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back to article Windows Phone to overtake iOS in 2015

Nokia's ever-expanding friendship with Microsoft means that come 2015, the Windows Phone platform will overtake Apple's iOS as the world's second most-favoured operating system after Android. That's according to research firm IHS iSuppli, which this week forecast a positive outlook for the Finnish phone giant. According to the …

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hahaha

Delusional .... to be continue.

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Happy

I must admit,

I have seen more credible stuff on GraphJam.

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Coffee/keyboard

This bit of creative statistics palm reading sponsored by Micro$oft

Delusional would be a good way to put it...

But its also proof of concept that you can get anything repeated in the hall of mirrors that is modern media, if you have enough cash.

A lot of people don't think about method and means of propaganda anymore. Since WWII, the subject seems to be dead, as if propaganda had gone away with the nazis... but its evolved into a greater monster and the lies haven't become any less blatant.

There's really only one news aggregator left, since AP bought Reuters. Find out for yourself who owns that. And guess how easy it is to manipulate the news from that single bottleneck.

But everybody who even comes close to realizing there's something wrong quickly takes the blue pill, hoping to forget by the morning.

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Boffin

re: Delusional

I'll drink to that. Evil as Apple be, at least the App store is available in 9/10 of the world.

Windows Marketplace and Zune Marketplace? Nope. Only two third of the world gets it.

Remind me again why I'd want a phone that I can't load new software on to.

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WTF?

Makes me wonder...

How much money did that research firm manage to gross in? Think about it; as if anyone during the predicted time will hold all of this against them when things turns out to be wrong (which I personally think it will be).

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Unhappy

Not really,

corporate and journalistic memories are far too short for that to be a risk.

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@ LaeMing - sadly, you are correct

That is the reason why we seem to almost be asking to be treated like cattle.

Nobody remembers anything, in part, because there's some subconscious faculty in the mind that seems to know the information we are fed is all wrong to begin with, so why store it...

Gaddafi was great to do business with for 30 odd years... then suddenly, he had to go because of things everybody knew he was doing all along. Right... Sure... Mind telling us the real reason? No, sorry, if we told you, we'd have to kill you too.

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OS/2

I remember similar predictions for OS/2. Remind me how that went again ...

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FAIL

THats it

Pack it up RegHardware, you've officially lost your mind and need to put down.

Repeating nonsense numbers from a deranged crystal ball gazer as a news story of any kind utterly damages your credibility as a professional website.

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Alert

to be honest...

... I have noticed a definite trend towards the lowering in the biting rate these days. What happened to the " biting the hand that feeds" motto? Concurrently, the readership figures apparently jumped through the roof. Less marketting strategy and more teeth would be welcome.

Oh noes we've lost pulse! Charge. "STAND BACK!". Shock.

Rince, lathe, repeat.

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As bad as all those "Apple is worth more than..." articles which show utter illiteracy when it comes to business and economics.

Tip to journalists: comparing market cap to GDP is stupid.

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Lies, lies and statistics

Such predictions are always based upon a specific measurement at a single point in time and the assumption is that the rate of change or direction of change for a particular product will remain the static.

But as we all know things are never static, Blackberry sales are diminishing as are Symbian based phones.

I'm guessing they also omitted the iPad figures, it's still iOS even if it isn't a phone.

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jai
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rate of change / direction of change

and i think that is the problem here. the WinPho platform is far too new for any meaningful statistics to be drawn

but then, as we all know, analysts never bother themselves with facts or even realistic estimates. they don't earn money by saying "it's quite exciting, but we'll have to wait and see how it turns out". instead i'm sure they get paid to throw bones in the air and then shake a magic 8 ball.

it's no coincidence that the beginning of the word analyst and the end of the word bullshit are so closely related

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No!

"i'm sure they get paid to throw bones in the air and then shake a magic 8 ball."

No they might come up with the wrong answer that way...

