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back to article WinPho sceptics cut Lumia 800 sales estimates in half

One swallow doesn’t make a summer – and week’s worth of phone sales doesn’t make a comeback. Nokia has responded to gloomy analysts sniffing at the initial consumer response to its first Windows phone. In a statement, Nokia says it’s had its highest-ever first-week sales from the Lumia 800 – but analysts say it will ship fewer …

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Liked it

I did play with one of these (while waiting for the Galaxy Nexus). It is blazingly fast, everything is very smooth but it is still a take it or leave it phone, I struggled to see how much of the interface can be customised.

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As far as I can tell

Almost none - you can pick which live tiles you want on the home screen, but that's it.

That's all the manufacturers can do as well - which is both good, and bad:

- Consistent look-and-feel across different Windows Phone 7-based smartphones, less crap forced by operators.

- If MS get it wrong, every WP7 manufacturer is fooked as they can't change it.

- Zero differentiation, so customer brand loyalty is to WP7, *not* to Nokia/HTC/Samsung etc.

Thus it's a very dangerous route to market - if a customer likes their Lumia 800, it's WP7 they like, and not Nokia. Thus their next phone is no more likely to be a Nokia than any other WP7 based phone.

- Compare HTC Radar, Nokia Lumia 800, HTC 7 Mozart, HTC TITAN, Nokia Lumia 710. All very nearly identical, the only difference is the edge of the casing.

Because Android allows manufacturer customisation (and even outright forking), they can differentiate their Android-based phones. Thus customer brand loyalty is towards the specific manufacturer (and their overlay or spin of Android), rather than simply Android itself.

For example, you can recognise the HTC Sense UI from the other side of the phone shop!

The downside is of course that someone having a bad experience may blame Android rather than the phone manufacturer and reject all other Android-based phones.

Is that the bigger risk? I don't think so.

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Anonymous Coward

Spot on.

However perhaps I am the only person confused by Stephen Elop when he said that Nokla didn't go with Android because they couldn't differentiate themselves from the other players, so they would go with Win Pho 7 instead which offer no customization at all.

So either.

I'm a fucking idiot

Stephen Elop is a fucking idiot

Stephen Elop is a Microsoft plant in Nokia.

Personally, I think it's the later.

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Except Google have removed the ability and need to do most of that customisation in Android 4.

Except most people say they prefer stock Android and remove the custom fluff HTC, Samsung, Sony, Motorola, etc put on there.

Don't get me wrong I agree Windows Phone doesn't let people change all that much, but that works well enough for Apple. I think they plan to allow more customisation down the line, but really the most important thing is your information and it presents that better than the other OSS.

Personally I'm on my 2nd Android phone and I decide by hardware not by some (probably) annoying manufacturer skin. There isn't much to choose between with hardware with Android or Windows Phone, Android just has the edge cos there are more phones at this stage. Not that hardware choice (again) has been a problem for Apple.

Basically you can argue anything as a plus or minus for any OS, Windows Phone looks good, whether Nokia and MS make a success of it is another matter, but if people can look past the shine of an iPhone, the geek fun of Android, and their MS hate then it might just change the mobile landscape.

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@theshark

I think you kinda missed my point.

WP7 doesn't allow varied hardware, varied skin or indeed any notable variation at all. All the WP7 phones have the same screen resolution and the same buttons.

Selecting a phone based on WP7 is the same as choosing which iPhone you want.

That's fine for Apple - an iOS fan will be buying an Apple phone.

However, a WP7 fan has no reason at all to care which manufacturer it is - bad for Nokia unless they become the sole WP7 manufacturer.

With Android, because the manufacturers can put their own spin on the UI, they have the ability to make themselves stand out - and thus give the customer a reason to pick an HTC phone over a Samsung.

Some customers will dislike the 'custom fluff' - however, it gives each manufacturer a way to differentiate even if the rest of the hardware specs are exactly the same.

On top of that, Android doesn't specify much about the phone hardware - physical buttons, screen res, camera(s) etc - so manufacturers can differentiate on hardware.

Thus the customer has many reasons to care which manufacturer and which specific phone they get.

