back to article Windows 8 to grab iPad market share wrested back from Android

Windows 8 will dent Apple's dominance of the tablet market, but it's biggest impact will be to hold Android's growth back. So says market watcher Canalys, which reckons some 207m tablets will ship in 2016, around half of them iPads of one size or another. In that year, tablets will account for almost a third of all personal …

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Anonymous Coward

Unlikely to dent Apple unless it is so much better, but will probably dent the cheaper end of the market, android pads as it is an alternative.

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Regardless of technical merits, Apple have an advantage in that many people who want a tablet now already have one. But that only applies to existing userbase.

In terms of new sales, I could well see the Windows tablets hitting Apple in the pocket. After all, things like the Surface match the iPad's functionality and also add extras such as the keyboard, MS Office and better ports / interfaces. Though I think Android devices are going to be a bigger rival than this article thinks. In the West, they're on the back foot, but China is a big market and with Huwaei wading in with Andoid devices, it's got strong backing. I actually think Windows has the technical edge on Apple with Windows 8 which makes the long-term battle between Android and MS.

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Anonymous Coward

Android doesn't have Microsoft office. There's still loads of people who use it.

The problem will all tablets is they're still pretty simple in terms of the applications. While the full blown desktop approach with a thin veneer of touch didn't work for Microsoft in the past they at least have a full touch UI this time.

Android is too fragmented. With iOS and Windows people buying tablets know what applications they are getting, they know what interface to expect. With Android it's a lucky dip and the interface or applications you get largely depends on what brand you buy. That's no good for business users who want standardisation.

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Anonymous Coward

Cheaper end of the market?

Because you know for a fact how they all will be priced?

oh whats that?? You've only heard rumours??

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most "Market Analysts" these days are just peddling spin

They specialize in plausible spin, but still spin.

Valuable spin, since the system media will write about it, so some company will generally caugh up a lot of cash.

But mostly, its the opposite of 'helpful information' to most people reading it.

The more times you see it reported in different media venues, the more you can assume that the opposite is probably true.

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Not a terrible analysis

But on the Android side, I think they underestimate what disruptive products like Amazon's Kindle Fire HD might do (with Amazon's pricing model and captive customer base, I expect it will do extremely well).

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Childcatcher

windows 7 ?

> Preventing the Google OS from grabbing a share from Apple is Windows 7, though it'll only have a share of 17 per > cent or so by 2016, the researcher believes.

Steve B will be livid ... windows 8 was supposed to be the big breakthrough on tablets ... and now those pesky resellers and tablet makers go out and put windows 7 on their tablets.

Some people have just no shame

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Anonymous Coward

Re: windows 7 ?

If Windows 8 has the same bloat as Windows 7 then it will a big fail on tablets. My Windows 7 folder is about 20gb at the moment. This makes Windows 7 useless on a 16gb tablet.

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Re: windows 7 ?

And how many Windows tablets are going to have a measly 16GB hard drive? Correct, none.

Try 64GB, 128GB, 256GB etc etc

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Thumb Down

Re: windows 7 ?

@pcsupport

A tablet doesn't need the huge driver store for one thing. There's no need for any waste of precious solid state memory. Sorry I'm sticking with Android unless Windows 8 addresses the wasted space used by the OS that has nothing to do portable computing.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: windows 7 ?

Yea because 64GB, 128GB, 256GB etc tablets really sound like they're going to compete with Android at the lower price range don't they???

The bar has been set at £199 by the Galaxy Nexus, a great tablet at an amazing price.

If Microsoft can't compete with that then they will be up against Apple.

and if they're the same/similar price, no-one is going to select a Micrsoft tablet over an Apple.

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Mushroom

Re: windows 7 ?

If they are the same price, most people will select Windows tablets over Apple. Full OS, proper USB support, neat keyboards, and most importantly Microsoft Office.

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Anonymous Coward

Google Buys Microsoft

Then everyone can have office on or offline for a reasonable annual fee on any (non-Apple) platform they want.

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Devil

Re: Google buys Microsoft

Ummm, no. The market cap on both companies is almost identical. Now a MERGER between the two might be possible, but only if Steve Balmer is forced to retire the day before any such union takes place.

