back to article Mega-res telly demand to boom, say ball-gazers

If the world’s television makers are eager enough to try to convince World+Dog to buy a 4K x 2K TV, the world’s market watchers are no less keen to suggest the proponents of Ultra HD will be successful in the near future, with sales rocketing five years from now. This week’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas will …

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Meh

Nah

Blu-ray hasn't succeeded in replacing DVD by any means and if video streaming services like Netflix and Lovefilm continue to grow, why will people want to shell out a fortune on expensive TVs when a computer is capable of doing the job?

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Nah

I'd imagine the next gen of 4k screens will come with a decent computer on the back to allow them to be 'connected'.

I've always thought Sony have been missing a trick by not lumping a PS3 into their high end TVs. Not only would it drive BR or Game sales, it would also bring people to their online shop, and as an added bonus would make all the on screen graphics damn pretty. (Instead of all the graphics that appear to be from the 16bit era like all TV makers seem to have.) Also there must be masses of duplication with a PS3+Play chucked into a TV, so the savings on the package would be pretty good too.

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JDX
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when a computer is capable of doing the job

What makes you think people aren't watching Netflix on TV? Modern TVs have it built in and the rest of us just use the PS3/XBox/Wii or plug a laptop into the TV. Meaning you have a computer AND a TV.

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Re: when a computer is capable of doing the job

What jdx said! Our bluray player has netflix, hulu et al built in.

4k is coming, they need to sell sets and 3d was a relative flop. They can't sell that many huge 100+ inch sets so the next thing to push was higher res.

Initially 4k is only really going to be for early adopters and those with a real need (photographers \ videographers ). They either won't be disuaded by a lack of diverse content or compromised delivery methods (upscaled 1080p). In the short term I would expect ultra hd 'players' to use modified bluray standards, higher compression \ dual sided or dual discs (maybe 2 drives to allow for seamless switching mid movie?) and \ or downloadable content cached if it cannot be streamed fast enough.

A lot was invested in bluray and it's still not completely 'won' against dvd. I can't see it being usurped by another physical method but streaming could do it if codecs \ bandwidth (and caps) improves to the point where 4k can be streamed to the majority of people who want it. This is one area where cable and satellite companies can win, if they really wanted to they could offer 4k vod but given their half arsed 720p \1080i with shitty compression approach to hd I'm not holding my breath.

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Anonymous Coward

Do You

Want to buy all your favourite films AGAIN in new '4K HD' ???

I don't think you do.

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Re: Do You

all my films? no, all my favorites, sure, probably 20-30 of them.

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FAIL

Non UHD peepers

Unfortunately my receiving hardware will not notice any difference with an increase in resolution, so they won't be getting any sales from this household.

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while 79inch 4kx2k screen would be nice if you wanted to view it from across the street...

i would be more interested if they made 42inch screen have a higher DPI for a sharper image tbh...

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Boffin

Re: while 79inch 4kx2k screen would be nice if you wanted to view it from across the street...

Well if you do the math, think about the pixel density required to do a 42" at 4K resolution.

I would expect that the yield would be considerably lower on the higher density screens.

I agree and would love to see something less than 50" in a 4K resolution. Yet, you will have the same issues that plague us where broadband (cable) resolution will be stunted due to the compression algos used.

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Re: while 79inch 4kx2k screen would be nice if you wanted to view it from across the street...

Higher dpi may mean more dead pixels, but if the screens themselves are smaller then that will mitigate that to some degree and if the pixels are smaller they will be less noticeable.

Theres already a 10 inch 4k screen, in a few years you can expect to see them in tablets. Mid sized 4k screens will also come, you can already get 36.4 inch uhd screens from Eizo.

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Happy

Perhaps

if these testicle starers would stop gazing at their generative organs then maybe at some point they might actually predict something correctly.

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jai
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are these...

the same people who told us all how the world + dog was gonna bust a nut to have 3D tv last year?

because if so, i suspect they're more of an advertising firm than market analysts

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Re: are these...

Having done all the work of putting the extra pixels for 1080p in 3D, changing the screens for 4k isn't too much of a challenge and Blu-Ray upscales reasonably well.

I don't see a new media format being used for this - it looks like an excellent opportunity for premium broadband for the usual suspects: cable operators and content providers (Utlraviolet), as people get used to streaming as opposed to physical media.

Need to do some back of the envelope calculations but a lot of people probably already have sufficient bandwidth for receiving, thought you'd probably want to have a fairly generous buffer to be sure. Serving the stuff might be another matter but content providers have a considerable interest in recovering business already lost to Netflix/Lovefilm etc.

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content medium

What was that recent Reg article? Oh yeah: If you buy one of Sony's £16,000 TVs they will lend you a HDD-based media server with a few movies on it...

