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Nokia's comeback will fail unless Microsoft pulls its finger out, according to one analyst. Ian Fogg of IHS isn't isn't optimistic, however, and recommends the Finns develop a Plan 'B' - in case Windows Phone fails to crack the Android-Apple duopoly. Fogg commends Nokia for a strong comeback product range in the shape of its …

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Anonymous Coward

On the brink?

On the brink of failure? So, their position has improved that much, huh?

If Nokia can pull out of this dive, then Dr. Hawking is going to have to re-write a great deal of our current understanding of black holes and the event horizons thereof.

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Welcome to America - the land of free speech

People still like nokia as a brand and most of the hoi polloi aren't even aware of the MS deal or winphone. They could pull out now, start making solid reliable android phones, and still flourish

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Devil

Re: On the brink?

Under any CEO other than that Eloper, Nokia could have just offered smartphones with the already complete Megoo, Windphone7, Symbian and Android.

Let the market decide what sells best, then allocate resources for new products and improvements accordingly. But no, Elop cares naught about profit and cash flow, he's got Ideology, a Religion called Microsoft. So he made sure nobody would buy the Megoo phones by pronouncing it dead at the release event, what a pervert!

Nokia shareholders and employees pay for the fool's ideology.

I guess finding an inventive realist for the CEO position is tough, but shareholders should better get to it.

Hey, I got an idea! Lets all buy one Nokia share and then oust that slimebag!

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Headmaster

Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

"Stephen Elop has done as much as any CEO could in transforming Nokia's culture in a short space of time"

That's nonsense, had Nokia taken the Android route, they could i'm sure be pushing out decent, affordable smartphones that are different from the rest.

Instead, they are lumbered with mediocre Windows Phone, with no developer support, another burning platform, and the problem that all Windows Phones are basically the same, as the OS is so uncustomisable (either by the end user, or the integrator), there is zero differentiation, aside from some coloured plastic bumpers.

Elop was never interested in what Nokia needed, nor what Nokia's customers wanted, he was only interested in what Microsoft wanted. That's is obvious to everyone.

And this is why everyone is dropping shares like the shitty stick.

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Mushroom

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

Perhaps I too can be an analyst, but I might have to change my name by deed pool.

I mean really, it's not hard to see where Nokia have gone wrong... It all started the day they employed several ex-Microsoft bods in high ranking sales positions, and an ex-Microsoft bod as their CEO.

The only mystery left is pinpointing the date they file for bankruptcy, and it RIM will beat them to it.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

Elop is ex-Microsoft. No way would Andorid be considered. The shareolders voted him in, they should have known what would happen. It's like appointing an ex-Accenture CIO and then being amazed at an influx of Accenture consultants arriving to work on projects at £2500 a day.

The share price will dive, Microsoft or someone else will buy them for a pittance. If Microsoft buy them then Nokia will end up the same way as Zune. The XBOX is Microsoft's only hardware success and it's basically a PC. RIM could buy them, Nokia know how to make good hardware.

Nokia RIP. My 6310i was a great phone. It did things my iPhone can't (e.g. be on silent until 5pm and then use a loud ringtone). It wasn't a computer, so my battery lasted all week.

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FAIL

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

Elop is a tool but Nokia's problems long predate him. Nokia's massive unresponsive bureaucracy, the infighting, the lack of follow through on platforms after Symbian and lack of follow through on products the market wanted are why Nokia was desperate enough to hire Elop in the first place.

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Joke

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

"That's nonsense, had Nokia taken the Android route, they could i'm sure be pushing out decent, affordable smartphones that are different from the rest."

Nokia IS pushing out smartphones that are different than the rest: no other manufacturer wants to make a phone with WP7!

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This post has been deleted by its author

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

"That's nonsense, had Nokia taken the Android route, they could i'm sure be pushing out decent, affordable smartphones that are different from the rest."

Alternatively they could have built a decent UI and development environment for Symbian and be pushing out absolutely stonking affordable Smartphones which are different from the rest...

I have to declare an interest here in that I spent a good few generally very enjoyable years making a pretty good living out of Symbian, doing work for Symbian themselves and (both directly and indirectly) a number of handset manufacturers, but, if you compare the performance and battery life of Symbian handsets with other products running on similarly hardware it's hard to see the alternative platforms as exactly a giant step forward...

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Unhappy

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

XBox is indeed their only hardware success but by the sounds of it they are going to make damn sure to change that with their next version if what people are saying is true (killing second hand market, locking games to 1 account etc).

MS seem to have really gone a bit mental recently. It's worrying because I really don't fancy moving platform any time soon.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

When Microsoft buys a floundering Nokia at a fire sale price, Nokia's transformation as just another Microsoft's little OEM bitch is complete.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Anybody that had collaborated with Microsoft (Sendo) were doomed. Even a recent Microsoft's acquisition, Skype, turned to a steaming pile of turd after being bought.

I hope the Nokia board of directors muster up enough courage and sack Trojan Horse Elop, and come up with a coherent and sensible Plan B.

