Much of life on Earth gets regularly wiped out every 27 million years, according to boffins. It had been thought that this was caused by a dark star named "Nemesis", but apparently that was wrong. The next globo-extinction event is due in about 16 million years' time. A plot of extinction intensity in the past. Credit: Richard …
That's when the aliens come back for the harvest.
Lies, damn lies and statistics?
Without delving int the source data it looks to me like there are some big gaps in the 27 million year cycle. I wonder if there is some sort of underlying "approximately it was X when Y happened" that tends to bunch around the 27 mill marks? Like carbon dating having some unreliable/extra reliable spots that lumps things together. So, for example, actually the die off has been going for 20M years but we only notice it at the end.
I, for one, will welcome our new overlords in 16 million years.
God is an alien gardner
and he can't keep time, the sloppy sod.
question, how long does it take the solar system to perform an orbit of the galaxy? also while doing so, wouldn't we be passing in and out of the spiral arms (I believe they are waves of compression and do not orbit at the same rate) and therefore in and out of material which would block the sun's output significantly.
About 220-250m years
Depending on who you ask.
16 million years
That's a long time to wait before we can welcome our new species-extinguishing overlords.
What? You mean Keanu Reeves might have actually
gotten something right in a movie?
I for one welcome, etc. etc.
The end is nigh
Well, it's nearer today than yesterday.
Not new but ...
Yes, I remember 20 years ago reading about the theory. It was already proven that there was a catastrophy every 27million years.
But maybe it's a reboot-script of Earth? Initialize every 27 million years hehehe.
Perhaps reality is run by a huge, cosmic installation of Windows. 27 million years is how long it runs before it has to be rebooted.
27 days if it was windows and i think **most** people would notice that.
"usually pretty close"
For small values of "pretty close".
Statistically speaking, of course. But who am I to quibble? It sounds good, and might get the perps^Wresearchers a few quid in grant money, if none of the money-bags squints at the data with half a clue about math(s).
could be sooner we think...
Could be that 27 million years is how long it takes the average dominant species to get all curious about the mass of the higgs boson....
mine's the one with the neatly folded tin foil hat in the pocket
I for one...
"The next dotted line is due in 16 million years, but the associated extinction could be as much as 10 million years early."
Has anyone thought to consult our new cephalopod mollusk overlord (the one they call "Paul"), he might be able to give a more accurate predication.
This science sounds to me about as rigorous as some of the climate science stuff. Looks to me like they've come up with a theory that that there's a big extinction every 27 million years and then taken a very random looking graph and allowed themselves a lot of leeway to fit their theory onto it. Did they try values other than 27 million years and (with that same flexibility) see if they fitted too? Or produce random computer generated graphs and see if they could squeeze the 27 million year fit to them too.
My money's on that extinction graph being completely random and very noisy so with sufficient fudging you could fit pretty much anything on it.
Someone there should spring for a decent plotting program - as our continued existence may depend on it.
Isn't it supposed to be just after all the telephone sanitisers are got rid of?
Wait a minute, where *are* all the telephone sanitisers?
Mine's got a copy of H2G2 in the pocket.
And The Mayans ....
... are saying we're in year 26,999,998. Or there about.
If it's not Nemesis then it must be a Zombie Apocalypse!
Mines the one with the pockets full of 12 guage cartridges.
OK I think I WILL have that cup of tea after all.
Well then, just enough time to watch Lord of the rings extended edition again...
Somebody has been reading too much Asimov ?
Or even Jack McDevitt's 'Engines of God'
(great book - none of the sequels quite match it)
Dark stars... why is this kind of nonsense so common?
i.e. You can't see it, but it must be there - it's magic. As in "we can't think of a sensible or more plausible explanation and we don't know what is causing it so rather than admitting that we have no idea we'll instead make up something invisible to believe in instead".
Rings a bell in other fields of humanity as well.
other fiels of dak...
Other fields, you mean that whole dark matter, dark energy thing where Physics can't figure out 3/4 of the expected mass of the universe, so they make it up because that way their math works?
As you say having an invisible thing that influences the universe and is necessary for it's very existence and creation does sound familiar. I guess we should all ask God about it next time we talk over a pint...
Should we schedule them, then?
whats more intresting
is that chances are we are not the first inteligent life on the planet. if we could have evolved within 10 million years so could other intellegent life.
cool and mind bending stuff
Re: whats more intresting
The previous intelligent species survived the massive extinction in their cities in Antarctic and deep under the Pacific Ocean... And they are still there, waiting for the right time to take back the Earth.
Mine's the one with the Necro...*Tekeli-li* *Tekeli-li*
Oh my god, quick!!
Someone has put a graph in a scientific paper.
We don't really understand it, and the model just says we are all going to die, but we don't understand the model, or know if it is right.