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jai
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very nice

Colleague at the office has one of these, and very nice it is too. Feels well build, and the rounded edges spark nostalgia for the way the original iPhon felt in the hand, or an old iPod nano.

Interface seemed very nice and fast, although I wondered how it would work if you have it loaded with a lot of apps. Would it still seem so easy. But then, that's not a problem until there actually are a lot of WinPho apps that are worth having, i guess.

Overall, I liked it, and if it wasn't built by Nokia, and running M$ software, and I didn't already have an iPhone, then I'd likely consider it at length, before choosing an Android or iOS phone instead.

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FAIL

eh?

So, the only reason you wouldn't consider one is because it is a nokia running 'M$' (M$? really???) software?

Says it all really...

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Anonymous Coward

Monopoly

For once that MS doesn't have a monopoy to abuse, I am not about to help the bstards grow market share that's for sure, especially considering the great diversity Android has created. My hope is that they stick their sh*tty ribbon on one of these, that will be the final turn-off. They won't of course, they only force that kind of change onto their locked-in users.

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Meh

I'm not convinced

Nokia used to have some amazing phone diversity and were always ready to try a different riff on a design. If all they can do now is crank out generic blackslab after generic blackslab, either due to Winphone restrictions or other factors, they are doomed. The Nokia name won't be enough to carry them against Samsung, Apple & HTC.

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rubbish research

The whole post from Bernstein is based on google analytics comparison between nokia lumia and iphone 4s. I used the same graph and the lumia has a much higher hit rate than Samsung s2 when it first came out and right now has about half the hits of the Samsung s2. So if these analytics are to be believed it will have half the sales of Samsung s2 which isn’t a bad thing IMHO. Is Bernstein shorting nokia by the way?

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Anonymous Coward

What we all knew.

Windows Phone 7 (and 7.5) is shite, despite Nokia and Microsoft (obviously) claiming otherwise.

Nobody wants to pay top dollar for a phone that has Android 1.5 features from 2009, and Microsoft's control freakery.

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Speak for yourself

I loathed Windows Mobile and Series 60, had reserved respect for iOS but was firmly an Android man from first launch until earlier this year. Back in April I took a punt on WP7 (a samsung model) and I haven't looked back. It's great, I love it. I want it to get better of course but I like it a lot more in its infancy than I ever liked Android.

I get very tired of people who haven't used WP7 proclaiming with confidence that it's shit. No day-to-day experience of it = no valid opinion.

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Anonymous Coward

I had one (HTC Titan)

and it was shit. I sold it quickly before others found out.,

Really, HTC and Samsung need to meet their contractual obligations to Microsoft for making their WinPh7 phones and then go back to what they do best. Android...

We can then just write of Nokia as the new Motorola.

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Anonymous Coward

HTC

make cheap rip-off phones which break a lot

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Mushroom

It's a pity that so many people are so against WP7 without ever having tried it. Having come from android (and before that wm6) it 'just works', something that any phone should do.

It will eventually gain traction, as I personally know 2 people that have moved from idevices to the new nokia, and as it happens, more people will see it IS a good OS.

I wanted a new nokia, but the hardware specs didn't hit the mark for me, wanted that front facing camera, so I'm waiting for the 900 range to hit, and I'll be upgrading from my LG Optimus, still a very decent phone now.

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Anonymous Coward

Why the love for WP7?

Can't believe the pricing for this crap device too, totally insane. I thought this was supposed to target mid-range but the price point of £350 to £430 is distinctly iphone.

Having used Mango on my HTC (my employer is an MS only shop having just droppped BB from their portfolio) since it's release, I can say that there's some great evolution in WP7. But seriously the UI is so crap and I cannot belive that I am the only person on this planet that finds the massive incositencies in portrait and landscape switching to be an enourmous turn off. Honestly, the device just makes up its own mind... some things are portrait only (the main tiles, many of the menus and bizarely, the maps!) some things can do both (messaging, browser) and some are stuck in landscape (video). It is surreal and reminds me of playing bop-it the number of times I rotate my phone during the day just to use it. Oh, and the multitasking is a total joke 'resuming' for 5 secods on each switch. Any the tiles thing... lame ass and the novelty soon wears off. I do question how WP7 gets such favourable reviews, really it's got potential but at best it's 6/10 in its current incarnation and every other major OS is MUCH better.