Oh, and Nokia can continue to make Windows phones, just like Samsung and HTC. Just don't bet the company's entire fortune on a proven failure of a mobile OS. There should be no more than 2 Windows phones released every year.

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Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

To be fair, Microsoft's mice, keyboards and joysticks are not at all bad.

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@Barry

You do realize that the Windows Phones only consist of 1/6th (2 out of 12 million) of all the phones they sold in the past quarter?

Sure, they could have expected higher sale ratings, but then again; the OS is still quite new. And it seems to me that Nokia isn't betting on a single horse here given that the majority of phones sold weren't Window Phones.

Yet it seems that everyone is ignoring that part.

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Unhappy

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

"I might have to change my name by deed pool."

Nooooooooo!

Your name is a constant source of amusement and I, for one, would miss it on these forums.

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FAIL

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

That too could have worked.

Basically, had they done nothing, or done anything else than Windows Phone, they might not be fighting for survival now.

Nokia shareholders decision to hire Elop will go down as the worlds biggest fail in the history of epic failures..

On the Symbian thing,

Personally, I don't think Symbian had it, and Android would have been better suited, as developers migrated from a Nokia-only ecosystem for their apps, to the Android ecosysem that supported all phones (aside from those shiny/fruity designer ones that are more fashion statement than phone), eventually nokia would have been forced to either go Android, or provide some kind of compatibility like RIM have tried to do.

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Thumb Up

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

So strangely, I'd say, they've been doing exactly that over the past two years.

I might be biased being an N8 owner, but the improvements to Symbian^3 with Anna and Belle have been pretty impressive even for this now-nearly-two-years-old hardware. The developer downside is that everyone's written off Symbian and don't care how much better it's become. The Qt/QML development platform is first class.

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Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

I believe if Nokia had gone the Android road they'd still be in a bind. Firstly they'd have to compete with every cheap'n'cheerful Android-running handset out there and, secondly they'd be at the mercy of Google to push the feature envelope, e.g. could they do the PureView (or FM transmitting, or, or) if they had to rely on Google or Microsoft to tweak the OS, more so if they're just one of many licensees?

I've looked at the overview of handsets introduced at MWC and nobody in the Android world is really trying to push the envelope...everyone's waiting or punting ICS.

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Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

to be fair Zune was actually a fantastic piece of hardware, arguably better than the iPod, and the zune player for windows is miles better than itunes (shame it never integrated syncing with other devices), unfortunately MS screwed up big time by releasing it with minimal enthusiasm and marketing in the US only and then essentially sitting on their backsides hoping to knock apple off their perch without putting any effort into it. Lets hope Nokia do better.

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Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

skype was always a steaming pile of turd! At least MS haven't wasted their time polishing..

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FAIL

Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

huh? MS has around a dozen WP hardware manufacturers?

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Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

I, for one, would subscribe to the "Shitpeas Report" just to have the binder on my bookcase (as opposed to the usual placement of Analysts reports in the "smallest room" where the high quality paper is really useful)

With any prediction like this it amuses me that no-one compiles league tables of how bad Analysts actually are at predicting anything ... I wonder if there's a business in that...

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Anonymous Coward

Re: XBox is indeed their only hardware success

Not sure how you factor that. 4+ years of acute unreliability and forcing owners to buy multiple units, whilst it might be marketing genius to create a crap and broken one, and then brainwash gamers into wanting one, locking them through Xbox Live and then sell them a working one again later down the line, it's certainly not a success in the conventional sense.

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Anonymous Coward

I feel so dirty...

I upvoted Barry Shitpeas... I need to go take a shower now.

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Nokia blew it big time

Nokia was in the phone handset business not the promote Microsoft software business.

Unfortunately, Elop was too stupid to know it.

If you really want to be successful selling phone handsets you should not and can not limit your hardware to a single platform. There is absolutely no reason to do so.

Apple thinks there is. But, they will be rellagated to a premium high priced market - a niche market. So too is Nokia. Just not the premium market. More like an also ran with a small percentage of the overall market.

Nokia should be trying to license the Apple technology if it could. Maybe Apple will have none of that. But, Android is readily available. And yes, by this time Nokia could easily have a number of Android phones out there doing well. But, instead they are sinking fast. A phone from Microsoft is not going to make any company profitable. Unless, of course, it is just one of the many options available.

Elop was only interested in what Microsoft wanted. That is very clear and obvious. And it has doomed Nokia.

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Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something

This is the age of the software experts. Both Apple and Google have software development skills no phone company from the past had or have today. The typicall Android phone maker gets the most of the OS for free and yet they have a hartd time to get updates out in a quick fashion. This demonstrates how uncapable they are when it comes around to software.

Apple have a better position here since they certaintly are well suited to develop a system with all the bells and whistles that meet the new level we have today.

Google have their system under control and seems most to be dragged behind by the phone makers a bit. If they would be on par with Apple at all levels all the Android phone makers would push out new updates the day they were released.

