't they?

"Picking credit cards off corpses like medieval bandits and carting away bodies like Slavic Eichmanns is, how you say, incriminatory by definition."

You are just embarrassing yourself. BBC: MH17 bodies out of Ukraine rebel area

2
1

No one ever heard of risk analysis?

When I was named disaster recovery coordinator for a company over 30 years ago, the first thing I did was create and publish a policy for how many employees could be on the same transport vehicle, and which officers could NOT travel together. Some stories state that the 100 best and brightest AIDs researchers were on this one plane. That scares the heck out of me to think of what other conference have this risk associated with them.

6
0

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

The medical conferences I go to have up to 20,000 delegates. 7 as reported (or even 100 as you say) is a small proportion. With so many delegates, a large number do have to share flights. It is just a logistical realty.

10
0
Bronze badge
Alien

No one ever heard

Tzu Lu said: The ruler of Wei is anticipating your assistance in the administration of his state. What will be your top priority?

Confucius said: There must be a correction of terminology.

Tzu Lu said: Are you serious? Why is this so important?

Confucius said: A superior man is cautious about jumping to conclusions about that which he does not know. If terminology is not corrected, then what is said cannot be followed. If what is said cannot be followed, then work cannot be accomplished. If work cannot be accomplished, then ritual and music cannot be developed. If ritual and music cannot be developed, then criminal punishments will not be appropriate. If criminal punishments are not appropriate, the people cannot make a move.

Therefore, the superior man needs to have his terminology applicable to real language and his speech must accord with his actions. The speech of the superior man cannot be indefinite.

http://praxeology.net/confucius.htm

3
4
Anonymous Coward

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

A few extra details (my wife grudgingly declined an invite despite 10 years of her work in her previous job being shown there because it was too far):

This was not just AIDS researchers, a lot of them were ex or current Medicines Sans Frontiers personnel (the biggest contributors to this organization are Holland and France). MSF has pissed off way too many powerful people over the years by exposing some of the dirty consequences of sponsoring local conflicts in the third world and refusing to tow various party lines. There would be champagne corks opening in _BOTH_ Langley _AND_ the building on Садовое Кольцо if MSF suddenly stops to be. I would not be surprised if some were opened this time too.

From there on the fact that the plane was ordered by traffic control to go as low as possible over an area that had 3 military aircraft shot down over the last couple of weeks does not surprise me any more.

In any case, while it is most likely that the rebels shot it down, the probability of it being taken out by the loyalists is non-zero. They did it before ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812 ) because they could not be bothered to read the instructions on the missile launcher which say "you must arm the self-destruct timer". They lied for weeks, tried to cover it up and _NOONE_ responsible was court-marshalled.

3
5
Anonymous Coward

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

More like a financial reality.

Despite MH370 and despite deliberately flying an aircraft over war zone for cost saving purposes Malaysian is still listed as the company preferred choice on our travel system.

If, for example, I have to fly from Europe to somewhere in that corner of the world I have to book with them or get a VP approval for refusing to comply with the company travel policy. So will nearly everyone who works for a company large enough to have the typical outsourced travel agency arrangement.

In any case, the people who _OBVIOUSLY_ did not do any risk analysis were Malaysian airlines. The same area saw Su-25s and other military aircraft being taken out over the last two weeks. No civilian aircraft can survive a threat that can take out a fighter jet (even an out-of-date Frogfoot). The fact that the rebels have captured advanced weaponry from sacked Ukrainian military bases was known. The fact that the Ukrainians left the bases to sack with all the equipment intact and operational was also known. The fact that the weapons included AAA systems was known and even bragged about by the rebels. FFS, the only reason the rebels are not sporting nuclear armament is that we have (thankfully) paid Ukraine to disarm itself from it and provided them with the technical equipment to do so.

So Malaysian airlines should stop pretending somehow that "everyone flew there", "Eurocontrol said it is safe" and "Ukraine kept the airspace open".

