back to article Tory landslide inevitable - maybe

Get ready for a Tory landslide. That is the prediction of a new and sophisticated electoral forecasting tool, created by business modelling company, Resolver Systems. One recent poll places Tories on 39.5 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and Lib Dems on 21 per cent. Traditional forecasters predict results ranging from a …

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Megaphone

In a true democracy ...

... the "Power" rests with the electorate. Please outlaw all media references to this party or that party being "in power" (see earlier statement). Please DO remind the majority / coalition party(s) that THEY ARE ELECTED INTO OFFICE ! and that their duties include accomodating the will of the people who elected them to that office. Then make it mandatory for everyone over 18 to vote, have a proportional system and turn the Palace of Wetminster into a museum. Build a brand new, modern facility for government (there's plenty of skilled construction labour available right now) and get rid of the knee-britches, pomp and circumstance. THEN the peeps what live here might take a healthy interest in what government / politics are for.

yours sincerely Scott.

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Stop

.. oh, and I forgot ....

include sufficient modest, bed-sit accomodation in the new building, rather than this "second-homes" garbage !

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Thumb Up

I agree, and would add

Make them legally obliged to deliver on their manifesto, and if they don't, they forfeit the chance of running in the next election.

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Badgers

I would also add...

Make lying in a public statement akin to perjury, so that ther is a slight incentive for politicians to become more honest. This would also remove the disadvantage one would gain from telling the truth whilst 'the other man' is lying through his/her teeth to get elected.

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Boffin

Kinda but no

The resolver model is based around a specific part of the ICM survey. ICM ask respondents how the voted in the last election, and then how they will vote in the next election. This gives a much better idea of how voters move in between parties from election to election, and therefore provides a much better template on a per constituency basis for analysing the potential result.

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@Beelzeebub

Or snake their way out by saying it's not a constitution, it's now a treaty, we only promised a vote on a constitution.

I can't believe we don't have a way to pass a vote of no confidence on an entire government, at any time. That would keep them on their toes.

As for needing software to predict Mr Broon, our unelected president, will be going to talk to the boys and asking them for a new cushy job after the next election... isn't that like using a Cray to answer 2+2?

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Flame

I also agree...

...and would like to further add that the only way I will be able to cope with the next election is if the Tory party are somehow eradicated in an 'accidental' Tory party conference incident.

The desire to punch David Cameron and George Osborn in their smug narrow grins is too much to handle!!

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Alert

Outrageous - poor people can vote to????

> Electoral geography creates a Labour bias within our electoral system.

My god - you're telling me that a poor persons vote counts the same as mine?

Disgraceful I say - surely some system based on the size of my house/ number of cars I own/foreign holidays I take/newspaper I read would be fairer and more equitable?

And while we are at it - the capability for us to vote the lot out at a moments notice on the whim of the Daily Mail as well - that way we can have the populist mob rule we've always dreamed of!

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Paris Hilton

yes, but

I'm all for mandatory voting but the ballot paper needs to then include "none of the above" as an option.

If a constituency's "NOTA" then gained a majority, they shouldn't send a representative to the Commons. This would then incentivize the would be politicians to actually engage with their local electorate. Worst case we save a pot of brass on politician's wages and expenses. Best case we get politicians who actually give a fig about their constituency.

Paris, 'cos she'd get my vote.

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Bronze badge

Are you actually going to vote?

One issue with these opinion polls is that many people who say they are going to vote won't actually bother on the day. Quite how you come up with a questionnaire that will irradicate these respondents I don't know, but it could be an important issue.

I read somewhere many years ago that labour supporters were less likely to turn out in the event of inclement weather. Don't know if that's still the case.

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Pirate

Most Tory supporters

seem to be smug gits who think that they'll never be unemployed or ill or poor or old. If any aren't then they must be just delusional, or like being ordered about by posh people(as many working class people do have inferiority complexes the size of Birmingham and think they deserve it)

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Let's come to the point

Polls should be banned during the 2 weeks before an election. Sorted.

The problem of fraudulent postal votes post-Glenrothes remains, and no computer model can take that into account.

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Anonymous Coward

i'd like to see

percentages shown as percentage of registered voters, not percentage of votes. it will show the real confidence we have in the government if instead of a 30% vote for labour it comes out at less than 10%

If we want real democracy, all those election forms need an extra tick box for none of the above, and that actually needs to be taken account of.

<general electoral rant>

Anone going on about mr Brown being unelected, can shut right up, he *was* elected, in exactly the same way that *all* prime ministers are elected. He was elected by his party. Unlike the American presidential system, you only vote to put a party in power, whoever actually leads that party is irrelevent, and the public has never had any control over it.

