By 2015, Windows Phone 7 will power 37 per cent more smartphones than Apple's iPhone, according to the prognosticators at International Data Corporation (IDC). "Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences …
The proof of the pudding
As with any crystal ball gazing, you have to ask how accurate said gazer has been in the past. What's IDC's track record? How well have they done in the past? Do they tend to do a big fail or are their predictions usually born out by events?
I could say that Meego will achieve 90% market share, but I don't expect anyone to believe me.
IDC are OK actually
IDC's work to date has been pretty good compared to the majority of analysts. They don't always get it right but they do more often than not.
copy and paste
Ahh, so that's what they meant by the WP7 copy and paste .. copy the figure from symbian cell and paste it in the WP7 cell.
Another money-spinning act of fawning sycophancy by the department of wishful thinking.
I'd like to add my own predictions that in 3 years time:
* Unemployment in Teeside will have fallen to 0.1%
* Stilton cheese will be outselling Brie throughout Europe
* Gordon Brown will have regained the Labour leadership and won a General election.
If that final one comes true I'm emigrating!
Considering that Apple's App Store is truly available worldwide while Microsoft's Windows Marketplace is only available to one third of the world, It'll be interesting to see how they could overtake Apple when users in the remaining two thirds of the world can't add apps to their WinPhone7 handsets. The backlash is already starting: there are already complaints coming in right here in Malaysia that WinPhone 7 handsets are about just as useful as mid-90s handsets.
Considering that Windows market place is 5 months old, I think it will be very likely, and don’t need IDC for that, to be available in the rest of the world pretty soon. At least it’s more possible that Windows market place will be available in Malaysia than it will be have a higher than iphone in 4 years time.
Sorry for Nokia
Used to respect and admire Nokia, but at this point I believe that Microsoft bribed them to swallow an entire lemon. On the other hand, my low regard for IDC remains basically unaffected.
The fundamental problem is that Microsoft's philosophy is to make weapons. Not compatible with elegant phones. I predict that Microsoft will never do well in any market where elegance is important, and I rest my case on the track record of all of prior versions. It's supposed to be the second system effect that produces the big improvements, not the seventh system.
...and for other manufacturers using WiPh7
If I'd already released phones on that platform, I'd be fuming now. In practical terms, the MS-Nokia deal will drive away other manufacturers from the platform. They may have started with the hope of taking a competitive lead, but Nokia will eat their lunch now (assuming the platform can succeed at all).
Are these the same analysts that predicted that Itanic would become the number one selling processor ?
Yes, and the same ones who, little more than a year ago, predicted a >50% market share for Symbian by 2015 *snigger*
Not a chance!
Before WinPhone7 gets 37% market share, Nokia will be toast! JMHO, but it just ain't gonna happen, IDC's Nostradamus impersonations or not...
Am I the only one who literally laughed out loud after reading the articles title? You don't have to be a fanboi to have some doubts about WP7, especially after the update fiasco.
can't see it happening myself. WinMo7 is shite, and I hope consumers are smart enough to to just accept what Microsoft force feeds them. then I look at how Microsoft force fed Xbox on consumers by getting the media on their side with backhanders (advertising budgets) and keeping them sweet with gifts, and I can see how this might work.
Expect years of Microsoft FUD spreading against Apple and Android. lots of paid off media reports and reviews, and millions of free handsets given to anyone willing to sell their soul and say nice things online about WP7.
Why do you say WinMo7 is that bad. I have had one for a couple of weeks now and it is a vast improvement over anything else I have owned before. Not saying it is perfect, it has some issues, but I would have the same with an iPhone (fixed storage, having to use Zune/ iTunes), but as a device it seems work extremely well.
So what differentiates WP7?
I mean it has no advantage over Android/Blackberry/iOS. Like the others, it's a deliberately locked down system without any actual usage scenario.
The problem is, yet again, that they made an "operator phone". As long as the devices are made to serve the interests of the operators, they will not be able to be different.
Nokia actually tried to escape that problem with Maemo/Meego. The N770/N800/N810 deliberately didn't have any GSM chips inside so they wouldn't be sold by operators. The result were the first mobile devices which were more than just a portable notepad or media player.
You cannot differentiate yourself by following the others.
Since when is throwing away the core component ie the phone/wwan data part a good idea? - you are alienating a massive potential user base. This only works if you define a new Market - ie Tabs
However it does not address the problem of building a better phone.
You are confusing 2 separate products and arguments.
Not that far fetched if upselling to an existing customer base?