But prob most disappointing from Nokia was not adhering to their 25+ year experience of mobile devices which always have 2 buttons - green to answer, red to hang up. Nokia knows this is the best user experince yet has dropped it in favour of the 'experts' from Microsoft's design. Fail. And on my HTC, I miss about a 3rd of incomming calls trying to answer the bloody thing.

But the full offline maps... soooo nice. But then I do keep a C7 for that already :) Then again, no bbc iplayer app and no ability to view and flash online :(

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Thumb Up

I deeply disagree with your evaluation of Windows phone, but at least you've actually had a go with one, unlike most of the naysayers here. I think it's ace, but it can't be all things to all men...

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Holmes

The favorable reviews have the same reason Telco sales people's windphone7 insistence has.

Microsoft is paying off anybody and everybody who will sell or say something favorable, including first and foremost the Telcos. I know all the sales people in the shops around here got special training and incentives to sell windphone7 over other options.

And you can't seriously believe Microsoft wouldn't use its bankroll to pay people on the internet to get a favorable word out everywhere they can. This will include bloggers, journalists and the usual nameless forum posters that get hired through online ghost-writer portals at 0.2 cents per word. So you can consider a bunch of the posts here coming from MS instructed ghost writers.

If you recognize how badly Microsoft wants to rebuild the position it had in this space, you'll know they are using all the methods I described and then some.

Of course that won't really sway me, since Ballmer left windows mobile customers out to dry for the better part of a decade, just because he figured he had the market sewn up.

Add to that Nokia, who's known for knee fall after knee fall for Telco's interests and going against customer's interests, like sabotaging skype mobile software release for years.

I'm really in no particular mood to support them. Of course I'm not in much of a mood to support Apple or Google either. Do I think Apple and Google are paying for opinion writers too? No...

Apple doesn't need to, there are hordes of logo enlightened sheep that will write about Apple day and night - for free...

Google is too arrogant to even consider it, they wouldn't even if they needed to, I think.

I'll do one thing, I'll avoid the insane thing I saw some people here say they do, which is basically upgrading their phone to some new 'supposedly, hopefully better' phone after only half a year or one year... That's just wasting money on something where the differences are not nearly enough... that's just either extreme boredom, or some strange kind of addiction.

And while you won't find me buying any Windphone7, I will pick up a Windows 8 tablet, just cause I can run Rosetta Stone on it for my kids, and other regular windows applications. And I think its pretty well guaranteed that someone will produce software that removes those silly tiles and makes it look like Windows 7.

First, Microsoft failed for a decade to make small, needed changes, and now, suddenly they caught a bad case of redesigneritis.

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WTF?

".....than they expected....."? Pardon? I may (of course) be missing something here but........

"but analysts say it will ship fewer units in the first quarter than they expected: 500,000 rather than a million"

.......on *what basis* did they "expect" Nokia to ship a million in the first quarter? Did Nokia say that they were going to and then change their minds? Did they have some other *objective* basis for believing that Nokia would or "ought" to ship a million in the first quarter? They call this analysis? After *two weeks*? I will try and be polite and not say anything about FUD but I have some difficulty understanding what apparently professional analysts are doing basing such prognostications on what they *thought* Nokia was going to do and the first two weeks of sales. I have no idea at this point whether the Lumia 800 will be a success or a failure and I am bloody certain these "analysts" don't either - not based on data that is either very limited or downright speculative at any rate.

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Anonymous Coward

It's a phone, stupid

Don't forget that some of the 'smart' phones don't work that well as, err, phones. Nokia has an enviable reputation as a maker of phones that work well, so that is in their favour, we shall see.

As an electronics designer I wouldn't fancy the challenge of getting good RF performance out of a piece of kit full of digital electronics. My HTC phone has woeful performance on its FM radio, of course the phone frequencies are a lot higher than that, but the amount of internal noise must be incredible.

