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back to article No, pesky lawyers, particle colliders WON'T destroy the Earth

A couple of lawyers are calling for the US government not to fund any further research at one of its premier heavy-ion colliders, the RHIC, because of a discredited 15-year-old “doomsday scenario” debate. Alert readers will recall that back in 2008, botanist Walter L Wagner had a court case against the Large Hadron Collider …

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Aren't these couple of loons...

bringing the whole Lawyer profession into disrepute?

...

Oh... Nevermind.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

Loons?

Until the day we see the world begin to disintegrate around us while the scientific community shrugs it's shoulders and says "Oops, I think we got it wrong! Err any ideas on this guys?"

Not only do we have to contend with meteor strikes, super volcanos, war, perceived global warming, disease, man made virus and the sun going out creating a mass extinction, we have scientists messing with stuff like this and theories that are pretty much guess work.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

"Perceived global warming"...?

Right... ignore the very real and tangible threat (I mean, have you watched the news, lately?) scientists warn us about and concentrate on the totally imaginary threat some sci-fi author needed as a plot device which the scientists assure us is impossible. Got it.

Until we have colliders that can exceed, or at least approach, the energy levels nature likes to throw around, we should be safe: everything we do, has already been done repeatedly before in the grand lab that is the universe. This, of course, is not very likely to happen because that "perceived global warming" will probably get us first...

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

"Right... ignore the very real and tangible threat (I mean, have you watched the news, lately?) "

I'm intrigued. Are you insinuating that the flooding and weather we are experiencing right now is attributable to anthropogenic global warming?

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

No the author pointed out that climate change is an innate part of the nature of this world upon which we live (otherwise the last ice age would still be with us). The extent to which anthropogenic climate change is a factor in the current rate of climate change is something that still needs to be determined. However there is overwhelming evidence to show that human activity does have some impact on climate (otherwise acid rain would be an imaginary weather condition).

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

"Are you insinuating that the flooding and weather we are experiencing right now is attributable to anthropogenic global warming?"

Are you assuring us that they're not...?

I mean, not being a working scientist with a reputation to worry about, it seems obvious to me: all kinds of records are being broken, which's what one would expect with global climate change. More energy in the atmosphere means a more energetic atmosphere. Higher average temperatures mean more evaporation which in turn, since what goes up must come down, means higher precipitation.

Some samples:

"Parts of England have had their wettest January since records began more than 100 years ago, figures show".

"Israel experienced its driest January since records have been kept, with Jerusalem seeing almost no rainfall at all for the entire month". That's this past January. And that's about 70 years of records, I believe.

"The 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe since at least 1540".

"France's [2003] summer heatwave killed a total of 14,800 people".

"Nine of the 10 hottest years on record have been in the 21st century".

"[Typhoon Haiyan] is the deadliest Philippine typhoon on record. Haiyan is also the strongest storm recorded at landfall, and unofficially the strongest typhoon ever recorded in terms of wind speed".

"Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere."

...and so on. As I said: just watch the news.

Sure, it could all be a coincidence, but that seems unlikely to me, at this point.

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@ Bluenose - Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

"...the author pointed out that climate change is an innate part of the nature of this world upon which we live"

Pretty sure he didn't make that statement, or allude to it. His subsequent reply confirms that. I never stated if it was true or not, more that his comment seemed to state that the current events are proof of climate change. Climate change whether natural or anthropogenic - I challenge you to find any scientist that will state these current events in the UK are a direct result.

Your comment is decently made. His alludes to cliche recycling.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

@LarsG. Wow, 6:1 downvotes! Do people with a sense of humour not get up early or will this trend be maintained? Let's hope the RHIC doesn't destroy the earth before we find out

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

"Sure, it could all be a coincidence, but that seems unlikely to me, at this point."

Sooooo by your argument that these events correlate climate change, the Maunder minimum which led to the mini ice age in 1645 to 1715 (the Thames regularly froze over) then if someone had stated climate change in that period, those weather events would have 'confirmed' climate change*.

