"But perhaps the real result was predicting Uruguay as third favourites after the group stage."
Not really. Looking at the wall chat after the group stages you could predict that Uruguay had an easy run to the Semi's. It was a path that England could have taken if they had topped their group.
After the groups had finished, I predicted that Uruguay would play Brazil in the semi-final (I thought Brazil would beat Holland), and that Uruguay would get knocked out at the semi and therefore go into the 3rd place playoff. Looking at the strong teams on the other side of the draw I also predicted that Uruguay would be beaten in the playoff. I didn't need to analyse any hard data for this prediction, as a football fan I just made my prediction based on my knowledge of how good teams are.
Was is amazing is that Octopus in Germany.