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back to article Has Nokia bottomed out? El Reg drills into the detail

When a company is in crisis, it wants to tell the world that it’s still got oodles of cash and is jolly busy putting things right. This is true even if you're Europe’s biggest technology company - right, Nokia? The phone firm got the bad news out of the way first in its financial results this week. The company is €675m poorer …

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Meh

Q3 2012 will be the mariana trench for nokia

But from Q4 2012 the grand revival will start !

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Q3 2012 will be the mariana trench for nokia

In the psychedelic lalaland of Microsoft astroturfers, where everybody lusts after Metro live tiles, certainly Microsoft/Nokia will get a 'grand revival'.

In reality, however, it's more likely that Nokia will be bought by Microsoft for pennies. And Microsoft continues to throw money and lose money in the smartphone/tablet business.

Please wake up, you delusional Microsoft shills.

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Anonymous Coward

Have they bottomed out?

Have they dumped the lame dog Windows Phone yet? If not, then no, they haven't bottomed out yet...

No amount of spinning SHIPPED numbers of Lumias (when all their other presentations referred to SOLD numbers) can spin the fact that it's flopped REALLY badly, and 4m shipped means 1.5m sold....

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Thumb Down

"and 4m shipped means 1.5m sold...."

I look forward in eager anticipation to you posting the link that provides explicit confirmation of that assertion. Unless of course it was just more AC-protected FUD, hmm?

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Go

Re: Have they bottomed out?

Ha ha this AC's comment smells like Barry Shitpeas wearning PJs!

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FAIL

Re: "and 4m shipped means 1.5m sold...."

Yeah, come on AC, put your figures where you FUD is - we're all dying to know where you get your insider information.

What's that? You're just trolling? Shirley not.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: "and 4m shipped means 1.5m sold...."

Clearly I can't, nobody can. If they could it would bring down Nokia for good.

HOWEVER, anecdotal evidence suggests that stockrooms are crammed with unsold Lumias, and I do know of massive numbers of handsets given away to lots of phone shifters like CarphoneWarehouse and Phones4U, as staff sweeteners.

When Nokia talk of sold numbers through the entire presentation, but then use shipped when it comes with Windows 8, it's not hard to disbelieve the anecdotal evidence that the real numbers are 30% of what the headlines say.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Have they bottomed out?

Nothing wrong with WP. Better having three main platforms to choose from than just a choice of iOS or Android.

I quite fancy a WP8 handset, but the main issue I have is putting down £400-500 on a SIM free handset only to hate it.

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Headmaster

Re: "and 4m shipped means 1.5m sold...."

Yes, clearly he is just trolling. The amazing thing is that he is so intellectually challenged that he thought nobody would notice and that it would be effective. Strange, hmm?

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Re: Have they bottomed out?

"I quite fancy a WP8 handset, but the main issue I have is putting down £400-500 on a SIM free handset only to hate it."

Hopefully there will be some lower-cost models. I paid £160 for the Lumia 710 and the only real difference between that and the more expensive 800 ones is a lower-quality camera and less storage space. I care about neither on a phone, so bargain for me. Windows Phone 8 devices are being made by several manufacturers, not just Nokia. So there should be some lower-end models.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Have they bottomed out?

> Nothing wrong with WP. Better having three main platforms to choose from than just a choice of iOS or Android.

Frankly, the kind of shill I hate the most is that which casually tosses off the plain lie that WP is the 'third main platform', in the hope that repeating it over and over again will make people believe it.

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@AC 20th July 19.19 Re: "anecdotal evidence suggests"

Anecdotal "evidence"? Are you serious? You mean a man down the pub told you? Or you are guessing because that view happens to suit what you want to post anyway? Anecdotal evidence my arse - FUD pure and simple.

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Headmaster

Re: @AC 20th July 19.19 "anecdotal evidence suggests"

I see that someone did not like my point. I pose one last question in this context. How many of you would be prepared on a thread like this to accept anecdotal "evidence" that favoured Nokia or most particularly Microsoft? You wouldn't, would you? In fact anyone who tried to post anything like that would get absolutely hosed, would he not?

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Headmaster

Actually Andrew I agree. That is a reasonable and realistic...........