My point isn't a debate on climate change, my point is using events that fall outside the norm as 'proof' of an event that papers on climate change state regularly *not to use independent weather events as evidence of climate change*

It makes proper scientific review in the public more difficult with half-cocked cliches and ideas being bandied about.

(edit: Actually it did confirm climate change, just that the climate swung back the other way after...I should have stated irreversible)

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

Actually, I should really have given credit for your second paragraph because that was spot on! :)

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

My records do not go back any time at all. The best scientific records go back a few years. Less good records go back a bit further than that but are at best patchy. Geographic records go back a good deal further and show that one 'constant' is that weather has always changed, we know that one potent force is the impact of the sun which in case you had not guessed it is also always changing its activity and thus its impact on its planets. Magnetic fields change along with the gravitational effects of other external bodies. In short the weather is a by product of a huge mish-mash of factors only some of which we know and frankly few of which we understand. Controlling the size of camp fire you can have in a back garden might make a few feel very self-righteous, but with India and China ramping up their coal fired power stations the effect of the next camp fire tax will have very little useful effect.

One thing to consider is that within any closed system an increase in one location will always be countered by a reduction somewhere else, otherwise the darned thing will not balance. Siberia has been warmer than usual North American has been colder and snowier than usual and we have been wetter than usual. I do not know the reasons in precise terms for this, I know that the sun has entered an unpredictable change in activity and I do know a tiny amount of thermodynamics, enough to understand that change produces effects that may at first be hard to understand. I also know that the feed back will be that changes will cause unexpected effects for those who do not understand that way that balances are restored.

We should learn to live with change, I am not the way I was even yesterday, I and the weather and the world will be different tomorrow, that's life.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

@LarsG

"we have scientists messing with stuff like this"

People seem to forget that the energy involved in our BIGGEST** particle accelerators is TINY compared to naturally occuring (unless it's aliens shooting at us) high energy particles that hit the earth EVERY DAY!!! They're called cosmic rays; scientist would love to use then for experiments, but you can't steer them in front of the detectors so we make do with our puny machines.

If "high energy" physics experiments were going to destroy the world then it would already have happened as a result of cosmic ray events.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_ray

** Check the bit about cosmic rays being 40,000,000 times more energy than the LHC

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Happy

@LarsG

Nice to see someone else read the tutorial on trolling.

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Re: Perceived global warming

Global warming is happening, the climate is changing, how much of that is man made? I think even the scientists don't know, how will this warming alter the climate? its guesswork really.. BUT it is happening...

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons... @ Anonymous Blowhard

Unfortunately reality and sense have nothing to do with this as this is Religiopseudoscience that we're dealing with here and that has no truck with either common sense or reality.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

"My point isn't a debate on climate change, my point is using events that fall outside the norm as 'proof' of an event that papers on climate change state regularly *not to use independent weather events as evidence of climate change*"

You are technically correct. Of course any single weather event cannot be tied directly to climate change. Weather, after all, is not climate.

But my point is that there's a difference between a paper intended to be published in a peer-reviewed publication and comments on a non-specialized Internet forum. The standard of evidence is different, certainly. Or should be, at any rate.

If you've been playing a die game for a while and certain numbers seem to be coming up more often, at some point you're entitled to wonder if the dice are loaded. *Especially* if virtually every die expert is jumping up and down screaming that they are. Even though it's still perfectly correct to state that if you throw a pair of dice often enough, an unbroken run of a million pairs of sixes is bound to come up. And nothing says that this run will not occur at the beginning of the die throwing experiment, either.

"It makes proper scientific review in the public more difficult with half-cocked cliches and ideas being bandied about".

I sincerely do hope that the future will prove me wrong (and believe me the wronger I am proven on this point the happier I would be), but I believe that a proper scientific review in public is all but impossible. The public simply does not understand science. Else no one would be "debating" evolution. Or anthropogenic global climate change, for that matter.