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Linux

Re: Google buys Microsoft

Well, they already use the same search engine:

http://googleblog.blogspot.co.uk/2011/02/microsofts-bing-uses-google-search.html

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Google buys Microsoft

Bob, as you well know that was a rather shameful gaming of the Bing toolbar to make it look like Bing used google. This is not the case, Bing toolbar looks at sites you visit and gives ms the URLs.

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Re: Google buys Microsoft

"Well, they already use the same search engine:"

You've posted that before and been corrected before, so at this point it is actual dishonesty to continue claiming that.

For anyone curious, someone turned on the feature in Internet Explorer that submits search history back to Microsoft in order to help improve their search results. They then generated a completely random string that occured nowhere on the Internet and searched for it in Google and clicked on some arbitrary random site in order to create an association between that random string and the site. Their action - as they well knew - was then submitted back to MS as per the settings they had chosen, creating a situation in which the only possible information usable for telling what sites that random string was associated with, was their own input that they had sent to MS. Then they searched on Bing which could only find the match for the string that they themselves had submitted and unsurprisingly, it found the site.

It's a low trick to represent that as the blog does. Bob's post above makes it sound like Bing is copying search results from Google. Actually, someone just created a very contrived situation and MS got the association not from Google, but from the user's action as per that users voluntary setting to send their choices back to MS.

I do wish Bob would stop accompanying every post of his with Tux. Not all of us Linux users are slathering zealots who will distort any fact in order to misrepresent "enemies". But apparently any FUD is ethical if its targetted at someone Bob doesn't like.

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Linux

Re: Google buys Microsoft

"You've posted that before and been corrected before, so at this point it is actual dishonesty to continue claiming that."

Yet the site has been up since Feb 1, 2011. Are you as vociferous in pointing out to Google this travesty, or are you restricted to merely shooting messengers? I have posted it before, and will do so again, because despite your hilarious squirming trying to excuse your masters being caught red handed, anyone even getting to the second sentence has all they need to know: "However you define copying, the bottom line is, these Bing results came directly from Google."

Jesus, and as if that's not enough we've now got to think about avs when we post let the self appointed fucking icon police get the hump.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Google buys Microsoft

Bob, you are wrong and you have been told that you are wrong on many occasions before, with detailed explanations.

As a heavy linux user (I do also use other OSes), I'd just like to say: Shut up, because other people will think I'm like you.

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Re: Google buys Microsoft

"Yet the site has been up since Feb 1, 2011. Are you as vociferous in pointing out to Google this travesty, or are you restricted to merely shooting messengers?"

I'm not sure how long the site has been up is relevant, other than as an example of how old this is and how long you've been repeating it. I'm also unclear on your logic which seems to be that if someone said something incorrect and another person knowingly keeps spreading that incorrectness because it suits their bias, that no-one has a right to criticise the person knowingly repeating it. There are no comments allowed on that blog post you linked to, otherwise I would happily comment on it pointing out the flaws. You could ask them to allow people to comment if you want... :)

"hilarious squirming trying to excuse your masters"

I don't work for MS and never have. I think some telecoms software I wrote back in 2001/2 was sold to them (amongst many other clients), but it was on HP Unix 11 platform so I hope that's excusable. ;) Trying to imply that someone is a shill because you don't like what they say is a low thing to do.

"anyone even getting to the second sentence has all they need to know"

Well for anyone who fancies reading more, I was happy to provide some greater information than you did. You say "the bottom line is, these Bing results came directly from Google". No, they came from a team of twenty people (according to your link) who submitted the data from their own computers repeatedly and then found after a few weeks of deliberately associating a random string with a given page and repeatedly submitting that association to MS according to voluntary settings they had enabled, that the association stated to show up in Bing. So as you can see, sometimes it is worth reading further than the second sentence. ;)

"Jesus, and as if that's not enough we've now got to think about avs when we post let the self appointed fucking icon police get the hump."

Well it makes me feel a bit like most Americans abroad feel when some loud and ignorant person keeps waving their flag around and making people think all Americans are like that. I've been using Linux for around sixteen years and if you want to talk about "self-appointed", I see that more in you repeatedly accompanying your misinformation and FUD with a Linux symbol as you obviously want to be seen as representing Linux. It's disappointing.

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Re: Google buys Microsoft

You don't half talk a lot of bollocks sometimes Bob.