In fact you don't even vote for that, you just vote for your local counciller, which means that, depending on where you live, your vote may be completely pointless. Rendering the whole process a bit of a joke.

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Coat

Oh get a grip.

We're going to get a Tory government either way, and at least the official Tory Party is slighter left wing than the "Tory Plan B".

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Anonymous Coward

Labour will win. Any fule no that

Labour will win the next general election, just by a reduced majority. People don't like them but they Cameron isn't thought of by most people as man enough for the job. No one thinks anything nitable will change under him. So why rock the boat, they may as well begrudgingly stay as they are.

But because people are so unhappy, they'll moan all the way to the voting booth, swaring blind they've had enough of brown and will vote Conservative... until they're alone in there and think 'oh what's the pioint, they're all the same' and actually vote Labour.

This will be Labour's '1992'. Followed, 4 years later by a Conservative landslide with 'Dave' being seen as the biggest messianic figure who can do no wrong since... um.... that Tony Wotsit fellow.

And when Cameron does get in, look out for a load of Cabinet ministers and high profile figures with names like James, Henry, Edward and Victoria. Then, when the novelty's worn off, everyone will moan at all the spin, saying that he stooped as low as to hire people because they had the right names rather than policies, just as Blair's first Cabinet resembled the bridge crew of Star Trek the Next Generation!

Vote Loony, you know it makes no sense!

Either.

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IT Angle

@beelzebub

Nice idea, making lying illegal. Remind yourself of that when the kids' hamster dies or you forget the flowers on monthers' day :-)

Meanwhile, politicians actually need to lie sometimes. "All our ships were sunk, we're all doomed" is somehow less likely to improve morale than "the enemy gained a minor tactical victory but we're fighting back".

And then there's the problem of defining what a lie is: "I intend to stamp out child poverty" isn't a guarantee that the speaker will succeed, and who's to say he didn't genuinely hope to do it?

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Vote Local

I'll be voting for the best candidate to represent me, not Labour since it's Meg Hitler (deliberate misspelling).

I could never bring myself to vote Tory, I'd rather spoil my ballot.

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Does it really matter?

Regardless of who wins, the wrong lizard will still get in.

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Grenade

Stuff the Polls and Swings.

Why should people take it for granted that the next Government is going to be a Tory one? Just because part of the daily media are in Tory overdrive to annoy the hell out of our Unelected Prime Minister, does not mean a damn thing at this point in time. No matter how much talk there is about the Tories, it does not equate to a Tory victory come next May/June (assuming that's a good time for the country to go to the polls).

Furthermore, the pollsters should keep a beady eye on those pesky Liberals for keeping quiet at the right times, and allowing the wart hogs of Cameron, Osborne and co. to whore themselves out to the media with very little in the way of sound, solid and convincing policies to win over the electorate.

In addition, as a nation we've already experienced just many years of bleakness with Tories running this country, and for them to be replaced with Blairs Nu-Cheka. People don't simply forget about the hardships and sufferings endured under the previous Tory Governments, and therefore possibly less likely to forgive and vote for them, and it's possible these same people put their faith into Blairs Nu-(cheka)-Labour, only to find that they have been defecated on from a great height once more. It's Time For A Change.

Either give the Liberals (who may do better, if they were to form an alliance with the Green Party) a chance (they cannot be any worse than what we have now or had previously, can they?)

Or lets go with a hung parliament, that way all parties become responsible and held to account, and if they mess up, then perhaps we the people can have serious reform brought about to this draconian way of being Governed.

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Alien

This sums it up

When a previous election wa sbeing held , a friend of mine was disturbed by the tory party people knocking on the door and cheerily asking

"Are you going to be voting tory in this election?"

My friend noticing the labou people were doing the other side of the road , pointed to them and replied:

"No, I'm going to be voting for that other bunch of lying cheating bastards"

Gawd knows what the aliens make of us

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Anonymous Coward

Do Resolver Systems have any predictions to make

about the defecatory habits of ursine mammals?

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Unpopularity Contest

Most people don't want a Tory government , but most people also don't want Brown in power.

I still think that all Labour needs to do to win the next election is jettison Brown and tune down their authoritarian tendencies a bit.

If Brown stays, the Tories will win.

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Big Brother

@In a true democracy

There hasn't been a true democracy since the fall of Athens.

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Alert

The defecation habits of ursine mammals...

Occur primarily in arboreal areas.

There really is very little choice out there. Gorgon Broon and his bunch of Fascists, David "Tony B Liar lite" Cameroon, or the Limp Dems

God we're screwed (!)

Me? I will vote, but not for the current incumbents, and I can't bear the thought of voting tory. I have too long a memory for that.

