Tablets look set to displace the netbook, if figures from market watcher DisplaySearch are to be believed. DisplaySearch tracks all mobile computer sales, from netbooks through ultra-portables right the way up to desktop replacement behemoths. The telling figures are netbooks' share of the overall mobile computer market. …
The netbook drop is not ballpark the same as the Ipad's growth. In addition to this, I'm going to be quite blunt. The fact netbook sales are holding up given the lack of spec changes, and the rising price is actually amazing.
They don't deserve to maintain sales at all. The new Atoms remain largely junk, and only longer battery life and slight hard drives size changes have taken place apart from ION units.
No netbook using Intel atom with GM based gfx is worth more than £150, and ION based units are not worth more than £199, assuming we talk about current specs. The £299 and similar units are a joke.
A very light duty device.
If you don't type much and aren't bothered by not being able to access flash websites, I could see how this (iPad) could be a very basic sort of netbook replacement. A lot of what netbooks are supposed to be used for is basic web browsing and whatnot. For that, it (iPad) is somewhat better than a netbook. But all sorts of basic things are missing.
OTOH, you still need some sort of real PC to plug your iPad into... '-p
I would never post an El Reg comment on an iPad. Been a touch typist for too long...
I'm also a touch typist, and I don't have an iPad, but I tried one of an office colleague who has one. At first I rested my fingers on "home row" but quickly realised that's a big no-no as it captured all my touches. But once I figured that basic difference out, typing on it was much, much easier than I imagined, and without errors even. It really surprised me.
Still if I end up getting an iPad I'll get a separate keyboard for those occasions when you're doing lots of typing and not just surfing around.
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A very basic notebook replacement?
What a basic replacement, for double the price, how the F*** did you come to that conclusion?
I didn't say it wasn't pricey.
> A very basic notebook replacement?
> What a basic replacement, for double the price, how the F*** did you come to that conclusion?
Direct observation and first hand experience.
Perhaps you've heard of those.
Ironically, the favorite "app" is from Cydia.
I tried the Ipad at Worst-Buy here in the USA. It really felt just like my I-Touch (sic) except it was MUCH easier. I would PREFER the expensive but beautiful Apple keyboard for extensive typing.
Yes, I miss Flash also but I think eventually something will give way on that front, but it won't be Steve bending over.
So in other words
The industry pundits (including every other comment or article on the Register) got it wrong, and Apple didn't.
What a shocker.
Note the caption "Q2 2010 figures are forecasts" so the vast majority of this conclusion is based on what are essentially made up figures. There is also no proven relationship here, just two sets of figures that correlate and a theory that fits said correlation. Whatever rationale you use including "if this wasn't the case the total would increase" is an assumption until you can demonstrate evidence of an actual causal link. There are other possible explanations for a dip in Netbook sales including market saturation or a seasonal variation. It's worth a note that you conveniently instruct readers to ignore similar dip during the same quarter last year because it doesn't fit your own opinion. It's bad mathematics, bad analysis and specious reasoning all rolled into one tenuous editorialisation.
Last year's (ignored) dip was more pronounced than this year's, even though there were no iPad sales to explain it. So netbook sales are actually steadier now in spite of encroaching tablet sales.
Its wonderful to see the new spirit of openness in the industry which has all these netbook manufactures submitting their sales figures to NPD several months in advance of their normal publication. That is how they compile this data isn't it?
It's new, this stuff usually happens. Let's see the graph month on month when the heavy advertising subsides and people realise they can't really work on the iFad.
give it time
It's a bit too early as yet to say whether the ipad is a success. At the moment, everyone's riding the "woo, pretty!" wave. The novelty will take a couple more months to wear off and then we'll see if the ipad's shortcomings when compared to netbooks prove terminal or not.
I suspect it'll fail in the long term. Pure media consumers (whoever they are) will soon grow tired of only consuming media available through Apple channels, and those using it for "surfing" will be driven nuts by the lack of flash in time. It'll eventually become apparent to ipad users that they're very much second-class citizens when it comes to use cases, and this will be what kills the device.
What exactly are your criteria for success? Obviously you have different ones. I for example would declare a product a success for breaking the record for speed to $1B revenue. Also, 2M in the first couple of months has to count for something.
Even if you don't agree with that, the sheer fact that the iPad is spawning a whole new generations of devices from the competition, that has to count for something. I'm sure HP and Dell and other manufacturers rushing to release their iPad-like offering aren't thinking to themselves, "gosh, I want to compete with a dud."
Your analysis I don't agree with at all and I'm not alone in this position.
Hold on a second…
Everyone was quick to line up and say it was a failure without giving it time, so presumably that was ok?
What about all of the shortcomings of a netbook compared to iPad? Or are we not allowed to talk about these?
Netbooks rarely have a specialist UI designed for the screen (credit Ubuntu for their work with the Netbook remix, but unfortunately most netbooks (90+%) ship with WIndows). Also, because Netbooks run PC software, none of it is optimised for the hardware, so they struggle with more powerful tasks, whereas all the iPad software is all designed with hardware capabilities (and limits) in mind.
You can put any old media you like on iPad (rip a CD, use Handbrake) so the first point about “pure media consumers only consuming media available through Apple channels” is null and void.
Safari and other mobile browsers adapt and scale full size web pages to work well on the smaller display. On top of this sites are being designed for the multi-touch experience and screen dimensions of iPad and forthcoming tablets.