................assessment of the current situation. The howlers will not like it of course because the implication is that Nokia might prosper under certain circumstances. That is the last thing they want to hear and you can expect the usual "howling and fudding" in response to what you have posted.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Actually Andrew I agree. That is a reasonable and realistic...........

Never mind prospering - there's only one circumstance under which Nokia can actually survive.

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Re: Actually Andrew I agree. That is a reasonable and realistic...........

Where is the room for "distinctiveness" on Windows 8 phones? Nokia needs to be doing more to convince the market that it plans on being more than just Microsoft's hardware division.

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"an overall cash drain of €514 for the quarter"

That doesn't seem bad at all. Even in my current impoverished state I could write a cheque for that.

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Re: "an overall cash drain of €514 for the quarter"

Awww, you fixed the typo. Now I just look silly.

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Holmes

Meego Write Down - Hardly a Surprise!

"It will write down €220m worth of components which can’t now be sold in phones. Since this includes Lumia, Symbian and Meego handsets, we can’t infer that Nokia had overestimated the appeal of Windows. Not without more information."

Now there's a surprise (having to write down components due to go into Meego phones)!

Since it only marketed the devices in Timbuktu and the dark side of the moon, it's hardly surprising Nokia has components left over. After all, Meego outselling Win7 would have been pretty embarrassing for Elop. Far better to effectively strangle it at birth, regardless of how good it was.

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Holmes

Re: Meego Write Down - Hardly a Surprise!

Or how costly the funeral (the parts write down).

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Meego Write Down - Hardly a Surprise!

They should lock Elop in a room with the parts and make him eat them.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Meego Write Down - Hardly a Surprise!

Most of the components would be for the Lumia as sales never never met the expectations of Nokia. Nokia has also refused to say how many N9's (MeeGo) were sold in Q4 2011 but did say:

"The increase in our Smart Devices volumes in the fourth quarter 2011 was primarily driven by the broader availability throughout the quarter of the Nokia N9 and the shipments during the quarter of the Nokia Lumia 800 and 710 in selected markets, as well as increased seasonal demand for our devices” Nokia."

With Lumia sales not moving all that much, the N9 was substantial. Imagine if Nokia actually marketed it. By keeping the numbers silent, Elop gets to save face.

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Alert

But they have nothing else

Having killed Meego after it shipped, then having killed Meltimi after it was mostly done, Nokia have no OS of their own for cheap devices. Rumor has it that they will use the Android kernel, for some kind of html phone, but thats going to take a long time to come, and with WP doing so poorly they don't have time.

They need to get rid of Ellop, as he has proven he just doesn't understand the market. He keeps killing programs - sighting they are to costly, but then he always find's money to start new ones. - never time to do it right but always time to do it over.

Fnding a Steve Job's like CEO maybe next to impossible, but Nokia needs to get somebody that somewhat resembles Jobs, somebody who can articulate and describe what a product can and should be (lead from the front not from behind) . Ellop is a sales guy, and as Job's said many times over - sales guys make ineffective leaders.

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WTF?

Re: But they have nothing else

"Rumor has it that they will use the Android kernel, for some kind of html phone"

Though I rarely indulge in Internet speak;

"MASSIVE LULZ."

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Re: But they have nothing else

Tizen is the alternative. It seems as if many OEMs are getting worried about their future income as the future of Android is fully under the control of Google.

Samsung is a big contributor to the Tizen OS. It doesn't look too bad actually, a lot better than Meego.

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FAIL

Re: But they have nothing else

Eflop is a hatchet man, nothing more and nothing less

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Re: But they have nothing else

"Rumor has it that they will use the Android kernel, for some kind of html phone, but thats going to take a long time to come"

They need to create another platform in order to kill it. Creating platforms, then killing them, is the only thing Nokia are good at.

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Windows

Re: But they have nothing else

"Elop is a sales guy" (I'll at least do him the courtesy of spelling his name correctly). Many of the previous MD's I've served under were 'sales guys'. They were good, they knew their onions.

I expect that's why I, as a 'sales guy' progressed to General Manager of Boston Systems Office, UK. But, hell, what do I know....

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Thumb Down

Re: But they have nothing else

You missed the point, it's not that a "sales guy" cannot be the MD, it's that the companies tend to go to crap when they are. Everybody gets blamed except the culprit and the end result is a cheap sale of the assets to someone smarter, while the "sales guy" jumps ship as he has seen the forecasts. I've worked for "sales guys" too.