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FAIL

Not hard to see why it won't sell.

Was waiting for this phone to arrive - until I discovered that it has no memory card slot. Immediately lost interest, and I'm sure many others did too. The only Mango phone to date that does have an expansion slot is the aptly named Titan, which is way to big for my needs.

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FAIL

It doesn't 'network'

The problem with this phone is that the looks are great (fast, shiney, etc.) but leaves much to desire. For example the simple issue of being able to use your own music / tunes as a ringtone (in other words: using an mp3 as ringtone). The original Win7 release did not support this, that's simply very poor with the current standards.

But my main gripe is that this critter doesn't really connect. Not in the sense I'd expect from a Windows phone.

Although I hardly use it these days I have a Toshiba Portege PDA / phone which runs a copy of Windows Mobile 6 (iirc, the classic "start menu on a phone" thingie). It came with a file explorer which I heavily utilized. Picture my surprise to learn that it fully supported Windows networking!

Simply adding "\\magi" made it check the shares on my server. I could even utilize a small video application ('MTV') to access video contents from such a share. AVI files which would hardly fit on the internal memory itself, but it played easily!

In other words; with a Windows phone I expect to be able to access my Windows computers like I do with my current phone; I plug it in using a cable and can then use it as an USB mass storage. Photo's, sounds (mp3) or sometimes even office documents if I have to (and don't have an USB stick around).

That simply task is not possible with this phone. Accessing your local Windows network? Forget about it.

Why would I want a "Windows Phone" when it can't even do so much as access my Windows computer ? I don't want to sync contacts from hotmail; I know better than to keep my customer contact information online. No; I want the phone to grab 'm straight from Outlook, like I'm doing myself using a VBA macro in Word. If I can do it, why can't this critter ?

Sure; I'm pretty confident that it will rock keeping all your social media updates present and when you do have contact information stored into it it'll probably look nice.

I simply prefer functionality over nice. And having to upload all your data to an online storage merely to get your phone to access it is not something I classify as a functional solution.

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WP7 is hard to sell on the shop floor. Looks weaker than it actually is.

Current WP7 devices look weaker than they should in the store front.

The easy to use Metro UI simply does not look impressive when the phone has no data, contacts, music, connectivity to populate the tiles. Swiping around and the experience seems poor as you get lots of sparse looking screens and could be interpreted as badly organised.

Look at an in use WP7, where the screens have lots of info, the tiles are aggregating useful information and you get to understand that usefulness of the Metro UI.

WP7 cannot compete on a spec checklist competition (partly due to it more modest hardware requirements compared to Android/IOS), lack of new whizzy bang features such as 3D, dual core (which the savvy will know might not equate to a better device) that sales men can use in their blurb to sell to not so tech savvy punters), its no surprise that WP7 devices are not selling. Microsoft cannot leverage brand loyalty or the locked in Windows experience or the sheer popularity as advantages anymore in a world where people are getting more used to mixing platforms between devices.

I am waiting to see more information about Windows Phone 8, I don't want to get tied into a 2 year contract where within 12months I could end up with an outdated OS, I would rather stay out of contract and get a WP8 phone. I would be sorely annoyed if I got a lumia 800 does not need the minimum requirements to run WP8 and WP7 simply get life support while the rest of the world moves on. And Yes I have enquired to Microsoft and got a we do not know response.

If WP7 had all the features of WP7.5 from the start I would of probably got one straight away knowing I would get a good life out of the device on a 2 year contract.

I think the Lumia 710 could actually make more sense than the Lumia 800 as the hardware spec matches up with older iOS and more budget orientated Android devices, long as it gets priced competitively.

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Gold badge

Fire sale please, slash the price to around the £150 mark and I'll have one.

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Thumb Down

6 hours battery life - 'nuff said.

I just saw one. I asked about the battery life. 6 hours.

With the old Symbian phones one would expect several days.

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Stop

6 hours?

I presume that's 6 hours of talk time?

Good god, how much do you need in a day? And saying that, which recent smartphone has better?