This suggests going forward that iPad and tablet users will get a far better web experience than those on netbooks, where users typically have to view sites designed with much higher resolutions in mind through a small viewport, resulting in lots of horizontal and vertical scrolling. Not to mention that scrolling is much more of a hassle on a netbook, because instead of manipulating a large, capacitive Multi-touch display directly your stuck with a finicky trackpad and tiny arrow keys.
Makes you think which users will be the second-class citizens.
Aps & iTunes maybe but the build of the experience is the web and that is open. I use my iPad on BBC iPlayer and Catchup TV. Plus there are plenty more where that came from.
But hey the plural of anecdote is not data so we will have to see how the audience at large play out.
CD vs DVD not comparable at all.
> You can put any old media you like on iPad (rip a CD, use Handbrake) so
> the first point about “pure media consumers only consuming media available
> through Apple channels” is null and void.
...except using Handbrake requires you to cater to the device. This is a consideration
that many novice consumer probably aren't aware of. The iPad is NOT a general
purpose video device. It is very restricted in what it can play.
The fact that you've just burdened the end user with even knowing what Handbrake even
is means that you've broken that "magical experience" that iTunes is supposed to create.
The lack of a "push this button for ipad conversions" in Handbrake will likely be a problem
even if you assume that your average grandma can get to that point.
The relative restrictiveness of an iThing compared to something like an Archos is one of
my biggest pet peeves about the devices.
When you need to use a relatively underpowered Mac to sort out this stuff, it becomes
more meaningful. "features" and "specs" might not be understandable by your average
consumer but they have real consequences.
Then there is the common attitude amongst the fanboys that if it didn't come from the Apple
store and if it's not in a format that caters to an Apple device then you must be a pirate.
"Clearly, then, the iPad isn't only being bought by fanboys."
Oddly the only one I've seen "in the wild" was at a restaurant a few hours north of LA on I5. It was an older couple with the iPad plonked in front of the lady on it's folding case cum stand. Mind you it appeared to be on the home screen and I didn't ever see her touch it. It reminded me of how some women leave their Prada/Coach/Whatsitthisweek handbag in a most conspicuous place to show the other ladies how high maint^W^W "cool" they are.
Nah, not a fail
You don't need "Apple channels" to consume media on an iPad. You can stream music from last.fm (for free), you can stream video from a home server using AirVideo which also gives a one-click conversion that will add the MP4 file to iTunes to synchronise with the onboard disk. With lots more to come.
There are more apps than I can count that allow files to be directly loaded on to the iPad and used by different applications etc.
Lack of Flash .. that's not a real criticism! Sure it might upset some people who want to play farmville on Farcebook .. no wait there's an App for that coming real soon including "your crops are withering" push notifications. It does mean I can't watch BBC News 24 in a little window on the BBC website ... Oh wait, no I can stream it (even over 3G) from ipad.tvcatchup.com in excellent h.264. Finally I really miss the flash ads like I miss trepanning!
The iPad is a fail just like ipod and iPhone have been a dreadful fail 8-)
There are more apps than I can count that allow files to be directly loaded on to the iPad and used by different applications etc.
This is VERY misleading.
Such apps will be VERY selective in what they allow you to transfer.
The iphone/ipad is by no stretch of the imagination a general purpose device in this respect. You're MUCH better off just jailbreaking the thing and installing an ssh server.
Bit of a Non-story
Apart from for the must-have-the-latest mob, netbooks and tablets have almost nothing in common. Netbooks are probably reaching their saturation point by now so I would expect sales to drop to a 'maintenance' level pretty soon.
The graphs are meaningless from a relationship point of view. You could add in one showing the sale of cucumbers for just as much relevance.
As the iPad is NOT a netbook replacement, but is supposed to be a revolutionary new device that sits between the netbook and the laptop, we really need to include laptop sales figures here. From Q1 to Q2:
Netbook sales: - 0.5 Million
iPad sales: + 2.4 Million
Laptop sales: + 8 Million
However, the figures that actually matter are the year-on-year ones. These are:
Netbook sales: + 2.1 Million
iPad sales: + 3.7 Million
Laptop sales: + 21 Million
So, really we need to look at the figures in 9 months time to see what's really going on. Apple have secured a chunk of the portable computer market, but the growth of this sector is high and the iPad will need to be selling around 6 million per quarter this time next year to be maintaining their new market share.
Your logic has no place here.
This is a funfilled fanboy fist fight for futifle friviolous fame.
Or in other words, have some popcorn and a shot evertime someone finds a new way to say "mine's bigger."
As claimed by Jobs and others, the iPad *is* intended to replace netbooks. It fits the gap between smartphone and (full blown) laptop, quite literally in Apple's lineup, and is the company's answer to the stripped down cheap laptop that everyone else has been selling in that space - aka the netbook.
Wintel have done their darndest to hobble the netbook market since the original eepc was released. Artificial limitations on RAM and screens along with ballooning hardware requirements needed to support Windows instead of Linux have turned NBs from what were once cheap and cheerful lightweight 'net access devices into overpriced and underpowered mini laptops.
Now apple has come out and created a not quite as cheap but even more cheerful lightweight 'net access device and all the people that could no longer purchase such a device come out of the woodwork and give apple their business instead. Add to that the fanboi's and mom & pop market and you have the makings of a successful product.
I for one expect the trend to continue as more apps are released for the ipad at least until ARM based android/chrome devices become available*.
* If that ever happens of course.
Fail for Wintel and their craven OEM "partners"
Microsoft crippled the Netbook with the crippled Windows 7 basic. So naturally the better option is either a full featured notebook for the same $500 or a WiFi iPad. Spend the same and get less functionality just to have something with the Apple Logo on it? I think not.