1. Conversion of Symbian to WP7: More plausible if you also consider future conversion of Nokia 'dumb' and 'feature' phone users to 'smart' WP7 platform. Last figures I saw still had Nokia selling 4 handsets to every 1 from RIM and Apple. A big *if*, but combined with some loyal current Nokia smartphone user conversion that is a very large user base to farm. This depends largely on scale to get the price right for the upsell. I also disagree with the concluding remark that the only thing handset makers are interested in is margin: This is so patently ignorant and naive from a business perspective as it ignores any kind of segmentation in business which is common to ALL product businesses i.e. all industries have products for different segments of the market. Apple is the mercedes of the handset world and they arguably would not be interested in selling at the level required to capture the larger, but less lucrative, 'VW Drivers'. Android is a different proposition though!
2. For me, the one advantage of WP7 is the potential for seemless integration between MS desktop and MS mobile worlds. Almost a similar argument to the benefits that some people enjoy from living in an 'all Apple' world. The difference is, that unlike Apple, MS have a *massive* user base to try and farm onto their mobile offering too. So again, a massive customer base to try and leverage ...
That's a HUUUUUUGE if
I don't know many people that still love Nokia that much. A few years ago, sure. But a few years ago was when Nokia should have been changing the game by introducing smart, capable, modern smartphones. Instead they let themselves be usurped by new entrants to the game.
What's left of Nokia's reputation (solid devices, not that up to date, not sexy) could be completely ruined by a bungled or unstable Win Phone launch.
Even if it goes perfectly I don't see it making a difference. They missed the boat a while ago. Right now they're trying to figure out what to do about that. Waiting another year, while the boat disappears off into the distance before finally, weakly shouting "Hey, Come back!" is not going to help.
They should have grabbed Maemo by the balls when they were ahead.
RegisterThis: i find it interesting that 3 people already 'thumbed down' your comments above! And your comments are not overly pro any O/S, just making sensible comments. A lot of these thumb-downers must be fanbois of another system other than WP7 - it makes you wonder why they read the WP7 articles in the first place (and no doubt this post will get thumbed-down to the max - go for it dudes - thumb me down!!)
sent from my... (it's not an iphone and it's not an android, symbian doesn't do it and webOS is unavailable...)
Existing customer base
The turnaround in mobile phones is fast and the fact that Nokia takes a quick (1,2? year long) break in releasing state-of-the-art phones won't help the existing customer base. I was a happy Nokia customer and now I have a fancy Android phone, as does my slightly technophobe partner.
Family-based prediction: there won't be a customer base hanging around.
I thumbed you down
But only because you told me to.
I thumbed the other guy up. He was making a good point I thought.
You, however, were being a dick.
so being an anonymous coward makes you a cock then?!
I fully agree there are a lot of BIG ... nay HUUUGE IF's ... especially on the Nokia channel.
Just checked again (total handset market) in Q4 2010.
Nokia lost market share compared to Q4 2010, but still grew!
If you take it that Nokia, Samsung and LG represent 62.5% of the handset market and all will be sellling (not exclusively!) WP7, they can do a LOT of messing up and still have a massive market to push WP7 too!
"potential for seemless integration between MS desktop and MS mobile worlds".
I could make a comment on your Freudian slip of seemless because it does seem to be less, yes.
With iOS then last year you could have integration between phone, tablet and desktop. The essential element being the new 'must have' of tablet. With Android this also includes Netbooks, with WebOS you can have this now though desktop is in the future.
Microsoft has phone-only WP7, Desktop and laptop Windows 7. No tablet of any note and netbooks are either XP or crippled mode 'starter'.
Windows 8 is supposed to be all those things and they may catch up to everyone else's current position in 2012 or maybe 2013. Windows 8 needs a new GUI to work on touch tablets and desktops and this makes WP7 a dead end.
Windows 8 is likely to be .NET CLR based so that it can run on various CPUs and this means that legacy software (ie the stuff you run now) will either not run or be run under emulation.
no upgrade path?
If i can upgrade my HTC from WinMo 6.5 to Android 2.2 surely you can update other phones to newer versions of Android?
Hmm ... wonder how much M$ paid IDC to publish this?
I knew that WinPho was a number 2!!
I'd get a more realistic prediction if I asked an actual llama.
And it can't even dial with those hooves.
It Doesn't Compute (geddit)
Does it all really matter?
I'm sure it does (shareholders et al) but I'm not bothered by it all. I'll just use what works for me at the time and I couldn't give a monkeys what anyone else uses, that's their business, their choice and I respect that.
