Predates Rumsfeld by a *long* way
Think more "The Right Stuff" as in the book by Tom Wolfe.
This sort of thinking comes from aeronautics research. A classic example was the flight that nearly wrecked one of the X15's when it carried a dummy ramjet.
The planes wings generated shock waves (known) the model generated shock waves too (known). However when the 2 shock waves *interfered* the heating rate went up c10x. This was not known and not *expected* either This lopped off the bottom X15 fin in mid flight and made the landing a virtual crash.
It really can be the things you don't know that can kill you.
That said my gut feel is that *many* of those failures were *completely* predictable given fairly simple back of the envelope calculations in terms of file sizes, numbers of records, length of retentions, time to transmit, time to retrieve etc.
An interesting case would be the Eupol idea of checking *every* entrant against their facial database. NIST estimated a searching a 1.6m face database in 1 sec on a $25k server, with a 0.3% error rate (or 4800 matches).
The database is actually about 4x that size. Now how *many* entry desks are on the border with the EU?