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back to article Apple forecast to sell 8m iPhone 5s next weekend

Two long-time Apple watchers have said they are "confident" the Cupertino company can shift 8 million iPhone 5 handsets during the three days after the smartphone goes on sale. The iPhone 5 chalked up more than 2 million advance orders after Apple began taking them, and that's convinced Piper Jaffray analysts Gene Muster and …

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Anonymous Coward

More caution...

...is required as to how many of these are speculators.

I just look at these figures and chuckle.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: More caution...

Quite.

Some guy is saying over on the Telegraph that Apple just can't fail.

It has 6 products, and is essentially a reseller for most of them. 650 Billion dollars? I don't think so. Lots of people will be burned

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Anonymous Coward

Re: More caution...

Why you own AAPL shares?

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Anonymous Coward

Re: More caution...

... and you know that WHY? Just because it gets someone else to manufacture does not mean they are a reseller - why bother having all the hassle and overhead when you can get someone else to manufacture them for a few percent above cost?

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Anonymous Coward

Re: More caution...

Because the someone else then has the technical knowledge of how to make the product, and if they are outside your country (and so can potentially ignore your country's IP laws) they can create knockoffs much cheaper, since you did all the R&D work. Currently the US is putting vast effort into enforcing "IP" worldwide because, in consumer industries, it has little else. But it is hard to believe that, beyond a certain point, BRIC will allow this. Already Huawei is producing very competitive phones and extending beyond the internal market. Apple and Google taught them how to do this.

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Facepalm

Re: More caution...

Caution is not required - if the iPhone5 sells out, just give 'em the iPhone4S: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdIWKytq_q4

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Silver badge

Re: More caution...

This doesn't make sense. I've looked at the iPhone 5 specs and it doesn't compare favourably to other top-end phones that are on the market now or will be in the next few months. While I can understand why someone wouldn't want the hassle of changing OS platforms, I can't understand why they wouldn't just hold on to their existing 3GS, 4, 4S and wait for the 6 (to see if that's any better). Save for contract churn, I can't see Apple selling many more of these in any significant quantity and I think all of the media speculation is just Apple-compliant bloggers trying to talk-up the market for what is a lack-lustre release. I think Apple's next few earnings announcements will be humbling for those who recently bought in.

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Stop

Re: More caution...

You're getting confused by tick-list marketing. Early indications are that the A6 CPU is at least a match for the top-of-the-range quad cores, more so because few apps are optimised for multiple cores so they will be making use of less than 1/2 of the available resources on a 4 core CPU. The iPad 3 is already regarded as one of the fastest tablets out there, even with only two cores and a mere 1GB of RAM, because apps can make better use of the available resources.

Beyond that users want a fast GPU (which was a strong point for even the old A5, the A6 is claimed to double that), lots of quality apps, a good screen (huge isn't a priority for most), fast radio and long battery life. From their perspective the iPhone 5 is at least a match for any Android phone on the market, and there's an infrastructure of devices around it that Android lacks (docking bays, admittedly with adapters for the short term, wireless speakers etc).

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Silver badge

Re: More caution...

I know lots of people with iphone 3GS and 4 who did not bother with a 4S (or a 4, in the case of the 3GS), and have been sitting on unsubsidised, month to month contracts waiting for a phone they want to upgrade to to be launched.

I think it would be nuts to change from a 4S to a 5.

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Megaphone

Re: More caution...

I'm not sure why I'm saying this, but you need to give Apple more credit here. The IPhone 5 beats all other phones on the market in all the benchmarks that I've seen check out anandtech.com), is more than twice as fast as the 4S (which is itself no slouch) has a larger screen and therefore a different chassis which is thinner and lighter than the previous generation while delivering more battery life. What exactly were you expecting?

If you believe paper specs reflect the way the devices run across different platforms you are sadly deluded. I've never had performance issues on any iPhone, but frequently have on Android because the software is bloated and badly optimised for the hardware these days. The primary feature of Jelly Bean is that it finally makes Android seem as smooth as the iPhone (it doesn't in real life, but some people will believe them) and other platforms still lack the true voice of apps available to iOS owners.

In short, I find your doubt misplaced and fully expect Apple to be able to sell as many as it can make in the run up to Christmas. Mine arrives Friday, and once people start seeing the device and feel how far improved the build quality is on something like the Samsung phone they will want it. I used to own the galaxy 3 and it felt much cheaper than it actually was, along with all the usual complaints for Android phones.

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Anonymous Coward

So, come the revolution.....

.....we'll need a wall that can comfortably accomodate at least 6 million people :)

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Anonymous Coward

Re: So, come the revolution.....

Is it suitably ironic that there's a big enough one in China already?

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Anonymous Coward

Re: So, come the revolution.....

Oh please! Buying a different brand of consumer goods from another mega-sized multinational capitalist organisation does not make you a revolutionary.

You're just as much of a tool as the most ardent fanboi - you just have a different label.

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Re: So, come the revolution.....

So you're saying the 2 million who placed advance orders are ok?

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Anonymous Coward

Re: So, come the revolution.....

2m was the number of orders in the first day of them being able to order and only direct orders - i.e. none of the cell operator orders - so the final figure will be much, much higher. Some cell operators have stated that next quarter profits will be dented by having to buy iPhones as they buy them now and recover the cost over the life of your contract.

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Linux

Context?

Do I recall correctly that the Galaxy S3 managed 9 million advance orders? Or am I hallucinating?

GJC

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Context?

2m is the number of pre-orders DIRECT with Apple on their store - it does not include orders by operators or people who actually go to the store and buy one.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Context?

It's only sold 20 million so far (and note that journalists routinely translate Samsung's 'shipped' into 'sold')

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Stop

Re: Context?