And don't forget that the actual scientist whose job it is to study climate are virtually unanimous that climate change is real and that we are causing it (the last count was more than 97% agreeing, I believe). They're done studying the evidence at the standard required by science and the verdict is in. It's just Joe and Jane Public that remain "skeptical" because they do not, I presume, understand what the big words mean or something. Sticking with the same big words and the nuance is not going to help explain things to them.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

You might find this article interesting:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/004316502320517407/pdf

There are several potential traps in "Parts of England have had their wettest January since records began more than 100 years ago, figures show" - the author of the quote gets to chose the 'parts of England', the period of time ('one month'), the month itself (January), and they've waited until it's particularly wet before they made this statement.

In reality, there isn't any strong trend in rainfall (or flooding) in the UK over the period for which the records exist, and such trends as may be found can be maximised, minimised or reversed, just by the selection of particular start and end points.

It didn't rain at all here (South West England) one day earlier in the week - that means that it was as dry as the driest day ever! Since records began!!! It's tipping it down now, though. Does this sort of extreme day-to-day variation indicated something sinister about climate change?

I am reminded of Richard Feynman's remarks about a licence plate he'd seen on the way to the lecture.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

Puzzled.

"This is the wettest January since 1767" So this is not new?

"these wet conditions in England are precisely those that have been forecast by climate models."

Remind me, when did the industrial revolution start again? Had it started in 1767, and how much CO2 had been emitted by man then?

Just askin'

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

On that note:

http://cosmoscon.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/co2-vs-population.jpg

- complete coincidence I found this, btw, I was actually looking at things to do with M82 and the supernova and I saw this and it made me laugh.

Please don't get me wrong. There are a few things going on here.

Whether I believe in ACC or NCC or CC at all is immaterial to what is actually happening right now. The question is, should it be ACC, then what do you propose we do about it? If it is NCC, the same question? The Earth and the incredibly complex biomechanical system that exists within it, including extra terrestrial impacts, (the Sun for one), will continue on regardless of what we do, whether we survive it or not. However, the thought that we can hangon to our current existence without change is laughable.

Case in point, if we suffer a power outage for, say, major Sun activity that takes out a large proportion of substations in the UK, what do you think the result would be if we had no consistent power for, say, a few months? How would it affect day to day life, the ability to pay for things, stay in contact, clean water, medical help, even the distribution of information from a central government? Scary isn't the word. Even 20 years ago, it wouldn't have been as bad as it would now because of the digitisation of modern life in the UK.

Now take that same scenario in a place such that has intermittent power even now. They would cope better than we would because they have to deal with it day to day and any social systems in place already deal with that scenario. We no longer do.

If you don't find that scary...I certainly do and just because it hasn't happened yet, (70s power cuts - I am just about old enough to remember those), is not a reason that it won't.

The point I am getting to is the rather silly way that cliches and pseudo scientific phrases that get flung from various lobby rich groups that try and affect the opinion of the population at large result in daft, pointless approaches to the problem of CC rather than a proper grown up debate/discussion. I am not pointing at specific groups but all.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

"these wet conditions in England are precisely those that have been forecast by climate models."

Ah, but climate and weather are not the same thing. Yes, some doomsday climate models predicted it would rain heavilly most of the time. But we've also had some exceptionally dry weather, which doesn't fit in with the predictions of those climate models. We've also had a few very hard winters which also fail to comply with those predictions.

You can't look at a few weeks in isolation and call it "climate" (changed or otherwise) it's just weather. Climate is a pattern of weather over a number of decades. Does the weather over the last few decades follow the predictions of these models? Unfortunately for those climate scientists who have staked their reputations on those predictions it does not.

And don't even get me started on the BBC's reporting of climate change.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

> Are you insinuating that the flooding and weather we are experiencing right now is attributable to anthropogenic global warming?

