The Troodos Conundrum

Vimes,

I'm not sure how completely reliable Craig Murray is as a source. He's always struck me as a bit hysterical. I'd be surprised if the US keep him up-to-date on their intelligence assets either. Anyway possible sources are Turkey, Israel, Cyprus, Jordan, Iraq - or didn't the US have some success tapping Soviet microwave links with satellites back in the Cold War days? Not to mention the opportunities for sneaky-beakies like the SAS, SEALS or the CIA to hitch a ride from Turkey with some rebels, and plant interesting kit in naughty places. Oh and electronic listening ships, subs and aircraft.

I don't know how Syria's telecoms are routed, so I've no idea what's possible. There was a supposed telecoms intercept by a German intel ship of an Assad phone call, but that was reported from 'sources' by Bild am Sonntag - which is the German equivalent of the Sun. And that was suggesting he didn't authorise the attack and was asking who'd done it.

As for Mossad faking stuff, and the US falling for it (or being active conspirators), I'm sure both are entirely possible - but there are other more likely explanations. It was a large-scale well-co-ordinated chemical attack, over a relatively large area, delivered by surface to surface artillery rockets. It seems pretty unlikely that the rebels are up to that level of sophistication, or concealing that amount of kit around Damascus.

Plus I'm not sure I buy Israel's motive for this. In an ideal world, I suspect they'd like Assad to have avoided this civil war and stayed in power. They'd have had a permanently hostile border, but Syria were relatively predictable, and Israel could beat them militarily with ease. Who knows what will happen now, except it's quite likely that Hezbollah will come out stronger. With more Iranian weapons (and Syrian ones), more cash and some battle-hardened troops. So Israel's reason for the bombings, that they wanted to stop heavy weapons getting to Lebanon, seems pretty plausible - as Hezbollah have admitted they've got thousands of troops on the ground in Syria, and I'm sure they want paying. I suppose they could want an excuse to go in and physically remove/destroy Syria's chemical weapons. I'm sure they're extremely worried they'll fall into other hands. But that would be a huge operation, requiring far more commitment from the US, than they look likely to show, or Israel doing it themselves. Given the number of horrible options available, I can only imagine that Israel wants Assad to win, possibly bloodily and messily thus making himself, Iran and Hezbollah all horrifically unpopular in the process.