Re: MS are trying a little harder to push the Surface than the Zune
"In Q4 of 2012 MS Phone share collapsed from 3.2% to 2.5%." - citation?
Moreover, was it a loss of customers, or whole market growth outpacing growth of the WinPhone platform? If 1000 phones sell in Q1 and I sell 100 of them, I have a 10% market share that quarter. If in Q2, 4000 phones sell, and I sell another 200, despite the fact that my sales have doubled from Q1 to Q2, my market share in Q2 is only 5%, and 6% as a whole.
"Near the beginning of the year , activations were screaming along at over 700,000 a day. As of the third quarter of 2012, though, that has almost doubled to 1,300,000 a daily." (source). Moreover, it's funny you should mention the figure of 25%, as this appears to be the growth in Android activations in Q3 of last year (source). Given just how much of the market share is Android, it strikes me that it's more likely that numbers of Windows Phone users continued to grow during that period - just not at sufficient rate to keep up with a rapidly expanding market.
So I'm afraid that without sources of your figures to back up your argument, it doesn't really help. Unless you can find, link and crunch the numbers - although last time I challenged you to do similar (number of Android units sold in the first two years from launch vs number of Windows Phone - not mobile - units sold in the same life-cycle period), nothing ever came back...