No single event is attributable to anthropogenic global warming. That's "weather". The long-term climatic trends are partly attributable to anthropogenic global warming. That's "climate".

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2014/02/14/storm-was-mid-atlantic-regions-9th-biggest/

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2014/02/13/snow-totals-piling-up-fast/

Oh noes! An ice age is coming! An ice age is coming!

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

And there you go. Climate change (if it's happening at all) will happen over decades if not centuries. The meeja however have taught us to think in soundbites. So the news meeja in general and several of the posters here think that weather = climate. A month is a hell of a long time for an idiot or a journalist to comprehend. Idiots tend to work from the principal that whatever is happening now will continue to happen. However the weather we're having here is connected to the exceptionally cold weather being experienced elsewhere.

Worldwide (and without ignoring inconvenient data as climate "scientists" like to do) was january warmer than usual? And even if it was does that indicate a trend towards warming? That's too much work for the news meeja to answer.

Have the meeja been shouting about global warming the last few cold winters? Funny that.

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Re: @ Bluenose - Aren't these couple of loons...

I'll take that challenge....

hang on there's a catch, I'm just going to quote some fringe organisation with a total vested interest in pushing the political argument and no actual involvement in day to day climate science at all.

ya got me!

the met office;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/uk-storms-and-floods

to summarise - 'we cant say conclusively (cos that's not how climate works) but you would have to be a fucking idiot not to see the overall picture.'

now will you shut the fuck up??

no i didn't think so

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

if you dont understand the question, you cant really contribute much to the answer.

thanks for the demonstration

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

The Younger Dryas was believed to have taken place over a couple of decades, but is now considered to have happened in a couple of years.

pesky experts

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Re: @ Bluenose - Aren't these couple of loons...

"http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/uk-storms-and-floods

to summarise - 'we cant say conclusively (cos that's not how climate works) but you would have to be a fucking idiot not to see the overall picture.'"

So..the fact that the Metoffice state that the current observations regarding the abnormal activity which is referred to in the report requires more research to be done means that they are certain of its cause?

Of course not. Hence their statement.

To use your phrase "...you would have to be a fucking idiot..." to accept that things are certain, eg, the odds of current patterns being caused categorically by GW are so high that we accept that as certain even when your own quoted source are not stating that.

"now will you shut the fuck up??"

Ok - so we are back to accept this fact just 'because' and don't question anything.

You are showing the attitude that is the problem in general. We can't question anything without being labeled as a 'naysayer', 'denier', 'alarmist' etc.

I haven't stated whether I think that GW exists or doesn't exist. That is immaterial. I have only questions the debatable associations that have been alluded to in this forum*.

*Forum: An Internet forum, or message board, is an [*]online discussion site[*] where people can hold conversations in the form of posted messages

PS - No. You shut up. :)

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons... @ Anonymous Blowhard

several years ago a writer of science fiction proposed that type 1b supernovae are all the result of industrial accidents by unlucky civilizations on planets orbiting white dwarf stars.

[hey, it's written down and therefore must be true]

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

"...perceived global warming, disease, man made virus and the sun going out creating a mass extinction, we have scientists messing with stuff like this and theories that are pretty much guess work."

So much hyperbole, so zero facts.

First, the sun isn't about to go out, it won't go out tomorrow. It won't even go out in a billion years.

Now, around 13 billion years from now, it'll be a lot cooler. Of course, whatever is left of the Earth after warming from the warming of the sun is questionable, as we're still not certain if the Earth will be engulfed by the sun when it hits red giant stage.

Meanwhile, we have zero man made virii around that are pathogens. We're incessantly struck by random particles at higher energies than we'll ever manage to create on this Earth and we remain stubbornly in existence.

Those are incredibly well established facts, documented with millions of pages of evidence.

Whereas all you've provided is disbelief in all things knowledge, all things established fact and all observations since the first scientific observation was made.

Lemme guess, the stars are really holes in the great celestial bowl, right?

