EMC has lengthened the offer period for its $30/share bid for Data Domain by 11 days, after attracting a derisory level of acceptance for the bid. It says this is to provide "additional time to satisfy closing conditions". EMC chairman and CEO Joe Tucci referred to the Federal Trade Commission's regulatory review of the bid in …
Do the sums make sense?
Why is it that even a technical site keeps presenting this as a Pi**ing contest. If you want to base this on financial might, maybe a few sums might help. I am not any sort of an analyst, but a little digging brought me to these conclusions.
Netapp bought 28% of Data Domain around $25 when they made the deal. Make the effort and check the trades and SEC submissions.
If NetApp win now they pay $30 in shares and stock for the remaining 72%
This gives an average cost of purchase around $29
If EMC wins they give NetApp $57M and a profit on those 28% shares - approximately a total win of $150M. They also get control of a company under hostile conditions which they have to seriously work on to recoup their investment - or it will devalue rapidly.
If EMC raises their bid NetApp can walk away with a larger profit. if NetApp matches at say $33 then NetApp's average cost is still below $30.
Despite all the bluster - and I believe the financial markets have been desperately hoping EMC will be foolish enough to keep bidding - The current price for Data Domain means whoever buys it needs to work very hard to profit from the deal,
EMC has achieved it's primary objective of ensuring NetApp does not slip away with Data Domain on the cheap. EMC however was not prepared for Data Domain's strong rubbishing of their offer, or NetApp's smart move in covering their purchase by buying the critcal 28% of Data Domain on the open market. Problem EMC now has is Brand and reputation damage, but they are still finacially astute, and can keep presuring in the market.
I would recomend all shareholders who wish to maximise their short term profit to exit in the overpriced $33 market now before it becomes clear that the dogs are not going to enter a unprofitable and damaging (Mutually Assured Destruction) fight which would make either a soft takeover target.
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