If you wanted to be 80s retro about it, just imagine having a shop in every town, from where you can pick up a couple of movies on HDDs (VHS size, conveniently) on a Friday night, and drop em back Sunday. Blockbuster could see their share price rise, until everybody gets fibre broadband.... Be kind, de frag.... [Meanwhile, back in reality]

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Re: content medium

BDXL should cope with 4k especially if theres a revamped codec. I can see a situation where in a few years you can rent movies on usb 3.0 flash drives from kiosks (or your own drive gets filled there and then).

As for bandwidth, 4k has 4x the pixels of 1080p, although this won't translate to 4x the bandwidth. I can see it needing between 25 and 40mbps for quality (i.e. movie not tv) streaming.

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Anonymous Coward

Where are people supposed to get the content from?

I've not heard any mention of a BR replacement, and I assume sky/cable/freeview/average broadband doesnt have the bandwidth required.

So whats the point? Or are we supposed to buy into the belief that upscaled content will be significantly better enough to justify the TV?

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Anonymous Coward

Bluray already has a standardized format capable of 128GB, and there are other much higher capacity bluray formats in the lab, the highest I've heard of was around 500GB but the theoretical limit is supposedly somewhere around 5TB.

But with the new codec they plan to use for 4K the 128GB disks should be sufficient.

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FAIL

My BransonVision cable channels are crappy and artifact filled when viewed on my 28" crt telly. I estimate it will be 2033 before I will need to upgrade to HD.

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Sky and Cable could do 4k without too much chaos although it would likely need a new codec + stb, freeview\freesat would probably need more reworking due to how it is structured & regulated. Content will come from a variety of sourced, you mention cable, Virgin offers broadband that could stream 4k and BT is heading that way with its new network. Bluray as a physical medium can cope with 4k although it will need new hardware and a tweak in the standards if not a new codec but it won't need to be replaced altogether.

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Silver badge

Call me when they make wallpaper which can display an HD image streamed from some suitable box. As that's about the only way there's going to be enough space in my house to have an image that big displayed.

Sounds like yet another solution looking for a problem, or a requirement in this case.

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Facepalm

"Call me when they make wallpaper which can display an HD image"

It's called hanging a decent projector from your ceiling. There you are, job done. Personally I'd rather go with a projector than obliterate half a house wall with a black rectangle until we fire up the nuclear reactor to power it.

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Holmes

You will have to wait...

until apple make one, then Samsung et al will copy it, then you will have large hi-def tv's

Thats the way it works now, Apple invents and Korea copies.

(and yes, i am aware the truth will cause many down votes)

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FAIL

Re: You will have to wait...

Well trolled, so I will bite my little bridge dweller.

As Samsung have been making UDTV's for a few years now, it shows that you believe Apple marketing machine, in that they invent everything and everyone copies.

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Re: You will have to wait...

You don't mean "Apple invents", you mean "Apple packages". Unless you can prove me wrong by stating a single proper invention other than arguably the aluminium unibody process.

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Re: You will have to wait...

You can't even argue the aluminium unibody really seeing as monocoque design has been around in other industries for decades and only the US patent office would think that taking an existing idea and applying it to a different product is innovation.

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Silver badge

Re: You will have to wait...

There are quite a few companies with 4k displays \ projectors out there, some since 2007, I know of Chinese, Korean, Japanese companies etc, none of them Apple. However, I am sure when Apple does release a 4k set it will look awesome, their propaganda department will claim its made with pixie jizz , history will be rewritten and they will be the first to have done it. Then the lawsuits will start.

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If you've got a TV big enough for this to make any difference,

then I look forward to seeing your house on "Cribs".

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FAIL

Re: If you've got a TV big enough for this to make any difference,

Indeed - who the hell in general has the space for a 60 inch screen?

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Re: If you've got a TV big enough for this to make any difference,

Currently I use a data projector against a wall. The idea that you would want to lose a wall to a TV that size is silly.

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Boffin

@Cyborg Re: If you've got a TV big enough for this to make any difference,

I actually have the space for it.

But here's the rub.

1) 4K would be nice, but no content.

2) No content means that its not worth buying. And any content would be on multiple disk blu rays, right?

Cable bandwidth is nice, but then you would have to reduce the number of channels to get the bandwidth.

Meaning the same cable that carries 500 stations would only be able to carry 100 or so channels, right?

Cable stations don't care about program quality as long as they can sell advertising on them so more channels beats higher definition channels.

Or you could go and launch your own set of satellites which can handle the higher quality images and create your own networks.

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JDX
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Re: @Cyborg If you've got a TV big enough for this to make any difference,

What compression is used on BR video... it's certainly possible to get a lot more video on a DVD than the DVD standard codec allows using modern codecs so perhaps the same is true here too? Or maybe BR is already using a near-optimal codec?

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Re: If you've got a TV big enough for this to make any difference,

What do you plan to DO with the wall when you're not projecting on it? Presumably the addition of art, shelves etc would detract from the projected media.

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Silver badge

Re: @Cyborg If you've got a TV big enough for this to make any difference,

You can compress a blu ray movie to about 5GB without any noticeable drop in quality. Quadruple the size for the extra pixels, and you still have plenty of space on a standard blu ray disk.