Quick!! - rush in lots of "Nemesis" taxes. We must be seen to do something. Also enough worrying about this will make people forget about section 44...
Everyone knows what this really is.
Them there aliens set their (highly inaccurate) watches and make sure that no life gets to intelligent on this little planet in an out of the way solar system.
Tin foil hats anyone? Though I doubt it will help with the rain of comets / asteroids.
It's "The Coming of the Great White Handkerchief".
Another statistician writes ...
The graph quite clearly demonstrates that extinctions are dying out ....
I doubt any statistician was involved in the publication of this factoid. A statistician would have pointed out the existence of the Poisson process.
Anyone could generate a similar theory by conjuring a randomised graph and picking out regular-ish peaks. There's nothing 'regular' or 'ordered' about those peaks.
All it proves is that extinctions occur, at a varying scale (which we knew anyway), sometimes correlating to the theory of 'mass extinctions' (which is statistically logical anyway).
Related to this article: This paranoia-fuelled theory that the BP Gulf disaster will trigger a 'world-killing' methane bubble event. Both theories are based in truth, but utilise dubious physics and statistics to reach incredible conclusions.
I just wanted to say that I love that word.
16,000,000 years away?
But with a +/- of 10,000,000 years, we could be as little as 6,000,000 years away from extinction - OMG won't someone please think of the great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren!
Great, great, great, etc...
Should I take it from the number of generations you mention that you and all your descendants are planning to have your children at the ripe old age of 47,244 (on average)?
Not if humans have anything to do with it...
"The next globo-extinction event is due in about 16 million years' time"
I'm sure if humanity puts its collective willpower together we can do much better than that. The initial signs are promising.
Use Fourier Analysis!
Take the power spectrum of the sequence. If there's really a 27-My periodicity, there will be a spike at that frequency in the spectrum. If there isn't, thre won't be. If it's not an exact 27My cycle the peak will be broadened and not as high, but still above background noise. If it's wishful thinking, there will be no noticeable peak.
I have to express doubt as to how accurately they can date extinction events hundreds of My past. It would oh so easy to allow belief in an extinction cycle to "close up" the error bars. 270My +/- 8My, rather than 270My +/- 14My, say. (The latter could not significantly support the theory, because the deviation covers an entire cycle).
... to look at Fig. 1 in the freely available pdf linked in the article.
2, just too sweet
I can't wait for 16 million years.
I transferred my 401k (retirement account) to this nice Hedge Fund Manager at Goldman-Sachs. He said I get all my money back PLUS INTEREST in two million years and I'll still have 14 million years to spend it.
Out of the twenty 27-million-year markers shown on the graph, about 8 (depending on how fussy you are) don't really have an associated mass-extinction. Two of the circles appear to be (fairly) precisely in the middle of two of the markers, and two markers have a pair of extinctions.
There is no way I can see 18 occurrences no matter how generous I am. And how anybody can describe this as "regularity of the extinctions" is beyond me - looks like complete rubbish.
27 million years to go....
....Only problem is they should have told us 26,999,999 years and 364 days ago... Goodnight everyone and Waiter, Check Please!!!!
Geology tells us that the Earth's Poles can move about and actually swap position over long periods of time. This would remove the Earth's vital magnetosphere, which protects all life from deadly radiation emanating from our Sun.
Recent studies have confirmed that the Poles have been moving over the last few years although many of them have gone back home again having been disenchanted by crappy weather and poor quality lager.
Okay assuming your first paragraph wasn't a joke
Do you mean magnetic poles or geographic poles? Magnetic poles are ephemeral not only waxing and waning, but moving all the time. Yes they can degrade to such a point that the Earth is exposed to the solar wind, but these periods don't seem to coincide with mass extinctions.
The geographic poles wobble, but like the Weebles they don't fall down since they are more or less locked by the Moon.
Poles flip far too often
THe Earth's magnetic poles flip a lot more frequently than every 27My. Every few tens of thousands of years, if I remember right. Same sort of frequency as supervolcanoes. There's a fossil magnetic record in the form of the direction of magnetisation of the ocean floor, which is spreading at cm/year (10s of km per My) outwards from its molten source at the mid-ocean ridges.
During a flip the atmosphere would continue to provide protection from radiation. There isn't a major radiation problem at the poles, is there? Just pretty auroras in the sky. What will be lost during a flip, is the protection of the Earth's atmosphere *from* solar radiation. For geological values of "short" and "long", there's a short-term issue with global warming, and a long-term issue of the Earth's atmosphere being stripped off by the solar wind. "Long" hasn't happened yet - we still have an atmosphere. But one day, the earth's core will freeze and our atmoshere will go the way of Mars's. That's if the sun doesn't go red giant first, which it probably will.
27 million years? I've got a plumber booked then!
Bad luck, Sam
Now if it was the Cable Guy ...
they normally say 27 million years plus/minus 2 million years.
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