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back to article MEGA ASTEROID could 'BLOW UP EARTH' - Russian space boss

A freshly discovered asteroid, with the classy name 2013 TV135, has a slight chance of smashing into Earth on August 26, 2032 and ruining everyone's day in a very big way. "A 400-metre asteroid is threatening to blow up the Earth,” Russian vice-premier Dmitry Rogozin, who runs Russia's space industry, posted on his Twitter feed …

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Anonymous Coward

"level one threat on the Torino impact hazard scale"

...presumably being equivalent to the effects of the earth being hit by a transonic 1975 Ford Gran Torino?

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Fantastic, no need to save up for a pension, might as well spend it now!

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My kind of Keynesian!

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Happy

I had a 1970 Torino, does that count?

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Holmes

size or weight

The meteor that formed the huge Meteor Crater in Arizona was only about the size of a semi truck. The weight of Ford Torino would be bad (very locally) but the size would be far worse (fairly regional).

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Great!

I'll be 80 years old by then so it'll either be a heck of a way to go out or funny as hell watching all the nutbars panic.

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Re: Great!

I'll only be 70, so I'll be fit enough to still carry the beer, we can watch together!

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Re: Great!

I'll be late 70's ... I'll bring a pickup-load of Corneys of miscellaneous homebrews, the wife will drive in a second pickup full of Zin and Souv Blanc, and maybe my daughter & grandaughter will drive in a third truck with a pile of preserved meat, cheese and homemade bread. Might as well share binging on the good stuff, if we're all actually going to die :-)

Live life like you mean it ... it ain't going to last forever ;-)

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Re: Great!

Hey, we've just witnessed the start of an apocalyptic, vicennial geronto-bromance!

What were the chances of that?

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Re: Great!

Zin and Souv Blanc "good stuff" ? I'll hang on to my 2005 Chateau Figeac - should be about ready to drink then...

</winesnob>

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@Peter Ford (was:Re: Great!)

Whatever. I have about forty dozen cases of Brandywine that are over twenty years old. Yes, that's right, aged beer. It's tasty.

My Zin and Souv Blanc are built to be enjoyed young.

"</winesnob>"

Read: "plonker with no clue about fermented beverages".

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Re: @Peter Ford (was:Great!)

A real wineslob would be debating whether the end of the world was sufficient reason to try a bottle of that port they laid down in the 80's ...

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Re: Great!

"my daughter & grandaughter will drive in a third truck <snip> Might as well share."

Sounds good :)

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Happy

Re: Great!

My 68th birthday - I'll probably be so drunk I don't notice the apocalypse :)

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Re: Great!

Hey Jake,

Post the date, time and location, and I am there. I will also bring a smoker and various pork products.

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We've got a better chance at world destruction than me winning the lottery. Sweet.

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Coat

That's alright. I didn't buy a ticket...

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Joke

"We've got a better chance at world destruction than me winning the lottery. Sweet." There is a simple solution saving as all, just fill in lots of lottery tickets, That will fix the mathematics too.

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Anonymous Coward

> We've got a better chance at world destruction than me winning the lottery. Sweet.

With my luck, I'll win the jackpot the day before it strikes.

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Mushroom

Looks like the nuke boys are looking for new jobs (remember the CIA wanting to go into copyright enforcement at the end of the cold war)? Well, they may have a case in this case: With need for nuclear weapons questioned, builders find a new target – errant asteroids.

Course there are still several thousand warheads ready to give all of humanity a really bad 6 hours day whenever somebody accidentally farts at the wrong frequency in an underground control room, but hey, you don't get to have an aggressive primate brain without having to take on some risks, right?

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Chances of winning the lottery...

> Meanwhile, your chance of winning the UK lottery is 1 in 13,983,816

And I didn't even enter the lottery. Those UK lottery folk are might generous.

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Wrong date?

You sure it's not 19 January 2038 at 03:14:07 GMT? Pity really. Now THERE'S a timestamp worthy of a Mayan-level apocalypse. Oh well, maybe they'll try to take the Northern Line and be delayed a few years.

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During the meanwhile ...

The chances of me actually playing the lottery are roughly one in infinity. Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math(s).

I'll take my chances on the universe throwing rocks in my general direction. Not that I have any choice in the matter. Note that I'm typing about 400 yards from the Rogers Creek Fault, probable home of the Bay Area's Next Big One, and I sleep quite soundly, thank you :-)

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

"Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math(s)."

There are some important exceptions to that assertion; in some cases (e.g. after several consecutive rolled-over jackpots, it's quite possible for the prize multiplied by the win probability to be greater than the price of a ticket.

It does get complicated when accounting for all the other factors (taxes, multiple winners with the same numbers, lesser prizes for matching less numbers, etc.), but there are situations it actually makes sense.

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

"it's quite possible for the prize multiplied by the win probability to be greater than the price of a ticket."

Yes. For someone, somewhere. But look at the odds.

Everybody else ... not so much. Learn how math(s) works.

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

by my maths, if I buy a £2 lottery ticket then I am infinitely more likely to win the lottery than if I didn't...

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Re: a tax on people who can't do math

Lottery winners don't have to do math anymore

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math(s).

Well, sort of: some people just find waiting to see if their numbers have come up entertaining; in which case it might be seen as cheap entertainment. For others, they might have a spare pound a week, and consider the miniscule chance of extreme good fortune worth a shot. But going (eg) short of food, heating, or whatever else to play the lottery definitely is not sensible.

I don't think most of the people who play the lottery do so because because they can't do maths: they do it because they have the ticket money, and they like to believe they might win. That's psychology, not (lack of) maths.

