A week after the Chancellor of the Exchequer delivered his Budget statement to Parliament, the Office for National Statistics has confirmed that the British economy shrank more than expected in the last quarter of 2011. The ONS published official data today that showed that the limping services sector dragged the economy down …
Worse than expected
by economists or worse than expected by realists?
I think its probably currently performing better than realists expect - until its re-reassessed.
An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today. - Laurence J Peter (of the eponymous Principle)
I thought 0.8% was generous
Who knew I was right?
Class Inertia and its Economic Consequences
The majority of land in the U.K. is owned by, and benefits only, a few thousand families (the upper class). The majority of income derived from the world's second largest "offshore secrecy jurisdiction" aka. the "state within a state" of the City of London benefits only the same few thousand families (for whose sons the compulsory bankers bonuses are intended - it looks marginally better than a tithe enforced by the sword after all)...
Almost all the institutions which took over 150 years for the labor movement to win over to ownership "by the people for the people" under democratic control, have been returned within the space of thirty years to the "private sector" which effectively means (through chains of ownership which disappear once again into the CoL) the upper class.
What happens to the rest of the country - as long as they stay, and are kept, in the their place - really doesn't matter.
The structure of the country as it is now - which has remained unchanged for far too many centuries - will only gravitate back either to another attempt at military empire, or an impoverished country of serfs being ruled by a distant elite. I doubt it is capable of anything else given its dynamic of ownership and self-interest.
For all their many faults, by comparison, the Germans have moved on politically and structurally (thanks to the postwar political theorists from the U.K. and U.S. who couldn't get their ideas implemented at home!)... they are sharing more of the wealth, more of the information, more of the power. Anybody who spends some time living there can witness the robust, fault-tolerant, innovative country they are developing through careful tending of laws with the interests of all at heart, a ceaseless political discourse, and a voting system which allows alternative viewpoints to rapidly emerge and be aired.
We could be there now as well, and probably doing even better thanks to our openness as a people,
if we'd had a revolution a hundred years ago.
I don't want to feel so hopeless about the situation, but it is hopeless. Isn't it?
Given that a lot of government cuts haven't been implemented yet, it seems fair to assume that domestic demand will decline further in 2012/2013. I suspect the treasury bods will have to get really creative with the numbers for the chancellor's forecast to be in the right ballpark.
Or they could do more tricks like they have with taking over the Royal Mail pension scheme whereby the existing assets are counted toward the balance of payment but the corresponding future liabilities magically disappear.
>Osborne told Parliament last week that he was hoping to see UK growth rise to 2 per cent next year and to 2.7 per cent by 2014.<
And I told El Reg that the magical pixies at the bottom of my garden would be distributing Manna from Heaven by 2014 (just as likely to happen). And, oh yea, I think I love you Ben 50.
Disclaimer: I am not an economist.
My money''s on the pixies distributing manna, but what do I know? I was trained in old-school economics, where you looked for evidence to test theories. Post-Margaret Thatcher, wishful thinking masquerading as economics has been much more in vogue, as George Osborne is showing.