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Silver badge

If the pureview was available on contract I would have jumped on it.

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Anonymous Coward

Sad

What's really sad is that there are a lot of people who will be disappointed if Nokia survive and especially so if they thrive because they hate Microsoft so much they think Nokia failing would somehow be a just punishment.

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FAIL

Nokia is toast. And Microsoft will be in danger too with the awful MetroUI

Windows8 with MetroUI is going to be a huge failure. Way worse than Vista for Microsoft.

Nokia sold just a few millions smartphones. Its market share didn't increase at all. People don't want the MetroUI. WindowsPhone7.x as well as upcoming WindowsPhone8 are a shame due to MetroUI.

Nokia once ad the perfect OS with Symbian and the excellent QT APIs. But they trashed everything and wasted money and stole money from investors. What a fraud. What a shame.

MetroUI is a failure. And by forcing MetroUI on desktops and servers Microsoft is going to be in some serious trouble pretty soon. No matter if they sell Windows8 at $10.00 trying to mimic Apple low priced OSX updates.

No one that would want to keep using their PCs would waste even a few bucks on the awful Windows8 MetroUI.

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Re: Nokia is toast. And Microsoft will be in danger too with the awful MetroUI

Do you have a WP7 phone? I do. Metro is a great design - that's part of the irony of this situation. The product sells itself to people who actually try it. But WP7 sales are likely to flatline now that MS has said there will be no upgrade to WP8. MS obviously has some new design people, shackled to the same old bean counters.

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Anonymous Coward

PureView

{{{It wouldn’t harm Nokia if it could squeeze in the 41MP sensor found on the PureView into its Windows portfolio soon.}}}

The Symbian PureView (808) will still outsell any WP8 variant of it.

Please compare Nokia N9 sales with Lumia 800's.

It's not the hardware. It's the software (Windows Phone OS) which no one is caring about.

Everyone except Ballmer/Elop/the most hardcore MSFT astroturfers understands this.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: PureView

Personally, I left Nokia after about fifteen years of them being my only phone supplier. I left partly because their hardware wasn't all that (The express music 5800 was the final straw.) but mainly because Symbian was flakey, bad a syncing, crashy, obviously old and dated.

Were I to go back to Nokia it would be because they have sorted out their hardware and I quite like the WP Operating system. Sure it's not as configurable as Android, or got as many apps as iOS, but it's got enough apps, it's stable, slick, syncs with everything you can shake a stick at and I'm not that fussed about editing the hosts file of a telephone, I have my linux laptop for that.

Also, why is it that anyone who says anything positive about MS has to be a shill or astroturfer?

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translation

"Alas, and this may be a consequence of its European roots, costs have not (yet) been cut to reflect the lower revenues."

Translation into plain English: 'not being American, Nokia has not yet fired everyone below middle management level as part of its 'growth strategy'.'

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Anonymous Coward

In the bottomless pit...

... there is no bottoming out.

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This post has been deleted by a moderator

Anonymous Coward

Re: winFAIL

All Nokia can possibly become with Android is another also ran. With WP they at least have the ability to become the de facto supplier of phones for that OS.

Personally I want there to be more than two OSes in the smartphone market.

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Re: winFAIL

" All Nokia can possibly become with Android is another also ran."

I see Samsung has a number of Android phones (typing this on a note), apart from their own OS. I wouldn't class them as an also-ran. Even if you only look at it financially, their phones division is doing very nicely, despite the fighting with their main competitor.

I don't think Nokias problem is their OS, so much as them having 10 year plans that seem to reverse every year.

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FAIL

Re: winFAIL

Ah yes, it is entertaining. The great redmond messiah, Windows Phone 7, hailed by every shill on the 'webs as the best thing ever for developers and users, even well before release , is now subject to revision. Of course Win phone 7 was only the stepping stone to the real treat, Win Phone 8! Of course, it was never meant to succeed for nokia, who only pinned their smartphone portfolio on it for a laugh!

No really, 8 is going to revolutionise everything!

It would be funnier if it hadn't exposed to me jsut how many paid interests there are commenting on tech sites to try to 'shape the conversation'.