Some of us remember the Bing non-story. Why not stick to being rude about MS for stuff they actually have done wrong, of which we all know there's plenty. Although it would be a lot less boring if you were also nice to them about the stuff they've actually got right.

However, trotting out old lies, then endlessly repeating them is just plain annoying.

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Re: Google buys Microsoft

That would create a disaster. Google and Microsoft doesn't mix.

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itunes on Windows

A good tablet (hopefully from Nokia) that also speaks to your computer, your phone etc, without the above mentioned pos software? I think it would sell big.

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Re: itunes on Windows

Be careful what you wish for. Microsoft might lumber us with Zune.

I though iTunes was bad, until I got a Win Pho 7 phone. Which is managed through Zune, which turns out to be horrible. I read that the Zune players were actually quite good, so I'm now blaming the software (rather than the marketing) for their demise. It's slow, hard to use, has a weird menu structure where you can't find anything, and keeps changing the format of the window you're looking at when you press a button. Did I mention it's slow?

iTunes is dull, slow and buggy. But at least the interface is boring, so you can work out what's going on. Zune is no more customisable either, so doesn't even have that advantage. Bleurgh!

Anyway, I'd imagine full-fat tablet Windows 8 will be self-managing. But the ARM version (WinRT) might be managed like the phones are, where all software updates come through Zune. Even though I'd assume it has an accessible file system, so you don't need Zune to get content onto it.

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Re: itunes on Windows

"Even though I'd assume it has an accessible file system, so you don't need Zune to get content onto it."

Don't be too sure about that... remember, M$ is now hell bent on trying to be locked down control freaks like Apple without regard if it kills them.

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Coat

My word!

Give that analyst the "stating the bleeding obvious" award. No point looking for any competitors.

How do I get his job?

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Everyone is just guessing about the size of the tablet market and who owns it

I saw another analyst firm today that announced that tablets would be outselling laptops by next fall (better crank up the tablet production lines if that's gonna come true)

The expectation is that Android will take share from Apple due to price just like it did in the smartphone market, but a lot depends on the pricing of the Android options, what Microsoft does with its pricing since nothing at all has yet been announced, whether Apple introduces a smaller iPad and if so what its price is, whether they keep iPad 2 around as a $299 option next spring like they keep two old iPhone generations around, etc.

I don't know why anyone pays these market research firms anything, two years ago just after the first iPad had been released, none of them thought tablets would amount to much of anything in the market. Three years ago they had netbooks taking over from laptops in a few years. They just look at current trends and extrapolate them to the future. Any of us could do that, if they aren't providing analysis better than what you and I can do with graph paper they have no value. If they told us how quickly the tablet market would grow before Apple even introduced the iPad, or told us netbooks would flop during the peak of their hype, then they'd be earning their fees.

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Re: Everyone is just guessing about the size of the tablet market and who owns it

"I don't know why anyone pays these market research firms anything, two years ago just after the first iPad had been released, none of them thought tablets would amount to much of anything in the market."

That's a bit unfair. I remember when the iPad came out, a bunch of the analysts were saying that we'd be up to 50-60 million tablet sales by 2012, and I thought they were bonkers. I think they turned out to be about right.

I don't know if they just guessed, or if they have lots of focus groups and surveys going on. My feeling was that there was a limited tablet market. And I got this from being a Tablet PC owner, and then getting the iPad 1. Many people were impressed and loved playing with them, but almost none of them could think of a reason why they'd want to buy one.

Then again, a stopped clock is right twice a day...

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Windows 8 to grab iPad market share wrested back from Android

Windows 8 to grab iPad market share wrested back from Android

goes along with other classic one liners

the world is flat,

moon is made of cheese

if you sail over the horizon you fall off the edge of the world

just about sums up what i think of M$'s chances

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Pricing, pricing, pricing

Win8RT won't make much of an impression if it's priced to compete with the iPad - the people who will pay $600 for a tablet have already bought an iPad.

Win8RT can't compete on price with the 7" Nexus7 and FireHD (the Surface RT is supposed to have a 10.6" screen).

Unless Microsoft has managed to keep a 7" SurfaceRT under wraps, the 10.6" version is going to have to ship for $300 to make any headway, and it's not clear that it can be built for that price. And unless it has some really killer integration with the XBox, I'm not sure that it will have much mass appeal anyway.