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Re: @Barry

It is not as much as what have been sold as what to expect from a more Win centred line up that is expected to come. If Nokia hardware is not the missing piece for a Windows phone then we will have a few phones from Nokia if they are interested in such a small market cap at all when it sinks in? That is what bet on one plattform is about. You'll see how Nokia is going to cut of the other platforms and going Win only. That's certaintly not meant as 'Win' as in winning anything.

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Anonymous Coward

Analysts! Analysts! Analysts!

These points are quite relevant, yes.

But it was also analysts who predicted iphone's downfall back in 2007 (no applications, no 3g etc).

I have very little faith in these analyst predictions. Their hindsight is better, and is usually apologectic (if not amnesiac).

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Thumb Up

Re: Analysts! Analysts! Analysts!

Analysts are best seen* and not heard.

* Dangling from a gibbet

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Headmaster

Re: Analysts! Analysts! Analysts!

I think you'll find some analysts predicted flop. some predicted a success. Tarring all analyst, or journalists pr commentards with the same brush is a bit daft.

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FAIL

Re: Analysts! Analysts! Analysts!

Nokia messed up around 2001 or 2002. They long ago passed the event horizon.

Demise of Crystal, destroying Trolltech/Qtopia, Maemo and Meego shows that.

Even if they had Early Adopted Android they would be on a nosedive today.

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Well duh? Developers are taking a wait-and-see approach, and can you blame them? The CF and Silverlight were obvious choices for mobile development - and they were dropped. I'm wary of investing in Metro when, looking at history, chances are it will be discontinued in a few years anyway. I don't even trust HTML5/JS very much at this point. Microsoft needs to stop behaving like a kid with ADD.

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Facepalm

HTML/JS is just one way to code for WinRT, and fundamentally there is no reason to believe WinRT won't become massive. It's clearly obvious WP8 will run WinRT apps just like Windows 8, and porting the existing WP7 apps over to WinRT will be absolute minimal effort. It's also pretty obvious WP8 won't simply drop support for all the existing apps, it will happily run everything WP7 runs today. Microsoft aren't f'ing idiots!

I simply don't see why any developer should be put off developing an app today, nor do I see why any developer wouldn't have faith in WinRT. There is already massive amounts of documentation freely available from Microsoft detailing all of this.

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Alert

FUD

MS have confirmed that WP7 apps will work on WP8. All WP7 apps are Silverlight.

Therefore either a) WP8 supports Silverlight or b) it runs a Silverlight emulator.

Personally, on a phone, I find the latter theory unlikely.

Therefore, FUD.

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Anonymous Coward

@alexh2o

Good luck transferring those skills.

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For once i concur with the Analyst

I really like the BeOs reference. This is spot on.

Fresh, new, innovative and eventually dead..

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Mr Ballmer to the stage please

It's time for the 'Developers! Developers! Developers!' dance.

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How to fail

Simple way to guarantee failure would be to announce WP8 will not be available for the brand new Nokia 900 and the other Windows phones being marketed now.

Makes sense to assume the worst. After all if WP8 is to be supported whats the mileage in secrecy?

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Anonymous Coward

Re: How to fail

Given Microsofts history, you know WP8 won't be available as an upgrade for current handsets. Historically Microsoft's licensing model makes it difficult (read expensive) for their licensees to provide upgrades for existing handsets (unless it was in the process of being released when you bought the handset - and only to avoid everyone to hold off for a handset with the new version on it).

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Anonymous Coward

win8

I think part of the MS plan is to push win 8, which in turn will push win mobile.

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Jah

Samsung sold more of their niche Galaxy Note Smartphones in Q1 than Nokia sold for all their entire WP offerings. This is failure - Nokia needs a plan B for sure.

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Costs too much :-(

As a .net developer, I recently took the plunge to WinMoPho, thinking "if there are any missing apps, I'll write my own", then I found out I needed to pay Microsoft something like £70 for the privilege of publishing said app to the MarketPlace.

No thank you.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Costs too much :-(

That's silly. I make more than that in a month from ads for my WP7 apps.

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Anonymous Coward

Re: Costs too much :-(

So not much different than apple then. Except winmo7 has a much smaller target market...

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Re: Costs too much :-(

Or just unlock your device and side load your apps...

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Facepalm

Re: Costs too much :-(

Wait, what?

You mean Microsoft are charging people to publish apps?

Surely they want to attract more developers and bring more apps to the platform.

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Re: Costs too much :-(

I think this is MSFT's marketing tactics. Give away free Nokia hardware at Developer Shows, and then charge all the developers to use the free phone.

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Re: Costs too much :-(

$99 is the same as Apple, and compared to Android there's at least some quality control before flooding the market with crapware.

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Oh Nokia

What the hell is a company like Nokia doing not being at the Android cutting edge. And getting into bed with an old dinosaur like MS ? It seems to go against all Nokia values.

I worked for Nokia '94-97 and it seems to be now the exact opposite of what it was then, in every way. The whole company seems to have gone through a crappification process.

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Re: Oh Nokia

S Elop = Trojan Horse not fit for breeding

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