And particle physics has so much to do with meteors, any form of volcano, global warming, disease and microbiology, right?

There is a medical term for this. It's called cranial-rectal inversion.

OK, it's not medical, but it's accurate.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

"I'm intrigued. Are you insinuating that the flooding and weather we are experiencing right now is attributable to anthropogenic global warming?"

A simple answer for a simple question:

Maybe, maybe not. A few data points are not a trend. Trends occur over the space of decades to centuries. Not a single season.

But, on the maybe side, a fraction of a degree over a few hundred thousand kilometers is a hell of a lot of energy seeking to find equilibrium.

Is that climate change? In a way, it is past the solstice, so spring is coming. Increasing severity, more storms and greater fluctuations are a hint that a trend may be present.

That is why science observes, continues to observe, presents theories, tests theories and continues to still observe in case the theory is incorrect.

So far, the climate change theory is matching up to the facts quite nicely.

If it's wrong, so be it. But, would you rather ignore the possibility of it being wrong and ending up with London under water and my well inland home new beachfront property?

Of course, if climate change is true and it is warming, there is an upside. Wall Street will be under water as well.

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Re: Aren't these couple of loons...

What do you mean "The public simply does not understand science." I'm a member of the public, and I understand science pretty well :-) . Better than some "scientists", I think.

As I understand it, some individual weather events CAN be tied to global warming, but not immediately. I recall hearing that scientists had established that the London floods (somewhere around the turn of the century) were due to global warming, but it took them about a decade to do it.

I agree though that blaming individual weather events on Global warming is generally not good science, and leads to counter arguments of the type "what about (similar event) way back in (X no. of decades ago)?".

Trends are definitely more consistent with what we know about the effects of global warming. One trend I'd like to know more about is the apparent increase in tornadoes, as this seems to be a very substantial trend, especially in Australia (where I live), with tornado strikes on towns and cities apparently going from virtually unheard of to multiple instances a year, in less than a decade. If this trend is real, and continues, I believe we'll be in big trouble much sooner than expected.

I agree that the evidence points to the current climate change being mostly anthropogenic, however we have to also recognise non-anthropogenic factors, both for scientific thoroughness and so that we have a defense against claims of "deniers". For example, by my estimation we're currently pretty close to the "most rapid warming" part of the cycle that caused the Maunder minimum (assumptions: 1200 to 1400 year cycle - [based on my memory], and sinusoidal pattern).

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...which could, if certain assumptions are correct, start a chain reaction converting everything into “strange matter.”

Sometimes I wonder if this has already happened. Some really strange things have occurred.

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jai
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Some really strange things have occurred

I think a lot them work in my office!

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Re: Some really strange things have occurred.

Don't Panic!

I believe we have established that those were all the work of a certain Dent, Arthur Dent.

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Anonymous Coward

Oh, the International Business Times? One guess why this got published: It, while having the negative of being complete bullshit, has the positive of being opposed to something that the Obama administration is in favor of.

Among a certain segment of the population, that is the only credibility required - after all, what good is understanding the world around us and the potential destruction of the earth if it can't be seen in terms of its potential to BEAT THE ENEMY???

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Anonymous Coward

if it could have happened

Across the vastness of the universe, you can safely assume that anything that could go wrong has already gone wrong somewhere.

Since we seem OK it is safe to assume that this sort of thing is not possible.

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Re: if it could have happened

>>"Across the vastness of the universe, you can safely assume that anything that could go wrong has already gone wrong somewhere."

An assumption that would resolve the Fermii Paradox and explain why in a galaxy of half a trillion stars that has lasted for ten billion years, we appear to be alone. A simple catastrophic event lying in the path of the advancement of Physics with almost no warning signs until a species says: "why don't we bang these particles together really fast?" and their planet goes boom.

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Gav
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Re: if it could have happened

So you've managed to look out across the whole universe and tell that nothing has gone wrong, and this sort have thing has never happened before? From the point of view of sustaining life, there are a great many places in the universe where things have gone very, very "wrong".