It works like creation science. First you have the answer, then you do a "study" to reach that answer. Anything that gets in the way like facts is discarded.

I expect the more you want to stretch reality, the more the study will cost you.

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Trollface

I'm assuming...

that these two organizations subcontracted the research in this case to one Jim Coleman?

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Pint

Sounds good

I'll have a pint of whatever they are drinking, looks to be damn good stuff

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Go

It comes in pints?!

I was assuming they were consuming it by the keg.

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Comical

Comical... Really can't think much beyond that.

Regardless of your particular love / hate affair with iOS (iPhones), Joe Public consider them the "in device" to have and claiming that winPho will miraculously shoot up in market share in such a manner is just delusional.

This is before you consider the lengthening contract lock-ins that most phone users suffer with these days. i.e. somebody who purchases an iPhone today is likely to have a 2 year lock in before changing and during this time even if the device annoys the hell out of them on occasion they will have content and purchases that are tied to the vendor if not the device. This tie in might be loose but should not be underestimated when it comes to the weight of encouragement it places upon the user in their decision to either stick with the same vendor or move away. After all, keep with a similar system that you at least understand and keep your content and purchases or move to a new, unfamiliar system, and risk losing your content and having to re-purchase applications that you previously paid for?

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Android at 58%?

Much as I love the platform, that aint gonna happen unless they get the malware issue under some sort of control (already over 92 unique families in the wild). Preferably without the need for 3rd party AV apps with the performance characteristics of chocolate teapots.

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Downvoted twice? So there's no android malware, right? I was just imagining it? I await the downvoters justification with interest.

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Windows

Malware didn't stop Windows becoming the overwhelming choice on PCs. And quite a few people will associate malware with WP, since it is "Windows".

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Anonymous Coward

@Fishman

The malware came after Windows was popular.

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Anonymous Coward

no, your correct, your just not aloud to say such things on here, even though your point had nothing todo with MS, it is against android, which means it must be pro MS comment which means you must be downvoted. I happen to like WP a lot, suites my needs just fine (ill get downvoted for that comment too) but i happen to agree that this report is a bit odd, i cant see MS and Nokia changing the situation that much unless they can get the networks onboard and their in bed big time with Apple and android because one is a status device the other is cheap (for them) ie they make more profit from them. That article about MS giving out cash to sales persons punting WP devices might be a good idea, or they could sack the whole marketing team and get someone else to do a propper job of it.

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If you have to ask why...

TL-DR: you missed the point by a Brontosaurus or two.

Build a popular platform and the malware will come. There is Android malware because Android dominates the market. Even the walled garden doesn't suffice to keep the malware away from fruitphones, as has been showed several times. Although it does help: there is always a compromise between openness and security. My personnal needle is biased towards the "open" side of the dial, but to each its own (I don't own any android device, though). In passing, that is the exact recipe that made early Windows' success, and one of its most crippling woes: anyone could write stuff for the platform and get anyone else to install it, which attracted weekend developpers and malware writers alike.

Calling that "the malware issue" is, in my opinion -and for the downvoters I guess- misguided at best. There is some bad stuff around targetted at Android, yes. There is some bad stuff targetted at iOS, too (malware and scams alike; "I am rich"...). From what I gather in my social circles and in news outlets, it is very marginal (for iOS and Android alike). It regularly makes headlines only because quack infosec specialists are loved by mainstream media for their ability to provide doomsday headline.

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There is Android malware because Android dominates the market.

Nonsense.

iOS is not that far behind and where is the malware?

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@ Goat Jam

This is exactly my point - Android malware up 472% in a year, with no corrosponding "reported" comparable increase for iOS. Where are the MDM's for Android? Where are 'working' AV solutions I can manage centrally?

This is why not one of the downvoters have singularly failed to answer. Not one has reputed my claim - just downvoted because I refuted the sanctity of Android. Forget comparisons to Windows, forget IOS - I don't use either of those. I just want answers to the droid question I posed.

