back to article iPhone 5 poised to trounce Android, devastate BlackBerry?

A new report on smartphone buying plans provides excellent news for Apple, so-so news for Android-handset manufacturers, and downright lousy news for RIM. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster's annual smartphone purchasing survey – which was conducted by querying 400 people in Minnesota, New York, and California, and in China and …

COMMENTS

This topic is closed for new posts.

Page:

Silver badge
Alien

If this is bad news for RIM then what about MicroNokia?

I fully expect that there will be much gnashing of teeth and even throwing of chairs in Redmond when they read this.

Then there will be some really nasty phone calls to Gartner who's recent survey predicted that Windows Phone would rule the world in no time flat.

18
1

Re: If this is bad news for RIM then what about MicroNokia?

Microsoft will subsidise and paint happy rainbows on the losses until they get 15% penetration, then claim victory. Oh, hey Bing, what up?

8
0
Silver badge

Re: If this is bad news for RIM then what about MicroNokia?

Someone had better also make those phone calls to the entirety of the media who claimed that Apple would rule the world in no time flat. I'm still waiting. Hell, wake me up when Iphone finally overtakes the now-deprecated Symbian in installed userbase.

(Really though - the fact that this ignores the number two phone maker - second to Samsung, not Apple - just makes this "survey" even more dubious. I suspect it's yet another case of "let's publicise the one stat that makes Apple look best".)

1
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: If this is bad news for RIM then what about MicroNokia?

They can try but it's expensive spending almost $500 in marketing to sell every Nokia top-end phone.

0
0
Anonymous Coward

Ah Grasshopper

Ah Grasshopper, there are many certainties in life.

Master I do not understand?

Grasshopper, these certainties are,

We think, we breath and we all die....

Yes Master.

But the greatest certainty Grasshopper....

I'm sorry Master I do not know.

The greatest certainty Grasshopper, is that Apple will trounce all other with the introduction of the '5'!

0
1
WTF?

Scale drawings of screens

.... er .... what?!?

Here's a rectangle. Here's another rectangle, slightly larger. Which is better...?

I don't get that question at all....

11
1
Silver badge

Re: Scale drawings of screens

all repondents preferred the smaller display.

or

all repondents thought the Razr was ugly.

You have to create images of the same phone with different size screens if you want to know what screen size they like.

9
0
Silver badge

Re: Scale drawings of screens

Preferences of scale drawings of DIFFERENT phones can be related to the design as much as to the size, this question is of limited use. Having said that, I've tried the Samsung G S3 and HTY One X, 4.7-4.8" screens and they're really a handful, not to mention that they won't fit comfortably into quite a few pockets. 3.5" is perfect for for girl-sized hands and is pretty OK for most people.

It also depends on App usage. If I'm mostly using the thing as a phone, if I'm going to be streaming video or a picture slideshow to the nearest TV instead of using the native screen, 3.5" is perfectly adequate. If I'm watching videos or playing games directly on the screen a 4.7" screen will work better

Personally I think 4.0-4.3" is right for me (light internet / mail use + some apps), if I want to watch movies or play games on the go I'll get myself a tablet. Of course everyone is going to have their own preference on form factor, it has nothing to do with a survey on phone OS

1
2
Anonymous Coward

Re: Scale drawings of screens

The issue is not everyone wants BIG phone.

0
0
Silver badge

Re: Scale drawings of screens

Ah, your one anecdotal opinion trumps tens of millions of people buying 4.5"+ Android phones - more than anything from Apple - and the market research that Samsung would surely have done. Personally I have no trouble with my Galaxy Nexus, and the S3 looks fine too (a larger LCD, but the phone itself is barely any bigger).

Not that this is an argument against Android, since there are smaller Android phones too, including in the 4-4.3" range.

"if I want to watch movies or play games on the go I'll get myself a tablet."

I have a tablet. It's my 4.6" Galaxy Nexus, that's also my phone.

And if all you want is a phone to use as a phone, then pick up a dirt cheap low end Android or S40 device, or even a really cheap dumb phone. Why pay for the most expensive phone on the market, just for a tiny 3.5" screen that you are only using as a phone.

2
1

@Mark

>tens of millions of people buying 4.5"+ Android phones

Source? I know Android phones are outselling iPhones, but then that's what you would expect to happen in normal market conditions, there simply aren't enough options in the Apple range to cover all the bases.

What I want to know is where the evidence is that so many people are buying 4.5"+ screen phones, last I read something like 30 million had shipped, but as we all know "shipped" is quite different from "sold". And that's still only about 10% of the 300 million smartphones sold in the first quarter of 2012.

