back to article iPhone 5 to boost US GDP says JP Morgan

The imminent release of the iPhone 5 could add 0.33% to growth of the USA's gross domestic product, according to JPMorgan Chase Bank's Michael Feroli. In a note titled “Can one little phone impact GDP?" Feroli concludes that yes, it can, because: “Our equity analysts believe around 8 million iPhone 5's will be sold in the US …

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Depends on what is new in the iphone, if larger screen and LTE are all they add I don't see some ppl even wasting $ on it when they can get as good of phone from samsung and most already have.

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When iPhone 4S came out and it added far less than this there were a lot of people predicting the same thing, yet it broke all sales records. They will do the same with iPhone 5, even if it that's all it has. LTE and a bigger screen have been the major reason for some people to choose Android. You know, average people, for whom phones are a tool rather than a religion - who are not "choosing Android" because they don't know what the hell Android or iOS even are, they just know "this phone has LTE so it's faster, and a bigger screen, so I want it!" Now people who feel their phone must have LTE or at least a 4" screen can consider Apple where they previously wouldn't. That will help Apple more than adding every other feature any other phone in the world has all in one glorious package.

What exactly could be new that you think would be deserving of an upgrade? Wireless charging? Pointless gimmick. More megapixels on the camera, better lens? Yawn, every phone makes incremental improvements here with each model, but real photo buffs own an actual camera. NFC? Mostly useless without some wide ranging merchant agreements that make it useful in more than a fraction of retail outlets. Quad core? Don't make me laugh. HDMI? Stupid. Projector? Even stupider.

There really isn't much in the way of major improvements for smartphone hardware on the horizon, from this point it'll be software improvements enabled by industry agreements (with retailers, music/movie industry, and so on) that enable real benefit. Only fanboys care about hardware specs like cores, clock rate, RAM and so on, what matters is being able to do totally new things with it. Smartphones subsumed the function of PDAs/addressbooks, casual cameras, GPS devices, and portable music players. Those were what was important, not adding a camera or adding GPS.

Think about what other things a smartphone could obsolete or what things in our daily lives we do in some other way that a smartphone could do better/easier. That's where smartphones will go next. Not gimmicks like wireless charging or projectors.

Phones are getting those gimmicks today because they are out of really good ideas for the moment, but people who compare phones based on specs and feature lists demand something new to start fanboy flamewars over, not caring that they don't ever use the feature. Consider how Android fans used to slag on iPhone for not having an HDMI port. iPhone still doesn't have it, but all those people realized that it is stupid to brag about a feature on their phone they have never used in the two years since they bought it, so you never hear people saying their phone is superior because it has HDMI anymore.

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Meh

If it

If it were made in the US it would have a bigger influence, but it's not it's made in China instead.

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Anonymous Coward

Tell me what else they can add?

Nobody has released a revolutionary phone since the first iPhone. They've all been evolutionary.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: If it

We've all set china up as a manufacturing base. They have minerals and other raw materials that they refuse to export. Moving production back to a country like the US would be expensive and uncompetitive.

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Yeah but then you're stuck with a cheap phone whose OS will be lucky to get one upgrade because they rather that you just buy another phone if you want an upgrade.

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Mushroom

Yeah

Because JP were so spot on in the past. Their biggest hits: Enron, Worldcom, Blythe Masters, Bruno Iksil and who can forget Jamie Dimon. What's a few billion dollars among friends, right?

Derive this JP.

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FAIL

Unbiased.

I'm sure that JP Morgan could not be in cahoots with Apple.

http://www.apple.com/ca/cepp/jpmorgan/

Or, I could be mistaken.

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Devil

Just goes to show how flawed this metric is nowdays

Right, so consumer spending on a product where 60% or so of it goes straight to China and Korea raises the GDP of country. Nice economics... When you can have it...

More like raise the trade deficit if you ask me...

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Re: Just goes to show how flawed this metric is nowdays

Who cares about the real economy, little people and taxpayers? The role of Big Business is to enhance the lifestyle in the boardroom. Everything else is secondary.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Just goes to show how flawed this metric is nowdays

The margins on the iPhone and other phones are quite large, so it's more like 30 or 40% per unit goes to China.

But how is that any different to Samsung, Sony or anyone else?

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or perhaps not

if the Judge in the HTC case comes to the radical conclusion that it is legal for people other than Apple to own patents.

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Re: or perhaps not

Lets just hope!

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Logical fallacy

Assuming people have a limited amount of disposable income, then their contribution to GDP is dependent on the proportion of that income that they do not choose to save. Purchases of consumer goods like phones will generally displace other items (phones from other makers) or possibly defer purchasing from one period to another (the biggest argument brought forward recently was about people "waiting" for the I-phone 5). So even a nominal rise in GDP will be limited. More important is what happens to the profits that Apple makes on such sales: is it redistributed within the economy and thus possibly increasing the average disposable income? is it redistributed to shareholders, many of whom are not in the US, in the form of dividends? or does Apple continue to horde the cash (as many businesses have been doing the last few years)?

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and it will sell

Lets face it, the iPhone 5 upgrade will be boring, we pretty much know that, a slightly bigger screen and ... well that is about it. As were the the 4 & 4S. And before the fanbois start, I am not a fandroid, I own an iPhone.

Face it though, handsets from other makers are far more exciting, including the new Nokias and they offer more features.

Despite that the iPhone 5 will sell like hot cakes because they are seen as being cool and the media hype tells consumers who don't know any better that the iPhones are the best. Which a couple of years ago they probably were.

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Err

"Right, so consumer spending on a product where 60% or so of it goes straight to China and Korea raises the GDP of country. Nice economics"

Yes, the paper is nice economics. For they do subtract the import value from the effect on GDP. As they ought to. From memory it's $600 sales value minus $200 kit value gives $400 per handset effect on the domestic US economy.

"Assuming people have a limited amount of disposable income, then their contribution to GDP is dependent on the proportion of that income that they do not choose to save. Purchases of consumer goods like phones will generally displace other items (phones from other makers) or possibly defer purchasing from one period to another (the biggest argument brought forward recently was about people "waiting" for the I-phone 5)."

That is indeed the one mistake they make. How much of the sales will be consumer spending that otherwise would not happen and how much will be simple displacement.

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Happy

Nice chunky margin

A few more iPhone releases in the next few years should wipe out the US national debts completely.

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Mushroom

Or...

...think how much better off the US economy would be if Apple had to pay REAL taxes on its income...or the approximately USD$66 BILLION in CASH it has stashed offshore.

Or other US Tech companies:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-28/biggest-tax-avoiders-win-most-gaming-1-trillion-u-s-tax-break.html

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