I *do* use Android, both as a user and as an admin, so I want to know if this technology will keep the Information Security department off my back in the months/years to come. So far, given the press publications, they've got good reasons to come knocking at my door. Just a pity I can't 'downvote' them as easily as I have been here.

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WTF?

Predictions out to 2015?

They just pulled numbers out their butts.

"Why Speculate?" by Michael Crichton:

http://www.wbsi.org/ilfdigest/commentaries_mar_04.htm

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A bit dilusional

I don't think its iOS that needs to worry about WinMob. iOS devices have been positioned in the market as being on the edge of a luxury phone (rightly or wrongly), whereas Android hasn't hit that mark, and just become an "everyphone everywhere" os.

WinMob is following the Android route to market. This analysis seems to be based on the faulty premise that 100+ Androids and 100+ WinMob phones are going to sell a certain number of handsets per model and thus drown out the handful of active models iOS - simply not going to happen.

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Holmes

Here's another extract from that report:

Windows phone market share has declined year-on-year since 2007. Projecting forwards, we expect it to hit zero basis points later this year at which point it will obviously bounce and rise very fast, aided by new models from Nokia that will be available in yellow (this analysis is based on the premise that yellow balloons rise faster than blue ones).

Beyond the 2015 timeframe, windows phone will hit 100% penetration (or "up to the hilt" if you prefer the analyst's term). It's impossible to say yet whether it'll bounce again or simply disappear at that point.

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FAIL

This is painful.

I did the iSuppli article the courtesy of reading it the whole way through, and there's no indication anywhere that the research was paid for by Microsoft, Nokia or anyone i.e. it seems to be independent; therefore iSuppli are not shills; they're just clowns.

To call it 'research' is being extremely kind. They're just making the numbers up as they go along. The statistical projection seems to indicate that WinPho will steal the extra market share from Symbian; and that Symbian will lose market share to WinPho *and nobody else*.

And there's plenty else in there to indicate that their 'research' has hardly been diligent, e.g. 'RIM, whose Blackberry phones are popular among corporate users' (duh #1: the only reason RIM have market presence at all right now is that they've been able to sell BlackBerrys to the kids as well); and 'Because of Nokia’s support, apps developers will eagerly shore up the Windows platform' (duh #2: did they actually speak to any Nokia/Symbian developers, and find out how they really feel about moving, or being made to move, to developing for WinPho?)

Off to read Popbitch now, where the research is often as spurious but usually much more entertaining.

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There's always next time

MS and Nokia may not have commissioned this report, but after such an excellent blowjob, don't you think they might be first in line when the next batch of "favorable report dollars" are dished out?

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How do these company make money from pure guesswork?

I have been in Telecoms for 25 years & lost count of the presentations I have seen that say in 5 years time XYZ. Experience has told me they are invariably wrong. Someone could to a nice study on how many came right & companies like Gartner & this one would go bust, but nobody ever checks back.

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Trollface

Apple does not care

They will still make 90% of the profits in the market

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Linux

Those stats look a bit odd to me, can IOS be doing that badly? Surely when the next iPad and iPhone are released the IOS curve will go through the roof?

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FAIL

Indeed

What, Apple plans to release new Ipads and Iphones?

I don't think we took that into account.

Oops.

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can ios do that badly?

The market share of IOS is respectable considering it's marketed as a boutique device with a high profit margin. IOS is essentially the Harley-Davidson of the phone world. If you have to ask, you wouldn't understand.

Android doesn't have the mindshare of IOS but it's dirt cheap and has equivalent functionality, so the numbers will tend to be greater.

I don't see that WP really has a place in the market. It's mindshare has been forever destroyed by that frustrating waste of time that was Windows Mobile, and it's got to have a more expensive overhead cost than Android. So it has terrible mindshare at boutique prices -- essentially the worst of all possible worlds.

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Windows

Hell I like my windows phone but how anyone could take this report seriously is beyond me.