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M7S
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I'm looking forward to seeing this technical challenge sorted out

"don’t underestimate the ability of codec writers to devise even more efficient ways of squeezing much larger images through barely wider pipes"

If they can get a full signal through the "barely better than dial up" that BT calls broadband where I am without it stuttering, I'll be impressed.

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More than that...

I had a terrible response from 4OD at my parents house over Christmas -- someone was clearly throttling it somewhere along the line, as multi-megabyte software installs downloades pretty damn quickly, and 4OD was fine at "unsocial hours". And I used to work in an office that became distinctly unproductive after 3:30 when schoolkids got home and choked up the BT bandwidth that we needed to connect to our data centre hundreds of miles away.

There isn't quite enough capacity on the internet as it is, and squeezing extra pixels into the next series of Strictly isn't a good use of what there is.

And besides, while I'd never underestimate the ability of codec writers, I'd never overestimate the intelligence of codec implementers either. MP3 was long derided as a useless music format because (as I understand it) the most popular encoders in commercial use for over a decade were really really bad at encoding music without degrading the signal atrociously.

And consider the whole backward compatibility problem -- DAB is rubbish and there's a better option (DAB+), but we can't use it because there's existing sets that don't support it. The only reason we've been able to move to Freeview+ is because of HD. Freeview+ on SD would give superior results, but it would render a lot of kit obsolete.

So if the codec writers produce that amazing new mathemagic just a little bit too late, we won't get to use it....

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Meh

Not any interest at all, until there's content worth watching. And the ablity to do so without utterly banal advertising.

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Anonymous Coward

previous posters have missed the main benefit (for me at least)

A ultra high def TV like that would be great for hooking up to a PC to do:

- photoshop work on high resolution DSLR images

- CAD

- anything else requiring such large screen real estate

And you can do it sitting a few feet/metres from the screen, which means that your eyes don't have to focus as close as with a traditional screen, which in turn will be better for our eyesight.

The ability for it to play upressed HD content (which should look better than same HD content on a 1080p screen) is just one added benefit!

My 2 pence

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Paris Hilton

4K is so Black and White

What with 8K SuperHD already being used in Japan.

Paris - Cos she has space for 60".

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I'll buy one, as long as it's not 3D-enabled.

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All 3D means is that it can go at 120Hz instead of 60 (or 100 / 50 depending on location) and many TVs did this even before the rise of 3D, plus a few pence spent on an IR device to sync the goggles.

If you don't want your new TV to be 3D enabled, just don't buy the glasses. Or poke an eye out, whatever suits you.

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Angel

Re: TV boycott

Everybody off Eadon's lawn, now!

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JDX
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Re: TV boycott

Whereas posting on internet forums is a valuable use of your precious time.

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Re: TV boycott

JDX,

you don't understand. Eadon is on a mission to promote desktop Linux by telling everyone the alternatives are crap (instead of using his time to make Linux even better, which I naively thought was the whole point of the OS)

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Anonymous Coward

Development needs to slow down, it's getting to the situation where you feel like you need to buy a new TV every two years which is crazy. We kept one B&O TV for nearly 20 years before it needed replacing.

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Anonymous Coward

I think that is the whole point...

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FAIL

Cart meet horse

With no discernible source of Ultra HD content , it's like kissing your sister , why bother?

Even the game consoles will be upscaled.

Another plot to remove money from your wallet .

I betcha those 480 youtube videos will look great.

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JDX
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Re: Cart meet horse

Why won't you be able to download 4k content? If the bitrate is too much for streaming, we'll see providers reverting to download copies as a sales method.

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Seriously? A million units in 2015?

These guys are crazy.

There's no way people are going to jump all over a TV format only available to people with the space and money for a 60-100 inch TV, when there's no content for it. All you'll be able to watch is upscaled HD (or heaven help you, upscaled non-HD) for years. And they're gonna have to be considerably more expensive than current TV's, if the manufacturers want to make money off them (which they seem to be having a hard time with at present). The only way anyone will buy 4k in the next few years is if they're deceived about what it's capable of (which we can count on marketing to work overtime on) or if they're doing something niche (like the reader proposing using it at a computer screen).

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Re: Seriously? A million units in 2015?

>These guys are crazy.

You are inummerate:

Capegemini, a financial consultancy, defines a millionaire as anyone with investable assets of $1 million or more – meaning that they actually have over a million dollars as that doesn't include the home in which they live, for instance. By this measure there are about 10 million millionaires on the planet, according to Capegemini and Merrill Lynch.

So even if just 10% of millionaires bought one each, that figure would be about right. You say lack of content? That is is so easy to fix, even with existing media- just use a HDD media server, doesn't matter if individual Blu-rays have to loaded onto it first (the butler can do it). Or, shocker, have a media server with 3 x Blu-ray ROMs, cos at £40 they will really break the millionaire's bank.

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