Can Intel ever make a major in-road into the tablet market? Not likely, forecasts from market watcher DisplaySearch suggest. Mind you, even DisplaySearch appears unconvinced by its own charts, headlining its announcement today: "x86 processors and Windows 8 expected to take significant share after 2013." However, a glance at …
I am somewhat puzzled how they predict this linear growth based as it seems on two data points: 2010 and 2011. OK mathematically that defines a line, but will markets not become saturated after a while? Some error bars might not be amiss.
What a load of 5hYt
Anyone who thinks they can predict the future is kidding themselves.
RE: What a load of 5hYt
Statistical analysis. It helps you determine trends and extrapolate likely futures.
"Statistical analysis. It helps you determine trends and extrapolate likely futures."
And still get it 90% wrong.
"Anyone who thinks they can predict the future is kidding themselves."
I knew you were going to say that.
How do DisplaySearch possibly justify their headline "x86 processors and Windows 8 expected to take significant share after 2013", based on their own data?
Clearly this is not the everyday usage of "significant" - meaning "important; of consequence".
Perhaps they mean "having or expressing a meaning; indicative; suggestive: a significant wink" - i.e. the tiny market share after 2013 shows a significant failure of x86 and Windows 8 in the tablet market.
Or perhaps they are using the statistical meaning - "of or pertaining to observations that are unlikely to occur by chance and that therefore indicate a systematic cause" - i.e. the tiny market share is significant of the failings of the MS OS and Intel architecture.
"Apple's iOS will still be holding on to the top slot, accounting for 57.8 per cent of the tablets that ship in 2017. Android's share of tablet shipments will have grown to 33.4 per cent by then."
But Android tablets already have 27% in Q3 2011, and iOS is already down to 66.6% according to this article:
If that is correct, the 33.4% market share will most likely be reached by Android tablets in Q4 this year, not in 2017.
I'd take this with a pinch of salt. What do they do if Kindle Fire takes off and brings a host of imitators?
This seems quite flawed on the basis of current trends, as noted in previous comments, but with regard to Windows 8 tablets how can anyone predict how they will be received when hardly any potential purchases have a clue what they will offer or cost? Nor how much money M$ will be prepared to pay towards putting their OS into the public eye. Then there is the enterprise market. This has to be a huge guess. Trying to predict trends 8 years ahead in consumer IT seems like folly to me.
@Geoff Thompson Re "Flawed"
Agreed, the inclusion of Win8 in this kind of data set is ridiculous. They have no data from any sales of Win8, no pre-order data, no shipping data, nothing nada. How on earth one can pretend that such a prediction is anything other than *literally* guesswork is beyond me. Currently, for all we know, Win8 will be a complete failure or an utter triumph for MS or anything on a sliding scale in between those two extremes. The analyst industry appear to love making complete and utter fools of themselves.
Do these analysts ever report on how accurate their future predictions turn out to be? Probably not.
Some one should.
"Do these analysts ever report on how accurate their future predictions turn out to be? Probably not."
I think they do so about as often as politicians and lawyers who advertise (if you'll pardon the redundancy).
I think we can all agree....
How can they predict sales of tablets that aren't even released yet! Oh and then of course, as Michael H.F. Wilkinson, says, just assume its linear.
That DisplaySearch have just shown themselves up to be a bunch of fools. If they get it right, its by fluke and nothing more.
analysis is a valid thing to do, but in volatile areas like IT it is hard. And in a new, rapidly growing and maturing area of a volatile IT sector, predictions 5-6 years on are mere speculation.
How are they predicting again - chicken bones you say?
There are too many unknowns to predict. A scant few years ago, MS had basically 100% of the(very tiny) tablet space. If Apple can't cope without Jobs, and/or suddenly loses it's cool factor, or just makes a stupid misstep and bricks a bunch of devices with the latest update, that will change the percentages pretty quick. If Kindle fire lights up, then the tablet space also changes really, really fast. Or a butterfly in South America flaps a little more than expected... TOO many intangibles. This is a volatile market that is unpredictable, and not enough historical data to actually predict much of anything yet. Give it another year or two.
(Paris because might as well as her what the tablet market will look over the next few years)
I predict that the predictions will turn out to be wrong.
Depends what we end up calling a tablet
Once Win 8 hits the shelves OEMs will build touch into their laptops and desktops (some do already). I think that this will drive Win-8 installation on sub-notebook size touch enabled computers either with or without keyboard. That's pretty much the definition of a tablet now. What about a touch enabled 22" machine with no keyboard? Or 40"? Is that a tablet too? I think it may be.
So if I have this thing on my desk (at home or at work) and it does what I want it to do, and I am very familiar with it, then why would I want someone else's way of doing the same thing at home or on the bus or on a 'plane?
Microsoft's desktop domination my just be the shoe in needed to gt them right into the tablet market. Look what happened with netbooks...
Why no mention of those anywhere?
There's me thinking Intel wanted to push this hard....