That was the number that was rumoured for CARRIER orders, 9 million split between 100 different carriers (90,000 each on average isn't a huge number), what is known in the trade as "sell in". Getting them in to the sticky little hands of customers is a different matter. That's known as "sell out" and is the only number that really counts as sell in orders can be cancelled or returned if they don't shift. Apple's pre-order numbers are all sell out.

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It's not surprising

In the US, most smartphone users are on a two year contract that subsidizes most if not all of the cost of the phone. It's been well over two years since the iphone 4 was introduced, so there is alot of pent up demand for the iphone 5 - much more than if the iphone 5 would have been introduced on or before the 2 year annaversary of the iphone 4.

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Anonymous Coward

What irks me...

... is that Samsung are making 5m S3's a month. If they're doing that, then why the hell can't Apple produce enough and put a stop to all this speculation crap.

Do they really think that little of their loyal customers (and I'm not one of them, by the way) that they can work them up in to a frenzy so that Apple can profit from the speculators like this?

If they had a reasonable number of handsets ready (and given the Samsung production figures, and all the rumours that have been going around for a while, proving that the 5 wsa in production for some time) then why the hell do they treat people like this? The only reason I can think of is, profit. And that's reason enough for me to be turned off Apple.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: What irks me...

WOW! That was only up for a couple of minutes and it got thumbed down. The fanbois really are on the ball today :-D

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Anonymous Coward

Re: What irks me...

Apple only announced it a week ago and they move very quickly from production to sales to stop too much info leaking. Pretty sure they will be making them as quickly as possible.

There is little reason for Apple to under-produce the '5' - of course it may 'hype' it up a bit if people cannot get them - but it will also cost them sales so the two probably cancel each other out. It's in Apple's interest to make as many as they can and remember the 2m is the direct sales via their web site on the first day only. Add in the millions that will have been pre-ordered by telcos all around the world.

If Apple could make they twice as quickly I'm certain they would - even then they sold out in the first hour or two - so twice as many may have lasted 3-4 hours...?

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Coat

Re: What irks me...

Sorry, added another downvote to help your argument there ... not a fanboi, but couldn't help myself ^^

companies wanting to make profit is truly out of order indeed !

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Anonymous Coward

Re: What irks me...

How long before the iPhone 5 has sold more than the Galaxy S3 has ever - perhaps a month... or less?

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WTF?

A life.

If this really 'irks' you, you desperately need to get one. And what do you mean "why the hell do they treat people like this?" if they can't make enough phones to ship, they can't make enough phones to ship. It's not bleeding rocket science. How in the hell a company can profit from not selling a device? It's the epitome of twisted logic! Beside, the whole *point* of a business is to profit! Google don't give Android away for free out of altruism, no matter what the Chocolate Factory's propaganda machine tells you.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: What irks me...

That's the whole point ... we can't really believe any of these figures. Everyone will be pulling all and any tricks they can to gain the upper hand in the press.

And to play petty with each other while inconveniencing the customer ... yeh, make a profit, but not while pissing off the people that ultimately buy the product and pay the bills.

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Stop

Re: What irks me...

Firstly it takes time to ramp up production. You don't start by making 5+ million/month, you have to knock the bugs out of the process, suppliers have to do the same with their parts also.

Second it's expensive to keep 5+ million devices in a warehouse for a couple of months until you've got enough to meet initial demand.

Thirdly making your production line big enough to meet an initial surge will leave it underused for most of the rest of the year.

It's pretty obvious why any company with the same popularity would have the same problem, and there are plenty of examples you can point at (Canon's 5D DSLR range, Nintend's Wii Fit etc).

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Silver badge

Re: What irks me...

If Apple could make they twice as quickly I'm certain they would - even then they sold out in the first hour or two - so twice as many may have lasted 3-4 hours...?

Exactly - if they could make them twice as quickly without spending a fortune on being able to make them twice as quickly, they would.

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jai
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FAIL

Re: What irks me...

WOW! That was only up for a couple of minutes

or, instead of it being fanbois down voting you out of blind loyalty, could it, perhaps, be people down voting you because you're post was complete rubbish.

what are you suggesting, that Apple should have pre-built 20million iPhone 5 units and then sat around on them, hoping they'd eventually sell them all? and in the mean time, stop production until those are sold and then have to start up the production lines all over again?

everyone goes on and on about Apple being arrogant, yet the criticise them for erring on the side of caution in their initial production runs.

yes, i agree, the publicity it generates does not hurt. and it's a publicity wave that every single iPhone launch has ridden. But equally, it's laughable to suggest that they should have over-estimated the number of units to produce and then incurred the costs of sitting on unsold stock.

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Go

Re: What irks me...

I think it has always worked in their favour when people are talking about them constantly and giving them free publicity. I'm glad people have stopped ogling the Samsung Galaxy 3. Throughout the Olympics, I nearly became hoarse watching the David Beckham ads screaming "I've got one and they're shite!!!" at the telly.

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Go

Re: A life.

Agreed, the new law of economics as PWC teach it states that supply should be exactly correlated to demand apart from when the company is Apple!

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Facepalm

Wait a tick.

I thought they had no stock? So magically, overnight they find 6 million handsets tucked down the back of the sofa?

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jai
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Re: Wait a tick.

there is only a set amount of stock set aside for the pre-orders via the internet store. the rest are allocated to be sold through either the mobile phone operators own pre-order mechanism, or through the high street stores.

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Developers

I wonder how many of the day 1 sales are developers. And of those, how many bought >1 device (development, testing).

The one thing that gets a dev to upgrade kit is a new form factor, so it stands to reason people will be clamouring to get theirs early given iPhones are typically in a trickle supply (I know we do, after being burned more than once).

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