Which isn't to say that this lawyer nonsense isn't total bunk, but your logic is flawed.

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Re: if it could have happened

conversely we bang there 2 particles together and all of reality fades, to be replaced by the text

'LEVEL 2'

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Re: if it could have happened

Look you stupid bunch of nerds, don't you realise that only lawyers know anything and always get everything right especially when they are not very good lawyers and become politicians instead. Just think, Clinton was a lawyer, Blair was a lawyer, Gore is a lawyer, Obama is a lawyer, Parliament and Congress are full of lawyers. They never ever get anything wrong and every decision they make is done with the deepest moral reflection.

... Actually I forgot, climate scientists never get anything wrong either.

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No pain, no Gain...

Or, whoops, apocalypse!

Of course, these lawyers, like all of their ambulance chasing brethren, are just scoping out new, novel ways of charging legal fees.

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Anonymous Coward

Jeez... we actually let these people out in public on their own...

Do they manage to dress themselves in the morning without help...?

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Re: Jeez... we actually let these people out in public on their own...

The only thing different about this set of whackos is that instead of targeting farmers or logging companies they are targeting physicists.

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Holmes

Where is Mah Orlo?

The whole AGN-NYET discussion, stranged up a bit, I see.

Just proof that people with no real jobs tend to specialize in the domain which they have no fucking clue about.

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Anonymous Coward

Huh?

...the “doomsday scenario” needs a few preconditions to become an actual threat:

•Strangelets have to be possible (right now, they have only been hypothesised);

•They would have to actually be created in an RHIC experiment; and

•They would have to exhibit the hypothesised property of destroying the world, rather than (say) ceasing to exist soon after observation, as happens with so many fundamental particles created in colliders.

So I want to get a dog but my wife is worried about it biting the kids. Can I respond by saying ah, but for that to become an actual threat it would have to me the following preconditions:

•We would have to buy a dog; and

•The dog would have to bite the kids.

Therefore, it's safe to buy a dog!

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FAIL

Re: Huh?

But we DO know that dogs exist, they are not just hypothetical. We DO know they can be made, it isn't just a guess that if such a thing DOES exist then they may be brought into being by this particular method. And we DO know they have sharp teeth & have been known to bite. This case is closer to saying you want to get some alien life form from the next galaxy as a pet!

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Happy

Re: Huh?

Surely it would have to be a Unicorn and worry about gouging

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Re: Huh?

In this case, the preconditions would be more like:

- Dogs are possible (rather than just being hypothetical creatures)

- You are capable of buying a dog

- Dogs (or, more specifically, the dog you intend to buy) have exhibited the property of biting people

Given that all of these are true, it may indeed not be safe to buy a dog.

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Re: Huh?

You can respond how you want but unless your post makes sense and is relevant I don't know why you'd bother telling us. You are saying that the whole weight of scientific thought and opinion is just that, and can be countered by anyone saying "Ah but just supposing they are wrong?" Well you could pretty much say that about anything couldn't you. You could say that it is possible your wife might just go berserk with an axe before you had even bought the dog. You need to bring reason, structure experiment, observation, statistics and deduction to your analogy. All you have brought here is the same imbecilic "Well if you can't prove it won't happen then there is a chance that it will happen" nonsense purveyed by a billion non scientists who all demand some kind of unwarranted moral equivalence.

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Re: Huh?

What you have to do is explain why, if the doomsday preconditions are correct, it hasn't happened already. Because Nature is bombarding the Earth with cosmic rays millions of times more energetic than anything we can make in our experiments. The Earth is a large target. The Sun is a much bigger one. Both are still here despite having been bombarded for the last century at least. If you accept that the last century is not special in cosmological terms, one can assume the same bombardment over the entire multi-billion-year life of the Sun. Either way, if strangelets could destroy us, it would already have happened.

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