Apple TV: Third time unlucky, Mr Jobs

External Boxes

Eventually, there will be no need for external boxes as all the functionality will be built directly into each TV. So even less of a need for Apple TV.

Think different

You say “The Apple TV offering requires that you actually have a TV or another device to stream the video to in order to watch it, whereas any device with a screen, such as the iPad, would have been the logical and ideal client for this directly, without it going through the Apple TV.”

Is that right? Apple says that (with AirPlay) “Just tap to start playing content on your iPhone, iPad, or iPod touch, then tap again to instantly stream whatever you’re watching — or listening to — directly to Apple TV.” (http://www.apple.com/appletv/#remote)

This detail matters because of the bigger picture. Endless companies have tried to reinvent the TV but only Apple has an installed base of handheld devices with screens. The question for Apple TV is not the scope of the initial content distribution deals but how will they exploit this asset and whether it will make a difference.

With every other company, once the set top box is sorted we have a discussion about the remote: wand, buttons, mouse, magic pad, touch screen, voice, waving or whatever. With Apple, the remote IS the device that matters – the set top box arguably exists purely to mirror what’s in the user’s hand – iPod touch, iPhone or iPad. All these already have access to the internet… so there is no shortage of content. It’s just a commercial decision about how Apple can exploit this.

Apple could limit the resolution of content played outside iTunes but I doubt they’ll bother. They want the critical mass of users. Instead, over time, iTunes’s established billing system and being featured on iTunes suggested playlists (aka TV channels) will be enough of a draw for anyone with video to sell.

Everyone’s talked about making TV smarter. The genius of Apple’s approach is that it keeps TV dumb – it’s just a monitor. The smarts are in your hand.

It's at least interesting

Thinking from purely my own use, we currently subscribe to Blockbuster. For £8/month we get four Blu-Rays or DVDs. The downside to this is that we have to watch a DVD, post it back and wait for another to arrive. Also, if we don't get through our four films in the month, we still pay £8. If we get through all four too soon we either have to wait or pay extra (£2.50 I think) before they will send another. Also, for popular releases, you might have to wait a few weeks for a film to become available.

So the AppleTv looks quite interesting. I don't have to wait. I don't have to choose the film we will watch well in advance. There is no chance of scratched discs spoiling our viewing (a constant problem - particularly with old films or childrens stuff). And all for only about £2 a month more. Given that we often don't get through all our films it would probably break out about even.

However, it is only 720p. Why? Is this because they are worried that the bandwidth isn't really there in most homes to reliably stream 1080p? That would certainly be my worry. It's bloody annoying having a scratched disc. Imagine paying £100 for the box, buying your film, sitting down with your popcorn and the film stutters and pauses all the way through whilst the streaming tries to catch up with itself.

But, as I say, it is interesting and the prices look about right. As long as the content is there. I suppose if I bought one from Amazon I would be able to return it within 28 days for a full refund if the streaming didn't work or the picture was horribly compressed.

I'm typing this on my MacBook Pro

Though I could have typed it on my iPhone or my iPad. In any case, I'd be typing the same: the new Apple TV is no tangible improvement over the old one and will not succeed. It fails to completely eliminate any single other box while not really improving on what those boxes already do. The Apple TV and iBooks (which are being outsold 60:1 by Kindle books, I hear) prove that there are areas in which Apple simply fails; they're nowhere near being the unstoppable media juggernaut that content producers and consumers fear.

The best feature of the Apple TVs? They prove that people don't just buy anything Apple put out.

Streaming

My guess is that a lot of people will use the box to stream content from iTunes, whether music or video. So the issue of lacking local storage will not be a significant one - I never understood the need for local storage when I bought the earlier version. Of course if those who stream without iTunes are frustrated by delays then the device will fail, assuming they're not on slow Internet connections.

iPlayer

Until we get a set top box with BBC approved iPlayer functionality it's going to be a hard sell in the UK. iPlayer is used by millions of brits, and netflix is nothing over here. Not sure how the iPhone, iPod, iPad maker will feel about advertising AppleTV with iPlayer though.

Talk among colleagues...

...laments the missing hard drive. One problem with the UK is that bandwidth is capped in a great deal of cases. Some offer all you can eat, but only overnight.

No hard disk and no timing restriction means it is impossible to use the TV box in the UK in such a way as to download material overnight ready for viewing later.

I don't think any of the Apple TV so far has had timing options. Mind you, I haven't got such a box myself. I prefer to buy DVDs 'cause of the adverts and cutting that happens.

Netflix seems to be the winner (At least in the US)

Good analysis.

Netflix got their video streaming to the market first and they have the arrangements with the content providers, and as the bedrock internet video app everyone has to support them. I'm not interested in yet another version of pay-per-view.

I am looking right now to go over-the-top, mainly to cut off my monthly payments to Comcast, and I haven't found anything that appears to do everything. Boxee looks the most promising but seems to require a lot of horsepower. I would like the capability of streaming Netflix and Hulu, and off my home server for stuff I've bought, as well as some DVR capabilities. Still looking for the platform that checks all of those boxes (could it be Windows media center???)

Speaking of curiosity...

If you spend $0.99 to watch a TV show, does it still have commercials?

Not really losing, already lost.

The article seems to have the tenet that the new Apple TV and associated business is Apple getting it wrong and thus losing the war. However it goes on to show that the entire market is already essentially flat, and Apple's offering simply a me-too. Which rather suggests that this isn't Apple miss-stepping on its way to a loss, but Apple publicly admitting that it has already capitulated.

The expectation (well perhaps hope is closer) was that Steve, with his inside edge in the business and corporate muscle, could swing a paradigm changing deal on content pricing. The answer is clearly that he couldn't. The movie business had learned from the music experience, and had already closed ranks and set the terms. Apple is merely joining the party, not crashing it.

Hardware wise, the Apple TV is closer to an Airport Express than much else. Indeed for music it is the required device if you stream from iOS.

Slowly, slowly...

Having watched the presentation, I'm not sure that Apple was really intending aTV to be a revolutionary, game-changing, paradigm-shift.

It looks to me more that they realised that most people either store loads of media on big hard drives attached to their computers or find the whole thing a faff. Either way, making the aTV a streaming device makes more sense.

They also realised that taking out the HD and the need for lots of power meant it could be small and (relatively) cheap. Being able to stream stuff from yer iPhone/iPad is nice, too - at the moment, trying to show photos and videos on my plasma is a pain in the butt.

Yes, TVs are now integrating YouTube/iPlayer widgets - but from what I've seen they are slow as buggery and not exatly spontaneous.

So - even without the streaming downloads from iTunes - I'm still tempted by the little box, and I suspect that quite a lot of people with iPhone 4s will be too (wanting to show off their iMovies). If they can make inroads in accessing rented media as well, that's a bonus - and at present the market (in the UK anyway) is too fragmented for any clear winner to emerge.