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

No it's jake who needs to learn math(s). The UK national lottery used to be £1 (now £2) a ticket with a 1 in 14,000,000 chance of winning. Rollover jackpots were frequently estimated to be (and actually were) in excess of £14 million, in which case it was perfectly rational to buy a £1 ticket with an expected payout well in excess of £1 (once smaller prizes were taken into account). Of course, you had only a 1 in 14 million chance (per ticket) of winning the big one, but the maths still stand up.

Nevertheless I agree that, in general, lotteries are a tax on the ignorant.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math(s).

Even if one ignores the potentially valuable intangibles of fun and hope there are lots of different ways of doing the calculations for this sort of thing. One of them is that for minimum outlay of money and effort (effectively no opportunity cost) it takes the chances of becoming a multi-millionaire from zero* to non-zero - so assuming that outcome is desirable it's infinitely better to be in than not.

*Zero for most people - certainly for me.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math(s).

"Even if one ignores the potentially valuable intangibles of fun and hope"

This is the Reg forums. One definitely ignores the potentially valuable intangibles of fun and hope.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math(s).

1 in 3000 people in the UK of working age earn more than a million GBP a year -- but how many people think they have more chance of winning the lottery than ever earning that much?

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

"Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math(s)."

People who think that are people who aren't smart enough to understand that the utility value of cash isn't linear.

Small and huge amounts of cash (relative to income) are useless - the stuff in the middle is the life-changing bit.

For example, someone on a reasonable salary can lose £1 a week without it having any effect on their life but winning multiple millions on the lottery is live-changing (whether for better or worse!)

The only people who shouldn't play the lottery are very poor people who can't afford it and people who's life wouldn't be changed by winning (either because they are already as rich as Croesus or because they aren't motivated by money)

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Pint

Re: During the meanwhile ...

"Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math(s)."

I find Lotteries to be more a tax on Optimists. And I approve, they should be taxed on the half-full glass. Pessimists should get a discount, on account that half of their glass is empty.

Personally, I'm half-way to my next drink.

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

>if I buy a £2 lottery ticket then I am infinitely more likely to win the lottery than if I didn't...

But if you don't then you are only 1 in 130,000,000 less likely to win and you have saved £2!

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

The chance of winning the lottery is around 0,0000003% (small winnings) and winning the big price is around 0,000000020% at any given time (using flat normal lottery system with 10 lines in any game). The question is not how much is spent on the lottery ticket. It's an question if you are just using plain lottery ticket or mathematical ticket (more expensive but give extra numbers and lines in return that increase your chances to win).

It is possible to win the lottery using mathematics. What can't account for is the random factors of number alignment. By using mathematics you can increase your chances by several factors. I also have the rule (and it pays out as expected), the rule that you got more chance to win smaller amount than larger ones.

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math(s).

I buy lottery tickets three or four times a year because I find it quite fun to imagine I might win even though I'm well aware of the odds. For the amount of entertainment I get out of pretending the ticket I just bought might just be a winner for a few days it's well worth the $2 it cost. And since I'm only pretending I can win there's no letdown when I lose.

Also, the last three times I've bought lottery tickets I've actually gotten back more than I spent on the tickets. The game I normally play when I play pays $3 if you match two numbers, which I've managed to do every time through shear dumb luck. So, technically, I've won the lottery three times this year :-)

(If I ever win a jackpot I'll probably die of shock before I can claim it. That's not what I play the lottery for.)

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What's really wrong with metric...

Here's the tihing..".rising expectations" is everything!

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Anonymous Coward

Re: During the meanwhile ...

"If I ever win a jackpot I'll probably die of shock before I can claim it."

So, basically, when you buy a lottery ticket, you're playing a form of Russian Roulette, but with significantly better odds. Interesting way of looking at it...

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

But if you don't then you are only 1 in 130,000,000 less likely to win and you have saved £2!

If you don't buy a ticket you are actually infinitely less likely to win (not "only 1 in 130,000,000 less likely to win"). Yes you have saved £2.

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Re: During the meanwhile ...

Small and huge amounts of cash (relative to income) are useless

Nonsense. For the price of a lottery ticket I can buy a cup of coffee, which improves my standard of living significantly, if only for the short term.

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Mushroom

2032?

Maybe the Mayans forgot to carry the 20?

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That will save us all....

Next week I was going to work on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem

I'll take a few days off instead.

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Re: That will save us all....

Erm, except that Y2038 arrives *before* the earth-shattering* kaboom. So get working!

*Yes I know it worn't actually shatter the earth, but it's a good phrase and I like using it, so there.

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Devil

Don't worry!

(...this side of the earth at least.)

This thing is going to hit New York. It always hits New York. Or Washington DC. Didn't you watch the documentaries?

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Re: Don't worry!

It really is an unlucky country, America. Or rather North America. Whoops no, I mean the smaller southern portion of North America. Big as countries go sure but for a space rock heading for Earth with so much surface area to choose from, even so much land to choose from not actually large at all. There must be some magnetism effect I guess. Poor merkins.

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Re: Don't worry!

I can tell you exactly where it'll hit - not NY or DC, but Yellowstone Lake. 2 Ameriapocalyptos for the price of one. Those survivalists in Idaho will definitely be in the wrong place!

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Re: Don't worry!

Of course I watch the documentaries and there are always a couple fragments that end up in the Eiffel tower and the Big Ben.

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Re: Don't worry!

I say we give the Eiffel Tower and the Big Ben to the USA Citizens in 2030, as a token gift of our appreciation for them playing a galactic shooting disk, mighty kind of those former-rebel states!

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Don't worry!

There must be some magnetism effect I guess. Poor merkins.

Or some gravitational effect: the space rock is drawn towards the densest minds.

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