Re: Late 2010?
You say "Then I guess Natal is going to wipe it off the face of the planet."
Why is it? I have a PS3 and the arrival of Natal will make me dump that and buy an Xbox.
I'm no expert on Natal (I had to look it up, after wodnering why you mentioned an area of South Africa), but, I can see some serious drawbacks with it.
Whilst it will work for sports such as boxing and possibly tennis, there are so many where it won't work as well as the Wii controllers and probably the PS3. I presume the Natal sensors are not so sensitive that they could identify a slight movement of a finger? That is, after all, how the Wii knows you wish to release the ball in ten-pin bowling, by releasing a button. Can it sense the slight twist of the wrist to spin the ball? Also, releasing a button tells the Wii to release the bowstring when playing archery. Can Natal really pick up moving fingers on a hand that is hidden behind your head and leading hand? Certainly the examples shown in Xbox video are all very basic looking games that require little more than moving arms to play. And voice recognition? Have Microsoft sussed a technology that has evaded specialist companies for years? Voice recognition software takes hours to train to a specific voice before it becomes anywhere near reliable. Oh, and the racing game? What sort of racing car doesn't need a brake and accelerator?
So, no, Natal won't wipe the floor with the PS3, or Wii, there are far too many instances in any game where some sort of controller is needed in order to enrich the game.