I really like my Windows Phone 7 but I know not everybody would like it; but then I'm not arrogant or juvenile enough to wrestle in on other people's choices.
What this does prove is competition is good, it's given people choices to find what works for them, and I am all for that.
I was thinking the same thing. I'm guessing that other than a shareholder thing, and a baseline for CEO willy waving competitions, probably the only other people it has any bearing on is the people who make a living from selling apps (sorry, Applications, just in case I get sued) as presumably they want to spent time on the platform most likely to score them the sales they need so they can eat and continue to provide the little joy biscuits for my phone.
Since there's probably a few of those types reading this, I'd really like to know how that works. Do you developer people just go with the most popular platform, or are there other considerations at play? Is it difficult to develop cross-platform? How do you decide which platform to develop your app(lication) for?
(All genuine questions, they may not seem genuine, but I can't help it, I type with a facetious accent, it's genetic, I think.)
While we're at it, if anyone knows of a website that offers decent and regular reviews of Android apps please feel free to pass it on, the in-store user comments aren't exactly useful.
Content content content
Nokia at one point understood that the next big play was content. Unless M$ and Nokia tie-up more content than Apple and Anroid they wont increase market share.
Sad but true that the modern Smartphone is actually an entertainment server and not the PDA with great communicaiton that Symbian was designed for. But some of us still want that but we have no choice now.
Windows Phone 7 - actually very good
The fundamental problem with Nokia during the past few years has always been it's software. It's one saving grace is the hardware.
Combine that with Microsoft's 'differentiating' OS - and the prospects actually do look good. There are obviously downsides and limitations to WP7 at the moment - but as everyone knows, it's less than 6 months old.
I think honest people can concede that WP7 in it's current state is actually quite good - and has the potential to best Android and iOS in the near future.
Not actually quite good
Agree with first para.
Agree completely with the 6 months old bit. Any new OS needs much longer than 6 months to really start shining. Unfortunately their competition is also getting better and better all the time.
*IF* MS can actually make something good from WP7 - which I don't agree that they have yet - then maybe Nokia can come back from the grave. Shiny doesn't automatically mean good.
I suppose Nokia's choice was 1) nice hardware with android, and 2) nice hardware with MS and their bully-boy tactics and bottomless pit of money.
At what time in the past has Windows Mobile ever had more than 20% of the market? Over the next four years what is going to be the killer feature that makes WP break through? It sounds like crap to me, neither BlackBerry, Apple or Google are exactly staying still in developing their mobile offerings - look at the painful gestation from Windows Mobile 6.7 to WP7 - I can't see any of this coming true.
Re: Historical Precedent
"At what time in the past has Windows Mobile ever had more than 20% of the market"
Erm, as this is about smartphones and, for most of the last 10+ years, MS was about the only company making smartphones that would be up until about 2007. And no, I didn't conisder UIQ or the early S60 devices to be true smartphones (and I owned lots of them).
Well I don't agree.
MS smartphones did actually look quite good - as far as having a desktop OS shoved into a handset was good. ie not good really unless you were a geek.
But as far as useability was concerned they weren't any further ahead than s60. They were all pretty crap if you ask me.
It took Apple *with their first try* to blow the whole market out of the water with a nice UI *that just worked*. It wasn't perfect, but it sure beat all the others.
To be fair though, let's give MS another 6 months to catch up and we're all going to be winners - whichever handsets we choose.
UIQ and S60 are smartphones
You may not consider UIQ or early S60 devices to be smartphones, however the rest of the world does. And anyone who had the chance to compare the embarrassing OS that was called Windows Mobile 2003 with what Symbian devices could do will certainly agree. WM was a true PITA. The interface was basically the same as on desktop Windows (yes, it's really great for phones!), and even after the 2003SE update WM was crashprone and f*cking slow. If you then compare devices like the WM 2003 phones from HTC running 200+MHz processors and compare it with what Symbian/UIQ was capable on a SE P910i with a mere 143MHz processor and 16MB of RAM then it's no surprise WM got its reputation as being crap. Early Symbian devices were definitely much more 'smart' than any Windows Mobile device of that period, and while WM got better Symbian didn't stand still, too. There is a reason why Symbian was until very recently the leading smartphone operating system.
And as to UIQ, I think it was great. Unlike S60 it was designed with touchscreen operation in mind. A 1996 P990i for example does multitasking and c'n'p throughout the whole interface, something that in 2011 Windows Phone 7 still lacks. Unfortunately Nokia as the biggest Symbian vendor decided in it's indefinite stupidity to fiddle touch operation into a GUI that was designed for keyboard operation (S60) instead of using UIQ. The result is well known, Nokia missed the touchscreen trend, and once it catched up earned lots of complaints about the lacking and illogical GUI.