I suppose I'll either vote Lib Dems, or some other bunch.

Ideally a hung parliament would be good. Its at times like this, that the local MP's actually have a bit more influence, so can be "Persuaded" to do the right thing.

I don't know where I read it, but it feels like a truism, that parties don't win elections. The opposition just loses them

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Megaphone

@Mycho

So you're in favour for repealing votes for women and slaves?

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Grenade

Change the system

to MMP (Mixed Member Proportional ) system like down here in New Zealand.

It is fairly effective in preventing little Hitlers from doing what they like.

The party with the most votes gets to form a Government but they need support from others to get acts passed in Parliament .

It must be good because our present Prime Minister doesn't like it.

The icon is what most politicians deserve.

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Alien

Summing it up for IT in a Brain Washing Sentence

"Gawd knows what the aliens make of us" .... By Boris the Cockroach Posted Monday 27th July 2009 16:47 GMT

Boris,

Surely, they would realise the Default Stupidity in Man and as a Kindness would Sublimely Take Over Critical Strategic Communications InfraStructures with IT and Media Controls which Beta Manage Human Perceptions and Present an Alternative ProgramMING.

Oh, and they would most probably also PreAdvise you of the Facility Transparently on a Global InterNetworking Communications Web, in Order to Search for the Best of any Present and Prescient Higher Human Intelligence to Partner and Drive the Stealthy Renegade Renaissance Train, Virtually, from an Untouchable Space of their Creation. And there would be countless numbers of such Intangibles 42 Guarantee Unqualified Success.

And Dogged Disbelief in the Possibilty Ensures ITs Currency and Presence, even whenever it is Posited and Shared to be an Inevitable Future Certain Probability too, and Cloak IT with Cloudy Layers of Cover, in Order to Allow and accomodarte the Chaos Element to Play its Bespoke Part, Measured and Made to Order, for Major and Minor Roles/Virtual Bit Parts in what would be, undoubtedly, something more than just a Global Crisis one could choose to Ignore and Deny for even a Plausible Denial is Real Evidence of the Virtual Reality Actuality.

And you have been also advised AIdDirectly via Closed MIChannels/VPNChunnels too, [and here is a Convenient Identification Marker of one such Who/What/Where/When Contact for Investigative Inquiry with the following Time/Date/Location Information Stream ..... 0915200907232https://www.mi5.gov.uk/output/contact-form.html ..... Reporting/Importing/Exporting Suspected Threats/Suspect Novel Threads, Subjectively ....... and also BetaTesting Assured AIR&dDevelopments with Advanced IntelAIgent Virtual Defence Systems for the Silent Operation of Highly Unconventional and Irregular Asymmetric Attack Theatres of ........ well I do believe it is Masked Conventionally in such Ethereal Phrases as Play with Human Consciousness in the Great Game and New World Orders, to name but Two ..... but Any and All would be/are just Simple Advanced ProgramMING of Binary Numbers for Digital Signal Manipulation/Realisation of Future Actuality.

"International actors in the current era have awakened to the potential of such “unconventional”

methods for compelling an enemy to do one’s will. Avoiding the advantages of U.S. military power, these international actors seek to erode the ability of the United States to employ that comparative advantage. Using the other instruments of power—especially the informational — they seek to employ what is variably referred to as “irregular,” “asymmetric,” or “unrestricted” warfare. Even when violence is joined, direct methods are generally avoided for the classic techniques of guerrilla warfare, terrorism, sabotage,subversion, and insurgency." .... http://wikileaks.org/leak/us-fm3-05-130.pdf

And you can be assured that things have moved on quite considerably InterNetionally from that Paranoid MilitaristIQ View ..... and is moving on at a quite extraordinary pace, which by such IntelAIgent Design, results with Most Unaware and in its Wake as IT Consolidates and Exercises Leading Control Positions in AI and an Alienating Semantic Web of Programs/Future Projects.

But that is Progress …. via ITs Confusion at a Higher Level Portal?

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@ AC 14:35

You don't vote to put a party in power, you vote for the MP who will do the best for your constituency.

At least, thats what should happen, but thanks to the deplorable media whore-ish-ness that now goes on, everyone thinks they are voting for the PM, not their MP.

Equally, voting for my councillor is very different to voting for my MP and different again from voting for my MEP (and in my case, since i'm in Scotland, my MSP).

And I really wish people would stop saying that the Labour party are fascists, they are socialists through-and-through. Some people need to read up on the specific differences between socialist and fascist (and possibly take into account that some of the Nu Labour core are ex-communist party members).

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Heart

amanfromMars....

....for Prime Minister!

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Is it amanfromMars

who writes all the user manuals?

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