Pledges have reached almost $7,000 for The Register's crowd-funded NBN study, so we thought it's a good idea to let analysts explain how they'd approach the project. Today, IBRS analyst Guy Cranswick provides insights into his view of how to conduct the study. Of all the vexed issues surrounding the NBN debate, an assessment of …
Not fit for purpose
As expected, this is a group of product analysis types, capable of looking out a maximum of 5 years, but without any of the grounding that enables sensible prediction out to 20-50 years. Even the talking head says "...we look at scenarios that look realistic from point of view of 2013. Even by 2015, it will more than likely change, because there will be different factors that will have greater or lesser strength..."
We are talking about an NBN that doesn't really start earning it's stripes till 2020-2030 - its outside the scope of what these types can manage.
Look, they are evolutionary, proportional change types. They can tell you the next ipad will have this speed processor, even justify the decision for you, but they have zero credibility when talking about revolutionary level change. Pointless to waste the money.
Re: Not fit for purpose
Your comments are valid. Except, you knew that was coming, this is predicting the winner in a two horse race.
Yes, they may be only accurate out to three years. But what if, the analysis shows that after three years FTTH/P is proceeding well and works well and also shows that FTTN is useless. At that point, it really doesn't matter what the situation is going to be in 2030. FTTH has a greater probability of succeeding than does FTTN over the same timeframe, seeing as one method starts from being useless, it sure 'aint going to improve.
Now, having said all of that, I'm sure you are aware that I have a bias. I'm not going to get FTTH in my lifetime where I live, but I do want it for everybody else.
Why FTTP rather than FTTN? Because it would allow us to use all these wonderful bandwidth tricks currently tested in laboratories around the world: entanglement, spin, etc. These require photons in fibre, not electrons in copper.
Just fix the goddamn internet
I can tell your analysts one thing - the internet in Australia currently sucks.
Using mobile networks to provide high speed, reliable, internet to households is currently pie in the sky. It may be possible one day, but certainly not right now.
Hopefully fibre to the premises will provide low lag internet. Lag is the real enemy.
NBN is a force multiplier for small/medium business
"The NBN is a consumer play, Cranswick pointed out"
"consumer play" I think this is an error that a lot of commentators make one of the biggest benefactors of the NBN will be the small to medium business
NBN is a force multiplier that will allow small/medium business to compete with much bigger players
It also seems to ignore the content creation effect the NBN will support
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