Certainly not the iphone 4s, or recent 'droids, with the possible exception of the defy+ with it's mahoosive battery...

If you pine for the days of s60 battery life and efficiency, then you better get a s60 phone while you still can...

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Silver badge

which recent smartphone has better? lots of them?

Most of the recent SE Androids are claiming 6-7hours talk time ;)

I'm more impressed with the 4-5 hours game time on my Play. Even with some serious battery drain issues (experimental kernel) I was seeing 2 days between charges before I installed the HD games - impressive since the drain problem was causing 3-4 days standby, down from 9-10 days on stock firmware!

I think its fair to say Nokia have managed to reach the same battery life as everyone else, but dismally failed to beat it.

So much for the famed Nokia tech skills then. This is not looking good for the brand, no obvious technical superiority, no unique OS.

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erm...

You quote 'any recent SE Androids' as beating the 6 hour quote, then say they are quoting 6-7 hours... so, the same, or maybe slightly better. Possibly.

And that is your proof for saying 'lot's of them'?

And BTW, for what it's worth, whilst I believe your phone MIGHT go 9-10 days on standby (although I doubt it, unless you live under the mast...) I refuse to believe that you have done ANYTHING resembling 'smartness' with it in those 10 days...!!!

That's not a dig at SE, or android, just a comment on the state of play in smartphones generally.

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Boffin

Sales will be down...

Until they launch it in the US and China...

Last time I checked no US online store...

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Anonymous Coward

Initial estimate for sales considered the fact there would be no US sales.

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Facepalm

Doesn't sound good...

"It’s put a lot of effort into ... ensuring demo units don’t go haywire."

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Silver badge
WTF?

It doesn't even multitask...

Sorry for 2 posts in one thread (not my habit) but...

So I have a TechNet subscription which I use for work and myself, and every once in a while I simply visit the website to check up on news and new developments. Today I came across the "Windows Phone 7.5 Guide for IT Professionals". This is freely available, see here:

http://www.microsoft.com/download/en/details.aspx?id=27743&ocid=nlc-n-nl-loc--Technetnieuwsbrief&WT.mc_id=nlc-n-nl-loc--Technetnieuwsbrief

From the 'Enterprise security and policy management': "In addition, Windows Phone does not allow apps to run in the background at any given time, which prevents hidden apps or spyware apps from preying on users. The moment a user switches to a different app on Windows Phone, the previously used app is put into a dormant state and its application state preserved.".

While that's all good and well for security, it makes usability for common (non-office) users totally worthless!

I'm sitting in the bus or train to go $somewhere and I get bored.. I pull out my headphones, plug 'm into my Samsung Jet and listen to some music. But since I took this ride a dozen times now I don't feel like looking at the scenery today; so I simply pull up the task manager, go back to the start screen and from there fire up the internet browser. Now I can read up on the news or my e-mail while enjoying some nice music.

If you can't even do /that/ on this phone then I don't see this being anything closely interesting for the average public. Sure; it maybe good for business users, but this is no where close to "having fun".

If you think that is bad...

From that same document:

"Some phones are equipped with an internal storage slot for SD memory cards. In most cases, the slot is difficult to access and hidden in the phone chassis. When an SD card is present, the Windows Phone file system spans the internal memory of the phone and the SD card. As a protective measure, removing the SD card will reset the phone and wipe all user data remaining on the internal phone memory unless the same SD card is re-inserted. Inserting a different SD card will wipe the phone and reinitialize it using the new card."

THAT is going to be FUN whenever you can't afford a big SD card /yet/ and thus decide on sticking with a smaller one for the time being!

How can it get worse than this? Well, simple:

"In addition, Windows Phone implements a standard SD card lock mechanism to lock the card using a unique 128-bit key that pairs the SD card to the phone. Access to the SD card is prevented by the SD card controller unless the correct 128-bit password is supplied, which makes it extremely difficult to access data on an orphaned SD card."

In the scenario I described above (which wasn't a joke) I used a dongle to access my SD card using a card reader thus I could manually copy the data from it to the new card (which was by then sitting in my phone).