0
2
Anonymous Coward

Re: @Mark

Yes, we know... Nobody buys Android phones. Large chains and telecoms just order millions of them to store in their warehouses, because that's the kind of business sense that made them large chains and telecoms in the first place.

0
0
Silver badge
Facepalm

Re: Scale drawings of screens

"your one anecdotal opinion trumps tens of millions of people " wtf??

I don't know where you got 'trumps' from, I nowhere said that my opinion is better than anyone else's. I clearly state that my opinion is my opinion and everyone is entitled to their own. You seem to have taken my comment as somehow being pro-apple, when it was nothing of the sort, in fact I also clearly specify that I'm commenting on form factor, not OS

0
0
JDB
Stop

small sample

I live on the border of Minnesota and that's a very heavily skewed iPhone state. I'm guessing California is, too (just a guess). That and the EXTREMELY small sample size make these number very suspect to me. I have no doubt the iPhone 5 will sell really well - I just wouldn't base any actual number expectations on a survey like that.

39
1
Silver badge

Re: small sample

Who paid for the survey?

How did they select the people. People in a high end shopping mall, with an apple store? It's easy to warp the results if you know what you (or your customer) wants.

20
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: small sample

And China and Korea could be skewed because its owning an iPhone is probably seen as a status symbol... if you live in the UK and they give you a choice of a "home" manufactured car (Honda, Toyota) or something seen as having status (Ferrari, Porche) then what are you going to say?

7
1
Silver badge

Re: small sample

I was thinking the same thing JDB. Europe tends to be more skewed towards Android than the iPhone when it comes to smartphone preferences. It's rather telling that this survey avoided the continent completely.

14
1

Re: small sample

Exactly.

I Just did a quick survey amongst 4 people ANDROID IS TROUNCING APPLE! - yes we all own androids and yes, this survey was just as meaningless.

17
2
FAIL

Re: small sample

"400 people in Minnesota, New York, and California, and in China and Korea"

80 people per area?!?!? That must have taken 5 researchers a little over a lunch hour to do, wonder where the very briefly set up camp?

Not to mention peepz are supposedly ready to hand over cash for an iPride 5 without even having seen any kind of spec? Wow "owned" is the only word that comes to mind

9
0
Stop

Re: small sample

Who did you think paid for the survey?

You can also bet they were asked to survey very close to an Apple store to get the required outcome...

It's unfortunate there are still too many idiots in the world this believe these sorts of surveys. They are NEVER impartial and ALWAYS have a hidden agenda.

2
4

Re: small sample

Have a look at the first statistic list "What is your current phone?", it says 52% iPhone.

Seeing as the iPhone only holds around 20% marketshare, it's obvious that they went for a set of customers that were heavily biased towards the iPhone from this question alone. This, coupled with the small sample size suggests the survey is meaningless.

If it was a genuinely balanced survey you could guarantee that within a small range of discrepency that very first number would be representative of the iPhone's marketshare, as it's inflated by over 200% of the real figure, then you can't surmise anything of statistical value from this survey.

4
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: small sample

400 is not an especially small sample size - of course a larger one is better (as in more accurate) but quite often surveys are still accurate to a few percent either way with even smaller samples.

0
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: small sample

That 20% claim you make is 'worldwide' - if you asked people in any major US city the percentage is likely to be much higher than the world-average.

0
0
Silver badge

Re: small sample

Yes - and just to add to this, the problem isn't so much with sample size, but whether it's random. 400 would be more than enough if it was truly a worldwide random sample, with no bias on those responding. But we know it wasn't - the fact that it was only a handful of cities.

Consider how Iphone users always say how they've just bought an Iphone, and tell you they've got one every single day. It stands to reason that you're going to get far more people claiming they're next phone will be an Iphone - the majority of people who go on to buy from more popular companies like Samsung and Nokia care less about advertising the fact.

I also find it funny that this matters anyway - if market share is important to us consumers, then why aren't the media slagging off Apple all these years, for never having been number one, and instead praising the number one platforms Symbian and now Android? No - as always, the media twists things so a statistic is only important if it makes Apple looks best.

0
0
Silver badge

Re: small sample

Yes that's exactly the point he was making - the survey was biased and not reflective of worldwide share, whether geographically, or otherwise.

And if you're trying to say this at least means that Iphone 5 will do well in the US - well, 52% is still too high, as Android leads in the US alone.