1. Everyone - not true, Qantas had enough brain to fly around (despite it traversing 3 extra countries as a result and paying airspace fees to each of them).

2. Eurocontrol does what the participating states tell it to. It closed Crimea airspace for purely political reasons despite the area moving from one government control to another government control without any bands of highway bandits getting their mits on AAA equipment.

3. Of course Ukraine did not close the airspace. This is income.

It is really sad when we have 200+ people lost to "financial realities", but this unfortunately is a classic case. Financial realities + not doing risk analysis as it would have not fit the "financial realities".

9
4
Bronze badge

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

I don't think these were people from the same organization. When I went to a conference in New Zealand I had some problems at the airport and looked for a guy with a poster tube to find someone who probably knew the answers since sure enough he was going to the same place.

This was a bigger conference so logically there would be a lot more people on every plane going that way in the couple of days running up to it.

0
0
Bronze badge
Holmes

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

Wrote :- "Some stories state that the 100 best and brightest AIDs researchers were on this one plane. That scares the heck out of me to think of [the risk]"

And AIDs experts should be risk conscious, no? Similar on the flight that vanished over the Indian Ocean; I understand it took most of China's graphologists with it.

0
0
Bronze badge
Holmes

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

Wrote :- "deliberately flying an aircraft over war zone for cost saving purposes"

The first question which occurred to me was : "WTF are civil airlines flying over a war zone?"

Watching BBC news on this, I waited for ages for someone to ask to ask this question, and when it was a pundit replied "Because it had been declared safe to do so" - and that seemed to be regarded as a satisfactory answer!

Begged the question : "Why TF had some idiot declared it safe to fly over a war zone?" There seemed to be an assumption that no-one fighting had the capability of attacking a high-flying aircraft, but how could the aviation authorities possibly know what weaponry the combatants had, or might have next week? Or that there was no-one on either side who might not be trigger happy even if they recognised it was a civilian airliner. <irony>Of course, no soldier has ever taken a pot shot at a civilian just for the hell of it.</irony>

7
0

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

I've sat in a few planes recently traversing over areas of conflict in the Middle East... the best answer I can come up with is that the risk/reward is low enough -

ie few people have access to something that can hit a cruising aircraft, (shoulder launch stuff can't get above about 25K ft) and those that have ones that do are generally responsible.

The cost of going around is in time and money for both the airline and the passengers.

Generally I'm OK with that, this won't stop me flying.

After all, these events are rare - the best I can find is that this has happened 7 times since 1943 (happy to be corrected).

Aviation is still mile per mile very safe, and, one is statistically more likely to die going to and from the airport.

That, of course, doesn't detract from the personal tragedy of each and every family of someone involved.

It also doesn't mean something shouldn't be done to understand the cause of this incident and try and solve it.

Also, it doesn't absolve any soldier taking a pot shot at a civilian, but I suspect this was a mistake rather than deliberate.

Finally, if shoulder launched missiles capable of hitting civilian aircraft in cruise become more prevalent then the risk analysis will have to be re-worked.

6
1
Silver badge
FAIL

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

Well Mr AC, Malaysian were far from the only airline to fly this route. I flew over Eastern Ukraine last weekend with 'Jet Airways' when flying from Mumbai to London. We were at FL 35 wheras the Malaysian 777 was at FL 32.

Lufthansa and several other Airlines also flew this route until recently.

It is not all about flying the shorest route to save money. Sometimes the shortest route is affected by bad weather, ATC strikes and severe turbulence. If the Weather people say that there is a chance of wind shear the Pilots will take a different route.

6
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

"After all, these events are rare - the best I can find is that this has happened 7 times since 1943 (happy to be corrected)."

Rare, yes, but what nags me in this tragedy is that with thousands of flights every day, how is it that the exact same carrier — Malaysia Airlines — has now lost two planes in less than six months, both under mysterious circumstances?