Or what about using your SD card as a means of backup ?

Honestly; I can see this being a very good thing for businesses. But for the average consumer market? No way that this is going to catch on, impossible.

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You my friend have NOT described the average consumer market. Not even close. In fact most of the negative posts here are ridiculous. Most people don't do any of the shit you guys do with their phones. You guys are so wrapped up in advanced tech crap that nobody else cares about it's fricken laughable.

Oh....yes you can listen to music and do everything else you might want to on your windows phone without affecting your music listening.

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Anonymous Coward

On the Contrary...

He's describing just the sort of thing that is going to trip up the average *non-techie* phone user.

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What exactly will trip up the average non techie phone user? The ease of listening to music while simultaneously doing EVERYTHING else your phone can do? The switching of sim/memory cards thing hasn't been a problem for iPhone users...why would that be a problem here? No non-techie switches cards. The Windows Phone is absolutely simple for non-techies...nothing to screw up. I've NEVER not ONCE had to reboot my phone for any technical reason. It doesn't lock up, it just does its job. Anyone who talks about his tech net subscription in the same voice as "average user" doesn't know anything about the average user.

Also it's quite apparent that the tech net poster hasn't used the phone because he completely misinterpreted what he read.

How about this, if you have no experience with the Windows Phone OS you don't make comments about it as though you know what you are talking about? How about if your experience with the OS is limited to 5 minutes trying one out that's attached to an anti-theft lanyard at a phone store you admit you don't really know the OS?

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Silver badge

@largefile

No, I don't have experiences with the phone I simply picked up this information straight from MS themselves (as you can read).

And the issue of multi-tasking is a very important aspect to consumers, often even without knowing or realizing it.

Sure; the SD card doesn't have to be an issue perse, but don't forget the other issue: you can't easily copy files back and forth between your PC and the phone. SO what is the next logical step to do to circumvent this? Take out the SD card and use that. As said above; that's going to be fun!

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WTF?

you've totally got your shit wrong dude. You CAN listen to music whilst doing other stuff. I don't know what you were reading because this has been in WP7 since day one. Might I be so bold as to suggest you've misunderstood? In any case I'd love to get a reference to the document you claim to have read.

Faffing around with SD cards is not an issue to 99% of people, as evidenced by iPhone.

It's WAY more convenient not having to deal with seperate silos of storage caused by having a memory card. You sync your data either by uploading it straight to skydrive directly from the phone itself - which is super easy. Or if you fancy keeping it local, then you hook up to zune and sync to your PC. There's even a Mac sync client, if that's your platform of choice.

I understand some people feel the need to carry with them more data than can ever be consumed in a lifetime, and if so, cool, go android, but if you're actually rational about these things, then WP7 is a decent choice.

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Silver badge

@fiddley

Interesting.

So MS misinforms us about security aspects and makes false claims ?

That is pretty bad IMO, you can't have it both ways. Because now we're left to wonder which parts hold truth and which don't.

Unless of course MS has tied certain features to their own OS so that only they can utilize that while other developers cannot. So; you can use MS media player in the background because it has ties into the OS but if you want to use your own mediaplayer then you're stuck with the limitation mentioned in their technical guide.

All in all not the best start for a smartphone IMO.

It is this lack of clear and direct information which bothers me. Same with the Win8 preview; only after days of demonstrations did they finally yet very briefly mention that people using a mouse simply had to move the Metro screen around.

Only when they released the Win8 preview could we see for ourselves how well a mouse fits into the Metro way of working (IMO it doesn't). But the same applies: instead of being clear about this from the start ("you can use Metro with a mouse, see; this is how you do it") they try to avoid the subject.

IMO the same applies here. They provide documentation for IT professionals yet it doesn't give us the complete story.

Is it really that hard to imagine that this makes people lose trust in the product(s) ?

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Angel

Time for a quick climbdown...

Seems you did provide a link, it does read like you say, and I can see how you interpreted it like that. Doesn't change the fact that you can listen to music on the go. So I guess you really meant to say "Microsoft: Great Phones, Crap Documentation"

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