2
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: small sample

>400 is not an especially small sample size

Yes it is. It's laughable.

If you were sampling in one shopping centre on a weekday lunchtime, it'd be adequate. These people were sampling 'worldwide'.

Apple^H^H^H^H^HWhoever paid for this survey should ask for their money back.

1
1
Anonymous Coward

@ Field Marshal blah blah

When are people going to realise that whatever technique they are using that produces ^H^H does NOT render as strikethrough in the el Reg forums?

0
2
Anonymous Coward

Re: small sample

Agree. I bumped into an Italian phone shop dude on a flight once, apparently Android has been king of the hill for some time there.

0
0
Headmaster

Re: @ Field Marshal blah blah

Welllll.... when I want to put ^H on the screen I usually type <shift-6><shift-h>

Also, its a backspace, not strikethrough.

^H is also used humorously for epanorthosis by boring old farts^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H computer literates, denoting the deletion of a pretended blunder you brainless twat^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H valued member of the forums.

2
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: small sample

I just performed my own small 4 people office survey.

Over the past 6 months it's gone from 1 Android, 2 Blackberry and a Nokia to 3 Android and 1 Blackberry

We're still working on the Blackberry user who is always obstreperous... He'll probably buy an iphone just to be awkward... Although he did do that once before... and sent it back in under a week!

0
0
Happy

Re: @ Field Marshal blah blah

If you weren't using a Windows Phone, you could have cut and pasted the whole thing!

0
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: @ Field Marshal blah blah

Which would be great00000000000000000 f it worked as666666666666666666intended@@@@@@@@@@but actuall&%^%$^%y it only makes you{}{}~~{~r post REALLY HARD TO READ

0
1
Headmaster

Re: @ Field Marshal blah blah

No, this is hard to read.....

لا، هذا من الصعب أن تقرأ الامريكي ديك

2
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: small sample

> Agree. I bumped into an Italian phone shop dude on a flight once, apparently Android has been king of the hill for some time there.

Unless the hill in question happens to be Etna... then it's Nokia all the way in.

0
0
FAIL

Really?

"No matter which phone they owned – iPhone, Android, or BlackBerry – all repondents preferred the smaller display."

Except that 69 Android users preferred the bigger screen vs 35 who liked the small one...

18
1
Headmaster

In fact

I'm liking the line "no matter which phone they owned – iPhone, Android, or BlackBerry – all repondents preferred the smaller display" less every time I read it. Doesn't it imply that 100% of respondents preferred the smaller display, no matter what they owned?

In fact, I make it 55% of respondents who prefer the smaller screen. Not quite the damning indictment of larger screens.

11
3
Silver badge

Re: In fact

Just come back from South Korea and talking to a number of people there they made an interesting comment about screen size. Samsung launched the wopping big Note to its home market in winter. It promptly sold like hot cakes. But come summer people, especially blokes, are finding its too big to carry around. In winter it goes in a coat pocket. In summer its much too large to go in your trouser pocket. And apparently Korean women think that blokes with a hand bag or pouch to hold their phone don't count as men.

So when did they do this survey?

6
2
WTF?

Re: In fact

Sorry, but I have a Galaxy Note and have absolutely no problem whatsoever putting in my trouser pockets, and I'm not exactly a giant!

Who were you talking to, Smurfs? ;)

5
0
404
Bronze badge
Trollface

THAT'S RACIST!

Re: Dave Fox: "Who were you talking to, Smurfs? ;)"

So you saying Koreans are small?

;)

2
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: In fact

You have flipping big pockets - it's not a phone it's a mini tablet - way too big for most human hands / pockets.

0
0
Silver badge

Re: In fact

See YouTube videos, it fits in a pocket.

And so what - if men end up avoiding the Note, then Samsung have the S3 which fits absolutely fine in a pocket, so they're not losing sales. Not to mention that "people who carry handbags with them" is still a fairly big market, you know.

(Personally I find it mad that people are still so hung up on image that it harms their choice of technology. I suppose we should be glad that mobile phones weren't invented 100 years or more ago, otherwise they'd be categorised into "men's phones" and "women's phones". Imagine going into a phone shop, and having to restrict yourself to one part of the store - "Sorry, we don't have a Galaxy Note in the men's section, you'll have to have this phone instead"...)

0
0
Silver badge

Re: In fact

"a phone it's a mini tablet"

That makes no sense. If it's a phone, it's not a tablet by definition. Although reasonably we might refer to phones as being tablets too, that applies to all phones. I'd call 3-4" "mini"; over 5" is getting more towards mid-range.