There's an old saying in the Navy: to lose one ship was carelessness, to lose two was enemy action.

There is, after all, this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuala_Lumpur_War_Crimes_Commission#Convictions_invoking_universal_jurisdiction

1
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

"if shoulder launched missiles capable of hitting civilian aircraft in cruise become more prevalent then the risk analysis will have to be re-worked."

Shoulder-launched missiles are not capable of hitting aircraft at 33,000 ft. For that, a much larger and more sophisticated surface to air missile is required. These large SAM are mounted on an armored vehicle.

The Buk missile system (used by the Ukrainian military and a likely candidate in this shoot down) requires four separate vehicles, and a team of 15-17 trained specialists to set up and launch the missiles. Even if they captured all the vehicles and missiles in a Buk unit, this is not something that one of the local Donbas militias could easily man and operate.

The other possibility is an air to air missile, though the militias in East Ukraine don't have jets and that would squarely implicate Kiev. It wouldn't be the first time that Kiev shot down a civilian airplane and then lied about it (see Siberia Airlines Flight 1812).

Finally, a good question to ask is: cui bono?

2
4
Silver badge

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

After all, these events are rare - the best I can find is that this has happened 7 times since 1943 (happy to be corrected).

Depends a bit on what you're counting; en-route incidents at nominal cruising altitude like this one, I get 7 too. Most of the remaining incidents involving civilian airliners had them flying in or out of airports near (or even in) active insurgency zones, where one would be happy not being shot at.

0
0

Re: No one ever heard of risk analysis?

Exactly. Western journalists are self-declared guardians of democracy. Now they pull their punches? Now they don't ask the obvious follow up questions?

Also, regarding the BUK and how it was operated. Rebels usually "capture" these vehicles when the crew switches sides. So then you have the tools and the means to operate it. Obvious possibility, but somehow the self-declared guardians of democracy tiptoed around it.

1
0

The CIA has been theorized to be responsible for the AIDs outbreak?

Maybe those scientists were never going to make it to that conference?

While they were never actually caught with their hand in the cookie jar, we do have this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/20/us-obama-cia-idUSBREA4J02E20140520

So they are capable of anything.

1
12
Silver badge

So nice to hear the USA roundly condemning people who shoot down unarmed civilian airliners.

Would have been even nicer if they'd done the same for Iran Air Flight 655 - or even admitted liability.

6
2
Anonymous Coward

1st thought was false-flag given blatantly fraudent MSM reporting of Ukraine civil war.

I may be incorrect that this was done under orders of the Ukraine coup state or supporters; even if I am, targeting accidents happen in wars, especially when you get mentally disturbed e.g. by being under siege, including heavy munitions bombardment by the Ukraine coup state.

http://scgnews.com/ and others provide a lot of facts which the MSM doesn't report, spins or gets backwards, very possibly because state propaganda agents are known to be placed in several MSM organisations.

The quite inadequate MSM reporting on the false-flag excuse to massacre of Palestinians (Semites) and the continuous quite staggering theft of their land by the Zionist (Khazar *) fake state of Israel is another recent example of MSM negligence.

3
14
Anonymous Coward

Re."accidental"

Maybe the US needs to "accidentally" take out a few targets in both Ukraine and Russia that look like Buk missile launchers.

3
3
Anonymous Coward

Re: Re."accidental"

Not a bad idea after all - if it is on BOTH sides.

Once upon a time the founder of the first post-WW1 independent "state" on the territory of modern Ukraine used to say:

Beat the Whites until they go Red, beat the Reds until they go White. - attributed to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nestor_Makhno

0
0
Facepalm

Senseless act of violence, WTF?!

Shouldn't we be upset about the senseless act of beancounting that put the aircraft over a war zone?

4
2

Page:

POST COMMENT House rules

Not a member of The Register? Create a new account here.

  • Enter your comment

  • Add an icon

Anonymous cowards cannot choose their icon