Really, saying that UIQ and early S60 devices weren't smartphones shows a severe lack of knowledge in this area.
Er... P990i... when exactly?
If they had actually been available in 1996, then I think the world would be a lot more advanced by now. They were in fact 10 years later...
the only clear story
is that if you are an app developer that's not targeting Android as your primary platform right now, then you are going to lose out to those that do.
But which version of Android should I target?
And won't my hard work be pirated due to the wild west "open" nature of the Android app space?
At least targeting iOS, WinMo7 I can be sure of getting paid. Even if I do have to hand over 30% for the privilege.
Get knowledge before speaking
"And won't my hard work be pirated due to the wild west "open" nature of the Android app space?"
No. You don't have to release the source to your apps or give them away for free. No real difference between Andoid apps and others.
"Which version??" Most of the core functionality is the same. I still download apps for my G1 that work the same on my Nexus1.
Do you really believe that WinMo7 will give you a future proof platform? Every WinPhone version has changed the APIs. Of course MS are quite slow at getting their act together so WinMo7 will likely still be their latest offering in 2015.
Puhleez! It's Windows...Are you serious...50% of the Smart Phones by 2015 against Apple and Google??? Um, they should stay where they are, their venture into the SmartPhone business is way out of their league and they ARE way over their heads on this...kind of like when they pushed Windows ME and Windows Vista... Yeah, like those two were really great OS!
I know theres a lot of hatred towards microsoft, but wp7 is actually quite good to use. A lot of the problems they are having are very similar to problems the iPhone had during its release.
Don't get too hung up on predictions becuase they are just predictions. However I can see Android becoming the largest operator and then their own business model will probably strangle off their own sales due to market fragmentation and poor copyright protection
I would like to think of MS and Apple sitting at the top of the market (on opposite sides to the desktop market) while android picks up all the rest.
ie 2 decent brands for 'the average user' while android caters to the geeks and braver 'normal' people.
Nokia user to iPhone user
For me Nokia used to be the most stable of all the phone platforms around.
I suspect that if the customer is looking for the same stability they may stick with
Symbian (and not the Brand) and if they are looking for a smartphone, I will use the
one my friends are all using so that I can have the same apps.
For me, I have a Nokia E61i and moving to iPhone 4/5.
I had plenty of Nokias and none of the smartphones were what I would call 'stable' infact exactly the opposite.
All the non-smartphones were great though. Well - until they started adding 25 extra buttons all over the damn handsets which weren't needed/wanted.
You're two days early
Unless there are some seriously dodgy back-room deals, Win7 won't grab that much. Mobile!=Desktop, MS cannot manipulate that market so easily. The sheer number of players, markets and the fact that fashion plays a big part are all against them stitching up the mobile market like they have done to the desktop PC market.
And look at the traction Android is getting beyond the phone (e.g. tablets). Sure, many of these devices are under-powered and not great, but these are companies doing it off their own bat and for CHEAP! Win7 won't be able to apply loads of proprietary and anti-competitive hooks as it won't work with other people's devices.
And these companies will get better and better at making competing products, innovating and sniffing out the market.
As for those bleating about "integration", with more being consumed via the browser (and assuming the apps are written to the standards and not proprietary extension) it matters not one whit the client OS. Also, if governments follow through on their threats and go F/OSS, then the barriers to entry and proprietary APIs (the only thing keeping MS entrenched) come tumbling down. People are then free to choose of capability and I am sorry, no one in their right might picks MS based on capability.
MS is the enforced choice due to lock-in. Not a choice made with freedom.
it's all about the majority...
the majority of users go into a 'carphone warehouse' or equivalent, haven't got a clue what an Android, WP7 or whatever is - and will pick a 'Nokia'... that's how it's going to continue!
it's only us nerds that come on these sites you know! (less than 1% of user population probably!)
- Xmas Round-up Ghosts of Christmas Past: Ten tech treats from yesteryear
- Review Hey Linux newbie: If you've never had a taste, try perfect Petra ... mmm, smells like Mint 16
- Analysis Microsoft's licence riddles give Linux and pals a free ride to virtual domination
- I KNOW how to SAVE Microsoft. Give Windows 8 away for FREE – analyst
- Geek's Guide to Britain How the UK's national memory lives in a ROBOT in Kew