(The idea of "tablet" meaning "big" has no basis in historical usage - any handheld device that wasn't a phone is a tablet. It's only Apple who decided to make an absurdly big tablet.)

0
0
Thumb Down

Re: In fact

A bit like the "pocket movie camera" featured by Graeme Garden in the Goodies - came with a special pair of trousers.

1
0

i plan to move from iphone to wp8.

3
12
Silver badge

I am sure that Microsoft will reward your decision with 10 free copies of Windows 8.

Being serious for a moment, the fragmentation of the Android market could work to Apple's benefit. Exactly how many basically identical Android phones does Samsung need to sell at the moment? It really does get confusing when you try to compare them. If the Winphone 8 models are sufficiently different from each other they might carge out a niche in the market. However, I do get the idea that in thei desperation to sell any old bit of tat they can just to survive, Nokia will flood the market with basically identical phones.

Apple's keep it simple with a minimal choice of models is a definite USP in a very crowded market place.

5
12
Silver badge

I've never really liked this argument about fragmentation. The IBM-esque PC market is extremely fragmented but sales of IBM PC clones far outstrip those of any other PC architecture. Fragmentation is just a consequence of commoditization and commoditization inevitably leads to higher adoption rates. MS Windows is used widely for a lot of reasons (dodgy business practices etc) but it's dominance has been helped rather than hindered by it's ability to run on everything from sub £200 white box PCs to the latest £2000 Alienware gaming rig.

I suspect Android will experience something similar. Hardware manufacturers will be in a race to the bottom, producing ever cheaper kit which will help Android become ubiquitous. However, because of Android's fragmented nature it will also run on expensive flagship phones, designed to compete with the likes of Apple at the high end of the market.

16
2
Silver badge

Hi John

I'm very interested to know you plan to move from iPhone to Win phone 8. FYI I plan to buy pizza this evening.

11
0
Silver badge

> sales of IBM PC clones far outstrip those of any other PC architecture

'IBM PC' and clones haven't been sold for decades. IBM PCs had ISA bus connectors, CGI or MDA cards. IBM PS/2s moved to MicroChannel. Since 20 years ago most desktop computers moved to PCI and derivatives.

Given that the current top 'personal computers' are iPads and Android phones then your claims seem rather strange.

> it's ability to run on everything from sub £200 white box PCs to the latest £2000 Alienware gaming rig

Which are basically the same thing, except the cost and speed, and trivial things like component layout.

In fact Windows is rather limited to what it can run on, it used to include MIPS, Alpha, and some others which have all been abandoned. While CE (and derivatives such as WP7) can run on some other CPUs these are restricted, only about 4 ARM chips out of many. Even Windows RT and WP8 will only cover 3 or 4 different SoCs.

Android runs on a version of the Linux kernel and the changes have been put into the mainstream. Linux will run on most architectures from embedded up to top SuperComputer.

1
11
Silver badge

Sorry Richard, I think you gotten too caught up on the terminology and missed the content of what I was saying. Replace 'IBM PC' with 'x86/x64 PC' in my original post. Does that make you any happier?

Since 99.9% of android phones run on ARM and until Win RT is released 99.9% of consumer Windows installations run on x86/x64 the comparison is still valid.

8
0

Fragmentation

@Fibbles

I think that the point about fragmentation in the smartphone (Android) area isn't an exact allegory for the "x86/64 / Windows" history. Here's what I think the concerns are about the issues that Android Phone faces compared to iPhone:

1. Screens sizes / resolutions etc. This isn't the same as the "x86/64" issue with a windowed environment because of course the res of the desktop doesn't matter if you're running something in a window, or even if you consider full screen running applications on the "x86/64" as back then of course we were using CRTs which would all (to an overwhelming degree) be 4:3 and run at 640x480 or 800x600, at 60Hz, and so you could write your full screen app to use one of those common ones. It's not the same on a smart phone, especially with various screen ratios, and LCDs which do have a native resolution to look their best.

2. Processing power. This is the same as the "x86/64" issue, and of course that was a nightmare at the time - having to check every single piece of software before you invested to make sure that you met every one of its requirements or it'd not install, or crash, or be dog-slow.

I'm not saying that there aren't reasons the other way, where Android Phone beats iPhone, just that these are the two main reasons that people think of, I think, when they say "fragmentation" of Android in a way that doesn't affect iPhone.

I'm also not saying that there aren't ways round these, there may be, but I'm not a programmer.

0
2

Page:

This topic is closed for new posts.

Forums