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Re: Pricing, pricing, pricing

"Win8RT won't make much of an impression if it's priced to compete with the iPad - the people who will pay $600 for a tablet have already bought an iPad."

If that's true, then it doesn't look very hopeful for sales of the next iPad.

WinRT devices such as the Surface RT are feature comparable with the iPad (actually, they have greater connectivity and an integrated keyboard, so it's actually more). So there's no good reason why it should not be priced to compete with the iPad save that I think tablet and hybrid prices will be coming down now all around anyway.

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Meh

Re: Pricing, pricing, pricing

Sorry h4rm0ny, but I will have to ultimately disagree with you there. If M$ do go toe to toe with the iPad, how will it offer anything extra? Apart from Office 2013, it will have nothing extra to offer. It's not even going to include any sort of media player from the offset. So how on earth are Microsoft going to reach equivalent sales if it doesn't appeal to the consumer market? Apple have had a couple of years to establish a trust with the business market by providing tools to either deploy them safely/securely on a mass scale or expand the development platform for businesses to take advantage of the OS by buying apps in mass or installing custom apps not for sale.

No business exec is going to drop their iPads instantly for something else. Where Apple works on developing loyality with their customers, M$ have an awful long way to go to to even dent market share. Even for the keyboard and extra connectivity (very debatable now), they're fads that should not belong to the tablet product. As accessories yes, as part of the product itself; no.

This mixed stratedgy from M$ is certainly messy and could blow up their desktop sales in their face (as business will not adopt it with a weird metro interface to deal with) and flush money down the drain if hardware makers go back to Android as their primary tablet OS.

The short/medium term prediction here is that Apple will keep accelerating and keep their mobile / desktop OSes seperate understanding there needs to be a divide until the correct tech is available / cost effective. Hybrid tablets/Win 8 are just a flash in the pan IMHO.

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Re: Pricing, pricing, pricing

The way Apple and Microsoft sell to corporate users is completely different. Microsoft sells to the corporation, who then distribute the hardware using MS software to all their employees.

Apple sells to individuals, some of whom work for corporations. When enough individuals in a corporation (or a few higher ups with a lot of pull) get Apple products and want to them use them for corporate purposes, they pressure the IT department to support them. You know, the BYOD (bring your own device) thing. The IT departments hate this, so Microsoft is hoping by offering a tablet they can get the IT department to tell everyone that if they want to use a tablet they have to use a Microsoft one, and not Apple or Android.

I think you're right that it's too late though, Apple has sold way too many tablets to corporate users that who won't be willing to give it up just to switch to a corporate supplied (and controlled) Surface tablet.

Microsoft isn't addressing consumer needs because they view keeping control of their corporate market as job #1. If you let Apple and Android tablets gain a foothold, you break the Microsoft corporate ecosystem they've cultivated over the past two decades from Office and OS software on PCs to OS, SQL and Exchange software on servers.

If corporate IT departments start buying into BYOD (which is attractive to CIOs because when people Bring their Own Device, CIOs save money and can provide a lower level of support for it) then it isn't far to travel for employees to bring in MacBook Air and Chrome laptops, and at that point the argument for using Exchange and Windows Server as opposed to cheaper Linux alternatives or using MS Office instead of LibreOffice or Google Apps begins to break down. If that happens, Microsoft would become much smaller than they are today, and would have Ballmer's total lack of vision to blame.

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Is it just me?

But does this make sense, in any shape or form?

Windows 8 to grab iPad market share wrested back from Android..

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Anonymous Coward

The psychic network ..

This read like the psychic network, unattributable statements introduced to confirm some other unprovable statements ...

"Windows 8 will dent Apple's dominance of the tablet market, but it's biggest impact will be to hold Android's growth back"

`Canalys reckons Android can increase its market share, but only if "vendors make radical improvements to the overall user experience"'

"Indeed, because of what Amazon has done, Canalys thinks the online retail giant will be Apple's key competitor".

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Anonymous Coward

"vendors make radical improvements to the overall user experience". What has iOS got that droid hasn't? (and we are talking about experience and not an invitation for a girly free for all ladies).

iOS is awefull. Poorly designed and looks to make you vomit.

It's not business ready at all and you have to work around its numerous limitations.

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Anonymous Coward

"What has iOS got that droid hasn't?"

A working spell checker judging by the majority of your inane posts.

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