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Coat

How much

So how much did MS pay for that article?

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Coat

I was going to take the piss..

I was going to take the piss out of this prediction.. after all, how can struggling Microsoft beat the mighty Apple in the smartphone market?

But actually the prediction makes some sense, as what it is really saying is that the market for non-iOS/non-Android smartphones will consolidate around Windows Phone rather than other the other platforms. And that might (just might) squeeze out Apple in terms of volumes shipped.

Remember, whatever the figures, Apple is making much more per unit than rivals, so the units shipped doesn't tell the whole story.

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so what about profit?

as a developer i want to know what os will have the largest userbase. i don't care how much the fanbois are getting ripped off for their Jesus phones only which have the biggest numbers.

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Anonymous Coward

I can believe it!

After all iOS not only has the "your a bit thick" air around it, it looks and feels OLD and is just pants.

More and more people are coming to realise this. Give it another 3 years and that will only be compounded.

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Unhappy

@Obviously!

"your a bit thick"

The fucking irony!

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Windows

And obviously...

you're assuming that iOS will remain static. And WinPhOS hits its targets.

Interesting that the report assumes that WinPhOS' main rival is iOS and not Android. Seems odd as WinPhOS will end up being given away as MS chuck money at it; therefore taking market share from Android.

Yep, that'll be the case. WInPhOS will be given away, so takes market share. Should we flog this to Microsoft as a strategy?

On another graph, profit, iOS is shown as 80% with all the rest left in the noise.

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> you're assuming that iOS will remain static.

History says it mostly will

> And WinPhOS hits its targets.

History says it mostly won't. History also says it probably won't matter.

That's not a judgement on the merit of the platforms. Just an observation. iOS saw pretty little actual changes since its creation*, and MS current overwhelming desktop dominance doesn't have anything to do with reaching targets.

*well, appart from the token fixes of deliberate omissions like copy/paste ans such

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Pint

This article promotes a rather optimistic viewpoint for Windows Phone. Seems like random calculations based purely on speculation. This assumes of course that Apple's iPhone release this year and next year aren't even remotely impressive or that less people buy them than are to be expected. Or maybe this article is based on the fact that Windows phones have replaced iPhones on popular CBS TV shows? LOL!!!

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Loud enough & often enough

The world, today, is littered with both idiots and intelligent people intent on informing us of their beliefs. They both have access to the same conduits for the dissemination of their opinions. The value of these opinions is approximately equal: it's zero, just extraneous noise, I'm not even suggesting they cancel each other out, the aggregate is zero. The referenced articles are perfect examples of this phenomenon. Just look around, they're everywhere.

TGIF!

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FAIL

Yeah right...

The problem with ridiculous predictions like this is that they consider that Apple will stall where it is now, while only Microsoft will innovate in phones. Apple is likely, as a corporate entity, to do all in its possible to stay ahead of Microsoft's Windows Phone by releasing newer, attractive hardware (iPhone 5, anyone?) and newer software (iOS) to go along with it. I agree, that if Apple does nothing, Windows Phone does have a chance at passing iOS, but the likely hood of that... I would not bet on it!

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Happy

Things you don't often see in a sentence; #18.

Microsoft...

Innovate...

...in Phones.

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Meh

I like the look of WP7, I believe it's market share will expand and I hope it does (no plans to jump ship from Android but the more options there are, the better) but these numbers do just seem made up.

Also, any number of things could change between now and then that completely change things, even if the basis of the figures were sound... someone could pick up webOS and run with it from nowhere, MS could pull out of the smartphone race, Canonical might get their act together and get Ubuntu onto smartphones, and it might take off.

I'm not saying these things are likely, but even less likely things have happened in the past, and will happen again.

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Haven't you heard? Microsoft just pulled a 'Nokia' on WebOS, putting their own man in to sabotage the company. WebOS is more likely to be a burnt platform before 2015 than revived.

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