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Boffin

My lecture on options and the results

Some time ago here on El Reg I gave a minor lecture on the "long put option" using Nokia as an example case. The post is here: http://forums.theregister.co.uk/post/1376189

Using that example case if you bought the Put option given there three months ago for $0.62 and sold it today for $1.62 you would be 2.6x ahead for that period and well advised to get out no matter what you thought the future might bring. Or at least you might take your original investment out plus whatever you think is a reasonable premium and let the rest ride Nokia to $0.01. There is some big risk there though because eventually Nokia might fall to a point where they needs must be bought out, and at least the price will bounce. If they're bought out and close before your option date your options are worth nothing because the option to sell shares that don't exist is worth nothing.

Claim a win. Take your base and the profits you want out now. Leave a little of your paper profits in just in case it goes to zero and you jackpot.

If you're well ahead take some winnings off the table - or take them all off the table and find a new company that's being phenomenally stupid. There always is one. Under $3 per share units are risky business, and this one gave all it's worth already, I think.

Again:This is all gambling - don't bet more than you can afford to lose. I'm not an investment advisor and I'm definitely not yours. The above information is for entertainment value only, and should not be taken as a recommendation for any course of action. It may be inaccurate, and your mileage may vary.

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Stop

Don't forget Skype!

"So the carriers truly hate Skype. Dont' take my word for it, Elop himself told the Nokia shareholders that yes, Skype is severely disliked by operators/carriers and by some to that extreme degree they have refused to sell any current Microsoft Windows based smarphones - which don't even have Skype preinstalled. This not because of Skype but because Microsoft now owns Skype. It does not matter whether you think this is fair, or illogical, or even you believe it is true. Stephen Elop, the CEO of Nokia, tells the Nokia shareholder meeting, he formally talks as Nokia CEO to the owners of Nokia, and this is on video and in transcript - that the reason carriers hate Windows Phone smartphones is because Microsoft now owns Skype. Not because you and I use Skype on some phone on Android or whatever. Elop says, the reason carriers hate Windows Phone smartphones is because Microsoft now owns Skype - and Elop tells us some have gone as far to stop selling any Windows smarpthones not just Lumias. Go watch the video!"

From

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/07/the-sun-tzu-of-nokisoftian-microkia-mirror-mirror-on-the-wall-whose-the-baddest-of-them-all-waterloo.html

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FAIL

Why should WP8 be any more successful?

OK, you've got a point that the WP7 Lumia's were just simple branded reference designs, but that's how Microsoft has always pushed Windows Mobile/Phone - it specs out the HW, provides the software and the OEM just gets to choose color theme and finish for the casing. I've not seen anything that says WP8 will be pushed any different, so unless Nokia has done a deal that allows them far greater flexibility in the finished product then why would WP8 work out any better than WP7?

And if they were allowed that flexibility, is that really going to save them - by their own admission they weren't so hot at adding in customization layers onto their bought in platforms - and even if they wanted do, do they actually have any developers left to do this? Unless Elop is a l33t coder and is keen on pushing his own custom ROMZ...

And then there's the question of whether or not people actually want a Windows Phone. There's over a decade of evidence that suggests not. Have they figured out why yet? I doubt it.

Thinking about it, it may be simply be that the thing that holds Windows Mobile/Phone back is the association with Desktop Windows - I'd bet that all of the potential customers for a Windows Phone will have had experience of a Windows PC. If they are coming from having a pre-WP7 Nokia, they may well be used to having a pretty solid phone, and would probably be thinking "Do I really want the same experience on my phone as I have on my PC?"

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Unhappy

Times have changed

Back in the 1990s if anyone had asked me for a mobile phone recommendation I would always give the same answer: just buy a Nokia. It didn't really matter which one, they were all good - they had the best hardware and the best interface.

These days it's no exaggeration to say that Nokia is at the very bottom of the list. In fact I now say make absolutely sure you don't buy a Nokia. Just get an iPhone or Android phone depending on budget.

It's genuinely sad.

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Facepalm

Elop Trojan

I see the Elop Trojan is working to perfection. Not long now until Microsoft can buy Nokia + its years of accrued patents for a bargain-basement price.

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Anonymous Coward

The usual comment mess

I quite enjoy reading the comments on these Nokia stories. You lot remind me of the shrill idiots proclaiming the inevitable and probably immediate death of McDonalds after Super Size Me. A couple of salads on the menu and suddenly disaster was just a blip.

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